TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Almost50]

so i discussed this with Hectic (and arguably Flopz) and they agreed it's worth outing it

i was targetted by a Neapolitan. we're leaning towards it being a scum backup neapolitan (or backup of first announcing to die if A50 is town as well also makes sense?)

Today's opening post was supposed to be similar to yesterday's, but I changed my mind and didn't post it.

The one relevant bit is

Hopkirk, Has been unispiring all game long and I do think Town!Hopkirk would have town-told already. Either this or AGar (or both) are 100% Scum

AGar, The more I see from him the more I am convinced he is Scum. And to think I had him in my semi-confident TRs makes me blush in shame (It's also one of the main reasons I am second guessing myself on most slots, because I had built my world about him being Town before. Also check the read on Hopkirk

The above are the bottom 2 entries on my bread list, but now I don't think Scum!Hopkirk comes up with this Announcing Neapolitan as a Scum gambit. It thus follows that my solve is now reduced to exactly 3: AGar, jjh & Bell (but tbh I am still not 100% on Bell, so would rather vote one of the other two)

P.S. I am already voting jjh, but I can switch to AGar if that wagon gets closer to lim.

[Almost50]

that's interesting. i'm not going to dismiss it as scum out of hand but it's a little suspicious yeah.

WAIT! It was Dann who flipped Nea, wasn't it? Hmmm.

[Almost50]

Universal backup is a thing

Yeah. I guess I'm leaning TOWN on whoever the Nea is now. I dunno how that affects my read on Hopkirk anymore.

[Almost50]

I wash I didn't open my big mouth before I read more, but that's how I play and it's never gonna change I guess.

OK.. one Scum in Hop/AGar (pet theory it's Hop now. Explanation to follow)
Also Titus is now reduced to a Town Lean that can only get back to a full TR level if jjh is Scum. Otherwise Titus might actually be Scum.
I am ALSO having second thoughts on mastina, but I don't think mastina &b Titus are Scum together.

My theory has to do with bpth Hop & Titus actually claiming they were visited by the respective roles they were visited by. I don't see the benefit to Town in outing those roles in publich (neither to Town or even Scum) so I think it may have been done for Town!cred.

Counterpoint (to my own theory): Why wouldn't Titus/Hop consider the possibility of a Disloyal Modifier? It'd be suicide to claim you were notified X visited you when X is DISloyal. X doesn't even need to out that they're actually Disloyal on the spot, and continue to play nornally. If they ever flip the Modifier is going to get exposed anyway, and if they live long enough they can out with potentially 2-3 guilties.

Shit, I've even managed to confuse MYSELF on this one.

[Almost50]

one deepwolf is possible, i don't see myself locktowning two scum

I mean, if you were actually town you'd reconsider that your reads have been absolute shit this game, but you're not so.

OK, I'll bite (but only because I need to get to the bottom of this today. It's time to solve this game properly). So, which of Mastina/IV/Xtoxm/Ceph do you SR? Hop had 6 people in his Townblock. Luca flipped read and Dunn flipped green already. these are the living 4. Which of them is Scum to you, and why?

[Almost50]

i'm 3/4 right on flipped town and 0/1 on flipped scum, my reads aren't shit

Looks like I'm in the mood to antagonize BOTH of you at once.

If I stated a TR on ALL 17 other slots I'd be 13//17 on my TRs by the end of the game. That would be 1.46% better than your 3/4.

Now if I stated a SR on all 17 I'd still be 4/17 by the end of the game, which is 23.5% better than your 0/1.

Now what is your argument again?

[Almost50]

3/4 = 75%
14/18 = 77.8%

0/1 = 0%
4/14 = 22.2%

Close, but you're neglecting he knows his own alignment, so assuming he is Town the base is 17 (and if he's Scum he already knows)

[Bell]

I would like to solve the Puzzle.

It's Hopkirk, Mastina, Luca Blight and Ythan.

*Gets chair and waits for Almost50 to make a video where someone spins the wheel and goes bankrupt*

I'm wiggling on all of those tho.
Also, full solves
Not my strong suit.

[Almost50]

if A50 is town it makes a lot more sense for it to be an announcer backup role

Why? (Serious question. I don't get why it makes more sense for it to be an announcer backup role)

I would also like to introduce a third -unlikely- possibility: Back Neapolitan. Since the Nea was gated it makes sense to try and give the Town a chance to use at least 2 shots.

[Almost50]

@Bell, I'll get back to you when I get there

[Almost50]

we actually have enough time to elim everyone i want to elim provided enough of those are hits that the game doesnt end

Your PoE isn't good enough, mate. You don't think you're correct on almost everyone, do you? If not, then we need to lim in the slots that are not only potentially Scum, but also the ones that will almost confirm a townie if we get a red flip.

Now, while I disagree on principle with your read on Winter, I also want to ask: Who gets to be unquestionably Town -to you- if Winter flips red? And who gets to be "most likely Scum" if he flips green?

I personally want to resolve the AGar/Hopkirk thing (because it's blatantly obvious they are not Scum together), or the jjh/Titus (which I low-key think can't be Scum together either).

[jjh927]

What's the jjh/Titus thing?

[Almost50]

not saying ur garbage

Why not??

[Cephrir]

The above are the bottom 2 entries on my bread list, but now I don't think Scum!Hopkirk comes up with this Announcing Neapolitan as a Scum gambit. It thus follows that my solve is now reduced to exactly 3: AGar, jjh & Bell (but tbh I am still not 100% on Bell, so would rather vote one of the other two)

I don't think it's a scum gambit either, but how does that make hopkirk town? He could just be telling the truth. if the neapolitan had an innocent on him that would be a different story.

[Cephrir]

Your PoE isn't good enough, mate. You don't think you're correct on almost everyone, do you?

Of course not.

If not, then we need to lim in the slots that are not only potentially Scum, but also the ones that will almost confirm a townie if we get a red flip.

I don't necessarily subscribe to this philosophy.

Now, while I disagree on principle with your read on Winter, I also want to ask: Who gets to be unquestionably Town -to you- if Winter flips red? And who gets to be "most likely Scum" if he flips green?

It's a low-info play, I'll give you that, but I'm not about to sit here and do unflipped associatives - it's just not a good use of my time and I never do it. I'll try to arrive at those conclusions once I see which world we're actually living in.

I personally want to resolve the AGar/Hopkirk thing (because it's blatantly obvious they are not Scum together), or the jjh/Titus (which I low-key think can't be Scum together either).

I'm not bothered by this because I've already concluded that agar is town.

[Almost50]

i think the core is good for different reasons
i can be wrong on one, that's a deepwolf
being wrong on one doesn't mitigate the valid reasons for each

I'll concede that since it was T v T by the end of the day that a second scum on LLD is less probable than one on DGB. I'd say 1.333 on each wagon and 1.333 off both wagons (that's to say, 1 on LLD, 1 on DGB, 1 on neither, and 1 "dice roll" (probably not voting.. if any))

[jjh927]

The above are the bottom 2 entries on my bread list, but now I don't think Scum!Hopkirk comes up with this Announcing Neapolitan as a Scum gambit. It thus follows that my solve is now reduced to exactly 3: AGar, jjh & Bell (but tbh I am still not 100% on Bell, so would rather vote one of the other two)

I don't think it's a scum gambit either, but how does that make hopkirk town? He could just be telling the truth. if the neapolitan had an innocent on him that would be a different story.

Life would definitely be a lot easier if the neapolitan had an innocent on him

[Almost50]

I would like to solve the Puzzle.

It's Hopkirk, Mastina, Luca Blight and Ythan.

*Gets chair and waits for Almost50 to make a video where someone spins the wheel and goes bankrupt*

I'm wiggling on all of those tho.
Also, full solves
Not my strong suit.

It may help if you provided some details as to why these 4 (or rather, why the living 3 of them)

Also remind me, but weren't you leaning Ythan Town after I faked a guilty on him yesterday? What changed your mind?

[Almost50]

What's the jjh/Titus thing?

She's pushing you hard enough that I don't think you two are Scum together.

[Almost50]

The above are the bottom 2 entries on my bread list, but now I don't think Scum!Hopkirk comes up with this Announcing Neapolitan as a Scum gambit. It thus follows that my solve is now reduced to exactly 3: AGar, jjh & Bell (but tbh I am still not 100% on Bell, so would rather vote one of the other two)

I don't think it's a scum gambit either, but how does that make hopkirk town? He could just be telling the truth. if the neapolitan had an innocent on him that would be a different story.

Yes. I did acknowledge I spoke too fast soon after. Apologies.

[jjh927]

What's the jjh/Titus thing?

She's pushing you hard enough that I don't think you two are Scum together.

Is Titus pushing me now?

[Almost50]

I'm not bothered by this because I've already concluded that agar is town.

Why? I want to be convinced too.

[Almost50]

Is Titus pushing me now?

Last I checked.. yes.

Jjh iv ythan are the suspects I want to flip today right now. It's unlikely they are all scum together. Bell is a decent compromise.

[jjh927]

That is a single post

[Xtoxm]

I personally want to resolve the AGar/Hopkirk thing (because it's blatantly obvious they are not Scum together), or the jjh/Titus (which I low-key think can't be Scum together either).

does the uni backup need to claim before you back off from this?
why are you pushing an openly pro-scum agenda?
dann's role was 3 shot.
2 have been used.
one left.
backup neap claims results tomorrow.
one of them is on hop.
hop is mechanically untouchable today.