TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)


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Post Post #1650 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:24 am

Post by OkaPoka »

nobody cared until you reopened it...
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Post Post #1651 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:27 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1589, innocentvillager wrote:dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?
I misunderstood Ramcius. He said that if you being an argument with "if we are both town" then you have to convince me that you're town first, because I scumread you.
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Post Post #1652 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:33 am

Post by innocentvillager »

oh boy mafia tilt been there done that not fun

dw in a few days there will be some other totally new heated 1v1 action that will make everyone forget about this and the cycle repeats

what a great game
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Post Post #1653 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:36 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 1651, DrippingGoofball wrote:
In post 1589, innocentvillager wrote:dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?
I misunderstood Ramcius. He said that if you being an argument with "if we are both town" then you have to convince me that you're town first, because I scumread you.
okay so it has nothing to do with okapoka? ok yeah that felt a little random to me

uhh not gonna towncase myself or anything lol? but one reason im town is because i literally can't stand posting in main thread as scum but idk how i would be playing here in this very specific game as scum honestly :/

if im scum i definitely cannot keep this kind of solving/energy up organically for long unless i want to wreck my mental health (which i don't!) so ill probably give myself away as scum eventually
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Post Post #1654 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:37 am

Post by OkaPoka »

mentally we are at 3 weeks of d1 and might hit a full month of d1

man imagine if the reroll was dance all im saying it would have been GOATED
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Post Post #1655 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:39 am

Post by Cephrir »

they should absolutely do a dancegame in the next TM

it might be toxic and town would win for sure but it'd be fun
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Post Post #1656 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:40 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1589, innocentvillager wrote:dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?
So you're saying that you also scumread Dunn and Oka and LLD?
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Post Post #1657 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:40 am

Post by Cephrir »

just do that instead of X flag no one likes those
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Post Post #1658 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:40 am

Post by OkaPoka »

4 scum vs 13 town and no ic could be an insane bloodbath

oh my god just spectating that would be wild
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Post Post #1659 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:41 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1600, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1590, DrippingGoofball wrote:I got Ramcius on discord now and he wants me to ask you what makes Oka town. He also says you should point to something specific to make me town read him.
i don't really have anything specific

maybe i just tend to townread Oka's style and that fact that he's even close to hitting a similar energy as last game when I don't think he would really be trying as scum when his team has already lost is +town

i don't expect to convince anyone when im not even convinced of his alignment myself tho lol, not sure why ramcius is specifically interested in this
The style and posting frequency are similar but the town content is completely lacking.
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Post Post #1660 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:43 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1602, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1600, innocentvillager wrote:i don't expect to convince anyone when im not even convinced of his alignment myself tho lol, not sure why ramcius is specifically interested in this
also surprised cakez didn't weigh in on me bc he knows me and afaik ive never played with ramcius
I will ask him directly.
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Post Post #1661 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:45 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1606, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1604, Titus wrote:Chennisden has some thoughts that I'll be paraphrasing over here. He agrees with me on IV scum and LLD town, so at least that's something.
welp dannflor that's two slots scumreading me now lol

ahhh the pressure is mounting ahhh
If YOU feel like pressure... sure.
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Post Post #1662 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:47 am

Post by Titus »

In post 1613, OkaPoka wrote:dgb scumreads me so i wouldnt be pocketed @titus
I am asking them to reevaluate. I am aware they scumread you as of the post I am quoting. New information may change a read.
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Post Post #1663 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:54 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

In post 1642, Hopkirk wrote:@matina/innocentvillager/hercule/DGB - what are your views on how i'm approaching this and whether i should be angry/upset by this?
It's difficult for an outsider to wade into this kind of content and find stuff that is AI, but I think you're the towniest in the lot and my view is biased. Just ignore them for now?
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Post Post #1664 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:03 am

Post by OkaPoka »

17p 4 v 13 no ic Dance
15p baton pass
14p Pick Your Power
13p mini theme
9p closed micro normal
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Post Post #1665 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:11 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 1656, DrippingGoofball wrote:
In post 1589, innocentvillager wrote:dgb if we are both town then who is scum? im scumsiding with scum!dunnstral and scum!okapoka who are trying to deflect away from scum!LLD? is that the narrative that makes the most sense for you rn (if im town)?
So you're saying that you also scumread Dunn and Oka and LLD?
i never said anything like that? i scumlean Dunn mostly based on xtoxm's case which i found fairly reasonable. I think i townlean Oka and LLD but im not sure. y'know what ill just make some tiers

{innocentvillager}
{mastina}
{Dannflor, Okapoka, hercule, Xtoxm, A50}
{LLD}
{the worst, Winter, Ythan, Hopkirk, Titus, Cephrir, AGar, DGB, jj} - nully
{dunnstral}
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Post Post #1666 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:35 am

Post by hercule »

lmao xtoxm is so town this game
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Post Post #1667 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:36 am

Post by hercule »

it's interesting to me cuz peta thought dunnstral was playing their towngame so imma have him proofread the case
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Post Post #1668 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:54 am

Post by hercule »

In post 1603, Dannflor wrote:sorry for another wall, I know this game really doesn't need more of those

Spoiler:
I don't think it's all that unlikely that the LLD/Hercule/Mastina trifecta that's been the ongoing nuclear center of almost the entirety of Day 1 is all town.

I hard town read mastina for reasons I've already stated, you need only click on my ISO. Jingle agrees with this read and mastina was one of his first town reads upon reading through the game. LLD also hard town reads mastina, which is exactly why she's gotten so frustrated with the game. Also, the fact that both LLD and I hard town read mastina speaks good things for mastina's alignment regardless of the alignment of either me or LLD.

OkaPoka posted some good thoughts about why LLD is town recently. I won't argue that LLD won't play an emotional game as either alignment, but I think looking at the crux of her frustration here and how she's going about handling it, it speaks more towards town. I don't think LLD really ever tries to maybe back off of Hercule as scum. I think LLD's interactions with mastina, while not pleasant, are +town. I also thought the questions she asked of me and Cephrir about our motivation before we starting questioning Hercule—I'm referring to posts #803, #813, #815 specifically—it shows to me she's genuinely thinking about sorting the game beyond getting her perfect Hercule elimination. Also, uh... yeah I don't think LLD is the type of scum player to just disappear right as she's getting to E-2. You need only look at like, any other scum game of hers, AvP for instance, to see that she's gonna put up a fight the whole way. Yes blah blah blah she can warp her meta blah blah blah, but it's just like a bad strategical decision man. I think her genuine frustration with mastina is more likely to come from town who town reads her than scum who has decided to town read her and feels like... threatened by her?

Hercule is probably the town read in this trifecta I'm least sure about, but I think with how the game has played out and the dynamics at play it feels best for me if he's town. Like I don't strongly get the sense we've run up scum today. I can't really explain that beyond a gut feeling so that's probably a useless thing to say.

First, I'll say this, I never bought LLD's initial case on hercule whatever the fuck it was. Honestly, I didn't have much of a read either way on Hercule until he reacted in what I felt was a bad way to LLD's push. However, there's also definitely townie who react like that and his later posts suggested that was probably the case. I also don't think the idea that OH NO HERCULE HAS 35 PLAYERS THAT CAN ALL HELP HERCULE PLAY SCUM WAY DIFFERENT FROM LAST GAME is a case that is convincing at all. Unless hercule has some famously excellent scum player like FL or RC on his team then like... what is the actual worry here? Also how many people helped their team mates in black flag significantly with their scum game?? So overall, the only case I really hold as valid for hercule scum is the bad reaction to pressure, but like, that goes either way and taken all together I generally consider his posts townier than not. I mean, there's the caveat that I told hercule exactly what I wanted from him to town read him and then he posted a reads list, but like, it's not a bad reads list at least? There's also the small factor that I feel like hercule has had a lot less trouble with direct interactions this game. He hasn't seemed to shy away from them and seems more eager to be directly confrontational / question people. Also, I think his back and forth waffling on LLD and uncertainty on wtf to do with her is +town in the end.

So like, what does this actually mean for who is scum?

Who has been happy to ride out the LLD - Hercule wagons and just let town implode? Who has done this without significantly being town? Who has done this without seeming to be trying to get anything out of this mess other than flips? Who just isn't doing anything and able to get by because this clusterfuck is happening?

Town

mastina - see above
LLD - see above
hercule - see above

xtoxm - idk I like my auro read even if auro disagrees. He mentioned why I wouldn't assume he's more invested because black flag ended, honestly I just forgot about that. overall xtoxm is just a blinding sphere of golden light compared to last game. Jingle said to me a couple days ago that xtoxm is probably town and if he keeps up this level of activity and engagement he's almost lock town. Well, the fact he just randomly posted a case on Dunnstral without even really needing to at all and then concluding with saying they still wanna kill LLD is like, very much lock town levels in my book.

A50 - This is mostly Jingle's read not mine. And, it seems to be mostly a meta read. But I don't know how else to read A50. Overall, they seem extremely similar to last game to me, which is probably +town? Both Cephrir and Jingle who say they know or have recently seen A50's scum game find this game an obvious town game from him. I can try to get Jingle to elaborate more if needed but I'm happy just sheeping this for now because at the very least I don't detect any agenda from A50.

IV - I don't think anyone besides DGB suspects this slot so idk how many words I wanna spend here. but I think they've just been pretty obvious town in their progressions, how they go about questioning people, and honestly even how they've reacted to DGB. They're one of the slots that I actually believe has been trying to get to the bottom of the LLD/Hercule mess and get some reads out of it for themselves.

OkaPoka - Okay until recently I actually was scum reading OkaPoka. I lied about voting him for a placeholder. He seemed like he was just content to ride out the LLD/Hercule resolution and he didn't seem particularly pro-active in literally anyway. I also didn't understand the push on mastina for being political at all. Now, I actually understand his thought process better and I think the fact that he's gone back and forth between prodding both Hercule and Mastina (but having actual reasons for doing so) is + town. There's like other stuff here too but it's less important.

====

[jjh, Winter Flakes, Cephrir] also belong in my town reads. but I don't have as many words to say. jjh just doesn't seem like he cares how he's percieved. Maybe that's a strategy to get town read, and well, it's working. Winter Flakes had a spree of posts that I thought was really town, although he had a weird half-push half-question of me where he thought there was a weird difference between me this game and me last game, and I wasn't sure what type of response he was expecting and he never really followed up on it so that's why I'm maybe a little weaker on this read than some people. But still probably town. sorry for run on sentence. Cephrir is probably town. People are like oh no he's too fence sitty and indecisive and scummy (including myself) and forgetting he confidently made pushes more than once last game.

[titus] is not readable right now imo

[agar, DGB] - I just haven't picked up on anything towny yet here. Jingle town read AGar's tone and I know a few other people have too, so there might just be something I'm missing there. I feel like it's easy to town read DGB's confidence in the face of LLD, but I dunno. I don't really get any significant sense it's actually thinking about the game beyond trying to get flips. Maybe that's town indicative? Like, a few pages ago it said that it won't forget I'm "reducing the case on LLD to an lolwagon" and then did nothing with that and still town reads me. Feels the most politically driven out of all the players and I just really don't know what to make of that.

[dunn, hop, ythan, the worst]

I was town reading Dunn but honestly it was a very lazy read and reading back looking for people just standing on the sidelines of this LLD/Hercule dynamic, he stands out with his push onto xtoxm and then just kind of sitting on hercule but never making any effort to engage hercule. It feels perfunctory. I did town read the vote then unvote then vote of hercule like cephrir did but... It's also distinctly not town!Dunn's style I feel? He felt far too easily swayed by the thread's movements and while he makes a lot of specific comments about specific posts, a lot of his views seem fencesitty. IDK xtoxm just posted a case on dunn so I'm not gonna waste too much energy here.

Hopkirk I don't have as much of a reason to scum read as I do a lack of reason to town read. They haven't done really anything with the hercule/LLD dynamic. My reason for town reading them is essentially ancient and basically comes from hectic over hopkirk. I did think Hopkirk's reaction to the small wagon that built on him wasn't that great. But honestly, I just need to see more from this slot doing more in the game because I felt they had more of a presence last game despite probably posting a similar amount?

ythan - I actually think is close to obvious scum reading back and I'm surprised no one has pushed here yet. I don't understand the claims that ythan has been similar in tone and content as last game. Wtf has ythan actually done this game? Last game he actually picked a fight with hercule and tried to sort him and genuinely got something he cared about out of that engagement. Who has he earnestly engaged with this game for any extended period of time? What actual content has he posted? I'm not seeing it. Like yes, he had about the same volume of memey shit posts last game, but he also had a much larger volume of posts that at least *tried* to do something. He's also one of the biggest culprits of just riding out the hercule/LLD dynamic in a way that might look towny on a surface level because YAY WAGONS but like... I have no idea what ythan is thinking here. The two main things he's done at all this game is vote hercule for like no reason, and then vote LLD for like no reason. ????

the worst - not a lot to say here. I won't scum read him for not being here or being vla or whatever. He's probably busy with out of game stuff. But the times he has popped in were unimpressive and felt a bit forced. Granted, that's not necessarily scum and I wish the worst was more readable right now but I can't put him any higher because he really hasn't done anything towny. I don't really think the team is exactly my bottom four, so it's likely I'm town reading someone I shouldn't be. But that's a problem for future Dannflor


======

that list isn't exactly ordered except for the vague tiers I outlined

I'm happy to wagon anyone in my bottom four today

speaking of VOTE: dunnstral
I like your thought process here but don't you think this is going too far into pre-flip associatives... like you have to throw out your entire theory of the game if LLD flips scum. And I also think you're giving her a lot of benefit of the doubt when we don't really know what she has been thinking regarding the gamestate / the wagons. She expressed paranoia / thoughts about waffling on pushing me but she didn't follow through on it. BUT at this point she would know it fell apart. Idk it will be interesting to see her entrance back into the thread. I think the 3 posts you quoted from her showing a genuine thought process sound good but aren't out of the range of someone explicitly trying to control the day's narrative regardless of alignment
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Post Post #1669 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:57 am

Post by hercule »

In post 1616, AGar wrote:
Spoiler: Notes
- #686 is a weird flip by WF. There's like... no content from the_worst to parse in the 20 or so posts between his change. This feels very very contrived.
- I want to murder A50, for no reason other than his spam quotes are going to make this take fucking hours longer than it should.
- #736 looks real bad for Hercule. 741 to 743 is gross. In 741, you're waiting on her to explain her scumread before you decide and you kinda wanna vote A50. In 743 you vote LLD for being in "have not said or done something towny." Feels jarring when contrasted to #736.
- It's the Hercule power hour for now, huh? #751 "I don't feel like it's that weird to be sus of me" really? Because you got uppity and snippy about people suspecting you and/or voting you like... 15 posts ago.
- #766 IV, wtf is this shit?
- Oh no, DGB. That stretch in #768 was too much.
- Ok IV is still town (#772)
- I straight up disagree with OkaPoka's #805. WF has not been bold? He's posted like three times? And he's waffled on a read on the_worst.
- 812 is a weird naked vote. The_worst wasn't a wagon burgeoning. Hope Ceph elaborates?
- Dann/Hercule exchange in the 800s - I agree with Dann, I find hercule infinitely scummier.
- I don't like jjh. #847 is just very middling and meh.
- Hercule #873:
I have devoted most of my attention this game outside of LLD
Press X for doubt.
- jjh #882. Yeah we just play different games or you're selectively misremembering here.
- Hercule #892 is very very typical scum bluster. "I want to talk about things but tell me what they are so I can concoct my read!"
- Whew boy WF absolutely
STINKS
this game.

- I was wrong.
- Hopkirk #1142 and #1144 sets off alarms for me. #1142 looks like he's specifically baiting to bring in toxicity, #1144 doubles down and Hopkirk just doesn't realize that he isn't funny and tries to use this to generate a point of contention.
- Hopkirk also trying to make callbacks to last game and that doesn't really hold water with me.
- 1187 is a hell of a fucking stretch by Hopkirk. Yeet this with fervor.
- Hercule has dipped out since pressure has seemingly dissipated on him. Makes you think.
- 1204, Hopkirk is really trying to kick up the toxicity dust. Wonder why.
- 1242 RE FUCKING TWEET.
- Same for 1424.
- 1480 is a whole damn mood.
- 1511: Oka, how do you not have a read on LLD?
- Oka was doing a reaction test type thing, k. Weird but k.


I am under no circumstances yeeting LLD today.

Preferred yeets {Hercule/Hopkirk}

Someone not named xtoxm please lay out a case on Dunnstral for me? Xtoxm's case has Auro all over it and a lot of meta so I'm not swayed.
I'm not gonna look up all the posts you quoted without tags (I can't believe I did that last game) but how is "Hercule has dipped out since pressure has seemingly dissipated on him" your take on the last couple days? I dipped out when the pressure on me was explicitly High in order to just take a breather from the game and approach it back with a clear mind
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Post Post #1670 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:59 am

Post by hercule »

@Hopkirk are you still around or did I miss you
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Post Post #1671 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:11 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1423, Cephrir wrote:
In post 1421, Almost50 wrote:@Titus: Your defense of LLD won't work, simply because you are -supposedly- her Scum partner.
i mean okay but that one is actually based on literal nothing.

i have observed the mysterious votes on this page and i have no comment except that they are mysterious.
:?: :!: :?: :?: :!: :?: :!:
In post 1317, mastina wrote:hercule
Hopkirk
innocentvillager

DrippingGoofball
Xtoxm*
Almost50
Dunnstral
Winter Flakes (alt of Uncrowned)
jjh927

Cephrir
Ythan
AGar



OkaPoka



the worst

Titus

Lady Lambdadelta


(Dannflor absent intentionally--need to see more Dann posts)
I mean, mastina is the one pushing LLD the most (followed by DGB) and she has Titus as her second strongest SR (at least that was the case when I posted that). Now what am I missing?

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Post Post #1672 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:12 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1583, DrippingGoofball wrote:
In post 1091, DrippingGoofball wrote:
TOWN

DrippingGoofball
Xtoxm
Dannflor
Winter Flakes
Hopkirk
AGar
jjh927 - low activity, low quality post by did drop a towntell
Titus - VLA, but I like what I see thus far
hercule - was going to say null until I caught a towntell

NULL

mastina - I have been enjoying her posts on a personal and intellectual level, I have seen nothing I would consider remotely scummy but she's not someone who can be read on Day 1.
Almost50 - he is so giddy I read his post with a helium balloon voice, I don't know if that's AI.
the worst - VLA, waiting for more info
Cephrir - was going to be in my town list but I saw a few things that pinged.

SCUM

Dunnstral
- his xtoxm scumread feels like he's scum sensing a weak target and picking at him. a lot of going back and forth and fencesitting.
Ythan
- low activity, meaningless posts
OkaPoka
****
I forgot to write his name in the scumlist but I clarified later

not-so innocentvillager
- morose and demotivated, not solving
Lady Lambdadelta
- aggressively discrediting players, manipulative ego pos
t
These were my reads two days ago.

I have highlighted in red the players voting for me :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I definitely scumread you and said I'd vote for you way before you mvoed be down to scum in your reads, acting like it's the opposite is disingenuous
In post 1593, Xtoxm wrote:
the case on dunnstral
(cases are scummy version)

preface: this is the result of significant discussion between myself and auro on discord. it is not only my, or his case, it is both of ours, in my words. some elements may be influenced by auro or paraphrased.

part 1
: dunnstral is scummy in this game

shitpush on us
In post 398, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Xtoxm
In post 399, Dunnstral wrote:It's crazy that you went right back to only posting Auro's opinions, and you
just
got tripped up on that in the last game.

I guess you guys were disconnected and didn't ever understand why I was pushing you?

Also, these townreads and scumreads make me queasy. Something about the charisma values and the reads, it feels like a scum point of view.
In post 522, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 520, Hopkirk wrote:you feel hostile
They felt hostile last game.

If you don't remember, look for the one time in all of last game where they acknowledged my existence (I wasn't even in their read list)
In post 646, Dunnstral wrote:Dann, Agar, what do you two like about xtoxm here?

There was a spot where they were aggressive last game

They're doing the same exact type of posting where they don't acknowledge a lot of what is going on, even stuff directed at them

I don't understand how Auro's read on Hercule makes them town
from #398 to #685, where he hops on the hercule wagon (period >24h) he comments only on us. no other opinions on the game, or other players. like dgb said earlier, we think he was picking on an easy target here. i have no doubt that after v1, scum were expecting me to be an easy mis-eliminate this game. (hell, so was i)
In post 1055, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Hercule

Reading through to page 37 I'm not like, sold on him being scum, but I can see it going either way
shit vote on hercule. he said he's happy for this to go all the way to an eliminate. but he can see it going either way.
yet, for someone expressing such a nonchalant and uncaring attitude, he sure is hard opposed to applying the same logic to another player many of us scumread.

Spoiler: waffling
In post 290, Dunnstral wrote: I don't townread any of these people
In post 297, Dunnstral wrote:I think the second half of 287 by Mastina is pretty weird too.
In post 685, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Hercule
Because I don't personally buy that he's towntold either
In post 1056, Dunnstral wrote:But the reads presented in 1012 are probably bad
In post 1053, Dunnstral wrote: I don't know where to side on lld and dgb. Not scumreading either atm, which could be incorrect. Not enthused about either vote though

I like Dannflor for town after thinking about it. I always have, but I'm less reserved about this read. I don't buy into mastina's case here

I agree that a50 looks like town. Not a strong read

I like from lld, though, votes on the worst feel weird right now. I'm not townreading him but he's about null and said he'd post more later, and people have been putting new votes on him for a while now.
In post 1064, Dunnstral wrote: I can see herc as either town who is being pushed for not much and him having trouble in the game because he has to argue against that

OR I can see him as scum who feels caught for the wrong reasons, as pointed out by Dann and Cephrir and LLD around page 33+


Spoiler: active lurking
In post 1363, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1240, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 1227, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1075, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 1064, Dunnstral wrote:But you were being bussed, which is something different than a block of scum voting together on a townie

I can see herc as either town who is being pushed for not much and him having trouble in the game because he has to argue against that

OR I can see him as scum who feels caught for the wrong reasons, as pointed out by Dann and Cephrir and LLD around page 33+

I don't think their reaction is towny, at least. What I thought was towny was mostly a tone read and got town apart back to null in the next few pages, and I remember that I shifted to townreading him as the game went on last time. It seems like a fine vote to me
Thank fucking god you're town.

This is literally where I'm at right now and I'm loathe to talk much about it because the minute I stop doing the charismatic confidence bit, the hercule wagon will dissipate?

and I'm right now more certain than not he's scum... but there is a voice in the back of my head whispering bad thoughts to me, and it's talking a lot about the way the 2 wagons have progressed today, people's stances, and what makes sense for scum to do if we were both town.

Can you vibe at me wrt to that topic?
In post 1076, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Also I want to be clear that I'm doing something I've basically never done before and being transparent with my process a bit here

Which feels really fucking vulnerable and bad, so I'm really hoping that it pays off and either cures my paranoia or refocuses me in a correct path if needed.

lol
Yeah, which wagon are you talking about, the worst or yourself?
Hercule.
In post 1247, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Dunn if you're around I want to dismantle my own wagon I think, but I need to talk to someone who I have the remotest sense of trust in to decide whether my paranoia is legitimate or not.

It also doesn't hurt my team is in my ear about all of this too so.
These posts too mastina
In post 1364, Dunnstral wrote:and 1248

these were the only posts made by dunn this day.
In post 1571, Dunnstral wrote:I've moved on from xtoxm in case that wasn't clear.
it wasn't, and you're late to the party. i feel i'm pretty obvtown at this point, and a lot of players have called me town.
In post 1572, Dunnstral wrote:I would like to better understand why lld is currently being wagoned and where else we should be wagoning
for someone who has taken a hard stance of being opposed to the lld wagon, why has it taken so long to ask this question?

part 2
: dunnstral is playing his scum meta

we've done a fairly deep meta dive on dunn, and we believe we've found a characteristic of dunn's scum play. it is present in this game.
we did an experiment of this by having me pull links in dunn's game history direct to his iso, ones that we hadn't looked at before, and showing them blind to auro. auro would try to make a read on dunn using only his iso. i showed him 5 games of psuedo random alignments. some of them he was confident in, and called quickly, a couple he said he was unsure and guessing a little - but he called all of them correctly.

here are the links i gave to auro. i've spoilered the alignments in case you'd like to perform the experiment yourself:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Spoiler:
scum

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Spoiler:
town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Spoiler:
town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Spoiler:
scum

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
Spoiler:
town


when dunn is town he provides insightful reads that are well explained. when he is scum, this is not always the case, especially early in the game. he is prone to making blanket statements such as "i like [player]" with little or no justification. as town, he just goes straight into explaining his positions. auro looked over these iso's, with a focus on identifying non backed up blanket statements. the tell itself is not absolute - there are some instances of him doing it as town - but they are much rarer. people may cheery pick these to refute our case, but i'll reiterate: auro called dunn's alignment correctly every time.

instances of dunn doing it this game:
In post 1053, Dunnstral wrote:I like Dannflor for town after thinking about it. I always have, but I'm less reserved about this read. I don't buy into mastina's case here
In post 1053, Dunnstral wrote:I agree that a50 looks like town. Not a strong read
In post 1055, Dunnstral wrote:And I don't like DGB on 37
In post 1055, Dunnstral wrote:And I do like Dann, Ceph, jjh, and to a cautious extent lld
In post 1571, Dunnstral wrote:The worst/Winter Flakes/Titus: This group feels unreadable for me; I want to say there's probably scum in this group
could auro have gotten lucky with 5 consecutive guesses? well, maybe. but 5 in a row is pretty long odds. auro seems to be pretty good at meta reading dunn, and he has a heavy scumread on dunn this game.

i have been reluctant to post our case, as im worried about dismantling our wagon on lld, but auro feels its time to share.

we still want to eliminate lld today

we feel this is the best flip for the game state, and we have a heavy scum read there also. we scumread both independently. perhaps this will help inform opinions on one of the players who is desperate to wagon outside of lld.
My push on you wasn't bad because you went back to playing the same way as before. I pulled back when you brought in new stuff, I said you felt more natural.
My push on hercule wasn't bad. There are (were?) good reasons to think hercule can be scum, looking at tone isn't a very compelling counter-argument.

What you refer to as waffling is me giving my opinion and trying to figure things out.

is decidedly not waffling, isn't waffling, I'm talking about a post, includes a vote and isn't waffling either, is me acknowledging that my reads aren't at 100%, so while I don't like your scumread on lld or Dann I'm not going to say you're wrong for sure because I don't know. is mostly reads, I end up siding with lld shortly after anyways. maybe, but I'm explaining why I think the vote is fine and I'm already voting them.

Active lurking: You have 1 example and it's really weak, but no I don't think that's fair to say

Meta: You're wrong, I've explained my positions; you've even quoted me doing so in my posts. To be clear, when you say I haven't given 'insightful' explanations this game, you're wrong.

As for not applying the same logic to lld; you wouldn't know whether I would or not. Maybe I will. Fact is nobody has even tried to explain the vote there so all I can do is oppose dgp's political grandstanding in thread, which happens to be wanting lld's elim
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Post Post #1673 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:13 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1427, Cephrir wrote:i guess i'm just lolcatting now because more than half the town is taking mastina seriously and i can't deal with it
Well, that explains your previous post I guess.

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Post Post #1674 (ISO) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:15 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1597, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral
In post 1599, Cephrir wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral
I'm going to need an explanation for these.

Dann and hopkirk suddenly casing me as scum is very conveniently timed.

Dann asserting that I am on the sidelines for lld/hercule is incorrect.

Again, saying I'm fencesitty is wrong
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