Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[floo]

To elaborate on 2073, Prism D2 feels like he wants players to townread him, then he will get the scum and solve the game. He should realize that the better way to be townread is to first get the scum. It does not matter if the push is controversial or not, or he himself becomes controversial. Once he gets a red flip, he will be unanimously townread.

1895 @quiet What do you mean Prism is reining himself back in? On D3 he is more stridently insistent that he is town and hell-bent on the 99.9999...% sure read (oops, esotericzoomer!) than even D2. One or two "I'm restraining myself" posts are meaningless and glib. He will still have a dictator mentality. Here's a question to ask Prism, have any of your former confident scumreads been wrong?

1896 if you do not try to convince other players because you have been wrong too much in the past, you will become only the lapdog of whoever you townread. You will have had firsthand experience of this after this game regardless of the winner. You have room to be wrong in Mafia, and there are no real-life consequences if you mess up. Learning how to argue your reads will only improve your read accuracy: don't run away.

Hey Prism, if I wanted one answer. I want to know why you kept insisting on me to claim, what was your thought process?

1908: 1872 was obviously low effort. I only needed low effort to make a point about your logic. The fact that you're "IDK" when you're scumreading me tells something about how legitimate your scumread is, when you cannot find a plausible scumpartner for me. In fact, you are trying not to offend any one of the two quiet/flow trap who you need to vote you, and instead you shift the blame to Spartan who conveniently won't vote me anyway unless to quickhammer.

According to you I am counting on three-way LYLO. If that was so and I was scum, I would be keeping silent almost entirely, trying to out the Doctor, and focusing exclusively on you. Instead, I am doubly confirming you as town and

not

outing the Doctor. Plus, If I flipped red, I would have already confirmed flow and quiet as town from prior interactions on D1 & D2, and I would be again confirming both as town from D3.

[flow trap]

On D3 he is more stridently insistent that he is town and hell-bent on the 99.9999...% sure read (oops, esotericzoomer!) than even D2.

This is invalid due to a different subject, do you have evidence of Prism doing it?

Also, this is invalid because it implies that they're wrong as town

[flow trap]

To elaborate on 2073, Prism D2 feels like he wants players to townread him, then he will get the scum and solve the game. He should realize that the better way to be townread is to first get the scum. It does not matter if the push is controversial or not, or he himself becomes controversial. Once he gets a red flip, he will be unanimously townread.

This is suspicious coming from someone who's being saying town doesn't want to act suspicious the whole game

Not to mention that in order to get a controversial wagon shot, you need to be trusted

[floo]

On D3 he is more stridently insistent that he is town and hell-bent on the 99.9999...% sure read (oops, esotericzoomer!) than even D2.

This is invalid due to a different subject, do you have evidence of Prism doing it?

Also, this is invalid because it implies that they're wrong as town

"obvious scum" went to "I am not never unvoting this slot." Prism implying "I'm so town" more is based on what I've felt over the game, I don't have the time to do a post-by-post counting analysis. Why would a town as experienced as Prism, who undoubtedly has had confident scumreads gone wrong, be so confident in this game based on behavioral analysis alone?

In retrospect, I should have not written that explanation when I switched my RVS vote to flow. The difference is that I was defensive in my image-consciousness in one post, while image-consciousness permeates Prism's strategy.

No, you do not need to be widely trusted to get a controversial wagon shot. You need only to be trusted enough to get enough players to vote with you, plus your arguments should be good enough to get some other players who might scumread you to join. If Prism can get 3 other players to vote with him, he will have succeeded in getting a shot. And he will have 99% confirmed himself as town in the process too.

[floo]

Interesting that both people who scumread me (Prism, quiet) and me think the most likely scum other from Prism/floo is Spartan. Does this make Spartan more likely to be scum if multiple town FoS him and his Mafia partner is correspondingly taking steps to bus him?

[Prism]

I typed up a response to both of those walls but honestly I'd rather see what other people say. If he's going to finally risk giving out partner tells, I'll take him up on it and let everyone else jump in. If anyone finds any of that interesting/plausible I can address it.

I'll answer the claim bit which is that you want scum to claim opposite of you here in a doctor world. If you're left as uncc'd doctor, we can actually vote outside to try to get mechanical confirmation via hitting the roleblocker. If they claim doctor, they risk getting cc'd by a 3rd party and basically getting instavoted. I am VT, so this does not apply.

[Prism]

I'll save it if anyone wants it later, but I'd rather see Spartan/quiet respond.

[flow trap]

On D3 he is more stridently insistent that he is town and hell-bent on the 99.9999...% sure read (oops, esotericzoomer!) than even D2.

This is invalid due to a different subject, do you have evidence of Prism doing it?

Also, this is invalid because it implies that they're wrong as town

"obvious scum" went to "I am not never unvoting this slot." Prism implying "I'm so town" more is based on what I've felt over the game, I don't have the time to do a post-by-post counting analysis. Why would a town as experienced as Prism, who undoubtedly has had confident scumreads gone wrong, be so confident in this game based on behavioral analysis alone?

In retrospect, I should have not written that explanation when I switched my RVS vote to flow. The difference is that I was defensive in my image-consciousness in one post, while image-consciousness permeates Prism's strategy.

No, you do not need to be widely trusted to get a controversial wagon shot. You need only to be trusted enough to get enough players to vote with you, plus your arguments should be good enough to get some other players who might scumread you to join. If Prism can get 3 other players to vote with him, he will have succeeded in getting a shot. And he will have 99% confirmed himself as town in the process too.

No, from your POV saying they having 99% confidence reflects Zoomer, implies that you're they're town

And why didn't you just say that from the start instead of saying multiple times and then discarding it when you had to accuse someone for the same thing

[flow trap]

Quiet, Spartan, & I are going to claim next round right?

[Prism]

I mean it's up to y'all, if you think it would somehow help sort today go for it, but I would say tomorrow.

Doctor world means I might get to stick around but depends on A) One existing B) Not getting roleblocked

[flow trap]

Yeah if we claim now then there will be a definite RB
I mean there is a 25% chance of success anyways but better than none

[Prism]

Do you have any issue with my claim order/see why I prefer that?

I just don't think it makes much of a difference if Spartan potentially picks his cc by going second, but it makes a whole lot of difference if you/quiet wind up CCing.

[Prism]

The ideal world here is like, 1/4 times floo flips RB. I get saved (pls) or they shoot outside for doctor. Scum forced to guess where to cc. Please do not paranoia vote me.

The 3/4 world is floo flips goon and we get nothing, yeet. I may or may not be around Day 4 depending on RB existing/using correctly.

[Prism]

This is actually pretty curious to me.

As I've stated it's easier to read people who interact with you, and I was also weary of a pocket attempt how they read me barely affects thing.

The second part lines up decently with your play this game but I'm curious as to the first-you haven't really been as eager to jump into direct interactions or discuss other slots directly with people. What are the type of interactions you're referring to here/how have you used those to inform your reads?

This was to Salsabil after you voted her if you need the context.

[Prism]

flow trap's progression on Salsabil is actually shockingly crisp.

Conversation encapsulated in 227 later leads to a revote in 368 and from here we get the slapfight. 396 where he recognizes that Salsabil might be being dismissive/laughing it off as town instead of being scum is good.

The part that throws me is that posts like 420 (blaze) seem to be scumreading the dismissiveness, victim tone, etc. from Salsabil while this is mentioned in part 2 of The Great Wall:

I still stand by the fact that town is more defensive, or a least I am as town. Floo -> Annoyed Sarcasm -> Towny, same as previously mentioned (also reinforcing opinion). (Can’t include what I was going to say here).

This comes right after talking about Salsabil, so it's unclear whether or not the first sentence is referring to Salsabil or floo. I think the definition of "defensive" here lends itself more towards the latter, there's a distinction between being overly explanatory or a bit biting and dismissive/playing the victim.

Overall I feel like this progression is pretty good? Finds the same stuff scummy that floo pushed on but the difference is that flow trap actually allows for the possibility that they can be upset and indignant as town, and swaps off later as explained in part 3. Bonus that it's for a similar thing with dismissiveness, though Spartan is much more about just throwing flow trap into the anti-town bucket for the sake of it whereas Salsabil had a much more protracted engagement.

...And this actually lines up really well with the line of questioning with Salsabil in 666:

Or maybe salsa is just the god of formatting and I’m letting my naked jealousy of their posting technique color my opinion.

Well either way, high effort high quality easy to understand posts gets a +town from me.

Hoping no one is trying to pocket me here

Actually, that's why I asked about Spartan

(This comes right after flow asks Salsabil about Spartan specifically) and right about this time flow trap shifts to a slight townread.

Their reasoning for rescinding that claim for a bit later, only given in Part 4, is on the basis that flow trap PR read them and didn't want them shot. This PRR explanation is consistent with everything flow trap said in the other parts of the wall, even though it's not really given at the time.

More slapfighting gets followed up with a vote, no shocker there, doesn't really get explained in the wall but...yeah. Claiming the light TR was a bluff in 1333 isn't great but it looked more like coming from a place of suspecting Spartan than actually townreading Salsabil, especially with the PR read.

tl;dr: chaos god actually has some order inside holy shit

[Prism]

I'm going to be up all night doing this shit because I get the feeling I'm going to have bigger fish to fry closer to deadline now that floo has actually started trying so someone keep me company

First I'm actually amazed that this lines up even remotely well, but also that was one slot out of 12 and at some point I'm probably just going to have to settle for like, just tracing through the reads on floo/quiet/Spartan and maybe Frederick. I've already seen a bit of his thoughts on Spartan while tracking through Salsabil, and it's not halfbad and has some good depth to it.

[Prism]

I just want to note I have grad school applications due next Monday that I have barely worked on so shooting me is doing us all a huge favor

If you think I won't sacrifice my health, sleep, and personal lifegoals to win a mafia game, I am warning you now, you are absolutely wrong so spare us both

[Prism]

The other thing that sells the PRR read on Salsabil as being legitimate is this:

Maybe you should give some ways/ask me questions, and my head start working, otherwise i will just blindly walk here.

What do you think of Salsa+Zoomer interactions?

flow trap should explain more of why he asked this question if he legitimately thought they were masons but this majorly reinforces the legitimacy of his Salsabil progression, the remaining question would be if that's why he shot Zoomer.

[Prism]

I honestly don't even know why I am bothering to do this considering floo decided to show back up and actually fight the vote only when it became obvious Spartan wasn't going to be proactive or really do anything and was likely to be instavoted Day 4, but we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.

[Prism]

quiet, I know you're worried about flow trap, but what are your specific fears for him here?

My specific fear is he didn't do shit at the end of Day 2, and arguably the brashness/failed bluffs are scum bullshit. The latter we definitely have him on record doing as town.

On the other hand that Salsabil read was really,

really

fucking good and I find it hard to believe floo doesn't just keep AFK prod dodging if it's flow trap.

[Prism]

Eh I guess floo has incentive to play it out regardless of which is scum, it doesn't really

hurt

to show up if it's flow trap here, but still.

[Prism]

If quiet is scum I am actually going to chuck my laptop out a window

That's not an expression of a shifting read, it's just the knowledge that the last thing missing from this being a Prism Instant Classic is piledriving the game into a loss with a bad townread, and I will fucking scream

[Prism]

Tracing through the floo interactions I'm again less inclined to believe it is flow trap. This one is pretty straightforward.

Early page interactions have floo voting flow trap to drive content, serious vote business, and several good followups with floo/flow trap make for decent theater. Nothing really definitive. flow trap keeps the townread for this basically forever, which I think makes sense, especially since they both kind of come together in suspecting Salsabil for awhile, with flow trap giving a

lot

more leeway for Salsabil to actually be town as noted previously.

The most concerning thing is that the one read flow trap really goes indepth for is the townread on floo in 1338, basically for the above. I obviously disagreed after awhile that the start was that AI, and didn't like the lukewarm stance, but this read both makes sense and has nuance.

The thing that sticks out to me is 1518 confirms both myself and floo as top townreads (tragic). My townread gets briefly mentioned a few times but gets backed up by the wall more than flow trap's posting at the time, which isn't great but is ~fine~. This just makes so much more sense for why flow trap was willing to go to bat to sell this read to me to protect one TR from another. One way to view this is as harddefending a partner, but another is the chaos god...actually trying to bring harmony to the realm.

His progression today on why he's 90% floo/10% me isn't quite as opaque but I can kind of piece it together from the walls/reactions to a few posts even if he's not explicitly explaining

tl;dr: early interactions w/ floo kinda good. floo defense day 2 bad, but pretty understandable. less opaque today but can piece it together

[Prism]

I'm basically ready for day to end pending questions for me/feedback on where I'm at.

I do not think it is quiet. I do not think it is flow trap. Blindly following the SE in 3 way is not conducive to developing good habits, and is not how I want to encourage you to play 3 way over something more engaging and that encourages you to really think critically as players. If you disagree with me, drill down and figure out

why

. And if I am wrong dear god am I sorry that I am like this.

That said I think it is just Spartan and I am down to talk about whatever people feel they need feedback on all day tomorrow, whether that's last minute doubts on me or something that bothers you about another slot.

Please do not wait to vote an hour before deadline, 1. This is how dumb adrenaline/emotional votes get made 2. This gives us time to actually talk about the vote that does get placed before someone else hammers

(

@SPARTAN PLEASE be around tomorrow if you are town/talk more with us, esp. near deadline, really curious where you think I'm going wrong/if you have any reactions to the floo arguments

.)

[Prism]

I had a huge paragraph here. I will save it for tomorrow when the vote goes through. I still have work to do.

Instead I'll just say that while having me sanity check/give reads is important, it's more important for whoever is town to link up directly. I will help however I can, but this game is not about me and not everything can go through me.

Goodnight, see y'all in the morning.