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[Andresvmb]

Vote Count 1.16 FINAL

Cook (7):Andresvmb, Jim Hawkins, DkKoba, nopointinactingup, Flea The Magician, RLotus, Prince Zuko

Andresvmb (2):

geraintm, Egix96

nopointinactingup (2):

tris, Cook

Egix96 (1):

Facebones

geraintm (1):

bugspray

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 votes to eliminate

An elimination has occurred

Day One Ends In:

(expired on 2021-01-20 07:44:00)

And with this vote count to end D1, you can maybe say {Egix, bugspray} or even {Flea, bugspray} is the Team I wouldn’t be completely floored by that. I’m not sure that the wagon on Cook is completely pure, but I do think that it’s difficult to argue for starting with Flea. Like I don’t love that as the place to start with executions post Koba who so aggressively defended Cook but then ended there. And I think Koba had Flea as Town and given how the Polaris wagon developed D1 I’m not so sure that it makes sense at all for us to focus too intently there just yet.

[Andresvmb]

Right now I want VOTE: Gerain to do much much more.

And like this is Flea’s vote with Koba under significant pressure.

[Andresvmb]

That was a question, how can I "misrep" someone without making a statement. And what are you on about anyways, mason vig?? If you wanna fight somebody go elsewhere this is a civil game.

whatever i'll just sheep the mason and hope it goes well VOTE: gamma emerald l-1

And outside of your vote nopoint, this is the key vote to put Gamma over the edge over geraintm yesterday. Flea never moved from geraintm as far as I can tell. So yeah no I won’t be voting Flea I think that’s wrong.

[Andresvmb]

If geraintm flips Town at some point yeah maybe something to think about. But with what we have, Flea doesn’t quite work for me.

[Andresvmb]

If Gerain was scum, he would have NKed me since he knows I have a tendency to tunnel based on his experiences with me and he would have expected me gun for him today since he was my second scum-read yesterday.

I don’t know how true this is. You’re the obvious NK. I also think that’s why the Scum avoided it. They haven’t gotten any Town PRs outside of one Mason so in my opinion they’re afraid to slip.

[Andresvmb]

I'd like to point out that Andre and Bugspray are the only remaining players who were onboard the Jim wagon, the alternate wagon to Cook on D1. The other 2 players on the Jim wagon (Tris and DjKobra) both flipped town. I highly doubt Cook was the only mafia member voting for Jim, and incidentally both Andre and Bugspray were also on the DjKobra wagon as well as mine. PoE says one of them must be scum.

Posts like that do give me the impression he is really trying to solve

I think people get too much credit generally for putting posts out there that appear like they’re trying to solve. Coming up with seemingly okay excuses that lead to the wrong outcome is just basic Scum play. You can make any argument for anyone purely based on how some of the votes moved. I’m getting shaded here with bugspray for my vote on Jim. But you know, the actual vote that counted? The one for Cook? And those arguments pushing there aggressively and getting Koba on board? That doesn’t count for anything?

So you need to look a little deeper than just saying oh this appears to be game solving so it’s probably Town. I don’t think so.

[Andresvmb]

And like it’s also an entirely speculative argument. I mean I know my alignment. So fundamentally what Facebones is arguing is that out of 4 players that engaged in a course of action, maybe one is Scum. 2 flipped Town actually, and I know I’m Town. So it would have to exactly be bugspray. So the argument itself is actually bad. I could say well out of everyone that voted for Cook after say the fourth vote or so that made it almost seem like a done deal and really drove it, there’s gotta be one Scum. Okay, but that’s just as much of a valid argument as this if you think about it, and it really isn’t great.

[Andresvmb]

Like look at the wagon composition on Cook. Koba and Zuko were Town, nopoint is claiming Mason unCC’ed, Jim was the Counterwagon to the Scum Roleblocker, and I know I’m Town. That leaves RLotus, and Flea. It would be wild if both Flea and RLotus are Scum. So where I want to look is most definitely outside of the Cook wagon, and on the Koba wagon. The combination of both is a decent place to start.

[Andresvmb]

Town:
No Point
Flea
RLotus

Null:
Tris
Jim
Geraintim

Scum:
DkKobra
Andre
Egix

I find it interesting that you have both andre and koba in your scum pile. could you tell me more about that?

I just don’t think Tris was that off about things, and so I think that’s why they’re dead. Like this questioning was so on point. I also think Facebones deserves tremendous pressure. I also do think they shouldn’t be taken off consideration today.

[nopointinactingup]

Like look at the wagon composition on Cook. Koba and Zuko were Town, nopoint is claiming Mason unCC’ed, Jim was the Counterwagon to the Scum Roleblocker, and I know I’m Town. That leaves RLotus, and Flea. It would be wild if both Flea and RLotus are Scum. So where I want to look is most definitely outside of the Cook wagon, and on the Koba wagon. The combination of both is a decent place to start.

The issue with that is that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Cook's wagon. The Koba wagon, on the other hand, has a confirmed town mad-gunning for Koba so scum could easily have hidden behind vanity wagons while defending Koba because the Koba lynch seemed almost a foregone conclusion. They don't have to push for anything too aggressively and that's exactly what I saw Flea doing there.

[Andresvmb]

list of ppl to lim that will win the game IMO ->

bugspray -> facebones -> geratim -> andres(if still alive)/tris

You can say whatever about Koba, but I also respect their POV. This is just not a horrendous way to go about this game either. I’m not trying to set up a chain of executions or whatever, new information will come out. But as a POE? I absolutely agree.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not starting with Flea. I think it’s just wrong. I could be off I don’t know look my instincts are what they are. I just think we need more information if that’s what we really want to do. At this stage, I wouldn’t nuke Flea before Facebones. No way.

[nopointinactingup]

If Gerain was scum, he would have NKed me since he knows I have a tendency to tunnel based on his experiences with me and he would have expected me gun for him today since he was my second scum-read yesterday.

I don’t know how true this is. You’re the obvious NK. I also think that’s why the Scum avoided it. They haven’t gotten any Town PRs outside of one Mason so in my opinion they’re afraid to slip.

While this maybe true, I think that if Gerain was scum, me having had Gerain as next in line to eat the ropes would have deterred a NK that's not me. There was no indication I'm the type of person who does 180 easily either.

[Andresvmb]

1330 really is hot garbage as a reads list. There’s no denying that. And that’s after Cook had flipped.

[Andresvmb]

Okay nopoint but you were also certain Koba was Scum, and you were wrong. It’s very easy to see how the Scum might have thought that you weren’t worth NK’ing just yet. And since you were by far the most expected and cleared player in the game, that you could present an issue from multiple perspectives. I won’t get into it mechanically, but I for sure would have thought twice about taking a shot at you there.

[nopointinactingup]

I mean I'm not completely against a FB lynch but for me that slot has both scum and town indications

[Andresvmb]

Also like between the vote that puts Facebones at E-1, and the unvote by RLotus, that’s a whole day right? Yeah Scum could have been afraid to open themselves up by hammering there, but not even pushing hard to get a claim out of Facebones? So you think that wagon at that stage contained the entire Team? So that’s what 2 Scum amongst {bugspray, RLotus, Egix}? Do you think that’s what’s happening?

[Andresvmb]

Because I really don’t see that. So if Facebones really is Town, and geraintm is Town, where’s the Scum right now? Not voting? Not being much of a voice? I guess that’s possible?

[Andresvmb]

@Flea you need to put a vote down. Same goes for you @geraintm. You guys are getting away with sitting on the sidelines too much right now that much is true.

[nopointinactingup]

The unvote was by Facebones himself 8 hours later. Egix made intent to hammer in the 5th hour. That might not be enough time for any shenanigans. Do you think that he would as scum, self vote to E-1, then went afk for 8 hours? I think a gambitting scum would stay close by the forum to make sure they get away with it.

[RLotus]

I think one or both scum could kind of coast here expecting the town block to just fall onto FB like what happened with dk. Myself, andre, nopoint, and Jim have all said FB is a fine elim for today so why do they even need to put pressure there if we are going to fall onto that wagon anyway. Flea and geraint are the most obviously doing that, which would imply Flea or Gerain + bugspray/Egix. I suppose it could just be FB + Flea/Gerain. Flea or gerain are the best shots today imo.

[Jim Hawkins]

We can talk in circles about who is or isn't the scum pair (assuming there are two left). But.... since we cannot guarantee 100% accuracy.... who would we learn the most from, regardless of their flip?

[Egix96]

The unvote was by Facebones himself 8 hours later. Egix made intent to hammer in the 5th hour. That might not be enough time for any shenanigans. Do you think that he would as scum, self vote to E-1, then went afk for 8 hours? I think a gambitting scum would stay close by the forum to make sure they get away with it.

Personally I don't really think it was a gambit though, more like an "I'm just gonna vote myself because I don't know how to dig myself out of this hole" thing, which Flea then talked him out of.

[Egix96]

OK the fae madness has returned.

Facebones, you're weird and I like that.

I'm also pretty sure I know why you've put yourself at E-1

.

There is intent to hammer, would you care to claim at all, or would you rather unvote?

It's on that note that I'd like to know what fae meant by this.

[Egix96]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11737614

Addendum to 1622. Similar thing here, I thought.