Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[unwnd]

I really don't know where I'd defend myself frankly, I feel satisfied with my previous answers, if anything I'd like to convince you into a shot I'd prefer

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

why is STT a good shot?

[unwnd]

I think STT is a good shot because he borders in the null void yet he has enough content and opinions (sparingly so) so take make an educated decision if he's just town. If scum however it makes me rethink a few things and I don't like playing in games and thinking I am just 100% right

And let me reiterate that I am not advocating a shot onto STT because I think it will be town, no, I don't say 'shoot a townread to clear them!' that's just poor play. I'm saying to shoot him because I believe his equity as scum has gone up but he is a hard player to case as he'll always rely on his Bayesian nonsense to wriggle out of a situation. I just don't believe he has enough tenacity and is missing a good amount of pro-activity that I associate with town.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

Interesting

but why is he a better shot than

o b v i o u s s c u m s i r c a k e z ?

:3

[unwnd]

I don't think cakez is scum and I can't parse your argument outside of ' just trust me bro lol'

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

his tunnel on me is superficial in a scummy way, he actively ignored me evaluating him and continued to tunnel me while calling my content posts spam to discredit me, and that is outside his town range, and him pushing a town shot to get shot for replacing out is pretty consistent with his approach to scum play.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

HUB is going for the spam replace in approach to try to overwhelm the thread and older reads on their predecessor
No one should fall for it

scum cakez quotes himself quoting this empty shade, town cakez does not

Spoiler:

[unwnd]

Cakez has tunneled Imperium too

I just think him being unreasonable errs towards town behavior that doesn't give a fuck

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

I've made that mistake when reading cakez before and I don't really intend to do it again

he's actually not that unreasonable as town

I'm just saying, if you've never tried a Cake Shot -- they're delicious

Spoiler:

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I want evidence on this Cakez meta you're pushing, HUB.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

If you want me to post a Cakez meta, you have to post a gif or an image of either a cake or a cakez shot

[SirCakez]

I can't even remember a time someone has successfully used meta to scum case me

[SirCakez]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

he literally just perspective slipped himself scum lmao

[MUSHSHAGANA]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

he literally just perspective slipped himself scum lmao

You'll need to walk me through it.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

pushing cakez does nothing to 'salvage my slot' unless he is a hit lmao, if he was town he'd just get the gun and shoot me, so the only way my slot is 'salvaged' by pushing him is if he is shot and flips red

[ScrewTheTells]

It's a busy time at work, which means I work an average of 12-14 hour days + an hour commute every day. I'm playing in a hydra because I don't have time to post consistently, you Carrot Top looking clown. Why would I delay this as either alignment? Why would I promise a big case on peta if I couldn't even write a case on peta? Do you think I have butterflies in my stomach because I'm afraid of you ripping my argument apart?

Well, my first guess is that you're more likely to delay it as scum because maybe you changed your mind on how to approach the push after seeing other players' reactions to your hype trailers for the Greatest Tell Ever. Look I understand there's plenty of reason to do it as any alignment, but the net result might not be completely symmetrical, so I can't help but notice. You can see why that's weird right? I'm hesitant to call it scummy because I'm wary that I'm way too deep in confirmation bias here.

Anyway can I assume you've basically said what you've been saving up to say in the post 1718 and 1719?

I actually think the reasoning is good. The most convincing part of the argument to me is

If Peta is town, then my expectation is that he's looking at the sum of our posting - instead of cherrypicking attacks that sound good and hiding behind "oh this is just a paranoid flash!", he'd be railing on us for not having clear reads, not having the influence on the gun he expected, stuff like that.

Which I'm finding more convincing because of our confirmed scum in Duchess who was shot for pretty much the same thing with Lotus. The one thing I think that goes against this is that (if I remember correctly) petapan did say that Imperium's reads were not clear, or fencesitting, or something like that. So that did happen. But most importantly, I think petapan's explanation of his gambit on Day 3 is more likely to come from scum than town. There's just way more scenarios where a scum wants to try that to get someone off their back, than a town actually doing a very very convoluted gambit. Now that I think about it, this is a net scum indicator.

Also peta's been making nonsense arguments on me like:

i think stt looks bad for trying to take advantage of me pushing you on day 2

Can you quote me on this? I think I was pushing Imperium before you replaced in?

--- for Not_Mafia ---

For someone called ScrewTheTell, he sure does a lot of wikitell scum hunting

What does this mean? What's "wikitell scum hunting"? Is doing that a scum tell? I can't parse what you're trying to say.

--- for HUB ---
Can I assume you've finished catching up now? What's your scum list? Is the list on post 1677 still accurate?

[ScrewTheTells]

I'm saying to shoot him because I believe his equity as scum has gone up but he is a hard player to case as he'll always rely on his Bayesian nonsense to wriggle out of a situation.

What do you mean by wriggle? The only thing that bayesian nonesense does is quantify what people usually don't quantify when they do a wholistic read on people. Do you have examples of where you think I'm wriggling out of a proper explanation for my reads and actions?

[WhemeStar]

I townread HUB hub don’t betray me

[WhemeStar]

I am onboard a cakez stt shot

[Not_Mafia]

I townread HUB hub don’t betray me

This feels like whiteknighting

[Not_Mafia]

What does this mean? What's "wikitell scum hunting"? Is doing that a scum tell? I can't parse what you're trying to say.

You have a very formulaic playstyle for someone whose name suggests otherwise

[SirCakez]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

pushing cakez does nothing to 'salvage my slot' unless he is a hit lmao, if he was town he'd just get the gun and shoot me, so the only way my slot is 'salvaged' by pushing him is if he is shot and flips red

I can't even parse this

My point was pushing me gets a town shot instead of you. Your slot needed a strong push elsewhere otherwise you were looking like a pretty likely candidate to eat the bullet

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Okay. I've heard enough. Everyone has checked in.

If anyone still worries I might shoot them: your chance will soon expire. If I am going to shoot you, there will be no swaying or persuading me to change my mind.

You have one hour.

If you feel regret after I list my shots and you see your name, you have only yourself to blame.



In the meantime!

If ANYONE has a shot they would rather see taken, so much that they'll step in the path of any other shot, /spill/. If you don't have any PARTICULAR shot you want to see strongly, say that too but don't take up too much space doing it. I'm looking for people whose top shot is such a strong read that me letting it go is fucking criminal. I have a couple I'm eyeballing and I expect to see those people repeat themselves for this purpose, or I might forget and decide maybe they didn't mean it that strong anyway.

Phase 2 begins in an hour or so. I have a walk in bitter, freezing goddamned cold to take.

Yes, people are gonna miss this train. I do not care, I don't need a complete census.

[Dunnstral]

Ah, so it isn't a complete loss going into the next phase.

I think, Dunn, that the issue you're having here may be that the scummiest person in the game is Not_Mafia, and I don't trust myself to read that slot confidently. I think it's VERY SCUMMY, even taking NM's playstyle into consideration, but I have no prior experience. I'm taking a gamble on the basis of a SINGLE SOLITARY POST, "Who is Duchess?". And if NM is town, I think NM misses every. single. solitary. time. It's damn near gamethrowing to shoot there unless I'm 100% certain beyond all doubt, and I am distinctly not.

Of the active players, there's a balance to take into account, as well. I'm balancing scumminess and non-trash play. The scummiest one in the game is still a gamble if their play or their reads are total crap and I'm not confident about them. If I'm gambling, right, I want the greatest return on investment and the lowest risk. So I'm aiming to hit the scummiest slot that I am confident can hit scum themselves if they are in fact town.

That's a tough choice to make!

Would you not put yourself in the top 5 when you combine both considerations? I mean, you aren't obvtown, you said it yourself. But no one outside of the lurkslots is obvscum either, and none of them are so obvscum that with the NEXT DAMN SHOT controlling the fate of the game, I would want to gamble it on them. And most people here, let's face it, have trash reads. Just, as a matter of course. You and unwnd have the same scumpool, you said THAT yourself too. Why would I not include you if I include unwnd?

Sure but I don't have the same mindset and wouldn't let somebody else's reads keep me from shooting them.

If you're thinking of shooting me because you think I'd be reasonable with the gun then that's kind of fair but I always think you should go for the slot that looks the worst