TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Winter Flakes]

So you think everyone on wagon right now is town?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: dgb the chicken Is making a lot of sense lately and I’m starting to tr lld

I want multiple examples of chicken posts you're referencing here.

I've been ???ing at Oka all day so it's an odd comment to see from IV.

literally 1532 onwards

yes, i think it's a leap to say DGB is scum from his conclusions, but when aren't reads giant elastic arm stretches anyway especially on D1. I got a similar vibe on DGB anyway prior to this; it's posting looks similar and almost feels similar which makes me lean town but it's more pointed and forceful and again ive raised concerns with it's treatment of my slot in the past

i also tentatively buy the idea that scum!LLD is just better than this. if LLD is scum that might not be good for Oka (?) but it seems like kind of a weird pre-planned play to make Oka post something like this to save his partner

[jjh927]

How about this

I will keep an open mind on Saturday/Sunday for my activity spike and you can try to convince me to vote someone other than tw

[innocentvillager]

also for some reason i townread 1567, 1569 but i can't put my finger on it. probably dependent on Oka/LLD alignments too but im not sure in what way

[innocentvillager]

dgb how does your team feel about your solve?

[DrippingGoofball]

So you think everyone on wagon right now is town?

Yes. I do believe everyone on that wagon is town.

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: dgb the chicken Is making a lot of sense lately and I’m starting to tr lld

I want multiple examples of chicken posts you're referencing here.

I've been ???ing at Oka all day so it's an odd comment to see from IV.

These are the posts you're referring to, IV.

You haven't answered the question in 1567 at all.

[DrippingGoofball]

TOWN

DrippingGoofball
Xtoxm
Dannflor
Winter Flakes
Hopkirk
AGar
jjh927 - low activity, low quality post by did drop a towntell
Titus - VLA, but I like what I see thus far
hercule - was going to say null until I caught a towntell

NULL

mastina - I have been enjoying her posts on a personal and intellectual level, I have seen nothing I would consider remotely scummy but she's not someone who can be read on Day 1.
Almost50 - he is so giddy I read his post with a helium balloon voice, I don't know if that's AI.
the worst - VLA, waiting for more info
Cephrir - was going to be in my town list but I saw a few things that pinged.

SCUM

Dunnstral

- his xtoxm scumread feels like he's scum sensing a weak target and picking at him. a lot of going back and forth and fencesitting.

Ythan

- low activity, meaningless posts

OkaPoka

****

I forgot to write his name in the scumlist but I clarified later

not-so innocentvillager

- morose and demotivated, not solving

Lady Lambdadelta

- aggressively discrediting players, manipulative ego pos

t

These were my reads two days ago.

I have highlighted in red the players voting for me

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: dgb the chicken Is making a lot of sense lately and I’m starting to tr lld

I want multiple examples of chicken posts you're referencing here.

I've been ???ing at Oka all day so it's an odd comment to see from IV.

These are the posts you're referring to, IV.

You haven't answered the question in 1567 at all.

yeah i said i townread those and i literally did answer it

[DrippingGoofball]

yeah i said i townread those and i literally did answer it

Ythan's question was:

I want multiple examples of chicken posts you're referencing here.

Is it me who is on crack, but did you answer this question by pointing to two of his own posts, instead of MULTIPLE CHICKEN POSTS?

Let me check again, maybe I'm on crack.

[DrippingGoofball]

Yes I am on crack.

[DrippingGoofball]

If this was your answer, maybe that's why I missed it.

literally 1532 onwards

That's an extraordinary lazy answer.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: dgb the chicken Is making a lot of sense lately and I’m starting to tr lld

I want multiple examples of chicken posts you're referencing here.

I've been ???ing at Oka all day so it's an odd comment to see from IV.

literally 1532 onwards

yes, i think it's a leap to say DGB is scum from his conclusions, but when aren't reads giant elastic arm stretches anyway especially on D1. I got a similar vibe on DGB anyway prior to this; it's posting looks similar and almost feels similar which makes me lean town but it's more pointed and forceful and again ive raised concerns with it's treatment of my slot in the past

i also tentatively buy the idea that scum!LLD is just better than this. if LLD is scum that might not be good for Oka (?) but it seems like kind of a weird pre-planned play to make Oka post something like this to save his partner

this whole thing is the answer

and i talk about what from those specific posts I liked and how i felt about those arguments

if you have more questions, you only need ask

[innocentvillager]

dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?

[DrippingGoofball]

I got Ramcius on discord now and he wants me to ask you what makes Oka town. He also says you should point to something specific to make me town read him.

[DrippingGoofball]

dgb if we are both town then who is scum?

I have been extraordinarily clear and vocal about my reads.

[AGar]

Reading now.

[Xtoxm]

the case on dunnstral

(cases are scummy version)

preface: this is the result of significant discussion between myself and auro on discord. it is not only my, or his case, it is both of ours, in my words. some elements may be influenced by auro or paraphrased.

part 1

: dunnstral is scummy in this game

shitpush on us

VOTE: Xtoxm

It's crazy that you went right back to only posting Auro's opinions, and you

just

got tripped up on that in the last game.

I guess you guys were disconnected and didn't ever understand why I was pushing you?

Also, these townreads and scumreads make me queasy. Something about the charisma values and the reads, it feels like a scum point of view.

you feel hostile

They felt hostile last game.

If you don't remember, look for the one time in all of last game where they acknowledged my existence (I wasn't even in their read list)

Dann, Agar, what do you two like about xtoxm here?

There was a spot where they were aggressive last game

They're doing the same exact type of posting where they don't acknowledge a lot of what is going on, even stuff directed at them

I don't understand how Auro's read on Hercule makes them town

from #398 to #685, where he hops on the hercule wagon (period >24h) he comments only on us. no other opinions on the game, or other players. like dgb said earlier, we think he was picking on an easy target here. i have no doubt that after v1, scum were expecting me to be an easy mis-eliminate this game. (hell, so was i)

VOTE: Hercule

Reading through to page 37 I'm not like, sold on him being scum, but I can see it going either way

shit vote on hercule. he said he's happy for this to go all the way to an eliminate. but he can see it going either way.
yet, for someone expressing such a nonchalant and uncaring attitude, he sure is hard opposed to applying the same logic to another player many of us scumread.

Spoiler: waffling

I don't townread any of these people

I think the second half of 287 by Mastina is pretty weird too.

VOTE: Hercule
Because I don't personally buy that he's towntold either

But the reads presented in 1012 are probably bad

I don't know where to side on lld and dgb. Not scumreading either atm, which could be incorrect. Not enthused about either vote though

I like Dannflor for town after thinking about it. I always have, but I'm less reserved about this read. I don't buy into mastina's case here

I agree that a50 looks like town. Not a strong read

I like 817 from lld, though, votes on the worst feel weird right now. I'm not townreading him but he's about null and said he'd post more later, and people have been putting new votes on him for a while now.

I can see herc as either town who is being pushed for not much and him having trouble in the game because he has to argue against that

OR I can see him as scum who feels caught for the wrong reasons, as pointed out by Dann and Cephrir and LLD around page 33+

Spoiler: active lurking

But you were being bussed, which is something different than a block of scum voting together on a townie

I can see herc as either town who is being pushed for not much and him having trouble in the game because he has to argue against that

OR I can see him as scum who feels caught for the wrong reasons, as pointed out by Dann and Cephrir and LLD around page 33+

I don't think their reaction is towny, at least. What I thought was towny was mostly a tone read and got town apart back to null in the next few pages, and I remember that I shifted to townreading him as the game went on last time. It seems like a fine vote to me

Thank fucking god you're town.

This is literally where I'm at right now and I'm loathe to talk much about it because the minute I stop doing the charismatic confidence bit, the hercule wagon will dissipate?

and I'm right now more certain than not he's scum... but there is a voice in the back of my head whispering bad thoughts to me, and it's talking a lot about the way the 2 wagons have progressed today, people's stances, and what makes sense for scum to do if we were both town.

Can you vibe at me wrt to that topic?

Also I want to be clear that I'm doing something I've basically never done before and being transparent with my process a bit here

Which feels really fucking vulnerable and bad, so I'm really hoping that it pays off and either cures my paranoia or refocuses me in a correct path if needed.

lol

Yeah, which wagon are you talking about, the worst or yourself?

Hercule.

Dunn if you're around I want to dismantle my own wagon I think, but I need to talk to someone who I have the remotest sense of trust in to decide whether my paranoia is legitimate or not.

It also doesn't hurt my team is in my ear about all of this too so.

These posts too mastina

and 1248

these were the only posts made by dunn this day.

I've moved on from xtoxm in case that wasn't clear.

it wasn't, and you're late to the party. i feel i'm pretty obvtown at this point, and a lot of players have called me town.

I would like to better understand why lld is currently being wagoned and where else we should be wagoning

for someone who has taken a hard stance of being opposed to the lld wagon, why has it taken so long to ask this question?

part 2

: dunnstral is playing his scum meta

we've done a fairly deep meta dive on dunn, and we believe we've found a characteristic of dunn's scum play. it is present in this game.
we did an experiment of this by having me pull links in dunn's game history direct to his iso, ones that we hadn't looked at before, and showing them blind to auro. auro would try to make a read on dunn using only his iso. i showed him 5 games of psuedo random alignments. some of them he was confident in, and called quickly, a couple he said he was unsure and guessing a little - but he called all of them correctly.

here are the links i gave to auro. i've spoilered the alignments in case you'd like to perform the experiment yourself:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Spoiler:

scum

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Spoiler:

town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Spoiler:

town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Spoiler:

scum

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Spoiler:

town

when dunn is town he provides insightful reads that are well explained. when he is scum, this is not always the case, especially early in the game. he is prone to making blanket statements such as "i like [player]" with little or no justification. as town, he just goes straight into explaining his positions. auro looked over these iso's, with a focus on identifying non backed up blanket statements. the tell itself is not absolute - there are some instances of him doing it as town - but they are much rarer. people may cheery pick these to refute our case, but i'll reiterate: auro called dunn's alignment correctly every time.

instances of dunn doing it this game:

I like Dannflor for town after thinking about it. I always have, but I'm less reserved about this read. I don't buy into mastina's case here

I agree that a50 looks like town. Not a strong read

And I don't like DGB on 37

And I do like Dann, Ceph, jjh, and to a cautious extent lld

The worst/Winter Flakes/Titus: This group feels unreadable for me; I want to say there's probably scum in this group

could auro have gotten lucky with 5 consecutive guesses? well, maybe. but 5 in a row is pretty long odds. auro seems to be pretty good at meta reading dunn, and he has a heavy scumread on dunn this game.

i have been reluctant to post our case, as im worried about dismantling our wagon on lld, but auro feels its time to share.

we still want to eliminate lld today

we feel this is the best flip for the game state, and we have a heavy scum read there also. we scumread both independently. perhaps this will help inform opinions on one of the players who is desperate to wagon outside of lld.

[Xtoxm]

dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?

quite possibly!
i have no idea about oka, tbh, but i dont tr him.

[Dannflor]

hey nice case

[Cephrir]

Cephrir you have devolved back into short posts complaining about mastina and the game state, and that feels kind of bad for your alignment

I know. Sorry.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Cephrir]

Hey, nice case. It's not scummy.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Dunnstral