TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Winter Flakes]

mistyped

meant to say "people who said it wasn't a TvT"

[Winter Flakes]

VOTE: luca
the spirit of dann flows through me

This also continues to be fine

do you TR me? o.o

[Dunnstral]

im just going to get out of the thread

dunn my allegiance still stands

I don't really understand the arguments being made in the last 2-3 pages

[Dunnstral]

I think the obvious answer is that he's attacking whoever pays attention to him.

The irony.

Ythan is enjoying taking refuge in logic against an illogical player. It's not a town trait, nor is the fact that this is the one thing he's able to post about, and I'm disappointed in oka for following it.

Yeah I don't really believe a50 is any more scum from what he's posting, even if I can't make sense of it

[Dunnstral]

I'm feeling a bit lost rn

There's no-one I'm happy voting for rn

That's fair.

It's probably a good idea to go back and look at day 1 play around wagons instead of tone-based reads on day 2

[Dunnstral]

I don't think discussing whether the babysitter is town or scum is helpful right now. I also don't think Titus is lying

[mastina]

VOTE: mastina
Case me or die. I want to have this out. I may not respond right away but I want you solved. No more vague meta statements. If I am wrong on you, I should be able to see you having genuine logic here, even if wrong.

Titus is scum this game because Titus has seen my townplay for the last 3 years and almost never failed to identify it as being such--the last time Titus failed to identify my play as town was Restless Spirits, and she was largely peer pressured into that (sided with the people wagoning me) with a combination of wrong setup spec on her part. (Incidentally, that was also the last game where I misread Titus as scum when she wasn't, tho in hindsight, reading her play there in a dual iso, I can see her as town.) It was a read she wasn't sure on and she was hesitant to commit to it. She has a fairly strong record of reading me right.

Spoiler: Here's some examples

Townreading mastina's push on me to do VCA. Not sure how fruitful it is here, but mastina pushing an obvtown slot to be better is pretty obvtown.

I will vote mastina only if needed to progress the game. I think she's town here, but I am open to reassessing.

(This was pre-mason-reveal, post-mason-reveal obviously is different.)
Subject: Mini 2127 - Fairly Special [Game Over]

Mastina, can you join me on BP? I think you're wrong on Adorable but right on EP and BP. I also wouldn't locktown the hydra yet, but let's work together.

Subject: Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

Legit do not ask me to vote mastina again this game. I am not doing that. Period. Handle it yourselves. I am only voting mastina if I get annoyed with HER not getting to scum.

Titus has a very very strong record of working with me when she is town...even when I have erroneously scumread her. I can point to a lot of examples where Titus reaches out to me regardless of my read, so if I'm spending this much time on it, why not go further?

Spoiler: examples of Titus reaching out to me

I'm tempted to claim to help clear up my beeboy/Panzer theory but I'd only feel comfortable if I got help solving them/we did something about it. Scum may already know my role

Mastina, Chemist please comment

Based on the KPN, I would recommend sorting this out. We're lynching Panzer and I am leashed to vig beeboy.

I cannot fathom how town!mastina doesn't work with me here given how much she respects me and knows of my early game weakness.

(this one isn't an example so much as explaining the mastina-Titus dynamic in a nutshell and demonstrating what she expects of me and vice-versa)

Mastina, what is the established evidence you are referring to? I want you you correct me and talk to me, not talk at me. It does nothing to help me sort you or analyze my reads to have you talk to me as if I am beneath you. The change in your tone towards me is also striking. When Starbuck asked about your meta, you were all glowing about my abilities. Ever since then, you've been taking potshots at me and insinuating I could be scum because of our differing reads.

(This however IS a reachout from town-Titus to me with a wrong read on her.)

Subject: Krazy's Anime Upick (Game Over)

Give me 2 nights. If the power of Dark Cookies cannot resolve it, then we react.

That requires trust in you that I utterly lack.

Well, what's your other option? Lynch him and die?

Subject: Krazy's Anime Upick (Game Over)

(Generally speaking for a scumteam of four, the most you want is six. You can potentially have UP TO eight, but you don't really WANT to have more than six. Basically, scumteam of 4, 4 scumreads = perfect, 8 scumreads = maximum, 9+ = you're doing it wrong, 6 = most you want to have, 5 = perfectly fine, 7 = not optimal, but acceptable spot. So I have one more than I want, but one less than the maximum acceptable to have.)

I'll just pretend your SR of me is the extra one to shield me from scumkills.

(So're these.)

When Titus is town, she can not only fairly reliably pinpoint that I am town (and this is my towngame through and through), she will try to reach out to me and work with me even when I have a wrong read on her. Now contrast that to Titus this game:

mastina, why in tarnations am I reading AtE from you regarding who we eliminate? I'm not talking about the hercule defense but the options one through four nonsense.

This is literally

Titus's first content post in the entire game

, and it is a post shading me: she was calling my content AtE (it wasn't), and downplaying my contributions.

Her literal first post in the game isn't to reach out to me; it is to shade me, it is to downplay my influence, it is to try and weaken my position in the game.

Hi mastina.

It's easy to quote posts and say it's not my town game. You want me wagoned? Vote me. Try yet another wagon on town.

This is her next post towards me--this is the polar opposite of a reachout. This isn't trying to work with me; it is, again, actively shading me.

I'm not sure mastina's town. Her posts have a lot of words but say nothing. It's particularly true of her increasing FoS of me. She recycles her claim that I'm scum but there's no rationale or reasoning behind that or much of her other reads.

When people want help in reading me, she tries to sell them that an unreadable Titus is a scum!Titus. That's besides the fact that there is enough to get a weak read on me. The fact I have been unreadable is largely due to lack of content and life.

Mastina has used my slow start to keep me in a low bin and not engage with any content of my postings.

So, no. I do not follow Dann's theory.

Here she continues to misrep me--she portrays my posts as saying nothing (in spite of having earlier said not to sheep that line of thinking--why did she join in on the same train of thought she earlier objected to?), as well as misrepresenting my stance on her. I never said that Titus was unreadable and that unreadable Titus is scum Titus; I specifically said she WAS readable...and that the read on her was scum as a result.

She tries to justify her play as having been a slow start, ignoring that I have been scumreading her for far far more than just her low content. (Speaking of which, I'll get to that in a moment!)

VOTE: the worst
Mastina, help me bus worst.

This is the closest she ever gets to a reachout to me, but...

mastina's scum with TW. The moment I ask her to lim a scumread, she backs off the scumread. Her walls are IioA, especially 1905. Her "content" gives nothing verifiable. She just states someone is scum and then states their actions are scummy. She's trying to create a t v t atmosphere and people like dgb are eating it up. Mastina and the worst are scums.

She immediately backs out on it when I had fairly compelling reasons to not join and doubles down on the shading of my posts as "IIoA". She knows the fucking way I play and the way I explain things. She is well aware that the things I have posted this game are far, far, FAR from lacking analysis.

Titus as town radiates an aura of energy. Compare her iso from last game. Notice some things from it?

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

VOTE: Agar
If you think Dann's scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Titus immediately generates content here, and she was town.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

Oh, I should also warn you all that I will try to make a good impression early on then lurk it out to eternity
@Titus, the worst & Dunn: We all know you guys voting me is inevitable, so let's get it over with.

*refuses the power of the inevitable*
*looks at ABR*
*doubles down on that*

She manages to come across as lighthearted here rather than drop-dead serious. She was being playful in the last iteration of the game, friendly, but still providing content.

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

town: hercule, Dannflor, AGar
conflicted: the worst/Daddisi hydra
scum: VOTE: unwnd

How is Agar town? Daddisi hydra? This is a normal and team mafia.

Another good example of immediate analysis. She takes a firm stance, which while technically empty, you can trace the origin of it from the quote.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

No, my reaction to Titus was perfectly appropriate. I didn't realize Titus was on the playerlist during signups. I do not feel Titus takes a single thing I say in good faith and she proved that. I simply called that how I see it. That's called history. But jump to that defense there!

Just what post of yours did I "not take in good faith" and what does it mean to take that post in "good faith"?

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

ABR, do you get the feeling scum Agar just wants us to turn on each other?

These are good examples of her reaching out.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

couldnt you say wagons in general are usually not purely town

Town

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

ABR, do you get the feeling scum Agar just wants us to turn on each other?

Yes

Then why move?

More examples of reaching out and scumhunting.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

I'll be reading up tomorrow but I have a solid TR on ABR based on his wagon placement here. If I wasn't voting Agar, I would be voting the worst.

And already she was generating good reasons.

This continues and continues. Titus just radiated an energy of townness. She was lighthearted, she was casual, she was effortless, she was friendly, she was a town mediator, working with others and trying to establish a town core.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

@unwnd, Can you link your case? I didn't see a case, which may be due to life. I'm inclined to disagree because I like his reads though.

Here's more later.
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

Maybe it's my own impatience but I've mulling over my vote on AGar and came to my own conclusion he isn't going to respond. The game has changed and so too is the way I read most players. Back in the day I'd come through their words to spot contradictions but I find scum nowadays don't really give a shit about making convincing arguments, no, it's more about the presentation. Something that makes townies go 'well, by effort and substantiation he must be town!' because people have gotten so traumatized by a red PM these days and believe scum just won't effort as much as town that it's almost bordering ridiculous. I am against this mindset because it assumes that people enjoy losing, which I'm pretty sure if you're playing any game the objective is to win.

This vote is something almost all of my team agree on. I don't really bode well with (post) (post) (post) analysis and instead giving a general description of what I see.

As for what I see? I sorta let it slide but there was a moment where Hopkirk responded to me saying 'i kinda like to work list up and then down first, getting townreads'. This is fine in practice, yet he remained quite passive-aggressive. I also think that line alone is disingenuous but is playing a part of his style right now, which all seems quite excessive to me. I think Hopkirk in that instance only responded that way because it sounded good, not that he really believed it. If his MO was to look for townies and form townblocks, then what is his explanation of splintered ridicule throughout the ISO. The shift in dynamic doesn't bode with his own words. Go look at the way he silver tongues Hercule then ridicules others. This is not paraphrasing but this man really said 'don't like it when there's consequence for your actions, huh?' It's all based on

proving a point

which is both petty and scummy.

It'd be really easy and really lazy to say 'he is being LAMISTy' but seriously that's boring and using umbrella terms like that caution back to the days where people would do things like Why me = Fry me. Mafia Jargon doesn't make someone scum guys, and I actually think scum are more prone to be lazy about their reads because it's pretty difficult to try and convince people.

@titus this is it i am speeding this up hopefully i dont interfere with your methods

@okapoka, I have no plan right now. I'm too unfocused right now and I am having trouble seeing people's agendas. You can always try to assist me. I'll tell you if not helping.

Here's another.

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

Scum would bus AGar Day 1. Those wagons will be a gold mine.

You're speaking to my heart this game but my brain is paranoid.

This is a fine example of a town-Titus post.

But let's get to the really good part:
Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

@mastina, Welcome. Didn't see you sub in there. Can you talk about your Hercule scumread? I also didn't read his Agar defense but it seems like a lot of detail to be a fake read, particularly on a partner.

This was Titus, as town, making her first post towards me.
Notice the immediate difference?
She asks me to talk about my read, and engages me on it immediately.

Subject: TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

Mastina's scumreads have all started to attack and scumread her.

Why is it that Titus made this good observation last game yet ignores that similar happened this game, with her being one of the ones doing the attacking?

(I'm not quoting the Titus synergy with me--Titus and I synergizing is a huge towntell for us both where us doing so makes us basically honorary masons, but a lack of synergy between Titus and I is sadly not scum-indicative for either of us, so it is not something I could mention in my case in good faith. It'd help show that Titus's approach is fundamentally different this game, but it's not going to do much else.)

Now contrast Titus with this game.
Titus immediately opens up by declaring herself V/LA. She then proceeds to not post until the next day.
I immediately thought this scum because when Titus declared herself V/LA last game, she still found time to post that day.
When she declared V/LA a second time, she again posted on that same day, more than once in fact.

Think it was just that one game?
Try here, with an immediate post after. Twice in fact, following through.

Think it was just twice? Well this is game three, with a post that same day.

How about game four, where there was posting before the V/LA announcement and posting after it, still on the same day?
And how when she was V/LA, she still posted a plethora of times giving content while busy?

Good content, too, content giving actual stances, reads, reasons, and whatnot.

Titus in general has a similar approach to me when V/LA as town: she will continue to try and produce content even while V/LA, whereas when scum she will be less inclined to post content during her V/LA.

Her first post in this game was declaring V/LA. She did nothing else--no RVS vote? Why didn't Titus drop an RVS vote in her opening V/LA? Why didn't she read anything until her shade of me, which was her only post during her alotted V/LA time? She did nothing during that time.

She has been super-serious. There hasn't been the lighthearted good fun Titus from when she's town; it's been all business, no play.

She's flat and lifeless this game, not to mention more hostile, because simply put: Titus does not enjoy playing scum nearly as much as she enjoys playing town (another thing she has in common with me), and it shows:
Instead of being a town mediator making actual serious real attempts to bridge the town she makes token efforts that she doesn't follow through on.
She does the bare minimum to look town and take reasonable stances, without being the driving force.

I realize that this case is disorganized and not as well-referenced as it should be. I still have to catch up yaknow, and I am still multitasking. But Titus is just scum this game and has been from her very first post.

[Dunnstral]

But Titus is just scum this game and has been from her very first post.

The one where she went v/la......

[Dunnstral]

Titus do you agree that you look flat and lifeless this game?

[mastina]

I really don't think this is within Mastina's scumrange any more
The range of play you can expect from Mastina is directly linked to her real life headspace

I mean to be fair: during my internet outage this game, I didn't post content aside from voting Titus. In that regard, this could've been my scumgame because my real life headspace wasn't the best and I didn't do anything, whereas I try to do something when not in a good headspace when town.

Heck, on my return, I said I would be trying to be back yesterday, but didn't post content yesterday in that post at all, and didn't come back later until today to make the content. So that's another possible scum sign.

That having been said, the fact that it's 4:30 am right now and I've yet to eat supper should be a sign of how much I am here right now. (And I will continue to catch up until exhaustion makes me unable to. I'm not tired yet, but eventually we'll reach the point of diminishing returns.) Since I started at 12:30 am, that's 4 hours of being here. Multitasking (by which I mean watching the LCK), but still here and nowhere else, pretty sure.

And while I will be juggling other online obligations with mafiascum and will be V/LA on this Friday/Saturday for the same reason I was last week, by and large even when I reach the point of exhaustion and am unable to post meaningful content tonight, it'll continue into tomorrow and Thursday. Not gonna lie; I am not always placing mafiascum as my top priority and headspace-wise, yes, this game isn't something I'm always in the mood for; pretty sure I could've posted during some times but chose not to. But overall, my presence here will speak for itself over time.

Effort != alignment, but the total thread presence, what's done when, and with what mindset, can be.

But I digress. I'd rather show I'm town with things like my Titus case rather than by self-meta.

And yes I realize it's a quote wall but it is mostly substantiating claims I've been making the whole game:

I normally am happy to work with her even if I am scumreading her, assuming she is cooperative and not arguing in bad faith and/or shading me and/or portraying my posts in a negative light.

And on top of that, her first engagement with me wasn't a reachout; her first engagement with me looked like it was bad faith or shade or negative light.

I have substantiated this in the Titus case by showing examples of how Titus reaches out to me and works with me normally, contrasting to her immediate shade of me this game.

Chennisden has some thoughts that I'll be paraphrasing over here. He agrees with me on IV scum and LLD town, so at least that's something.

He has weak TRs on Ceph, dann and mastina. Basically, he feels they are town but nothing beyond their scumrange. Jjh is town. He doesn't like dgb 406/407. I have DGB near locktown. I don't see scum!DGB flailing this hard over a town!LLD elim.

I need to read Dunn to see if IV is bussing or not. @DGB, Can you run your thoughts supposing Oka is pocketed? Chenn says that's easy to do. Chenn has them as town.

dgb scumreads me so i wouldnt be pocketed @titus

I am asking them to reevaluate. I am aware they scumread you as of the post I am quoting. New information may change a read.

I really do need to explain why this is Titus's scumgame here at some point but it baffles me that people are giving a free pass to posts like this. I know what Titus would be doing if she were town; this isn't it. Not like this at least.

These are examples of Titus being a scum mediator, which in the Titus case I contrast by showing examples of Titus as a town mediator, to help establish the difference between the two. Here, Titus was being weak, distant, and not actively engaging, whereas I've shown how she is not that when town.

so titus whatcha going to do about the current "tvt" gamestate then?

Hint: this is actually a significant part of why I am scumreading Titus here.

Titus did nothing to meaningfully break up the gamestate. People have said "but Titus voted the worst" / "but Titus voted Ythan" as 'proof' that she did try. Except I've shown how Titus, when town, does more than that. (Tho I suppose I could add more quotes where I show what Titus as town does to break up TvT fights to show why her Ythan/worst pushes aren't that.)

(I will also say that the way Titus has handled my slot is not her town meta btw. I can explain that, but I'm not sure where to start in describing the difference between Titus as town reaching out and Titus as scum. This is the latter, not the former, and pretty blatantly so, but I do realize it's something that requires background and history to help establish.)

I have shown over multiple games how Titus treats my slot and explained the Titus-mastina dynamic by showing it in past games and even quoting Titus's perspective on the mastina-Titus dynamic.

^so why do you think dgb is town?

Earnest belief in a wrong read.

If Titus were town by the way, this would be her read on me.

Titus is intimately familiar with how I play the game; she knows this is not my scumgame and that this is my towngame through and through. She would know not only a loose idea of why I'm pushing LLD (even if she disagreed with the push), but ALSO know why I'm pushing

her

. She would have reached out to me, say something akin to the effect of "mastina I know where you're coming from but you're wrong" to me, and then tried to work with me, ask for me to trust her, ask for me to work with her, try to sway me.

Instead?
Titus opens the game shading me. No attempt to see where I was coming from, and instead a rather unflattering and blatantly inaccurate portrayal of my posts at the time. She blatantly opens with, instead of an attempt to understand me (or even her instantly knowing where I am coming from), a strong shade of me that she should know was not reflective of reality.

And then she says nothing about me again. She ignores my posting until literally 28 posts of hers later. She didn't address me, she didn't talk to me at all, over 28 posts, with her first post being shading of me and her next post being the polar opposite of a reachout, the polar opposite of trying to work with me. She didn't try to convince me she's town; she put up false bravado.

This is something I can prove with meta, too, it just takes a lot of time to gather the links to show this dynamic. It is a Titus-specific scumtell and specifically a Titus-mastina oriented one.

That's not the entirety of my Titus case, by the way. There's two additional points, both of which also I can prove pretty effectively with time, but I lack the energy to do so right now. The first is energy-levels. Titus this game has no energy, no passion, no life to her posting. It's flat, dull, mechanical, precise. You can contrast this to last game fairly easily, but given time I could prove that this tone is scum-Titus because I've countless games with both town Titus and scum Titus and can tell tonally that this is a scum-Titus who is largely uninvested in the game due to being scum.

The other point is that Titus is being a scum mediator. What's a "scum mediator"? Again, that's something which takes game links to help show. But basically, the short version is, Titus as town is a town mediator, who reaches out to players and tries to get them to work with her. This ties into points one and two as well, but basically Titus will, even on D1, even when struggling to keep up with the game, be providing good insight with actual stances backed by reasons and take rather strong opinions and reach out to others to work with them.

Whereas Titus as scum does the scum equivalent. She paraphrases the thoughts of others, to present them in a more presentable form. She says that players are town or scum, but she makes no true effort in trying to get the town to listen to her because she doesn't feel a need to.

Again--I realize I am not backing these claims up with proof, without the meta, and I want to write the proper case where I show these things over time.

But when I said I'm pretty damn sure Titus is scum this game.

I had some pretty damn strong reasons for it; I mean it when I say I have a borderline-soulread on her.

And I have substantiated this claim by showing games where Titus called me exactly this--earnest belief in a wrong read. She has said this to me multiple times across multiple games that I quoted in 3931; why not this game?

Please do then

Town

For a start, an immediate vote and sorting which were absent from here.

hmmm. It's not as much as I thought when I was writing it out but it still feels like you have a lot of empty confidence on multiple theories that sort of falls apart if any of them are kind of false

If something does go wrong, I'll reasses. Right now, I have my theory of the game I stand by.

A town Titus does not say this, by the way.

y not?

Basically it boils down to Titus's approach to the game. Titus will stand by her theories, but her theories are subject to the evidence; they can and will shift if she is given strong reason to reassess. Them only shifting if "something goes wrong" implies a level of confirmation bias that Titus as town wouldn't have, basically.

And I've also shown this fairly well I feel.

Who has *very different* vibes from last game?

Titus from the onset. Seriously, read her posts last game where she was town and see if her posts this game have the same energy to them, the same tone to them. (Hint: they don't, on every level.)

I have substantiated this by showing the different vibes from Titus this game compared to last.

I think that's one too many, so I may have a townbeard in my SRs

For the record--this is once more not a Titus-town mindset. If Titus were town here with too many scumreads, it would trigger a reevaluation from her of the gamestate and her assumptions, not to mention her reads. The fact that she knows how shitty my scumgame is and knows my town meta fairly intimately yet is insisting I am scum without reassessing that at all is one example of this, but it's very widespread.

I am telling you. On every level--this is not Titus as town; this is Titus's scumgame. I'm actually becoming more sure Titus is scum than LLD is scum (when I am pretty damn sure LLD is scum).

There was a world where Titus could be town...but the more and more from Titus I see, the more and more I realize that world just doesn't exist. (Basically, to explain this: certain normally-scum-indicators for Titus can, situationally, in specific circumstances, actually not be scum-indicators for her, and be either null or even situationally town for her in spite of generally being Titus scumtells. That's why Titus started as 80% scum rather than 100% scum; the remaining 20% was the possibility of Titus being in those situational circumstances. But the more and more Titus scumtells, with multiple different Titus-specific scumtells piling up over time, the less and less likely it is that this is her in those situational circumstances, and with the multitude of Titus scumtells, the chances of her being scum go up to nearly 100%. If I had to estimate, it'd be in the 99% percentile. I'm

that

sure this isn't Titus as town.)

I have shown this as well.

Titus my main problem with you is you have these seemingly strong reads like LLD!town and the_worst!scum

but I haven't really seen you try to push these reads in any reasonably forceful way. I get not wanting to add noise to the thread but your actions don't seem to line up with what you're saying. Like, you've wound up on the same wagon as Bell, purportedly your strongest scum read. And as someone who self proclaims to pay a lot of attention to VCA, that feels off coming from you.

Like I would wall post about these qualms because I think it's a trackable pattern throughout your ISO of making these claims that I would think town!you should feel very strongly about in this current game state, but your actions are half hearted. Like you say you tried to get people on your side, but you never spent much time trying to get a wagon going on the_worst. Like you voted there, but a lot of the actual content you put out, like aligning VCA with DGB's reads, feels like busy work rather than anything that's actually trying to progress your view of the game.

And it seems you've kinda 'given up' now because everyone seems fixated on LLD regardless what you or anyone says, which is somewhat fair, but I haven't really seen you make a concerted effort to get the fixation off of her, even though you say you want to.

anyway I'm not gonna wall post because I figure it's better to directly engage you now that you're in thread

The funny thing is, this is basically half of my case on Titus, just from Dann's wording rather than my own.

And I have been able to substantiate Dannflor's own Titus case by showing what HE was talking about.

[mastina]

The last game had no repeat modifiers. For what that's worth.

In general? Normals almost never do. The most likely repeat modifier is identically-numbered X-shot, e.g. 2-3 2-shot roles. (Maybe Compulsive gets repeats but even that's rare, too.)

Announcing is almost always one of a kind; Complex is almost always one of a kind; Loyal/Disloyal is almost always a maximum of 2 (double-Loyal with no Disloyal, double-Disloyal with no Loyal, or one of each); you never see two even-nights or two odd-nights together (tho obviously even/odd is a common pairing and you CAN see even/odd with nonconsecutive); Indecisive, Loud, Lazy, Macho, the same Night-specific (there was one Normal which was borderline themed with repeats, but by and large you're not gonna see two N2-roles tho you can and will see N1-role, N2-role, N3-role), novice, personal, roaming, simple, weak. All have in common.

You almost never see a repeat.

Can you? Why, sure. You can and do see Normals with repeat modifiers, heck, even repeat exact roles e.g. Town Trackerx2.

But it's rare, the exception to the general rule of no repeat.

Which, again: makes me skeptical of the Announcing Babysitter-visit claim from Titus.

It's not impossible; it's just...highly unusual and statistically questionable to say the least. (It's not probable. Is it plausible? Not sure if it's in plausible territory or possible-but-implausible territory, hard to tell on D2 with what I've got.)

[mastina]

Vig to consider holstering

Um no, fuck that.

Let's ask mastina!

Eh depends on the vig role. Full, ungated, and with good reason to believe they can get more than one shot off? Sure, they can vig again so long as they do so N2 and N3, OR, town stops a kill, OR, if the babysitter is real they get a kill.

Basically, we're at 15 players now, on odds. If the vig gets two more kills with no town killstops and no town babysitter death, we stay on odds. Or if the vig gets one more kill with a town killstop, or if the vig gets one more kill with a town babysitter death, the game stays on odds.

But if the vig is gated, there is merit to holstering due to us being on odds now.

It's really highly dependent and only the vig should have the right to make that call, honestly.

[mastina]

if i get miseliminated or vigged we will have fucking WORDS

Pretty much, yeah.

Hopkirk
innocentvillager
Xtoxm
Cephrir
^This is the townbloc: the names that are very very strongly town, to the point of never being eliminated. Cephrir's maybe a bit iffy there I realize, he's a good scum player, but I don't think his conviction on DGB comes from scum here.

hercule/Luca Blight
jjh927
^This is the townlock: the names that were very very strongly town on D1, but on D2 I'm not sure are townbloc material. I still maintain that they are poor eliminations.

Dunnstral
Almost50
Winter Flakes (alt of Uncrowned)
^This is the upper-mess ("the mess" being a term I'm borrowing from Spawn in the OPL): players I was townreading on D1, but not enough to lock them as town, who're still possible as scum.

the worst/Bell
Ythan
^This is the lower-mess: players who I scumread on D1, but had reasonable doubts about where they showed they could be town, with them having reasons to not be scum.


OkaPoka
AGar
^These are the strong scumreads, scumreads I feel I have damn good foundation for.

Titus
^And this is the person who I just went to [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12603253]make a case on.

If the town EVER eliminates the players in the townbloc, they, frankly: deserve to lose. Those players just aren't scum and will never flip scum here and are the most town in the game right now so if the town eliminates them, they've nobody to blame but themselves for the inevitable scum win due to the town wasting an elimination on a town player. I'd apply this to the vig, too: the vig shooting any of the names in this group is literal gamethrowing.

Mostly ditto for the townlocks, albeit with less certainty. Let's differentiate it by saying the vig shooting there wouldn't be gamethrowing, just...suboptimal, akin to their shitty-ass DGB shot; a shot that seems reasonable at the time for the information it generates but which has a 0% chance at hitting scum.

[jjh927]

I don't see why Titus would lie about an announcing babysitter, Mastina

Logically we should have another person be targeted in n2

If it was a lie it would serve no purpose and also become gradually less credible as the game went on

[jjh927]

I know you did just make a gigantic scumcase on Titus but I now chumread her

[mastina]

Does hercule scum make sense here to those of you who like to read game states

Absolutely not.

[mastina]

This was basically what I just did too, but looking back do you not think Titus pushing for the Ythan wagon in light of TRing both LLD and DGB is town indicative?

Absolutely not.

Ythan, representing Half a Good Team Plus Two - null

vote: ythan

The sudden chainsaw wagon on me is also very indicative of scum defending a partner. Mastina A50 TWslot plus one on my wagon plus Ythan

Is there any chance of a cfd back to Ythan?

@Creature, If LLD is town, can you take another look at Ythan?

fake vc

Lady Lambdadelta

(8): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Hopkirk, Ythan, jjh927, innocentvillager, Luca Blight

DrippingGoofball

(7): Dunnstral, Cephrir, OkaPoka, Lady Lambdadelta, Bell, Dannflor, Winter Flakes

Ythan

(2): AGar, Almost50

Not Voting

(1): Titus
With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for 11:00 AM PST on February 12, in (expired on 2021-02-12 15:00:00).

My initial instinict is this is T v T and scum don't care which is eliminated as judged by A50 sitting on the sidelines. A no lim would work beautifully here as town focuses on T v T again tomorrow. So it really wouldn't matter who I choose here.

It could be scum refusing to bus. LLD's front is just atrocious with mastina and Ythan on it. After Ythan though, it's a pure wagon. DGB's wagon is pure mostly. In the T v S setup, I would have to doubt LLD and Winter. In fact if LLD flips scum, my eyes go straight to Winter. mastina makes a point of breaking up LLD myself Agar and OkaPoka. I townread all of them, so voting LLD goes really against my self interest. Then there's the fact DGB is right and someone has to compromise. LLD hasn't claimed. Then again DGB hasn't either now. I was hoping that as I slept the decision would be made for me and all I would have to do is hammer.

I have just quoted every instance of Titus's Ythan "push" on D1.

No explanation for Ythan's move to scum, with the vote being naked. A mention of him in the scum candidates. Asking for a cfd, but with no direction.

The closest to town analysis from Titus is her asking LLD-Creature for review on Ythan, but LLD was the one being wagoned.
She gives basic explanation of TvT, but where's her reachouts to the players who can make a difference?

Why not talk to IV or Luca Blight, who're by Titus's words, 'pure'? Why not try to get Luca and/or IV to vote Ythan? Why not talk to them?
On DGB's wagon, why not talk to Cephrir/Dunnstral and try to get them to see the error of their ways?

In the Oka/AGar bloc, why not try to work with them when Titus acknowledged it?

I understand not working with Bell, but what about Dannflor? Why not try to convince him to go back to Ythan, a spot he previously was at? Dannflor had voted Ythan, so if Titus really wanted a wagon there, why not talk to him? Similarly for Winter Flakes.

Titus didn't actually push Ythan. She put the illusion of pushing him, but where in your iso do you see her push him?

She didn't.

I can however point out where Titus, as town, tries to push in games she DOES feel it is TvT and show that.

[Dunnstral]

So despite my post at the start of the day, I can see reasons for a lot of people being town

[innocentvillager]

IV's a bit of an oddity; he preferred Titus yesterday, did take stances, but didn't think a scum flip was likely.

i feel like i at least low-confidence called it TvT yesterday, does that give me scumpoints lol, or am i just too towny otherwise ;P

so mastina you think it's Ythan/Titus scumpair?

[AGar]

1) What more can I do? You tell me.
2) I can only vote one person at a time, so I don't really need to make a case on someone I'm not voting today.

1) You could exert energy on that slot at least somewhat close to what you're exerting on Oka.
2) You've spent almost all of your Day 2 energy on Oka, yet you won't make a formal case, because "you aren't voting them", but you won't do anything about the person you're voting?

VOTE: Almost50

[AGar]

Which, again: makes me skeptical of the Announcing Babysitter-visit claim from Titus.

Me, pointing out that a scumteam would have 15 coaches all who would be able to chime in directly or indirectly that this claim would receive this exact scrutiny.

[innocentvillager]

meh, I don't mind mastina's Titus case, it seems reasonable (but im biased because i also have Titus as a scum-candidate)

main thing making me skeptical is I don't know how much cherrypicking mastina did, and im a bit too lazy to go through all the games/isos myself to see if i get the same impression

i agree it's kind of bizarre to think that Titus faked the babysitter visit claim, regardless of the basal probability of there being repeat Announcing modifiers

At some point you have to bayesian update a little

[mastina]

@Mastina when was the last time you rolled scum from a completed game?

It hasn't changed since the last time you were in a game and I was asked this. Let me verbatim quote it again to give you the refresher.

Mastina effort usually means one thing imo. Lesson learnt from a certain game.
- Norwee

I am morally obligated to point out that, for the first time in two years, I did have a scumgame where I efforted.

And since it ended before I signed up for this one, it is one that FL could on scouting have seen.

But yes, in general, efforting does mean I'm more likely to be town. It's just sadly not a 100% lock-towntell now.

Mastina I believe to be town but *technically* she could be scum in the event Creature is town and she had a really good D1 -- like I don't think she is scum but I have never seen mastina scum, either, so perhaps she didn't exit her scumrange but it'd have to be quite big.

I can help (well, "help") you there:
At my absolute peak scum performance levels, D1 is not out of scumastina's scum range altogether, albeit requiring a perfect storm of me being at highest-level functioning capabilities across multiple areas rather than in one or two more specific areas. ~2015-2017-era scumastina was genuinely one of the best scum players onsite with a huge, huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge flexibility to her scumgame and notably gifted at situational awareness to adapt her scumplay to perfectly fit the needs of the particular game as to maximize her team's chances at winning.

However.

Over the last two years, my scumgame has been utterly atrocious. I've been a total lurksack whose contributions were notably lackluster with the difference between my scumplay and townplay being night and day, with my scumplay being minimal, using every excuse to avoid content, and coasting by with my towngame being more energetic.

However

however, I DID just have a scumgame where I approached near-peak-scumastina-levels. I was still, very visibly, not in my towngame, and there were multiple scum traits of mine present, but I exuded a "town aura" as scum, something which is

very

hard to pull off, yet I have shown the capacity to do as given by that game. Radiating townness as scum is something within my scumrange, which is why I invented the flowchart for how to read me.

The flowchart is, notably, a little dated; it's missing some of my most recent town/scumtells and in the case of being reasonable and rational, this is something that has become almost nai. (I am more reasonable and rational as both alignments and as town can be very convincing with logical deductions and outlining the process behind my conclusions, so just on a skim, you'd think nai, but as scum my arguments still tend to be even more "precise" than their town counterparts, extra-targeted, extra-concise in comparison, extra on-point, whereas my town cases tend to always have weaknesses in them if you look beyond the surface. Which is to say, my scum cases tend to be more "perfect" than my town cases are, in spite of me being logical in both.)

And a key aspect of it is that I'll never show every town trait in a towngame and never show every scum trait in a scumgame and may show some scum traits in a towngame and definitely will show some town traits in a scumgame, but that overall it is incredibly hard, over a sustained period of time, borderlining on nigh-impossible levels, for me to maintain a presence of almost all towntells as scum, whereas they flow more naturally as town.

Basically, while I will suffer burnout as both alignments, it's easier to suffer burnout as scum because being scum at the highest level of effort is more draining than being town at the highest level of effort (even though both are, notably, draining; I am incapable of maintaining the highest level of effort as town indefinitely, which is why I frequently have a mixture of low/high-energy posting days, with low ones being rest time and high ones being active time). The cracks in scumastina form over time with continued observation; the solidification of town-mastina becomes more readily apparent given time.

So that is to say,
tl;dr?
D1's not impossible from scumastina, but is incredibly improbable to be her.

Plus, while for the last two years, I have been ridiculously obviously scum due to my inability to effort as scum with me being transparently obviously scum in literally all of my scumgames during that period, my most recent scumgame notably lacked that trait. And while I loathe being scum and find hard-efforting to be too tedious and not worth it, the fact that my last scumgame was doing so is proof that I could be this game.

is Mastina capable of going sicko mode on BM D1 like that as scum?

Theoretically? Yes, it's possible. I'm pretty sure I've done it before in some past scumgame of mine. I think rather notably I was hyper-aggressive in that game where I was a hydra with Katsuki and eliminated the BROseidon/AngryPidgeon hydra during the day who had perfect reads yet they got mislynched. So it's something that is something I theoretically have the capability to do.

In reality? Probably not, mafia games are hella draining especially going hyper-aggressive. As-is, it's hard to maintain as town (a lot of my townplay actually resolves around trying to get myself nightkilled early, just so that I can chill in the dead thread, because it's less stressful, less effort, once I am dead and every day I'm alive is a drain), but as scum instead of those thoughts being genuine I'd instead have to

fake

them. Which is harder than pouring genuine heart and soul into things.

@mastina: Can you link that recent scum game where you efforted once more?

Sure, it's this one here.

@mastina: Can you link that recent scum game where you efforted once more?

Sure, it's this one here.

For the record: it might help you to iso MathBlade that game (and also read the dead thread since he did a good job of explaining that, while that was a

good

scum game of mine, why it was still a scumgame due to aspects of my towngame being absent.

Basically, it was a fairly good scumgame, but there were still gaps in it.

Also, I realize it's not as obvious while doing an iso, that it's something hard to detect even in the postgame, but anecdotally if you were in the game at the time and were able to observe it in real time you'd instantly see:
In that game, there was a larger space between my content compared to this game in quite a lot of spaces. I often didn't post if I didn't have a need to. And if I did post, I often posted, overall, less, except during specific times of engagement where I was able to exude my town aura. Which is to say: I could not, from the getgo, from the onset, continuously and throughout the entirety of the game, maintain the town aura, maintain the energy of my town self. And the few times I did manage to do so, I usually had good justification. (There is a notable pickup in my play when I was able to use mechanics, as mechanics is something I am really damn good at regardless of my alignment and which helps mimic town-mastina even as scumastina; Dunnstral was genuinely such a lurksack to an extent that I've never seen from him before that if not for knowing I was scum I'd have been convinced he was scum, so it was easy to pressure him as such.)

Like I said--something like that is a bit hard to see in the aftermath of the game, but if you were there at the time, you'd be like, "oh yeah, I totally see that", where I lacked the energy to maintain it full time and most of the time I did have the energy, I was given ammunition which made it easy to have done so.

This game, however, my energy has been pretty damn consistent, even during the times where I've felt less useful. I've not had a 100% absolutely identical energy level every single rl day in this game, but the energy still was high, shifted forms from one to another and still was high, and even when I had less to offer, was higher overall. I've had moments of lower energy from rl stuff, rl distractions, etc., but I feel that overall, I've been triumphing over that energy lull from those rl things and managed to still try to give a ton even when at a lowpoint in mental/physical/emotional wellbeing. (For instance, I've been sick since Thanksgiving. I said as much in this gamethread, you may recall. I said, "hey, fair warning, am sick, so may not be able to do as much as normal". I'm still sick, with that same sickness, because it never went away, it's still here a full month later, but in spite of that, I've still been doing a lot.)

So while it is, of course, theoretically possible for me to be scum.
It'd have been an even bigger improvement on my scumgame. If this were a scumgame of mine, it'd literally be the best scumgame I've ever pulled off.

I will say however that there's another big thing that does give me towncred tho; I literally wrote the book on not bussing. You can see it evident in that micro; in the game, were I town, I'd have been scumreading Gypyx from D1 because his content that game was something easy to scumread and hard to townread, but instead I forced a townread because I wanted to use my influence to influence the town into thinking Gypyx was town.

In this game I reassessed Bell on D2, added evidence to the pile for Bell being scum, continued to campaign for Bell's death even after the IC urged us to spare Bell, called Bell-DEB as scum-scum, called DEB scum the entire game, and ultimately was hugely involved in the deaths of both scum.

This doesn't clear me--I pushed DEB but never voted him until D4; pushing Bell over DEB means little when both are scum; I initially had Bell as town and townier than two flipped town even at the beginning of D2; I was late on the initial Bell wagon; regardless of who's scum in Solstice/Ircher/PBE/Spiffeh I've defended all four of them rather heavily so fit as being a scumbuddy for any of them; I can and have bussed before, so me bussing in spite of writing the article on not bussing doesn't inherently clear me, because while I have a strong aversion to bussing in general, I can bus if I feel there is an actual strong reason to which would give us more reward than the risk involved (and you can pretty easily make the case that I thought the bus was worth it, there's enough to weave half a dozen or so narratives where I justify it).

But while it doesn't clear me, I do feel like it at least gives me fairly good ground to stand on in terms of towncred.

[Is Mastina willing to call three different town players confirmed 100% lockscum as mafia and then give lengthy cases for each of them? like does she have the scumrange to do so, I mean. it's impressive if so. i could not for the life of me find a good and recent mastina!scum game example.]

Oh I've done it before, but it's a rarity. I

think

the only time I've done that as scum was Anything Goes, but that was, explicitly, with the influence of Katsukii. (As a hydra, I tend to be influenced by the style of my hydra partner, picking up some of their quirks and traits. In that case, I picked up on some of Katsukii's aggression, tho that game was still mostly Katsukii rather than me; about 7-8/10 of the hydra's posts were Katsukii rather than me. (Notably: while not every post that's proper spelling/capitalization/grammar is me, if the post isn't proper spelling/capitalization/grammar it is for sure Katsukii.)

The closest beyond that would probably be Inorganic Chemistry. I had a (rather deliberate--I orchestrated it to deliberately make people think it was a TvT fight so that people would write me off as town) heated engagement with the Titus/Metal Sonic hydra, but I don't remember if I had that same energy pursuing other town players.

I THINK that's the only examples tho, that otherwise it hasn't happened at all. So, it's within my theoretical capacities as scum; in reality, it's far less so.

[Lul. This is the first and probably only occurrence i can think of where a player finds SvS to be the most likely option. And mastina goes back on it later when I think she could have gotten away with still pushing that without getting DEB killed. If I'm right, i think this progression makes mastina town.]

Devil's advocate: TMI is a thing and scumastina revels in using the truth as her weapon. My driving philosophy as scum is literally that the truth is your ally and that you can weaponize it to be genuine and sincere as scum and use that sincerity to tonally feel town to others and garner townreads.

But, yes, it'd have been a double-bus from me when I'm less inclined to do that normally, and yes, I did back out at a time where as scum I could have kept going on it. (For the record: there is a general towntell of someone correctly calling someone scum, but then out of paranoia, second-guessing themselves and hopping off. It's not a solid towntell, especially not due to players like me knowing about it and being able to theoretically abuse it as scum, but I do think that behavior usually does come from town even if the town often thinks it's from scum.)

[This is the first parallel I noticed -- prior to this post, I would say you have not been the same as this game. You've bounced your vote around 4 times, i wouldnt say you've really gone all out with your reasoning (as you can see here where you explain you aren't) whereas with BM you felt very dialed in and solid. Even before BM you had like, an extremely rigid and confident readslist where you confirm towned people, strong towned people, and so on. Just a result of this setup's draft phase being unique? Maybe, but still, vibes are different and obviously they continue on as you scumread BM/Creature.]

Right, that would be the point where I had mechanics to work off of--while I am a mechanical player regardless of my alignment, mechanics talk helps scumastina more than it does me as town because mechtalk allows for me to be more sincere/genuine and fake scumhunt better.

Also, fun fact. The linked post you gave is 100% true; regardless of my alignment, I

am

lazy, I

will

leave things out when I feel them unnecessary, I

do

like to hold back for reactions; I

do

like narratives, all as town just as much as when scum. But while I may have made a post like that game's 199 before as town, I legit think that most of the times I've made a post like that, I was scum.

Also, I never once made a readslist that scumgame. I can make readslists as scum, but it's been a trait absent from my scumgames for two years. It's fully possible this game is the first scumgame of mine in two years to have it, because it's possible for my scumgame to have gotten even better. But, yeah, the definitive readslist for the last two years

has

been a towntell, yes.

[Looking thru it looks like you put an overwhelming amount of effort into .. casing why a townie is town, so far.]

Oh yeah I do that as both alignments, but I do it slightly more often as scum probably. As town I'll do it mostly when the player I am very strongly defending is at risk of being eliminated. I still do so as scum during those times (and Nic was in fact doing just that), but I do it more often and more consistently and on more players with me typically focusing less on offense overall. scumastina has a bad tendency to be overall too defensive. Whereas town-mastina will use the poe to launch an offense, and use defense mostly to defend the offense.

I feel like mastina scum would just concede, I don't think she has a high stake in the game to play it out. DGB is trolly though so she would.

Oh I very much would not. I realize people aren't too familiar with my scumgame due to me having gone basically two years without rolling scum and even when that ridiculously long townstreak (like 23ish games in a row) was broken it was for incredibly lackluster games.

But I never concede, I never give up.

Not even when given the absolute most bullshit of bullshit scumgames where the setup is tremendously horrifically townsided, replacing in to find myself at the end of the night solo-scum, with a scum role designed to be eliminated during the day specifically meant to be eliminated as the last original groupscum.

I am, notably, the opposite; I am someone who would in fact fight to the bitter end, and I have done so on multiple occasions, quite notably so.

Also notable from me:
I feel obligated to point out that I can play multiple ways as scum. It's difficult to pull off as scum, but it's not impossible for scumastina to do most styles. (Tho hyper-aggro is, arguably, impossible for scumastina to maintain.)

I can be hesitant in my reads but it's usually after they are conclusively proven wrong--i.e. provably-conftown claiming when I suspected them, and/or a slot flipping during the day/night.

Hesitance in my reads prior to that is a rarity because I fucking hate it and actively try to not be hesitant in them. Even right now I am trying to not hesitate on things like my Dunn-town callout (hey I can actually keep this verbatim as Dunn is a town callout of mine here! ), because my overwhelming urge to not be hesitant is stronger than my doubts in my confidence on that slot. I'd rather be sure and wrong than doubt and be right.


Is this a sufficient answer for you, Bell?

[mastina]

Calling another player a monkey is not acceptable.

...Not even Almost50 whose avatar for basically his entire time onsite has been one???

Sadface.

[Xtoxm]

given lld died he didn't try especially hard
like he was pushing me with a shitpush that every person who commented on it said it was a terrible push. that's not 'trying' to divert a wagon

reading up to your later list i see that weaker townread is 6-7th from the bottom. does his later posting quoted below move him down for you?

i wouldnt say he tried especially hard to kill me last game either - he expressed his opinion, voted me and left it there.
i've seen his push on you, and obviously, disagree with it. he's made various takes i've disagreed with. im wondering if its just in his town playstyle, though.
i think ive got him in the right spot, he's offered more than the names in the category below.
its worth noting i only have the 4 true town reads, that i feel good about, those in the top category. i wish i could get some more names in there. i'd be unsurprised (expect, even) to find scum in the other categories somewhere. the poe is currently where i'm most optimistic of finding scum, though.

VOTE: luca
the spirit of dann flows through me

so have you been looking into dann's posts before eod? could you elaborate on your thoughts here, this is very bare bones.
why luca over bell, for example?

Adding Xtoxm to the list of my townreads on the advice of petapan, who says he's worlds away from his play in the previous game and in FL vs Hectic. Petapan also TR's Dunnstral.

Which reminds me of Xtoxm's strange reaction to me suspecting him. It's already evident I misread him in the first game, so he can't even argue that I'm good at reading him.

whats strange?
you think it gives you a free pass to scum read me this game?

im glad you're back, mastina. im at least initially impressed by the titus case, in my current sleep deprived state. i'll take a proper look at it with auro.

--

auro's also come through with an updated reads list, as follows:

{Mastina, InnocentVillager, Luca Blight}
{Hopkirk, Ythan}
{Cephrir, OkaPoka, jjh927}
{Titus, A50}
{AGar}
{Dunnstral}
{Bell, Winter Flakes}