Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[quiet]

*alive today, you get the idea.

Positives of doc claim: if CC, it polarizes two players as one scum, one town. If no CC, it gives us some kind of information about something. Sort of forces a shot.
Negatives of doc claim: If real, doc dies tonight (almost certainly). Easy to fake. Easy to turn real confusing. Nothing guaranteed.

I think I trend towards don't claim and if you do exist just get real lucky.

[Prism]

I mean I knew there was a chance I died, but floo shooting me would be deeply questionable as would shooting me if floo is town.

[Prism]

If Frederick was scum I was 100% the best shot, which is why I gave the last reads and testament, but the second Frederick flipped town I figured I was living.

[Prism]

Issue is basically that scum can fakeclaim doctor adaptively.

Doctor exists and doesn't claim. Scum claims doctor on getting voted. Two buckets to vote in.

Doctor doesn't exist. Scum exclusively claims it on getting voted, likely buys themselves an extra day in Elo.

The strength is in them not claiming it, or in us policyvoting an E-1 doctor claim: This gives us a chance at the doctor making it to three way, which is when the EV pays off.

[quiet]

Prism, in what world do I get shot? Spartian, flow think I'm scum, I don't know what floo thinks but I think it's neutral at best, and you're openly concerned about me and have been for ages. Most damning, though it was Spartian's strong SR in part that drove my decision of floo vs. fred or flow, I was still the first on the Fred miselim wagon.

I just couldn't make a decent play yesterday it seems. Why would I get killed? I feel like I look terrible rn.

Am I doing the thing where somehow people TR me despite the fact that I feel like people SR me like crazy? Spartian SRed me at the start of the day yesterday for thinking people SRed me from day1 despite the fact that they found me towny after that. Is that about to happen again?

[flow trap]

Prism, in what world do I get shot? Spartian, flow think I'm scum

Neutral now

[quiet]

Issue is basically that scum can fakeclaim doctor adaptively.
Doctor exists and doesn't claim. Scum claims doctor on getting voted. Two buckets to vote in.
Doctor doesn't exist. Scum exclusively claims it on getting voted, likely buys themselves an extra day in Elo.
The strength is in them not claiming it, or in us policyvoting an E-1 doctor claim: This gives us a chance at the doctor making it to three way, which is when the EV pays off.

Doesn't it require 3 to elim today?

So any misvote is an instaloss from a quickhammer. Which means no town can vote on town, or the game is immediatly over; I'm 100% policyvoting any E-1 claim, because if they were inno, they'd already be dead.

or am I missing something critical there

[quiet]

Neutral now

yeah, but last night's scum wouldn't know that.

[Prism]

Prism, in what world do I get shot? Spartian, flow think I'm scum, I don't know what floo thinks but I think it's neutral at best, and you're openly concerned about me and have been for ages. Most damning, though it was Spartian's strong SR in part that drove my decision of floo vs. fred or flow, I was still the first on the Fred miselim wagon.

"openly concerned about me" is true but willfully misses the point that I would likely shut down any potential push on you. Fairy also wanted flow trap and wasn't sold floo was town. Spartan wanted you EoD but that 1v1 is really the only thing to bet on with you alive.

I will hold off on doctor world speculation.

[flow trap]

Sort of forces a shot

We always shoot here

[Prism]

Doesn't it require 3 to elim today?

So any misvote is an instaloss from a quickhammer. Which means no town can vote on town, or the game is immediatly over; I'm 100% policyvoting any E-1 claim, because if they were inno, they'd already be dead.

or am I missing something critical there

You're right in that this should be E-2. Scum have to coordinate to blitz, meaning there's a window where TvT votes are still possible.

[flow trap]

Oh, so there is no vote lock?

[quiet]

We always shoot here

Forces a shot as in, an honest claimed doctor will nearly always force scum to shoot them, which deprives scum of setting up ElLo the way they might optimally want to.

I'll table doc discussion for now.

[Prism]

If you're worried about me making the NK you don't have to.

That kill is outright against my philosophy for playing the mafia alignment, which is explicitly shooting people that I think won't get voted. I'll try to dig up a few posts that confirm that if you want.

Still unclear to me why you (quiet) think the kill doesn't make sense. I get that you said you're thinking on it still but that's a strong claim.

[Prism]

Also, in a no doc world, it's better to no kill, but I can table that.

[quiet]

"openly concerned about me" is true but willfully misses the point that I would likely shut down any potential push on you. Fairy also wanted flow trap and wasn't sold floo was town. Spartan wanted you EoD but that 1v1 is really the only thing to bet on with you alive.

This is fair; Maybe I need to shift my perspective around a bit.
Well, Spartian lobbied hard to keep Floo alive and Fred voted. I was first on the Fred wagon. I want to hear from Spartian about where they are at rn.

[quiet]

Didn't make sense = I didn't think it would happen and hadn't considered it a possibility. Maybe I should have. I was getting really suspicious about fairy overnight. Seeing fairy shot didn't make a lot of sense to me.

[Prism]

Actually since they can't do it anymore it's fine to just out it.

You no kill. 6 town alive. Four branching paths

Town wants doctor to claim+votes that day: 1/4 chance of partner being voted. Not predictable what your odds are of making it through, but pretty good.
Town wants doctor to claim, you don't vote that day: You nightkill the save and claim roleblocked.

Town doesn't want doctor to claim+votes that day: No info, 2/3 chance of town getting voted.
Town not voting w/o a claim isn't actually an option as scum can doctest by hunting w/ the roleblock

[quiet]

*a high frequency possibility.

Does anyone in this thread scumread Prism for any reason?

[flow trap]

I have a bit of uneasyness, but still TRing

[Prism]

Scumsman PTs/Sakura Wars PTs never got released, shame.

I shoot almost entirely based off how likely they are to get voted. I allude to this here in a postgame Scumsman post, 4257 talks about how I was the one behind the Hectic shot where the entire reason was that he was a universal TR and never getting voted, even though his reads were pretty poor. Here's one from The Thaw, and a few from Market Blitz.

That said there are two scum in the game, so it's not bulletproof. If you're worried I masterminded that kill though that is......definitely not the case.

[flow trap]

Should I release the essay in parts or all at once?

[Prism]

And quiet-you've spent all of this evaluating me/inviting others to reevaluate me. That's great and all, and I get that now is the time to reconsider, but what do you think of floo/Spartan/flow trap?

P-Edit: I mean, it's your wall, but at once is probably better.

[Prism]

I've got to go grab food but I'll work through it after.

[flow trap]

If I release it allllll at once, it's going to take a long time