Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[Prism]

hot

I mean we could do it now with Prism and Floo, it would also catch Spartan off guard

Granted it would also catch you off guard

I take it you agree quiet is town, then?

[Prism]

I've got to run and grab food but I'll be back in a bit

[Prism]

I am fucking stupid lmao ignore that flow trap I am sorry

[flow trap]

hot

I mean we could do it now with Prism and Floo, it would also catch Spartan off guard

Granted it would also catch you off guard

I take it you agree quiet is town, then?

By comparison but I'm going complete my analysis first

[flow trap]

I am fucking stupid lmao ignore that flow trap I am sorry

Me being oblivious again:

[Prism]

I'm definitely leaning Spartan who is a SR over you who is a NR

I think both slots just said they leaned the other was scum over you

I take it you agree quiet is town, then?

????????

[flow trap]

Oh I update my reads

a lot

so I thought you were asking for my current thoughts

Like my first game I was a ping pong ball it was worse back then since I didn't know how to handle my vote yet and I switched it so much

[flow trap]

I need to learn to not use run-in sentences

"ping pong ball. It was worse"

[Prism]

I mean if you would like to talk about what's keeping that slot null for you, I'd be down!

Do you find it generally town but have certain hangups, or do you have it just hardnull, not very town, etc.?

[flow trap]

Most the evidence I have found is circumstantial

[Prism]

I can try and track through the walls to see what you're talking about specifically, but I would generally agree with that.

His shift on floo Day 2 was unfortunate but he gave a good explanation. It doesn't change the fact that it

happened

, and it can be after the fact but like...his explanation is good. His reads have been good. He hasn't exactly been stubborn in pushing bad votes through or pushing bad reads. The worst parts of this slot to me all came from safebet.

In contrast, he's had some real +town moments between backing off of Salsabil, I don't think anyone else liked his positioning around Enchant but I did-it only made sense to go that hard for like 5/6 pages if he was bussing and needed the credit-and he could be leveraging the paranoia card a lot more than he has today. He's not even remotely trying to take advantage of it. I suppose if the gameplan is leave it to y'all to mess up then sure but again, super speculative/working in reverse.

He's also done a lot more than just suck up to me, he's taken a lot of my approach and started applying it in his own way.

[floo]

I'm not begging desperately, and I know that breaking down emotionally will only hurt me more, both in how accurate my own reads are and how other people perceive me. quiet, why you would suggest me to bawl in order to generate towncred? Keeping a level head is always going to be more important than crying, even if the latter generates a bit of towncred.

Prism looks really bad if I'm voted out today.

I think Prism being scum only makes sense if Fairy is scum though.

I'm not scumleaning Prism atm, but I find that becoming more annoyed, stressed, and determined on single-handedly saving the town creates a good excuse for leading a miselim.

...Is there a reason you started out this day instantly throwing shade on me twice after seeing Fairy nightkilled?

I realized my past reads were wrong. I needed new scumreads. IDK why you think realizing that the pattern of players unlikely to be lynched dying, instead of more controversial players who would be more risky to the scumteam, is suddenly calling you scum. Perhaps it was my bit about the aggressive pushers maybe being scum themselves - I said maybe, I wasn't confident, but it was a possible explanation. The kill might have put you under a little more suspicion, you got a problem with that? Why do you have to shut off discussion about yourself being scum, rather than working through why fairy died instead of a fearkill? Why do you take such a negative tone with it when it is a completely normal observation for anyone to have? It is a NAI post, if I can evaluate my own posts. Why could you not consider why town would have such a thought? You are the person who is not looking to make the best reads, but to prove his own engineered scumread with anything he can find. And you still accuse me of doing the same to Sal.

I didn't see Prism's strategy being wise for scum at that point. Being in the spotlight can easily backfire on scum. I'd normally expect a "town leader" to be only this widely townread with confirmation via role mechanics (e.g. un-counterclaimed power role which is guaranteed to exist or town Cop inspect) or having scumreads lynched. I also struggled to see what Prism's partner would be doing and which pairs would kill esotericzoomer. I didn't think a lot about this and just said what was on my mind (a large part from gut) at that point. Excluding flow trap and quiet, who I thought were less likely to be scum in their own right: (points that I have realized recently, which just elaborate on what I already thought at the time, are in italics)
- Fred was difficult to see continuing to post like that while having Prism in private chat and as backing in the main thread. Plus this pair would be more likely to kill Spartan, who would target Fred D2 and could hit Prism soon too.
- fairy was possible since hard buddying would be forced. If Prism survives the days and nights while continuing to pump out lots of information, everyone will know something's wrong.

There would also be a point where Prism could not feasibly invent a new scumread.

There was nothing Sal/fairy did which would inhibit Prism or suggested that the player couldn't rely on Prism's backing.
- A Spartan teammate would be inhibiting Prism's strategy. Even if Spartan's confident reads in his unique mindset didn't run contrary to Prism's confident reads, he would be pulling attention away from Prism.

Also, Spartan would have a hard time forcing himself into the same opinions as Prism, when that would eventually be forced.

The difficulty in reading Prism was that there would be no obvious behavioral tells whether town or scum except hitting scum (a towntell) or the scumpartner slipping bad (a scumtell). Players like this, in my experience, will be assumed to be town on D1 for their natural high contribution behavior, and it will take something exceptionally scummy they say or else multiple days for them to be lynched as scum. I've learned not to fall into the trap of auto-townreading them; I usually come around to townreading them once they deliver their scum lynches with the help of their reputation and experience. Unfortunately, no scum flips have happened to confirm Prism right (or super wrong for that matter); I have no idea why a groupthink townread would be this severe, especially at this late-game point, even before the vote on me made me foil.

Something about my experience with the game of Mafia. While I was at the stage where I knew the lingo and the basic tells, but not the more complex theory, a highly reputable player suggested post-game a reading strategy to me. Look at a player's overall motives and the eventual consequences of the behavior, in other words whether they are helping town or scum - this might be the only way you can guess one particular habitual lurker's alignment. This doesn't work all the time of course, for example Enchant this game was acting very anti-town but still flipped town, but it might work for that player, who was more experienced and calculated.

I tried to apply this theory to Prism in this game. In short, I found it hard to read Prism, and I wanted more time to use this theory to read him. "I don't know" was another way I could put this; I used a more elaborate sentence like "I'll read this later because I need to wait for ___..." I learned from this game to be willing to say "I don't know" directly.

No unvote, no quickhammer. VOTE: Prism. If it needed to be said, both of us are confirmed scum from each other's town! POVs.

I want Spartan to be the next vote, if you feel confident that I am town and Prism is scum, in order to show that your read on me is legitimate. And I fear scum!Spartan as Prism's partner going non-committal so that he may either quickhammer me once Prism finds another vote (most likely quiet) or bus Prism if necessary. (I'm not ordering you; this is a personal desire from a town!floo POV.)

[Prism]

There is a lot to say to this but first up, why not start from where you left off last time?

IDK why you think realizing that the pattern of players unlikely to be lynched dying, instead of more controversial players who would be more risky to the scumteam, is suddenly calling you scum.

Again, for the 10th time, please explain why fairy was unlikely to be voted if I, the person who actually townread/defended them, am mafia and you, the person shoving them all game, are town.

[Prism]

You going to follow up by talking to any individual players to get try and sell them, or are you just going to cast the global AtE and dip for 2 more days?

[Prism]

The kill might have put you under a little more suspicion, you got a problem with that? Why do you have to shut off discussion about yourself being scum, rather than working through why fairy died instead of a fearkill? Why do you take such a negative tone with it when it is a completely normal observation for anyone to have? It is a NAI post, if I can evaluate my own posts.

1. I started out the day puzzling through the kill and whether I should reconsider you because I expected a quiet shot before eventually reverse engineering it and realizing the answer was absolutely fuckin not
2. You literally have dodged justifying how that statement about shooting widely townread players (Fairy) makes any sense FYPOV as town like 4x now
3. You openly baited the Salsabil slot into getting more mad so you could push her, you opened with a general statement that was clearly targeted at me w/ the 'aggressive, confident' garbage, and now you're crying that I'm too negative because I demanded you justify your garbage.

floo is

shocked

that I am playing aggressively at a scumread that repeatedly refuses to answer basic questions, and is now confirmed scum to me.

If you're upset that the fairy kill didn't actually do shit for you, which is probably why the only substantial comments you've made today are about the nightkill, a bunch of garbage AtE, and nothing about the 3 non-Prism players actively sorting you, maybe you should have shot me instead.

[Prism]

Alright, well, that's enough of that.

It's just hilarious that Quiet is literally begging floo to talk to him, floo supposedly thinks he's town, floo goes "Sorry, globally targeted AtE wall and no real thoughts on specific players other than saying Spartan should vote first, see you in another 48 hours"

[Prism]

floo's last sentence implies he thinks Spartan still townreads him, which suggests he's not really reading Spartan's posts anymore.
I don't if that's NAI being that checked out completely or if floo isn't reading his partner's posts specifically. Maybe he knows and just does it for the WIFOM AtE.

This is just...such a dysfunctional team atm if it is floo/Spartan. I have no idea what they expected or wanted to happen today but I get the feeling this is not it.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3-8

This is Kerið, a lake in the bottom of a volcanic crater. It's thought that the volcano erupted about 3000 years ago and completely belched out its magma core. The caldera's rocky sides are red instead of the more usually seen black. And the lake is at the level of the local water table, not formed by rainfall.

Prism

(1): floo

floo

(1): Prism

Not Voting

(3): flow trap, Spartan117, quiet

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline: February 9, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-02-09 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Prism]

I'm going to call it a night but checklist

-Track flow trap progressions
-Go over Spartan/hopefully get more out of him
-Maybe meta Spartan

I'll try to make time early in the morning but if not I'll swing by later in the night

[Prism]

@floo, I've got the least for you.

Prism, I've got the least to say to you right now.

Shit pump the brakes quiet is playing both sides of the fence, DEFCON 5

Yeah I'm not asleep yet don't judge me

[quiet]

quiet, why you would suggest me to bawl in order to generate towncred? Keeping a level head is always going to be more important than crying, even if the latter generates a bit of towncred.

Catching up, was planning to respond more holistically, but this jumped out and if there's any chance you are around still, floo, I'd like to engage, so I'm posting this asap.

I don't understand what you mean by this exactly. I don't think I suggested you bawl. I wanted you to show up and scumhunt, put in effort, try to prove how you are town by showing your work. I wanted to engage with you today, to be able to bounce questions off of you, to try to understand your progression, to have real time interactiosn that would set my concerns about you just waiting and carefully curating posts to make sure you didn't scumslip or show a partner.

I'm not asking for an emotional response. The entire reason I voteswapped off of you yesterday, a thing that VERY MUCH makes me look scummy going into what I'm already stressed about as going to be just a hellish 3 person elo, assuming I don't manage to just be categorically wrong on my Prism read, along with aparently the rest of the thread, who are ALL at this point uniformly SRing you (which of course a prismScumbuddy would, but man, you've got everyone fooled if you are town here)....

the entire reason I voteswapped off you was to try and use today to engage with you, and sort you.


and you havn't really showed up for that.


and I've been begging you to do so this entire day, as Prism just stated.





so please, I'll bawl and beg so you don't have to. Please, show up at any time tmmrw and help me hunt. Help me figure out who scumGodPrism's partner is, help me see how Prism has so bamboozled me and the rest of the town into running this game into the ground, help me understand why scumPrism positions themselves the way they did in pushing you yesterday so loudly. Work with me a bit in real time, so that I have a chance to see how your reads develop, a chance to gage your reactions.



Floo, if you are town here, you are going to HAVE to help me see it, because right now, I don't. I'm going to throw the game if you are town. That's why I've been asking you stuff all day.




I'm going to read the rest of what you said now, and try to respond more thoughtfully. I'm going to do my absolute best to answer you in good faith, and try not to let my strong Prism TR confbias me against you. This is my commitment. I'm asking you to make some of the same effort, please.

[quiet]

just saw the time of the post, realized it was two hours ago, and that i'm probably not going to get a response tonight.

I'm still messed up with sleep cause of my very exciting all night work call, and I'm finding myself somewhere between decently and really frustrated. Probably better for me to step away and just sleep then post in that state.

prism, if there's something in your set of posts pre-floo you want me to chime in on, lmk and I'll do so in the am/i'll re-read and try to engage tmmrw.

[flow trap]

Spoiler:

The kill might have put you under a little more suspicion, you got a problem with that? Why do you have to shut off discussion about yourself being scum, rather than working through why fairy died instead of a fearkill? Why do you take such a negative tone with it when it is a completely normal observation for anyone to have? It is a NAI post, if I can evaluate my own posts.

1. I started out the day puzzling through the kill and whether I should reconsider you because I expected a quiet shot before eventually reverse engineering it and realizing the answer was absolutely fuckin not
2. You literally have dodged justifying how that statement about shooting widely townread players (Fairy) makes any sense FYPOV as town like 4x now
3. You openly baited the Salsabil slot into getting more mad so you could push her, you opened with a general statement that was clearly targeted at me w/ the 'aggressive, confident' garbage, and now you're crying that I'm too negative because I demanded you justify your garbage.

floo is

shocked

that I am playing aggressively at a scumread that repeatedly refuses to answer basic questions, and is now confirmed scum to me.

If you're upset that the fairy kill didn't actually do shit for you, which is probably why the only substantial comments you've made today are about the nightkill, a bunch of garbage AtE, and nothing about the 3 non-Prism players actively sorting you, maybe you should have shot me instead.

This is the most town post I have seen all game

[quiet]

floo's last sentence implies he thinks Spartan still townreads him, which suggests he's not really reading Spartan's posts anymore.
I don't if that's NAI being that checked out completely or if floo isn't reading his partner's posts specifically. Maybe he knows and just does it for the WIFOM AtE.

This is just...such a dysfunctional team atm if it is floo/Spartan. I have no idea what they expected or wanted to happen today but I get the feeling this is not

This. So much this.

Like, so so very much this that it has me slamming my head into a wall because it’s like

Idk I feel like a Spartan/floo team could have targeted Flow Trap for a miselim today after killing you.
That seems like the best play. The game was set up for that. Get one of fairy, you, or me to vote them. It’s plausible.

Or they could have pushed me. That’s true of both teams. I think there’s enough evidence of you and others being suspicious of me that it would have felt more natural.

Why did they choose to go at you? Did you just take that choice away by not dropping floo? Did floo not expect that?

This + Spartan’s positioning yesterday happening more from an uninformed POV than from a distancing POV makes me feel real a bit concerned about Flow Trap. Though again, my individual read/vibe check likes Flow Trap more.

[quiet]

That seems like the best play. The game was set up for that. Get one of fairy, you, or me to vote them. It’s plausible.

Well, prism would be dead in this cause so this wouldn’t be plausible, but fairy wanted flow trap more than anyone else, and you wanted floo, and if they can only kill one, I just don’t see why floo/Spartian don’t just kill you yesterday.

The fairy kill incentive happens so much more when flow trap is scum.