TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[OkaPoka]

if dunn wants to swap to ythan ill swap to ythan

[Xtoxm]

Spoiler: lewds

some of our night chat for you guys

x: if dann doesnt come back and vote after his commitment its a scumclaim
a: now im worried shes town because my reads are usually incorrect
x: ya but we need this elimination or we'll never move on
a: mhm, i only mean it will be annoying
x: if theyre both town a50 is probably scum
ok nice she got hammered
a: hope implo posts before i go to bed
x: she was town :sadface:
dont understand the way she played here
so do we think the eod wagons are both town?
a50 being absent for eod is very scummy
as are slots that didnt seem to mind which way it went
a: lld had a bad game. happens to everyone.
i suppose a50 just wasnt online?
x: town are usually more motivated to make themselves available for deadline. or if you're going to be busy, make sure to place a more productive vote beforehand. you're justifying anti town play.
a: not sure, i dont really think of him as a guy that cares that much about the games he plays
so who were the players that didn't mind who got eliminated?
x: winter, he talked abt lld being a good data lim, but then was like lol i'll vote dgb indtead
also dann, oka. they said really early they would change their vote. there was no chance of me voting dgb there.
a: should we put any weight on anything lld said? im not seeing iv scum at all
x: im not listenign to anything from her. she played terrible. she said WE were scum.
a: ugh, i bet dgb gets hard pushed on d2
x: i doubt it
perhaps a little
i think people will come to the conclusion the wagons were tvt, lots of lackerluster/absent players at deadline too
thoughts on titus? i thought the way she deliberated on her vote and came to a decision looked townie
we should reassess our reads probably
do you agree that a50 and wf should be pushed?
a: i feel very unsure about everything at the moment
WF looks bad, i agree
x: bell is also scummy
a: i dont know for a50. i cant read him. i think you may be seeing more calculation in him than actually exists. ive no reason to call him town, however.
bell sounds like he knew lld and dgb are town
x: today was pretty humorous, looking back
the idea of scum not doing much for most of the day is probably on the right lines?

a: my biggest sr is WF, followed by bell

Why would you spoiler this?

a lot of people in this game really hate auro

--

on dann
- i think dann was killed by scum, and dgb was vigged. a little presumptive maybe, but i feel fairly confident in it.
- dann effectively disavowed the dgb wagon, he talked about wanting a new vote.

Also, I don't really believe DGB is scum now that I've thought about it more and I feel another vote switch incoming.

- dann talked about scumreading bell and luca near eod, and wanting them to be pushed today

lol I'm increasingly unsure Luca is town but that'll have to wait until tomorrow

Do an iso of Luca and that should remedy your fears.

The content from Luca is all solid, reasonable, and good. Luca's a fine example of quality > quantity. Luca Blight's posts are basically all really damn good, and when you see the growth and evolution and thought process on display in the iso, his townness shines through.

I'm afraid I disagree but that'll have to wait until tomorrow

My read on Bell is improving.

Also, where did this come from

Because I can't think it came from Bell directly

It did. Scum!Bell doesn't try at all here. No need for him to.

Okay, but what points to Bell trying here?

I was severely unimpressed by his catchup posts that even included team reads. And then he made an excuse for "all replacements are gonna be scummy."

conclusions:
(1) dann was nightkilled because scum wanted to push dgb today. i think this was definitely a reason. maybe its even enough on its own combined with dann being generally townread.
(2) scum in {luca, bell}

reads.

town:
mastina - town meta
hopkirk - one of very few players seeing the game largely the same way as me, and i feel like i should trust that
iv
ceph

lean town:
titus - her vote at eod yesterday effectively decided outcome of the day. i think her behaviour there would be difficult to fake. i think coming out on lld was the pro-town move, too, to allow those of us tunneled on lld to reassess today. hard conflicts with my earlier thoughts on what scum were doing
oka - i do kinda like all the legwork he put into deadline yesterday, i think its townie. decent reads post today. idk why im stuggling so much to tr him this game, if hes town. :c
luca - the question with this slot, is whether hercule was strong scum, or luca is town thats not good at showing it. hops recent comments have reminded me why i had a strong tr on this slot, and why its probably the latter.

null town:
agar
ythan - gut townread the way he reacted to his wagon yesterday, but i wouldnt be able to come up with anything logical to back it. when im looking at the lld wagon, i do expect scum to be on there somewhere, and i guess hes a candidate since i seem to be townreading a lot of them

poe:
jjh - i dont scumread him, i like some of what hes done, but theres nothing to give me a solid tr either. he could be scum thats playing well.
bell
wf
dunn
a50

[AGar]

3449 is a bad post. So is 3473.

Right now I believe the following players are Town:

IV
Mastina
Ceph
Poka
A50
AGar

y tho?

Based on the D1 wagons I think it's unlikely both Titus and Ythan are scum, and right now I'm leaning towards Titus being the more likely of the two as her play seems more calculated than Ythan's.

why do either of them have to be scum..?

What do you think the odds are that we had significant wagons on four town players yesterday?

at no point am i saying it's a joke

(obviously this is meant to be sarcastic)

*whistles*

how are the lld voters really claiming their wagon on lld was pure when they couldnt explain why she was scum, just why she wasnt town

Because self examination would ruin their circle jerk.

3 in (Titus/Agar/Bell/Winter Flakes (alt of Uncrowned), Oka, JJH, Ythan, A50) + deepwolf?

You're shading *checks notes* more than half of the living playerlist.

Spicy!

I also know that replace outs are statistically more likely to be mafia.

You, uh, wanna back up this bullshit somehow?

[Ythan]

What has Ythan contributed though? What will Ythan contribute?

Jjh has contributions and reassessments. I don't really get why you're voting there.

This is your takeaway from the immediately preceding post?

[Bell]

Agar:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.07851.pdf

Page 4.

[Ythan]

Wow cool.

[AGar]

Ok y'know what I'm not gonna read that and just go with "ok cool you actually have statistical proof."

[AGar]

I was expecting an MD thread, not some fucking research paper that I cannot actually comprehend.

[Ythan]

Yeah that was a hell of a response.

[AGar]

I'm too much of a dipshit for that level of commitment, tbh.

Just bravo.

[Bell]

I mean it's only a 6%, difference but compared to the bullshit we make up on the fly that's really good.

[Ythan]

i didn't go back to check and i thought it was a warm beverage.

I would change to this if it were any other character.

[Dunnstral]

I'm leaning town on Dunnstrall for 3154. It seems like legit Townie solving, although it was obviously pre-written and prepared and his posts in general haven't been near that standard.

I still don't get his point that I 'talked about DGB' and then voted Lady Lamb? Perhaps you can explain that one.

I don't remember why I said that and it doesn't appear to be true on review, I was probably mistaken

[Dunnstral]

I think IV is town and Winterflakes belongs in the blackhole tier.
I don't think a Dunnstral vote should almost ever be a blackmark against someone, esp. day 1.

The IV town read is based less on meta and more on content being relatively varied, a broad focus on the game and I don't really think his anxiousness is faked anymore.

Outside of that, just from meta, I know there are like, 2-4 IV playstyles. I've never played with IV scum, but I do know that his town game can vary and that he goes from super anxious town to weirdly confident shit posting. His votes jumping around might be due more to playstyle than opportunism. But it's possibly just opportunism, lol.

I believe Mastina has limited connection due to power outages due to the cold-ass weather I want to focus more on her and think we're just sort of ignoring her from effort.

I think Luca has been in catch up mode for a suspiciously long time. I would normally have caught up over night if I hadn't been on vacation. What's your excuse Luca?

Yeah I can agree with IV looking town right now

Not 100% on Winter needing to be in black hole, 3440 kind of goes into their motivations. It's less that they were pushing both wagons and more that they were pushing neither and hanging back. Which is not great, but not what I was initially thinking

[Titus]

@Dunn, why jjh over Ythan?

[Dunnstral]

Agar:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.07851.pdf

Page 4.

Ok y'know what I'm not gonna read that and just go with "ok cool you actually have statistical proof."

"In our dataset, an average town-aligned slot
has 0.33 replacements, while an average Mafiaaligned
slot has 0.35 replacements, meaning that a
replacement is 6% more likely to be Mafia"

Wow, 6%

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn, why jjh over Ythan?

Good question, I wasn't feeling confident on Ythan. Agar makes a good point that there would have to be 4 wagons on town yesterday if you and ythan were both town.

meh ythan is a scumlean but i hold out hope that we will see what we saw for a moment near end of day there

Can you remind me what we saw at the end of day and why it was town?

[OkaPoka]

mainly i realized him being him is not nai and he started to make a couple decent posts with content reads and i was like ehh i might be able to live with this

its not town though it just puts away the policy pitchfork

[Titus]

And where is Ythan's posting now that the wagon on him evaporated? Insulting and being toxic. No solving.

[Luca Blight]

I think Luca has been in catch up mode for a suspiciously long time. I would normally have caught up over night if I hadn't been on vacation. What's your excuse Luca?

I feel like you're manipulating what I said here. I live in a different timezone, meaning there is usually little activity when I'm online and then I have to catch-up every real life day to a ton of pages. Today it's only about 4-5 pages, which is refreshing to see.

Why is luca in your strong town's hoppityhopkirk?

@Lucas, do you prefer being town or scum? Does it usually take you this long to catch up in a game of mafia? Are there extenuating circumstances?

I prefer Town, and again you're presenting it as though I'm still catching up from the point where I replaced in, which if you'd read my posts you'd know isn't the case.

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: lld

i guess its whatever

ythan you better keep this up

Quote this post at me when you feel I am not.

it is time ythan

for you to ignore a50 and become a good citizen

[Ythan]

I will effort but a50 deserves my vote.

[Cephrir]

Vote scum, not the person annoying you

[Ythan]

Big brain there.

[Luca Blight]

VOTE: mastina

Case me or die. I want to have this out. I may not respond right away but I want you solved. No more vague meta statements. If I am wrong on you, I should be able to see you having genuine logic here, even if wrong.

This feels like Titus knows a case on her in incoming and she's trying to preemptively discredit it.

This is not a good argument

3449 is a bad post. So is 3473.

Thanks for the constructive criticism, guys.