TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[mastina]

when mastina says “AGar is an infinitesimally better elim than jjh” does she mean way better or barely better

Way better, infinitely better.

jjh is guaranteed town here.

AGar isn't guaranteed scum but has a minimum of a 75% chance of flipping scum here. While he's my weakest scumread, he's in the POE, he IS a scumread, there's zero votes on either of my two stronger scumreads, and he's a significantly better wagon than jjh.

mastina I am gonna want to see some thoughts about the jjh wagon when you have time if you haven’t already given thme

I recognize that players have, fairly valid, suspicions on jjh being scum. While there's definitely possible-scum among them, not everyone pushing him is scum. Players like Almost50 in fact are definitely town, whose thoughts and solve outside of jjh are, largely, in the right direction. (Of them, probably the most wrong yet still town is Cephrir.)

However, while I get that they're suspicious of jjh--they're just wrong because I guarantee you that jjh is town here. I realize my word doesn't mean that much, but I guarantee it's accurate. Whether people like it or not or trust it or not is irrelevant; the fact is I AM right here, guaranteed, and the people who think otherwise will feel dumb when they realize that I was right on something they were totally wrong on.

specifically reasons on town him lol bc again no one has been able to provide

jjh dropped a surefire 100% towntell that guarantees he is town this game. But I admit: without explaining the tell, I'm not sure how to convince others that he is town. In order to explain why he's town I'd have to out the tell, but I don't want to because if I did he'd be the guaranteed nightkill tonight. (The tell is that strong.)

[OkaPoka]

are you softing?

[Bell]

are you softing?

Why would you ask this?

[OkaPoka]

I have my reasons

[mastina]

(it's a highly opportunistic vote and I caught her dead to rights for the opportunism because jjh thing, though it sounds good, is a lie if you think for more than a minute about it)

Ah yes opportunism on a scumread I've had since basically the beginning of D2 and have said was a scumread, a rather significantly strong one, for the entirety of that time.

Look at the gamestate when mastina voted AGar. AGar was at 4 votes and jjh was at 2, except AGar was also a building wagon and jjh had you expressing uncertainty.

So what mastina is basically saying is she wants to vote her third scumread rather than pushing me or bell because she is scared of jjh being eliminated?

Because,
1: a jjh elimination is THAT bad for the town,
2: AGar is a building wagon--and AGar is a scumread of mine,
3: There were no votes for either OkaPoka or Bell,
4: Pushing OkaPoka or Bell risks dividing wagons on scum--if town is divided in half with two wagons on scum and scum (with wrong town) unite on a wagon on town, then the risk of a town elimination skyrockets because the town is split in spite of being right on both its pushes.

Why

wouldn't

I vote AGar?

I voted Bell instead of you because at the time there was interest in voting Bell and a wagon on Bell. Yet you were a stronger scumread of mine. The same reason I didn't vote you is the same reason I voted AGar: because contrary to popular opinion of me, I DO compromise,

especially

when the compromise is basically not even a compromise because to reiterate, AGar's not a townread that I'm willing to vote (compromise); AGar's not a nullread that I'm willing to vote (compromise); AGar's a scumread that I'm willing to vote (not a true compromise even if there's two votes I'd rather make more than AGar).

[OkaPoka]

could've said that when you voted agar but you didn't, you chose to make it about saving jjh which i showed that is just not an actual thought process. making this about building up an agar wagon because you can't do me or bell is something you've pivoted to so you can win this argument. but if you believed that when you voted agar, you would've said it

[mastina]

then you say that and not some bs about jjh

I say both because both apply.

I said that my preference was Oka > Bell > Agar > WinterFlakes.
I said that an AGar wagon is better than a jjh wagon.

The two are not mutually exclusive; they explicitly build off of each other.

I am willing to vote AGar specifically because there is a wagon there and he is a scumread of mine, even if he's not my first or even my second choice. So I vote there but note exactly this, that he's my third choice rather than my first/second.
I am willing to vote AGar specifically to save jjh because jjh is town. So I vote there and note exactly this.

[Bell]

You’re afraid of splitting wagons on scum.
Really?

[OkaPoka]

you aren't saving jjh because jjh isn't/wasn't actually competing against agar, nothing is competing against agar. i think everyone in the plist understands that now

[OkaPoka]

but also whatever, are you softing jjh is town? its the only way your play makes sense

[mastina]

If I have three scumreads but there's a wagon on the third-strongest and absolutely zero votes on either my strongest OR second-strongest scumreads.

Why wouldn't I vote for the third-strongest scumread? It's still a scumread. It's not as confident of a scumread. It's not as assured of a scumread. It's a scumread with a higher chance of being wrong. But it's still a scumread, but just a weaker one.

this is the 'legitimate' reason for voting agar
but you didn't mention it, you chose to mention

I'd actually prefer OkaPoka > Bell > AGar > WinterFlakes

so AGar's not my first choice, but he's infinitesimally a better elimination than jjh and

has a high chance of flipping scum

, soooooooo.

I did mention it--the bolded is saying exactly that.

There are three scum in the game.

Voting my third-strongest scumread when there are three scum in the game means...
...Exactly what I said. If I have three scumreads, but no votes on the first or second, that I am willing to join the wagon on the third because they are still a scumread.

AGar is my third preference, not my first.
There's still three scum in the game though.
And AGar has a high chance of flipping scum--not the highest (that's explicitly you, OkaPoka), not the second-highest (that'd be Bell), but still a HIGH chance of flipping scum.

I was V/LA, distracted, in a rush, which I also said. So sure, I could have elaborated on it more ideally, but the intention is there pretty damn clearly and unambiguously and I can prove it, too--because literally the entirety of my iso will back me up in me having precisely that stance. This isn't some sudden out of left-field curve from me where I suddenly shifted my reads or stance; this is a position I've held for the entirety of D3 and partially before then, too.

[OkaPoka]

If I have three scumreads but there's a wagon on the third-strongest and absolutely zero votes on either my strongest OR second-strongest scumreads.

Why wouldn't I vote for the third-strongest scumread? It's still a scumread. It's not as confident of a scumread. It's not as assured of a scumread. It's a scumread with a higher chance of being wrong. But it's still a scumread, but just a weaker one.

this is the 'legitimate' reason for voting agar
but you didn't mention it, you chose to mention

I'd actually prefer OkaPoka > Bell > AGar > WinterFlakes

so AGar's not my first choice, but he's infinitesimally a better elimination than jjh and

has a high chance of flipping scum

, soooooooo.

I did mention it--the bolded is saying exactly that.

There are three scum in the game.

Voting my third-strongest scumread when there are three scum in the game means...
...Exactly what I said. If I have three scumreads, but no votes on the first or second, that I am willing to join the wagon on the third because they are still a scumread.

AGar is my third preference, not my first.
There's still three scum in the game though.
And AGar has a high chance of flipping scum--not the highest (that's explicitly you, OkaPoka), not the second-highest (that'd be Bell), but still a HIGH chance of flipping scum.

I was V/LA, distracted, in a rush, which I also said. So sure, I could have elaborated on it more ideally, but the intention is there pretty damn clearly and unambiguously and I can prove it, too--because literally the entirety of my iso will back me up in me having precisely that stance. This isn't some sudden out of left-field curve from me where I suddenly shifted my reads or stance; this is a position I've held for the entirety of D3 and partially before then, too.

no its very clear what you meant. you meant you voted agar to save jjh. that's literally it. you added all this extra stuff now to make your argument more feasible.

[OkaPoka]

in fact if you naked voted agar the conclusion would honestly be closer to the obvious one: being that agar was a scumread with an existing wagon

but you had to do what you love to do and throw in extra clarification, made up something about jjh and then left the thread. now that the jjh argument is being undermined, you've gone back and were like oh yeah let me add the actually good arguments now.

[mastina]

are you softing?

could've said that when you voted agar but you didn't

Fair warning: will be fairly V/LA due to lifeguard training stuff.

Can post right now tho, so...

This in of itself is plenty a rebuttal.

When I am V/LA I damn well reserve the right to, in my distracted, busy, limited-time self, not be as clear and coherent as is ideal. The fact that I've been defending jjh and that AGar has been a scumread of mine since the beginning of D2 and that AGar has, consistently, been #3 on my scumread list since D2, speaks for itself in backing me up in this not being an explanation I'm bullshitting after the fact.

Or do you wanna have me quote everything I've said on jjh and AGar to prove it?

Like I said. This isn't coming out of left-field as some sudden reversal in stance, some sudden shift that is poorly explained. I have literally the entire game's worth of an iso showing this stance, backing up exactly what I said:
AGar isn't my first preference, he is my third. However, he still has a high chance of flipping scum. He is also a much better wagon than jjh because jjh is guaranteed to be town. None of those positions were new to 4868 and the posts after; they have existed in ALL of my posting since D2.

[OkaPoka]

Here's what actually happened: you saw agar had a bunch of votes and you were alone and wanted agar flipped. So you voted agar and were like, I can't just vote agar, I'm mastina, I gotta have an explanation for everything.

And you just scanned the vc and were like well jjh has some votes let me throw something about jjh in there, make my vote more interesting and nuanced by putting agar at third, alright good to go.

And then now that you are being called out, you've gone back to the drawing board and are adding actually good arguments, I can't dispute the good arguments, what I can say is if you thought of these ideas, you would've said it initially.

[OkaPoka]

its not even about coherency, it is absolutely crystal what you meant when you voted agar. you've changed the argument.

[OkaPoka]

maybe change is too broad, you've shifted the emphasis. everyone damn well knows what your agar vote was about.

[Bell]

Are you reading her arguments.

How exactly are they good arguments?
Her read on JJH is purely a meta read. That she is 100% confident in, for no stated reason beyond he just is.
Her justification for voting her third strongest scum read is that she didn’t want to split wagons on scum.

[OkaPoka]

they are 'good' arguments now in that they are more congruent with her actions. she's on the defense and arguing why her actions are congruent with her thoughts.

[Bell]

And momentum on Agar was going when her two preferred didn’t have any momentum and instead of wondering why that may be, she just voted the third guy who could very well have a bunch of scum on his wagon. There’s like, no suspicion or critical examination.

[mastina]

You’re afraid of splitting wagons on scum. Really?

In this very specific instance where there's a wagon on jjh, more or less, yes. (Because a jjh wagon is that bad.) Splitting votes between scumA and scumB but there's a wagon on jjh, if neither the town on scumA want to move to scumB nor the town on scumB want to move to scumA, then the wagon on jjh remains and gains momentum. In this very specific instance, that's very bad.

If there were three wagons and they were {AGar, Bell, Winter Flakes}, splitting the wagons wouldn't be a problem to me at all.

And in most situations, generically speaking, two wagons on two different scum is nothing but good. If the elimination choice is between scumA and scumB, town wins regardless of which is eliminated. But if the elimination choice is between scumA, scumB, and conftown, town only wins if the conftown wagon dies out, which scum have every incentive to try and avoid and in this instance they have a fairly strong success rate.

I, the one defending the conftown, don't have any real pull this game. The conftown is being suspected by multiple town players, each with strong personalities and most of them having at least some pull.

Since I lack the pull to dismantle the wagon on the conftown, as the only person who was on scumB(ell), I shift to scumA(gar), so that the town has greater unity. If the elimination choice is between scumA and conftown, then weakening the wagon on conftown and strengthening the wagon on scumA is the best move.

but also whatever, are you softing jjh is town?

jjh is town, yes.

[OkaPoka]

jjh is town like hercule was town and xtoxm was town and abr was town or jjh is town because implosion told you.

[Bell]

Okay. My vote on mastina is fixed. She’s a snake salesmen.

[Bell]

That is to say, she sells snake oil and is not actually a snake.

[jjh927]

Everything Mastina is saying right now resonates pretty strongly with me

As an aside, I have said it before but her scumgame at the moment really doesn't look like this