Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[Prism]

I definitely agree that flow trap can be bussing but he's played today well, his analysis isn't bad at all, and Spartan's day is....extremely questionable, and prior days weren't exactly home runs with the "TvS" and "scum on the wagon" but being unable to really back those up coherently.

[quiet]

My point was more just that it's not really +town, especially in comparison to floo/flow trap. Pushing flow trap is an idea but I went right for the throat, forced the 1v1 the moment I was sure, and flow trap definitely kicked it up a notch well before Spartan really got his grip on the day.

This is true. But I've seen days get away from town before.

I do think flow trap has done a really good job in presenting their point; and I had a light tr on flow trap early because of the manor of their chaos. I maybe need to move back to that.

The thing that I feel like will help determine flow trap's alignment at this stage is their conclusions, their review of day3, and generally, how they engages once they feels like they're totally caught up. Their day has been really strong, I'm just waiting on them to take it home a little.

I was thinking about what I wanted from Spartian, and I realized I still don't feel like I really got it from Flow Trap yet either:

I want both of them to give a detailed breakdown about why they are or aren't considering me tomorrow. They've both said I'm townier, but like, when did that happen, how did it happen, and what's the progression that got there?

[Prism]

I don't want to prognosticate too much into someone who's clearly given up, but I feel like floo is not just trying to give 0 info but actually frustrated. This could be fake, but I don't think he has that much reason to be if it's you or flow trap, and there's definitely no reason to give up on the day entirely if Spartan's vote is still on the table.

Neither of them played badly at all before today but for whatever reason the wheels have really come off the wagon. I'm going to finish up on flow trap/do the floo interactions, but for my part from everything I've seen I'm think it's just Spartan. I'm not asking you to sheep me 100% beyond the grave, again the name of the game is not "blindly follow the SE", but I really don't see much reason to townread this slot other than for pure effort...and harddefending a scum slot.

flow trap's day is arguably NAI but it's definitely not scummy imo. The last 48 hours of Day 2 was really,

really

bad but the rest has been pretty fucking good, even if his playstyle is frustrating sometimes, we know that he's like this as town too.

[Prism]

The N1 Esoteric kill was also interesting from a Spartan POV but given that scum often shoot for vague PR feelings, I still see it, would need to go back to read how Esoteric felt about floo.

[Prism]

Okay I have to get back to work but I WILL BE BACK LATER, feel free to shoot ideas and I'll answer when I get off

[Prism]

As a side note I'm pretty happy with this day; I definitely strongarmed this but I think today is where my style's strengths have really gotten to shine. It's extremely difficult to maintain legitimate realtime dialogue as scum, and we've just been able to sharpen and sanity check each other's ideas for a week straight. This shit is impossible to play against as scum and it's why running interference and being present is so important, like I came into today still leaning Spartan town and now it seems virtually impossible for it to be anyone but Spartan.

[quiet]

eh, we can chat about the strongarming thing after the game, but I don't necessarily think that you did take over this game; you were hard on floo yesterday, you made the tough call today, which confs you as town or loses the game on the spot/I lose by not letting up on my TR of you. At this stage, I'm going to abuse the hell out of my locktown to try and get as much info out of today as possible.

When strongarm becomes uncomfortable to me it's when people refuse to engage in dialog, refuse to change any opinions or reads, and start saying things like "god X is just confscum here, anyone hwo doesn't agree is obvscum, hurry up and elim already", that kinda thing.

I'll 100% be keeping your spartian read in mind.

[floo]

A collection of thoughts.

@Prism It should have been obvious from the absence of a Doctor claim anywhere that I would have claimed Vanilla Town. Why were you insistent on me claiming?

I said I townleaned on Spartan at the end of D2. It makes sense that Spartan doesn't use his potential if Prism is scum, though. I recently said Spartan was inhibiting Prism, but I realized this was surface-level because Spartan's individual pushes are more isolated and don't really affect Prism.

@quiet I agree an underlying assumption in my Sal read was that she played less defensively as town. Part of the reason was that other players argued the "possible town line," which works in varying degrees for any scumtell, instead of an underlying assumption:
- Sal is overdefensive. - This is an uncontroversial statement.
- Sal fears being scumread more than typically for town. - This might be more controversial, but everyone can agree that there is more fear or anxiety than one would expect of town in Sal.
- Sal's overdefensiveness and fear is an anomaly in her playstyle: she does not play this way as town or plays this way as scum. - If this assumption is false, the town plausibility argument is convincing. The "no town" and "only scum" are actually not the same: the former is what I am investigating if I can only find town Sal former games, and the latter is also investigated in addition to the former if I can find a scum Sal game. The one game was not enough evidence, so my assumption is less substantiated. "Even if Salsabil Faria is by habit a panicky and overdefensive player, she is acting more panicky and overdefensive than even these types of players in my experience." In my experience, drawing from the chat players who fit the overdefensive player archetype and I've played enough games with to have an idea of unique tells (like X player is more panicky as town than scum, Y player begs most players who votes them to unvote regardless of alignment).

fairy was widely townread in that I was the only person who scumread him at that point. A LYLO strategy focused on lynching fairy would rely on me voting fairy and the scumteam quickhammering: a viable strategy, but pushing me would have a greater chance of winning than relying on me to continue scumreading fairy. I'll concede that fairy was not unlynchable, but more independent than quiet and more prone to changing reads (even if just for being a recent sub). I could have phrased that better, and in retrospect fairy was lynchable though a harder push than me, not entirely unlynchable. My mistake.

You have found a better LYLO strategy than waiting for me to push fairy. Good job at realizing I was not confident enough in my fairy read to hand the game automatically to you and was still willing to hear evidence about reading the fairy slot - it's a shame you're not employing the same careful technique in the high-stakes LYLO.

Prism, you have the clear advantage in this situation and if town should have already stopped playing the "annoyed" card, and you stop thinking you can explain all my posts. I have talked about my past motives, often citing personal experience or a specific thought process you have no idea of. You're trying to irritate me at this point, while I am trying to be calm, it seems that you have learned nothing from the Sal drama while I have learned a lot.

1877 yes, you were doing postgame analysis, so you were admitting your nightkill preferences honestly. That's OK, a lot of players do that. That doesn't incriminate you specifically, why do you have to be so defensive? Realize that your annoyed tone with the 'damn' and all is counterproductive because the emotional phrase makes it unclear what you mean, whether you are arguing that it does not in fact incriminate yourself or you have realized it incriminates yourself.

[floo]

Spartan the more likely partner for him and Prism avoiding each other more. Spartan's reads on me feel more pockety, as in unnatural. They would only stated after the Sal push started; I don't see how me writing essays gets Spartan being silent on the floo read to "oh he's my strongest townread." flow trap, he could be an actor, but his progression from the early D1 townread on me to an eventual preference over Prism (even though both sound town), is more natural. Plus Spartan is more likely to get away with a bus. One reason to think Spartan is the town is that he has been more apt at materializing and hard-arguing a push, but he doesn't seem too confident in his push in not voting Fred until later D2 and suspecting quiet for some time.

You credit the spartian/prism as more viable. I find it really, really interesting that you find Spartan's reads "pockety and unnatral". This is something that was raised as a concern, that the read was a little lightweight. Prism was pushing really hard in thread for spartian to justify their TR on you (as prismTown, to try and see if spartian was trying to save their scumbuddy, which seems a tough awkward, or to try and resort; as prismScum, to shade by association, I guess? To try and push them off the read?).

I reread the Spartan iso before I realized that he did in fact have a townlean on me on D1. The way I see Prism + Spartan working, Spartan can keep defending me to maintain distance from Prism. He doesn't need to ever come to scumread me because Prism only needs your vote or flow trap's vote on me before Spartan can quickhammer. spartan changing his mind after he said his read on me was strong D2 would definitely look like scummy flip-flopping. In short, scum!Spartan doesn't have room to change his mind on me, and he doesn't need to anyway.

[floo]

Scum!Prism pushing Scumpartner Spartan to justify the TR is necessary to a hard push on me. Both players will not change their mind, at this point it's beating a dead horse and they just reiterate their former points. Even if they analyze all my posts in detail, they will just be elaborating on their former points and thinking the same in the end. Prism is less incriminated for stubbornness because I am 100% scum from his town!POV, but the stubbornness and refusing to change their mind, or refute the central point/assumption of each other's arguments.

For example, Prism's central assumption in the Sal argument is that a kind of experienced player having a very wrong assumption about how a common scumtell works is probably scum, while Spartan believes that it's possible to be wrong there. Note that there are multiple questions entailed in that:
- Is floo really experienced enough to know? (I honestly just don't want to build a playermeta on this site so early or "import" one from another site, so I've been hesitant to describe my experience in all its details.)
- Was floo's assumption "very wrong" or only partly wrong or situationally wrong?
- Is overdefensiveness a common scumtell whose theory a semi-experienced (in partly experienced, not the formal term for this site's newbie games) player should know?
- How scummy is it for a player to have wrong assumptions about the game and use them to push a scumread?
Any one of these points can be argued to vindicate me.
1. Spartan or I could say I am a chat player with different experiences on a different site, where defensiveness is seen in a different way.
2. The overdefensiveness argument could be wrong only situationally because Salsabil Faria's playermeta is unique.
3. How much experience do I have to tell the subtleties of this scumtell? Being overdefensive in itself is a lean scumtell, I remember seeing it as a scumtell in a few games. I look less often at how specifically players choose to defend themselves; this is harder but more accurate. In one game, I noticed a scum was voting a stated townread as a counterwagon instead of panicking through the use of words.
4. Players have different perspectives about how tells work, sometimes wrong in your opinion, I could argue I was situationally wrong there and there would be room for town to make that kind of mistake.

[Prism]

Prism, you have the clear advantage in this situation and if town should have already stopped playing the "annoyed" card, and

you stop thinking you can explain all my posts.

I have talked about my past motives, often citing personal experience or a specific thought process you have no idea of. You're trying to irritate me at this point, while I am trying to be calm,

it seems that you have learned nothing from the Sal drama while I have learned a lot.

I am literally confirmed mafia and you're upset that I am wrong (?) about the motivations behind your posts and upset that I...am making mistakes as town? What "lessons" does scum me have to learn from the Sal drama?

If anyone wants to me to respond to the full wall I can but unless someone actually thinks I might be scum I don't see why I need to keep doing this, if he's legitimately upset that I'm like, pushing him for a reason he thinks is wrong or dumb or w/e in his mind, I'd rather just let it be.

[Prism]

Like I am sorry if you feel that Salsabil was legitimately scummy and that I was wrong to push you for that but you're not an infallible god of the scum alignment and I'm not stupid for voting you.

I'm going to drop this but if you want we can revisit it postgame/dead thread.

[quiet]

You have found a better LYLO strategy than waiting for me to push fairy. Good job at realizing I was not confident enough in my fairy read to hand the game automatically to you and was still willing to hear evidence about reading the fairy slot - it's a shame you're not employing the same careful technique in the high-stakes LYLO.

ouch, that one stung.

Floo, do you really feel like I have not been fair towards your slot, or that I have not been employing careful techniques in trying to re-evaluate my read on you? What gives you that feeling?

[flow trap]

Don't mind me typing the rest of my wall and spelling suspicion every way but the right way

[flow trap]

I'm scumreading floo based off of how he pushed Sal and how he reacted to what he got.

This does kind of require the Salsabil slot to be town

and have a town reaction but my whole point here is that it felt like floo was working backwards from a desired answer of Salsabil scum rather than coming to it organically. This is one of the few tells I put a lot of faith in and have a good track record on.

@Prism

Is there any chance that you would NK Fairy to push Floo?

[floo]

Prism, you have the clear advantage in this situation and if town should have already stopped playing the "annoyed" card, and

you stop thinking you can explain all my posts.

I have talked about my past motives, often citing personal experience or a specific thought process you have no idea of. You're trying to irritate me at this point, while I am trying to be calm,

it seems that you have learned nothing from the Sal drama while I have learned a lot.

I am literally confirmed mafia and you're upset that I am wrong (?) about the motivations behind your posts and upset that I...am making mistakes as town? What "lessons" does scum me have to learn from the Sal drama?

If anyone wants to me to respond to the full wall I can but unless someone actually thinks I might be scum I don't see why I need to keep doing this, if he's legitimately upset that I'm like, pushing him for a reason he thinks is wrong or dumb or w/e in his mind, I'd rather just let it be.

Don't take it that literally. You are lying about my motives, I know that. It would be nice if you could be less irritating as I wish it, though it was more an indirect pointer to other players toward the flaws of how you are responding to my posts. One thing that comes to mind is when I expressed concerns about Fred, and you said something like "yikes you're preparing a push on Fred." A red herring that distracted from considering whether my read on Fred was legitimate.

I'm always upset when someone makes a mistake, but if you are consciously making a mistake to attack me, what does that say about you? Yes, I'm being kind of hypocritical here in relation to Salsabil Faria, but the difference is that it's only one scumtell I am pointing out, which does not suddenly make Prism obvious scum, while Prism takes it as the main argument for me being obvious scum. Lastly, if you were town, you would be more inclined to have learned a lesson, and I imagine that if you really were town you'd openly admit that you should have learned a lesson rather than redirecting the attention to how I phrase my ideas.

You don't need to respond to the full wall. I don't need to fully respond to anyone's wall. Why do you think you don't need to respond to the wall though because you are still perceived favorably by the town, not because you need to look at how floo is posting to convince people

and figure out his scumpartner, even if he is confirmed scum you are unsure of this and need all the info you can on this

. It's more helpful to respond to some of the new or more relevant points (why did you push me to claim + reconsidering the assumptions behind the sal argument) if you're interested in both not dying and saving time and keeping up the appearance of hunting for my partner.

I'm not upset in being disappointed in you, more annoyed. Completely normal for town. One thing I think you are implying is that if I am scum, I am upset that you are pushing me for something I did which actually isn't scummy. I agree if that this was the case, you could let it be and wait for the postgame, though if you have realized yourself that your reasons aren't so good, you better revise them to give yourself the best chance of winning.

[Prism]

I read that quote later and thought "This is the dumbest way I could have possibly thought of to say I don't think this is SvS"

The kill depends a lot on who my partner would be. I don't think it would be the worst if were quiet. With you it's pretty workable but Spartan might be a better NK? Gives me a lot of freedom to push/bus as necessary. With Spartan I think that or killing quiet would both be pretty viable. With floo I probably just kill you because Spartan already thinks floo is town, and fairy/quiet are both not voting the other of me/floo the second one of us flips whereas you're a lot less unpredictable.

[flow trap]

Same question to Floo

[Prism]

It's pretty tough to pin down slots that aren't really voteable as scum in my position, I think I would have had the most difficulty with quiet given that I'd be kicking the ball to someone else to push while waiting to blitz, but the pushes on that slot have all been super weak and aren't likely to gain traction without me.

I'm trying to take this seriously since you seem to think it's worth asking but yeah, really depends on who my partner would be and how I feel we're set up going into Day 3.

[Prism]

ie. the difference between quiet and fairy FMPOV would be that Fairy has a good chance of getting voted by floo, quiet I don't think there was anyone really that was really pushing that slot except for the Spartan vote near the end of Day 2

[Prism]

This also just depends on a lot of mechanical factors, here I'm assuming I get to shoot whoever but is there a doctor? Who have we roleblocked previous nights? No killing in a no doc world is also a very strong play.

[Prism]

I'm going to take a nap but I'll be back in an hour or two and I can try to wrap up the last things I want to tackle before N4

[floo]

actually, @floo, given that from your perspective it is absolutely guaranteed that prism is scum...why aren't you voting the slot?

am I wrong that any combination where both you and prism are town = game is over? Which basically means voting Prism here doesn't change anything?

Are you really going to search for an elim on another slot? If so, which one? I can't see that being +EV

The timing of my vote on Prism didn't really matter, I preferred to include it with my eventual wall. I wanted at least 24 hours to wait, just in case Mafia couldn't be online at the same time. Especially since Spartan seems to be less active - this doesn't mean I scumread Spartan at the time, but I had to take into account the possibility. Plus there's always the chance Prism unvotes, not because he would stop scumreading me, but because we have a Doctor claim to sort.

[floo]

also at this point you are just teasing me, i'm going to have so many emotions if the mod interactions are a play.

like I know it's totally in bounds, but god.

I mean, given the concrete reads I've given this game and the concrete flips, what do you think?

I can go through the history behind me/ffery if someone wants but that's not really the concern here imo.

These posts by Prism which are like "remember I'm town!" give off the air of self-confident, even arrogant town. This post is willfully ignorant of the fact that scum can easily get all their flipped townreads correct. I recently realized that I don't remember so many of these kinds of posts on D1. He transitioned from a helpful diplomat and voice of experience on D1 to parading himself as the town savior who was getting stressed and annoyed. @quiet, do you agree? I see it as a pretended attitude change, which created an unfriendly environment (even without Prism pushing me).

[floo]

@floo, i'm doing my absolute best to engage in good faith, and consider your positions, and I really appreciate your direct responses, as that's the only way I'll be able to sort you successfully. The next thing I'd like you to comment on is why you entered day3 the way you did, and a brief expansion of divorced from the prism partner equity, what made you gut think flow trap vs. spartan.

It's my fault for failed time management. My reading strategy would be to see every flip + the EoD votes. First I had to comment on the what I read about the flip, then I was responding to old posts while reading some of the newest posts. You're probably thinking "come on!" and I'd think the same in your position.

What is prism partner equity?

flow trap is a guttowny player to me. The type of guttown read that I'm more confident about than a guttown read for high effort players, which I've talked about before. It's my gut though, I can't tell everything from it. I could go deep into introspection if I wanted, but it's not worth the time for just a gutread anyway.