(Pagetopping this.)In post 2773, mastina wrote:For the record--this is once more not a Titus-town mindset. If Titus were town here with too many scumreads, it would trigger a reevaluation from her of the gamestate and her assumptions, not to mention her reads.In post 2618, Titus wrote:I think that's one too many, so I may have a townbeard in my SRs
The fact that she knows how shitty my scumgame is and knows my town meta fairly intimately yet is insisting I am scum without reassessing that at all is one example of this, but it's very widespread.
I am telling you.
On every level--this is not Titus as town; this is Titus's scumgame.
I'm actually becoming more sure Titus is scum than LLD is scum (when I am pretty damn sure LLD is scum).
There was a world where Titus could be town...but the more and more from Titus I see, the more and more I realize that world just doesn't exist. (Basically, to explain this: certain normally-scum-indicators for Titus can, situationally, in specific circumstances, actually not be scum-indicators for her, and be either null or even situationally town for her in spite of generally being Titus scumtells. That's why Titus started as 80% scum rather than 100% scum; the remaining 20% was the possibility of Titus being in those situational circumstances. But the more and more Titus scumtells, with multiple different Titus-specific scumtells piling up over time, the less and less likely it is that this is her in those situational circumstances, and with the multitude of Titus scumtells, the chances of her being scum go up to nearly 100%. If I had to estimate, it'd be in the 99% percentile. I'mthatsure this isn't Titus as town.)
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Funny, I don't recall you raising this concern about the hercule wagon (which did hit L-2 at some point albeit not listed in an official VC) or the LLD wagon (ditto).In post 2678, AGar wrote:- A wagon hitting E-2 and then falling apart *for no apparent reason* and another wagon springing up is alarming.- Dunnstral
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You'd be wrong
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Doing nothing is working for LLD tho, due to what amounts to wifom + sorta-BoP + "too scummy to be scum":In post 2720, Cephrir wrote:yeah she sure is out here using every tool at her disposal by doing nothing
"LLD is a good scum player, LLD is doing nothing, LLD as scum surely wouldn't do nothing thanks to being a good scum player, therefore, LLD is town".
Ignoring the fact that LLD is a good scum player who is flexible and smart enough to read the gamestate and know when to do nothing.
If doing something gets you scumread and earns you votes and/or places BoP on you, yet doing nothing gets you slaps on the wrist with people who scumread it having to pull out hair to convince others and makes people hesitate and makes people defend you and makes people BoP you as being town and makes the wagon on you stall.
If doing something puts you in danger yet doing nothing can keep you out of it.
Then doing nothing is legitimately genuinely the smart play.
And LLD is doing nothing here, because it is the best way to keep her wagon from gaining momentum.
When scum are in the spotlight due to doing things, it places scrutiny on them; when scum stay out of the spotlight by playing more passively, it reduces the scrutiny because simply put: there's less material to work with.- mastina
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Which alignment benefits from doing nothing?In post 2724, OkaPoka wrote:she's not powertowning true she's also not powerwolfing she's just powernothing
Town doing nothing leaves no lasting legacy.
Scum doing nothing leaves less damning associatives.
Which of those two do you think benefits more from power-nothingness?
Y'all are saying LLD is a good scum player, y'all have recognized that LLD is intelligent as scum, y'all have recognized that LLD is flexible in her play especially as scum. So why is the thought of "LLD made the strategic call to do nothing as scum because she believes that gives her scumteam the best odds of victory" such a hard concept for you to grasp?- Luca Blight
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I'm agreeing with her general reads/thoughts a lot more than I did in that game, where I misread her as being scum. Her (imo misplaced) confidence in Mastina being scum seems similar to some of her pushes in the previous game.In post 2679, innocentvillager wrote: an aside before i forget@Luca, DGBim curious if either of you have impressions about Titus's play here since you both just finished a Large Normal with her (LN 231)?- mastina
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Notably.In post 2725, OkaPoka wrote:but like every 24 hours we get a flash and then its like the simpsons bush gif
The LLD wagon has remained a constant throughout the day through all of those.
The hercule wagon was a wagon that formed around the same time as the LLD wagon. While technically the LLD wagon was a counterwagon to the hercule wagon, the two wagons were dueling for quite a long time. It wasn't as if the sudden formation of the LLD wagon caused the hercule wagon to instantly collapse; it took days upon days for the hercule wagon to dissipate, so the hercule wagon I am counting as basically an LLD counterwagon.
There was a DGB counterwagon to LLD that formed.
There was a small Hopkirk counterwagon to LLD that formed.
There was a the worst counterwagon to LLD that formed.
There is the Ythan counterwagon to LLD that formed.
I'd call the Titus wagon to technically be a counterwagon to Ythan rather than a counterwagon to LLD, but technically the LLD wagon still being around at the time means that technically the Titus wagon counts as a counterwagon to LLD.
Am I forgetting any other wagons that have cropped up?
The LLD wagon has been consistent, and yet the entire game, there has been counterwagons to it to try and desperately prevent a D1 LLD fade.
While all of these wagons have town in them and many of them aren't driven by scum, there's been a fairly clear pattern in voting where scum were at minimum happy to let the counterwagons happen and in many cases supported them.
Ask yourself--how many of these counterwagons had strong pushback?
The hercule wagon? Maybe, especially from me, but that wagon lasted for a huge amount of time.
The DGB wagon? Who aside from me was pushing back against it?
The Hopkirk miniwagon? Nobody pushed against it that I can recall, altho I will admit that even I didn't mostly due to it being comparatively small.
the worst's wagon? I think that wagon had zero pushback to it.
Ythan's wagon? I'm the closest one to have given pushback to it and even I couldn't in good faith push back strongly against it.
The one and only counterwagon with any real pushback has been the Titus counterwagon.
Maybe because Titus is actually scum and scum don't want to save LLD by condemning Titus.
The fact that every non-Titus/LLD wagon has had basically almost no pushback should be a red fucking flag.
Whereas the LLD and Titus wagons have in common strong pushback against them.- Lady Lambdadelta
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Every time Mastina posts, she becomes more like an adult in Charlie Brown
Womp womp womp will popYes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
11 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you, click here.
If you wish to speak to one of us, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra and Airna.
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Fucking phone
What an auto correctYes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
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If you wish to speak to one of us, we are Niamh, Rhiannon, Rhea, Aisling, Saoirse, Selene, Aoife, Fírinne, Aurélie, Lyra and Airna.
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You know what these names have in common?In post 2746, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I don't agree that Ythan looks townie, but I'm at a point where is the majority of [Dunn, Dann, Ceph, Agar] are voting somewhere, I'm just going to vote there.
Aside from the obligatory rule-of-threefour of one of them (AGar) being scum, they're all...
(All of them are among the players hard-defending LLD, refusing to wagon her, and to a lesser extent, dissuading others from voting Titus. They're players who, by and large, are largely influencing the game particularly Dann/Ceph and yet their stances are ones that will guarantee a town elimination on D1 due to their adamant refusal to accept the simple truth of reality that, yes, LLD is in fact scum here and so too is Titus.)- mastina
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You're literally advocating hard for a wagon on one of the towniest slots in the game (DGB) rather than accepting that the obvious scum who aren't even trying to hide that they're obvious scum because people like you are letting them get away with it, are in fact obvious scum not bothering to even try and hide it because they've no need to.In post 2748, Cephrir wrote:haha im gonna feel guilty if we miss now i'm so not used to succeeding
At least {Bell, Ythan} have a theoretical chance of flipping scum. I currently don't think they will, but I can't really defend them because I see the scum in them and acknowledge the very real chance that if my scumreads aren't perfect, there's a high chance for them to be scum.
But DGB is never flipping scum here and it is in fact one of the greatest threats to the scum; eliminating it D1 is literally taking the scum's almost-assured N1 nightkill away from them and doing their work for them, freeing them up to do their N2 nightkill on N1 because they don't need to eliminate DGB anymore.
I basically guarantee you; let DGB live, and unless the scum fear a protective role on it, they're gonna kill DGB.- mastina
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And when it turns out your analysis was dead on the money, what then? Do you do what should've been done on D1 and eliminate LLD/Titus?In post 2751, innocentvillager wrote:i guess will just pray you guys are right and my analysis this game has just been way off and reset tomorrow if this hits scum
Because you should.
I have fairly good reasons for thinking AGar is scum and Idothink that, if my read on the gamestate is right, then towning it up be damned, OkaPoka is the fourth scum in spite of how he looks town. (OkaPoka looks like deepwolf scum this game. He is very obviously power"town"ing, but the stances he keeps insisting on furthering are very much pro-scum which means he is probably the scum's highest-effort, deepest of deep deepscums and not actually town. The scum who looks the most town, but still scum thanks to advocating for pro-scum stances essentially the whole game. Scum who dabbles in town stances, but doesn't commit to them, sticking to stances that help scum overall, just faked to look like an organic trajectory where he naturally evolves his thoughts from the protown ones into the proscum ones. In other words. Powerwolfing.)- Luca Blight
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Oh I lost my train of thought here, sorry.In post 2786, mastina wrote:
And when it turns out your analysis was dead on the money, what then? Do you do what should've been done on D1 and eliminate LLD/Titus?In post 2751, innocentvillager wrote:i guess will just pray you guys are right and my analysis this game has just been way off and reset tomorrow if this hits scum
Because you should.
I have fairly good reasons for thinking AGar is scum and Idothink that, if my read on the gamestate is right, then towning it up be damned, OkaPoka is the fourth scum in spite of how he looks town. (OkaPoka looks like deepwolf scum this game. He is very obviously power"town"ing, but the stances he keeps insisting on furthering are very much pro-scum which means he is probably the scum's highest-effort, deepest of deep deepscums and not actually town. The scum who looks the most town, but still scum thanks to advocating for pro-scum stances essentially the whole game. Scum who dabbles in town stances, but doesn't commit to them, sticking to stances that help scum overall, just faked to look like an organic trajectory where he naturally evolves his thoughts from the protown ones into the proscum ones. In other words. Powerwolfing.)
This post was meant to say, "AGar I have good reasons for thinking is scum and if my read on the gamestate is right, him looking town be damned, OkaPoka is probably also scum, but I fully admit that my scumreads on these two are nowhere near the strength of my scumreads on LLD and Titus", in that when whatever mislynch we end up mislynching due to a refusal to eliminate LLD/Titus flips, you SHOULD go back to LLD/Titus and power-yeet them. Because while I could be wrong on Oka/AGar (even tho I think I can pretty clearly show why they fit as scum), I'm not wrong on LLD/Titus.- mastina
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On that note.In post 2752, innocentvillager wrote:i will maybe look at this tmr and actually think about it more
I realize it is doing preflip associatives on D1.
But I wanna ask for you to humor me, IV.
If Titus AND LLD were both scum, ignoring individual scumtell indicators, which players do you think would be the players who most strongly have passionately dissuaded us from wagoning those two?
It's not a long list: {OkaPoka, Dannflor, Cephrir} as incredibly vocal + {Agar, Dunnstral} as less vocal. Do you disagree with those five being the strongest opposition to an LLD wagon in particular, with a side of the Titus wagon? (Dannflor and Cephrir less so for Titus, but Oka/AGar moreso given that both Oka and AGar had an INCREDIBLY strong, immediate, negative reaction to the Titus wagon.)
Humoring me, and assuming that Titus and LLD both did indeed flip scum--would you be more on the same page as me in seeing why I think Oka and AGar are incredibly likely to be scum defending their scumbuddies?
Because if we get to later in the game. And players like DGB, Ythan, Bell, Luca Blight, etc., are revealed as town, and LLD and Titus are revealed as scum. Look back at the players who were so strongly steering the game towards eliminating those now-flipped-town and away from the now-flipped scum.
Oka and AGar will top the charts.
That aside from tells on them.- mastina
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hercule/Luca Blight
Hopkirk
innocentvillager
Dannflor
DrippingGoofball
Xtoxm
jjh927
Almost50
Cephrir
Winter Flakes (alt of Uncrowned)
Dunnstral
the worst/Bell
Ythan
OkaPoka
AGar
Lady Lambdadelta
Titus
Current readslist.
Townbloc, strong townreads, meh-reads (could easily be scum, but currently I think otherwise), likely-powerwolfing-deepscum, scumread, strong scumread, confscum.- mastina
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Also, possible hot take:
Is it possible that the reason both LLD and Titus this game are underwhelming is due to burnout of recent scumgames from both of them?
I haven't read either of their recent scumgames to check their performance out there but food for thought.- innocentvillager
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In post 2594, Luca Blight wrote:
Good post, I agree with most of this.In post 2516, innocentvillager wrote:
hmm, at the time i interpreted "things going wrong" as very strong wording. it's also possible the way mastina framed it at the time in 2291 i felt like it was very strong (e.g. a big claim, flips, etc. is what come to mind for me); as a town player I will reassess and bounce around even if none of those happen.In post 2512, AGar wrote:IV - in what world is evidence that runs counter to what you have asserted thus far not "things going wrong"?
And I believe town!Titus is that kind of player too from my limited experience with her. Her processes felt more substantiated in games I remember with her whereas here it does feel a bit more mechanical/blanket-assertiony without as much reasoning. I am honestly kind of at a loss for her confidence level on what's happening in this gamestate for the amount of content she's put out, especially coming from a player who tends in excel more in the lategame. If this is some sort of a style-change then maybe that would nullify this read of her a bit, idk. In a confirmation-biased way it almost feels like she's planning on parking her solve for now and setting up for her theory to be wrong, or justification to continue pushing her theory (which one would obviously depend on if the flip was consistent with her "theory" or not)
I get that mastina is not popular for some of you all this game but I think scum are going to double down on blanket-discrediting mastina and that's what I'm seeing from Titus and it's giving me a weird vibe
I'm also just not seeing the whole "mastina is spamming and manipulating the gamestate so she's scum!" thing at all that I believe Titus is proposing
I could be wrong on any of those fronts for sure but that's probably the crux of my gut-scumlean on her rn
wait sorry now i'm a bit confused because it seems like you agreed with some of my reasoning to SL Titus earlier (part of it being I think this is dissimilar to her early towngame)? and here you're saying you're seeing a lot of similarities to her [early?] towngame?In post 2780, Luca Blight wrote:
I'm agreeing with her general reads/thoughts a lot more than I did in that game, where I misread her as being scum. Her (imo misplaced) confidence in Mastina being scum seems similar to some of her pushes in the previous game.In post 2679, innocentvillager wrote: an aside before i forget@Luca, DGBim curious if either of you have impressions about Titus's play here since you both just finished a Large Normal with her (LN 231)?
can you describe what you agree with/don't?- Luca Blight
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Spoiler:
I feel like Goofball was being genuinely solvey here without trying to push an agenda.
Spoiler:
I really vibed with this early IV scumread, and I felt the emotion was genuine.
I'm a little curious on Goofball's progression on A50, who Goofball TR, then SR, then null read without much in the way of explanation.In post 722, DrippingGoofball wrote:A50 is such a nervous scum wreck.
Spoiler:
This call to action felt super Townie to me. Goofball is identifying who he believes are fellow Town members and trying to create a sense organization and unity.
Spoiler:
I don't 100% buy this case, but I can see why Goofball thinks the 'neutralization' of Mastina could be a genuine scum strategy.- innocentvillager
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like maybe? even then i doubt both are scum doing essentially the same thing? but yeah preflipping TWO slots as scum is like, wildly idealistic and not something i care about with like 1 day left in D1In post 2789, mastina wrote:
On that note.In post 2752, innocentvillager wrote:i will maybe look at this tmr and actually think about it more
I realize it is doing preflip associatives on D1.
But I wanna ask for you to humor me, IV.
If Titus AND LLD were both scum, ignoring individual scumtell indicators, which players do you think would be the players who most strongly have passionately dissuaded us from wagoning those two?
It's not a long list: {OkaPoka, Dannflor, Cephrir} as incredibly vocal + {Agar, Dunnstral} as less vocal. Do you disagree with those five being the strongest opposition to an LLD wagon in particular, with a side of the Titus wagon? (Dannflor and Cephrir less so for Titus, but Oka/AGar moreso given that both Oka and AGar had an INCREDIBLY strong, immediate, negative reaction to the Titus wagon.)
Humoring me, and assuming that Titus and LLD both did indeed flip scum--would you be more on the same page as me in seeing why I think Oka and AGar are incredibly likely to be scum defending their scumbuddies?
Because if we get to later in the game. And players like DGB, Ythan, Bell, Luca Blight, etc., are revealed as town, and LLD and Titus are revealed as scum. Look back at the players who were so strongly steering the game towards eliminating those now-flipped-town and away from the now-flipped scum.
Oka and AGar will top the charts.
That aside from tells on them.
and in general to be totally honest i don't find your attitude this EoD super convincing with like, assuming all of your scumreads are scum and presenting all of your analysis that way, it makes you look confbias-tunnelled and imo makes at least me personally, not take you as seriously, because it's just so unlikely that you can actually get like even 3/4 of the whole scumteam on D1. I get that fypov you feel you've essentially found scum and really want us to just all magically align with you but i don't think that's realistic
if you somehow are right, we will probably gradually eliminate your scumreads on later days anyway, there is time for all of us to reassess your theories (but honestly, i don't even know if your scumreads are that correlated)- innocentvillager
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Spoiler:
I agree that scum could be trying to discredit Mastina. I agree that Titus has way too much confidence in her Mastina SR, based on her reasoning.
I don't know Titus' scum game, but her game/reads so far seems better/more accurate (which is not necessarily more townie) than in the previous game, and her push against Mastina is somewhat similar to a push Titus made against a Townie in the previous game, although that occurred later on into the game.
Long and short of it is, I don't have enough info to reliably meta-read Titus and I think her actions this game have been independently scummy.- Luca Blight
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I think people are comparing this game to the last game too much.In post 2795, innocentvillager wrote:@Luca, wrt DGB, i think (could be mistaken?) ironically it's things like this that are fueling the dgb case? (specifically 1574 and 1510)
people are complaining about LLD pushing an agenda when it didn't last town game, lol
Goofball was pretty strong with their pushes in the game we were just in together.- innocentvillager
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