Newbie 2054 - GAME OVER

[marcistar]

So here's what I'm seeing: both Marci and Harumi start off null/townlean on Chosen. Marci white knights him the whole way (rather obsessively), while Harumi briefly entertains him as scum before putting him back to null. And they're attacking each other and cross-voting. So my hot-take is that they're buddies and sensing Chosen as a likely elim and both looking for some "told ya so" town cred when he flips town while also establishing some distancing from each other.

i like ur hot take

[Krazy]

I mean Harumi is also an okay elim if only because then it forces Marci to stop sitting on that wagon, which is productive for the gamestate regardless of Marci's alignment. If Marci is scum she's using the harumi tunnel to position herself away from other wagons and if she's town then she's going to have a hard time re-evaluating the gamestate if she's wrong on that slot.

I'm also thinking about Alisae saying Harumi was top lim then flipping to Chosen but yeah idk

VOTE: chosen

claim boyo this is a de facto e-1 since alisae will definitely vote you and cantrip isn't opposed to your wagon either

[marcistar]

if she's town then she's going to have a hard time re-evaluating the gamestate if she's wrong on that slot.

do you think it will be??? i thought it was gonna be fine if this scenario happens... but maybe... aaaaah

[Krazy]

pretty much
I'm town lean on Italiano, Kazyan, and Cantrip
IVD has good takes, posts like 67 especially sing town
Kazyan's 109 seems to be a decent analysis of a D1 posting pattern on Krazy.
Cantrip's interaction with Kazyan looks towny to me.

Nulls for the rest right now

when is D1 end?
I'll give a small list
Alisae, I'd Townread you for the info alone. Moreso the move with the hammer and E-1, I don't think scum would be ballsy enough to do that D1. it screams town at me.
IVD, townlean, sparse posts but is sharp on what comes out. voting presence feels weak because of it though,
Krazy, townlean, I thought it was opportunistic to jump on a latecomer, I do see good things from her in terms of content
Cantrip, townlean, it's near the end of D1, I've mostly seen delay but I can't criticize on this point. the walls are nice and I like that he puts in the quotes, it makes me think in the future he wants his post understood easily in iso
Meuh, null, tbf fair to kazyan she has actually done stuff I did as scum, but it's D1 and I wouldn't consider that a severe D1 problem.
Kazyan, scumlean, I like his statements where he describes how he's reasoning, but I can't help but think he's picked out someone who exhibits signs I showed in last game. Almost courting my vote by meta, I don't like it.
Marci, scumlean, I've been unable to parse whether her defense on me has been about pocketing me, but it has gone on far longer than I thought it would honestly. I don't really see it as earning towncred on a flip as that'd be the first thing most would ask.
Harumi, scumlean, same issue of being a non-entity in terms of only a vote presence. I'm behind her by 3 posts

Pedit:
I'm like half falling asleep and stared at the cookie monster gif way to long, so that's all I can give right now, night

I'm curious about the kazy trajectory here as well as the 'sing town" and "scream town" statements which feel a little weird

[Krazy]

if she's town then she's going to have a hard time re-evaluating the gamestate if she's wrong on that slot.

do you think it will be??? i thought it was gonna be fine if this scenario happens... but maybe... aaaaah

oh, not really no, harumi can flip scum. I think I said something different than what I meant. I more meant you will have a hard time evaluating the game if you are town and don't get that flip

[Krazy]

At this point, I'd probably say I'm scumleaning on Harumi, because they're keeping up their pattern of messages being either memeing, or talking how they don't like an aspect of someone else's gameplay. I'd like more meaningful contribution.

Can't exactly say I didn't have this coming.

I don't think we need to keep up the emoticon debate since at this point it's clear we're not learning from it. If it helps, I was just talking about the use of them in general.

Krazy seemed pretty eager to jump on Italiano for something that seems really minor, and I also don't like how he responded to the memey part of 62 without responding to the non-memey part. Going to keep an eye on him.
As for Italiano himself, I'm kind of getting town vibes? Hard to tell though.
Kazyan looks pretty eager to hunt scum but that's probably just a playstyle thing.
Most of the others haven't really gotten my attention yet, so that's just my thoughts right now.

don't mind these takes

For example:

Random thought, but even if I'm wrong on one of them, Meuh and Harumi are never ever scum together after Meuh has committed herself to use the sunglasses emote in every post after Harumi's emotes complaint post

It could

totally

be Meuh and Harumi. Something something newbie scum like Day 1 distancing, something something WIFOM.

This, and the post before it, uh. Seems a bit odd.
The whole thing about the conspiracy seems a bit jokey but I can’t tell for sure. This post makes it seem legit though.
Speaking of which, bringing up WIFOM in this situation is counterproductive because WIFOM can explain anything.
It’d probably be better to determine which are more likely (and I doubt Krazy

literally

meant 100% certainty.)

liked this take too

This might come off as a tad evasive but it's a bit difficult to do a full iso read when five pages show up overnight

My rough readlist would have to be as follows:

{Krazy}
{Kazyan}
{alisae, cantripmancer, italiano, 2ndchosen} - I know I said I didn't like 2nd but I took another look and I've decided I might have been suffering from confirmation bias. Still a null for me though.
{Marcistar} - bit skittish and defensive which I don't like, but it's probably a playstyle thing so eh.
{meuh}

I kinda superficially don't mind this list but it is troublesome that both alisae and chosen are in the middle tier, I feel like harumi feels like she easily fits into a lot of scum worlds still

Honestly it isn't looking super good since we don't have any solid kill candidates at any point

Not much coming from me, since I made the mistake signing up for two games, and this game is very active so it's hard for me to keep up with it.

Kinda starting to loosen up on Meuh though since their latest posts seem productive, so marcistar is probably my candidate for now but that's really tentative.

VOTE: Marcistar

don't like that I don't think harumi actually expects this vote to do anything, feels empty

[Krazy]

If there's {at least} one scum in chosen/harumi this game is fine

if there is 0 scum in those two this game is hard

I'm fine with either one flipping scum, Harumi might even be scummier in some ways?

I'm still worried maybe I derailed a wagon off Harumi and chosen is a miss

idk I feel like my townie kazy has been hard death tunneling meuh all day and I really don't like meuh for a hit or at least not for a day 1 and this marci-->harumi, kazy-->meuh, krazy-->chosen dynamic has resulted in this day stalling out really hard

I probably was supposed to just compromise with marci earlier and go for harumi? idk

feel like I've played this dayphase wrong somehow... hmmmm

[Krazy]

but it's weird because I don't really feel like harumi was scummy until the second half of this dayphase

idk

probably just need a flip right or wrong somewhere

[Krazy]

sorry I'll stop spam stream of consciousnessing

chosen claim please

[Alisae]

don't like that I don't think harumi actually expects this vote to do anything, feels empty

do you think that vote actually comes from scum though?

[Krazy]

I feel good about Trip, the one concern is just how long it took him to case Italiano and the kinda slowness in moving back to pushing someone else. If he's scum I guess he's working very hard to present towniness so I appreciate that, but *often* he is just town here, and I really liked 140 still

I feel good about Kazy. 578 gave me just a moment of worry if only because it felt like a thought process he might have had as a plan if he was s/s with chosen, but I still feel like stuff like 109 just makes him feel uninformed-POV

I feel good about Italiano, posts like 600 are townie for him I think. He's not hard outside his range but he veers town right now. If he's scum he's playing good.

If I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll talk more about Meuh.

I mostly like Marci, but the way she's responded to the Chosen wagon gives me pause. Makes me reluctant to give her an EoD hard town.

I still liked the chosen post from eth0s, although eth0s's vote logic was kinda not vibing with my reads. Some of Alisae's posts have bothered me, the readslist and actually the "WHAT NANCY?" stuff which felt weirdly performative. Alisae is a slot I leave to day 2 though, right or wrong.

I liked Harumi toward the start of game and have liked her less as the day has worn on and she hasn't really picked up her content output.

I actually don't hate chosen's reads but the lack of any push behind his reads or any solving content makes it hard to know what to do with his reads. He feels super disengaged. I think if he is town, then if he'd ever voted anyone else this game I could have eventually found him town, but voteparking me literally all of day 1 is just a great way to make me uninterested in seeing you alive on day 2.

I think that's basically ordered. This does not feel like a game where I'm shooting 50%+ though, ngl.

[Krazy]

don't like that I don't think harumi actually expects this vote to do anything, feels empty

do you think that vote actually comes from scum though?

it's just hard for me to see such an empty push coming from town but it could go either way I suppose

like if you're town starting a vanity wagon with under 72 hours left, don't you like, give some impression you care about the vote?

[Alisae]

Because the reason why I decided to go chosen > harumi today isn't just because of chosen's reads, that's kind of half of it.
I don't know why Harumi would place that vote on marci as scum? the only thing I can think of is that they don't want to bus for some reason but bussing here I think wouldn't be terrible for them?
If chosen is town and Harumi is scum the only reason I can think of her moving to marci is for towncred because they know that their vote isn't required to kill chosen. Maybe they have this foresight but I'm not sure.

If Harumi is scum with chosen, then I don't think bussing is that bad for Harumi and can actually make her look kind of good? I don't think if the team is {Harumi, Chosen}, Harumi can justify not bussing unless their goal was to try to get a no elim, which the village should be taking as much steps as possible to secure an elim, so that seems unrealistic. I don't think Harumi can get any other reasonable cw going.

I just feel like it makes more sense to put Harumi as town for the marci vote? I can't figure out why scum place that vote on Marci at that time.

[Krazy]

I don't know why Harumi would place that vote on marci as scum?

I feel like "would they do x as scum" is always the wrong question, it's "do they do x as town"

Not understanding the specific reason Harumi does something as scum doesn't bother me for her being scum, what bothers me is not understanding why she's doing that thing as town

[Alisae]

Its actually really weird that you started to dislike Harumi's later posts but I started to like Harumi's later posts.
I can't identify what that player is doing if they're scum because their latest play seems pretty agendaless?

Either way I feel like chosen is the better flip here.

[Krazy]

the more you talk the more I think my guttake from your readslist was right that harumi/alisae is a solid solve but that I need to flip chosen because he refuses to actually use his vote on scum

that's probably cold but I still think it's right to take the claim from chosen at this point simply so I know whether I have to solve for that world or not

your argument for townreading harumi off that vote is very scummy

[Alisae]

Krazy if you really want to go Harumi instead and pull my leg I'll cooperate.
I'd rather cooperate with you and try to work with you as much as possible over try to pick a fight with you.

[Alisae]

Also our interests are mostly the same so its fine.

[Meuh]

Alright Marci read time

I've played an online mafia game with Marci where she was mafia before, and from what I can gather from that game (and to some degree from her town games too), Marci is the type of player who would try very hard to keep their partner or herself alive. Marci in those games seemed to view short term gain (mafia with more numbers) as more valuable than long term gain (mafia members not associating, keeping the mafia townread). In the game, she almost got eliminated, but survived to the end of the day by fakeclaiming a PR role. That fakeclaim, while it allowed for a miselim, left the mafia a lot more obvious, and we were elimed on the next few days.(

That loss was also partly my fault but that's besides the point

So what does this mean? I think it means Marci would be reluctant to push for her partner if it put her at any serious risk which is why I think Harumi/Marci is pretty unlikely. Also I think that Marci might try to push to save her partner, even to a point where it might be obviously scummy like she could be doing here, protecting 2nd. If 2nd is elimed and flips scum, I think there's a lot to look into with Marci.

I'm pretty conflicted on Marci honestly, the general vibes are townlike, but the whole reaction to 2nd is just... off, it's weird. It feels like she's both distancing from 2nd and also pushing hard to get votes off of him, and those 2 things feel conflicting.

Marci you better not be scum I wanted us to carry

[Krazy]

eh our fight never makes this dayphase not ending in either harumi or chosen

no matter how much I scumread you right now, I would never day 1 you here

I don't think me having you in PoE needs to be toxic either, you can just be "possible scum" day 1 and then I get to play "would alisae bus [x] buddy d1"?

I would ALMOST take a claim from harumi too, but I have Meuh and Italiano on Chosen and I don't have them on Harumi right now so Chosen is the slot that *should* claim here, despite the fact that I think almost all of us *would* vote Harumi too.

pedit: meuh does that sound about right to you?

[Meuh]

I think it means Marci would be reluctant to push for her partner if it put her at any serious risk

Oops worded that poorly and didn't notice, I meant she would be reluctant to push on her partner if it put

her partner

(or the mafia team in general) at any serious risk of being elimed

[Meuh]

eh our fight never makes this dayphase not ending in either harumi or chosen

no matter how much I scumread you right now, I would never day 1 you here

I don't think me having you in PoE needs to be toxic either, you can just be "possible scum" day 1 and then I get to play "would alisae bus [x] buddy d1"?

I would ALMOST take a claim from harumi too, but I have Meuh and Italiano on Chosen and I don't have them on Harumi right now so Chosen is the slot that *should* claim here, despite the fact that I think almost all of us *would* vote Harumi too.

pedit: meuh does that sound about right to you?

Harumi would probably be the second best push for me yeah, although I agree that 2nd should be the one to claim here. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Harumi was scum and 2nd wasn't, but I feel generally more confident in my 2nd read. Regardless, I'd love more activity from Harumi, cause they aren't really helping us progress atm...

[Alisae]

Krazy I can't wait for you to get shot and then have to deal with everyone pointing at me and saying "ya, this player kills Krazy"

[Alisae]

if any protectives exist please just protect Krazy, don't do anything fancy.
It's just so much better if scum are not allowed to kill Krazy and they're forced to go somewhere else.

[2ndchosen1]

not claiming

I actually don't hate chosen's reads but the lack of any push behind his reads or any solving content makes it hard to know what to do with his reads. He feels super disengaged. I think if he is town, then if he'd ever voted anyone else this game I could have eventually found him town, but voteparking me literally all of day 1 is just a great way to make me uninterested in seeing you alive on day 2.

My vote's on you still because you're the one I'm flip flopping on most actually. and my wagon seems enough influence

I have a tendency to use hyperbole and confidence regarding reads.

This does not feel like a game where I'm shooting 50%+ though, ngl.

what happened to your self proclaimed confidence? clearly, you have scum in your hands all you need do is hit the hammer. You've known since my first post near page 6.

I put up that shitty barebones thing to respond to ali and your main gripe is that is I didn't unvote you?
You at least ask some decent questions and are at least willing to put your neck out but I also know leading a wagon D1 and being first in line is a very safe and desirable position for scum be in, I should know.
How do you read your fellow wagoneers? specifically Cantrip and IVD. I'd like to hear your current thoughts on them

I'm curious about the kazy trajectory here as well as the 'sing town" and "scream town" statements which feel a little weird

I used that to express how much something leans to me actually, singing being "soft" and screaming being "harder". That is a neat thing about my language I wasn't even thinking of at the time. ty for pointing it out, I find it amusing.

Kazy pointed at meuh who has done things I did as scum in my last game and is solidly reading her as such. I'm not sure if this was a slight meta attempt to get me to jump to the Meuh wagon at the time, and I do see Kazyan as smart enough to do something like that. There are enough differences between Voice talk and Forum talk that I've not got a full grasp on him here.