Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3-9

Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010, and many of the photographs taken during the eruption showed incredble amounts of lightning within the spewn ash clouds. Lightning during volcanic eruptions is not unusual. Although cold ash, rocks, and even molten rocks are neutrally charged, superheated ash is a different matter. Highly charged particles, and more importantly, billions of charged particles with great separation between them, can create lightning storms that rival the strongest storms that weather systems produce.

Prism

(1): floo

floo

(1): Prism

Not Voting

(3): flow trap, Spartan117, quiet

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline: February 9, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-02-09 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Prism]

Will be around in about ~2 hours if anything has anything they want to run by me, we'll see how long I can hold up

[Prism]

Idk I feel like a Spartan/floo team could have targeted Flow Trap for a miselim today after killing you.
That seems like the best play. The game was set up for that. Get one of fairy, you, or me to vote them. It’s plausible.

Why did they choose to go at you? Did you just take that choice away by not dropping floo? Did floo not expect that?.

I think it's worth reviewing the start of the day.

Spartan was noticeably not happy I was townreading you, and he was still pushing flow trap. That makes sense for Spartan as town but it fits with your question.

floo's first post, which shaded me while simultaneously banking on NK spec, was way after I posted things like 1676.

I don't think they expected me to come out of the gate on a rampage, which is understandable given how deferential I was yesterday, but I fucking hate losing. Hell no was I going to sit back and go "idk maybe flow trap?" again

Finally, while I feel bad for them if this is the case...it's pretty clear that Spartan has not been able to put the time and effort he might have wanted into today in order to do something more forceful. He's here in spurts but it's deeply frustrating to try and break up an actively posting townbloc when you have stuff going on irl. If the plan was to push flow trap or bus if needed, it required Spartan to be here, and he just hasn't been able to deliver on that.

[Prism]

re: NK spec, I think a combination of killing me being obvious/hoping fairy would help both slots makes sense. Fairy shot helps floo because "I was pushing them!" (but were really going to struggle getting that through, hope is more on pushing flow trap-as I've been skeptical too, as have you at times, Fairy kill helps, and meanwhile Fairy did not townread floo and had me as locktown/willing to follow if needed). Fairy also kept going back and forth on Spartan.

I think it's easy to say in hindsight I'm the better shot but the knowledge of what actually happened is not exactly available to them N3.

I don't really know who would even make sense with me as scum at this point. flow trap votes, I say I'm fine ending the day. You vote, game is over. You're not scum with me and anyone who suggests that is ??? wilding. Spartan is for some reason caving to my pressure, when he's under no pressure as scum with me, he just has to push me/AFK vote me, blitzing if you misvote and pushing flow trap in 3 way if you don't. floo laying down for the bus is

somehow

the most plausible but is...not the case.

[Prism]

My town read on floo was not based off any read on you or quiet and im not sure as to why you keep insinuating that, saying that its somehow unfair that i townread him but didnt you because you both did similar things doesnt make everything the same

I think you're missing the point here. I'm not saying that it's necessarily comparative; I get why you townread him in a vacuum.

But why did those same qualities not register for me/quiet? This isn't comparative-I'm thinking about why "floo has those qualities -> townread floo" "prism/quiet have these qualities -> don't townread them". I think you go into this a bit, but I want to be clear about what I was asking.

I think your point about floo being a major Frederick alternative is a good one!

I think saying revisiting Day 3 and realizing me/quiet were giving more/better reads than you gave credit for is understandable. I also get that you were worried about us being LAMIST, but do you see the difficulty here? Your thought process here is somewhat plausible but very general and had gaps that are general enough to make them easy to fill in now, but difficult to verify the veracity of. I'm wondering if you can be a bit more specific as to how your interpretations about me and quiet differed Day 2/Day 3, rather than just giving us the general overview. You kept the floo read coming into Day 3 even after seeing Frederick flip, after all.

Another example of being more specific that I'm really curious about is the "solid enough reason" to trust quiet is that you're alluding to in 2015

[Prism]

Working my way back through the flow trap ISO I'm pretty struck by how different the floo we have now is from the first few pages, where he's a lot more lighthearted/easygoing in his first "serious" vote on flow trap.

I'm more trying to read for flow trap specifically atm but things like that, the vote, and interactions like the below have me wanting to compare the interactions between the slots from floo's side.

You townread three people who have voted you.

I started the wagon. safebet made a point of putting you a step away from death.

Spartan voted you for no stated reason other than "pressure"

(61). In particular, I find the Spartan townread strange

because he has posted only three times

, but you find him "genuine" (121). Meanwhile, you are scumreading esotericzoomer (implied in 114),

who is the person who has questioned the votes on you a lot

while staying away from an explicit townread. Do you think the wagon on you has a legitimate or beneficial purpose?

I fail to see the relevance

This is a valid reason

The "I'm so confused" card is not one I find town and also it felt like a pocket attempt

To answer your question, yes; pressure is a valid reason and it has clearly benefited us as it was a good means for a discussion

(I think this is minorly +town for flow trap but I more just want to point out that I think we haven't really put much attention towards the floo side of interactions...which, granted, he isn't confirmed yet to anyone else, but uhhhh)

[Prism]

I'm going to pass out so I'll come back to this but early game flow trap matches up pretty well to his Part 1 wall, granted he's definitely citing his own posts as he goes, but I already feel a lot better about him just from seeing the early floo interactions.

[Prism]

Flow trap, how is the rest of the wall coming?

[quiet]

Hello hello, the slowdown in the thread is interesting.

One day left! I'd also like to see the final bit of the flow trap wall, but once you are done with it, I would like to chat about the game in general. If possible.

[flow trap]

Fine, I'll do it now if it gets the game going again

[Prism]

Do you have any thoughts on 2027/2030 quiet?

Me not being around until super late last night didn't really help, but I'll be around after work to finish up going through flow trap.

I'm pretty close to wanting to end the day but I do think looking at the floo side of interactions before Day 3 is worth taking a closer look at.

[quiet]

Looks like im a little late to the party, didn't exactly expect to make it all the way to d3 aha, unlike flow trap i didn't write up any notes before hand (although i am starting to doubt by the time stamps of these posts how much was pre start of d3?) as i guess i feel even if i make it to the next day my opinion will change after i see the nk flip and the usefulness of the information will have expired.

In post 1609, Prism wrote:
To be clear, my instinct is you/floo or floo/Spartan.


I'm curious why you are so sure its not quiet? You seem to not even entertain the option, from my perspective its 2 scum out of flow trap you and quiet as I get much more of a townie read from floo than i do from any of the 3 of you, but im still entertaining the idea that it could be a floo/flow trap team etc just from my perspective I'm less sure about it.

This is Spartian's first post of today.


Do you think that Spartian is still defending floo here + trying to play for a win?



idk, it's giving me uninformed vibes

[flow trap]

Correction, I will do it when my computer isn't lagging

[Prism]

I've also done a lot of thinking on claim order for Day 3.

I think it should go flow trap -> Spartan -> quiet. If we're in a no doc world it might not matter, but if floo flips roleblocker, suddenly we're put in a position to where we want to make someone guess what to claim. I think it wouldn't surprise us regardless of who Spartan winds up cc'ing, but if it's flow trap we want to make him take the 50/50 of clearing Spartan.

[quiet]

oh, I just saw "you should go review the start of today" in 2027 so I did that without reading further in.

Responding to 2027, where you cover some of this... yeah, timeline could work. Came in hoping not to have to bus floo and play for the win, but ready to go vs. flow trap or possibly even me. Let me read what you wrote more closely, review the early posts, and then follow up with my thoughts

[Prism]

This is Spartian's first post of today.


Do you think that Spartian is still defending floo here + trying to play for a win?

idk, it's giving me uninformed vibes

It gives me the exact opposite lmao. He's feeling around for the daystart and is open the possibility of floo without openly flipping the read immediately or really pondering the alternatives

[quiet]

@spartian

Another example of being more specific that I'm really curious about is the "solid enough reason" to trust quiet is that you're alluding to in 2015

I am also curious about this, want to quote it to highlight it. I ask a very similar thing earlier, but I don't want it to get lost.

[Prism]

Actually if there's a doctor and they're not on me tonight I don't know what they're smoking

[quiet]

yeah i'm going to go read it more and think.

Spartan is prepping to go after me in that post it seems, and keeping you alive for that would be the play there.

Do you think it was sufficiently obvious that you would fight for my slot if I got pushed? From my perspective, you've been like one bad bout of paranoia away from wanting me dead a couple times this game, and I think scum might be willing to make that play. I don't know though, seems thin for scum to bet the game on that

[quiet]

in regards to 2030, I think that floo is confscum to me, and seems to have given up.

flow trap can be bussing there, though; I'm very back and forth on the two slots. It's hard for me to differentiate busy irl and scummy progression at the moment in regards to spartian; I would like to have gotten more out of today, and I'm hopeful that flow trap can chat with me a bit tmmrw ahead of the deadline.

I'm fine with that claim order, and I think we should get everyone to pre-commit to it.

[quiet]

but yeah i'm not sure how helpful the claim order will be exactly, other than it's another chance to see how convincingly scum can lie

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3-10

Stuðlagil Basalt Canyon was underwater until a few years ago, when the River Jökulsá's water level fell. The tall hexagonal columns are fairly common in Iceland, but can be found wherever fast, quick-cooling lava flows happened. When molten basalt cools, it can shrink without breaking in the vertical direction. But horizontally, shrinkage causes cracks, which results in the hexagonal shapes of the columns.

Prism

(1): floo

floo

(1): Prism

Not Voting

(3): flow trap, Spartan117, quiet

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline: February 9, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-02-09 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Prism]

I think it's really hard to diagnose a specific motive in the question. He could be preparing to push you, he could be feeling things out/seeing if there's holes to push either against you or against me, or he just wants to seem plausibly sorting and dialoguing without much ulterior motive.

My point was more just that it's not really +town, especially in comparison to floo/flow trap. Pushing flow trap is an idea but I went right for the throat, forced the 1v1 the moment I was sure, and flow trap definitely kicked it up a notch well before Spartan really got his grip on the day.

[Prism]

you/flow trap*

damn oo sounds

[quiet]

well, we know doctor should be on Prism with 100% frequency when they exist. RB might catch them, maybe we get lucky and flip RB tonight confirming doctor existence; if RB not flipped, then chance that doc is RBed, chance that doc doesnt exist. Best outcome for town is floo RB flip, then prism can't really die. Not going to worry about it too much till tmmrw and we see flips; I trend towards thinking doc doesn't exist but what do I know.