Micro 998 | The Binding of Isaac Mafia | Game Over


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Post Post #925 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:14 am

Post by madeline »

In post 923, Costello wrote:
In post 921, madeline wrote:and if flea dies the night fae is investigated?
That is okay and still functionally serves its purpose. The nightkill in this case is functionally a town-driven elim.

I would even say this is expected if we choose to investigate Flea as I am not 100% mechanically clear, and neither is Hectic.
In post 924, Flea The Magician wrote:then I'm clear regardless and scum are going to take someone out regardless.

Short of throwing, I'm confident town wins.
i feel like i have to be missing something

the plan seems to be

if hectic or costello are mafia, town loses
if farkran or bugspray are mafia, flip a coin for who wins
hope ydrasse or flea are mafia, to avoid the other options

and this is a plan people are like, 'yeah this is good' about
something is not right
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Post Post #926 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:16 am

Post by Costello »

To more directly answer your question regarding holes: Unless Farkran is both town and gets a guilty overnight, we should not expect a mechanical solution to the game.

There are many mechanical possibilities but only two are unambiguous: A hypothetical Day 3 Farkran guilty (He can't 1v1 w/ a miselim) or Flea mechanical clear.

There are interesting side questions like "Will bugspray die N4 or N5? What does Hectic's Body do?"
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Post Post #927 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:20 am

Post by Farkran »

The problem about mechsolving is that once it becomes an option, people stop thinking and wait for things to happen

When in actuality mechsolving shouldn't be a mutually exclusive solution against reads and that's why we should be starting to form wagons

The candidates today are flea and ydrasse, vote one or change my mind
Farkran is back poggers
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Post Post #928 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:20 am

Post by Costello »

In post 925, madeline wrote:if hectic or costello are mafia, town loses
if farkran or bugspray are mafia, flip a coin for who wins
hope ydrasse or flea are mafia, to avoid the other options

and this is a plan people are like, 'yeah this is good' about
Can you suggest an alternative? It's not that we think this plan is foolproof: It's absolutely not, and this is why I've put a heavier emphasis on qualitative play.

We have 3 guesses for the mafia in 7 players. With 0 mech info, this nets us a 77.2% chance of winning the game w/ random selections.

The plan here actually nets 4 guesses by maximizing how we utilize Farkran's claimed power.
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Post Post #929 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:21 am

Post by Not Chara »

Votecount 2.5


Flea The Magician (2)
: Ydrasse, Farkran
Ydrasse (1)
: Flea The Magician
Hectic (1)
: bugspray
Farkran (0)
:
Costello (0)
:
madeline (0)
:
bugspray (0)
:

Not Voting:
madeline, Hectic, Costello


With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to reach an elimination.

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2021-03-07 20:34:25).
Last edited by Not Chara on Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #930 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:22 am

Post by Costello »

In post 929, Not Chara wrote:mine
stupid seagull at it again
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Post Post #931 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:33 am

Post by madeline »

In post 928, Costello wrote:Can you suggest an alternative?
weighted randomization seems more optimal
In post 927, Farkran wrote:The problem about mechsolving is that once it becomes an option, people stop thinking and wait for things to happen

When in actuality mechsolving shouldn't be a mutually exclusive solution against reads and that's why we should be starting to form wagons
yeah maybe it's just this
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Post Post #932 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:34 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

its by no means a perfect plan... but it will eliminate the bulk of the unknowns and clear at least 1 other.
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Post Post #933 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:41 am

Post by Costello »

IDK what I'm smoking but I miscalculated, our chance of winning with no mechanical info is 55%.

Under our current plan (Policyvote Farkran in 3 way after Flea investigation N2) I'm pretty sure it's 61%.

Both of these assume Fark/Flea each have a 1/7 chance of being scum.

So honestly pretty negligible.
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Post Post #934 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:43 am

Post by Costello »

Man this is still wrong and is what I get for not working it out on paper but I'm lazy
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Post Post #935 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:44 am

Post by madeline »

In post 933, Costello wrote:Under our current plan (Policyvote Farkran in 3 way after Flea investigation N2) I'm pretty sure it's 61%.
if you factor in policyvoting farkran in f3 this plan is nearly identical to 'assume costello, hectic and bugspray are town'
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Post Post #936 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:48 am

Post by Costello »

I mean, technically you have the flexibility to vote us out either today or tomorrow, but functionally they're equivalent, you're right.

I'm going to stop EV punching until I get off work and use real scratch paper because spitballing into Google Calculator without tracking what I'm doing does not work well.
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Post Post #937 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:49 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
MadelineTown Azazel
Claimed in PT
Can investigate roles in PT.
PT with Flea
X
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/
Flea The Magician???
(Blue Baby)
Forget-me-now | The PoopForget-me-now closes PT, The Poop gives someone poop.X
BugsprayMagdaleneCeltic CrossBodyguard, N1 Costello
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


X = Fully confirmed
/ = Partially Confirmed.
As it stands, we're at this.

I get eliminated, ydrasse is investigated and returns no PT. Assume Farkran is targetted but protected by bugspray.

Spoiler: Tomorrow
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
MadelineTown Azazel
Claimed in PT
Can investigate roles in PT.
PT with Flea
X
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/X
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


Elim Pool becomes Costello or Madeline. Assume Madeline is eliminated, Farkran HAS TO BE TAKEN OUT otherwise it's him.

Spoiler: ELO
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/X
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


Oh look, its Costello, gg town.

Some variations apply, and it assumes Bugspray will always protect Farkran and MegaSanta's laser always goes for Farkran
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Post Post #938 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:49 am

Post by Costello »

And also while I have gotten sidetracked in the hypothetical........I've been focusing on qualitative work for a reason, we should expect no mechanical solution with what is on the table.
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Post Post #939 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:52 am

Post by madeline »

In post 937, Flea The Magician wrote:
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
MadelineTown Azazel
Claimed in PT
Can investigate roles in PT.
PT with Flea
X
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/
Flea The Magician???
(Blue Baby)
Forget-me-now | The PoopForget-me-now closes PT, The Poop gives someone poop.X
BugsprayMagdaleneCeltic CrossBodyguard, N1 Costello
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


X = Fully confirmed
/ = Partially Confirmed.
As it stands, we're at this.

I get eliminated, ydrasse is investigated and returns no PT. Assume Farkran is targetted but protected by bugspray.

Spoiler: Tomorrow
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
MadelineTown Azazel
Claimed in PT
Can investigate roles in PT.
PT with Flea
X
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/X
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


Elim Pool becomes Costello or Madeline. Assume Madeline is eliminated, Farkran HAS TO BE TAKEN OUT otherwise it's him.

Spoiler: ELO
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/X
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


Oh look, its Costello, gg town.

Some variations apply, and it assumes Bugspray will always protect Farkran and MegaSanta's laser always goes for Farkran
if we make these assumptions and tell the mafia the plan...
how is it ever going to work out this way
something is not right
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Post Post #940 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:52 am

Post by Costello »

The issue with 937 is scum don't target Fark/bugspray N2. The only scum player who does this is you (Flea) to try and avoid mech autoloss, anyone else shoots me/Hectic/Flea.
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Post Post #941 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:53 am

Post by madeline »

In post 938, Costello wrote:And also while I have gotten sidetracked in the hypothetical........I've been focusing on qualitative work for a reason, we should expect no mechanical solution with what is on the table.
yesyes i get it i should be doing this instead of whatever i'm typing just hasn't made sense to me
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Post Post #942 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:54 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

Doesnt matter.

Mafia either holsters and gives Farkran more time, if bugspray doesn't protect its pretty much a scumclaim. If Farkran sees ELO he should be in there with players hes cleared.
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Post Post #943 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:55 am

Post by Costello »

In post 939, madeline wrote:if we make these assumptions and tell the mafia the plan...
how is it ever going to work out this way
I mean there is an issue with it, as described above, but letting scum know the mechanical plan negates nothing.
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Post Post #944 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:57 am

Post by Costello »

In post 942, Flea The Magician wrote:Doesnt matter.

Mafia either holsters and gives Farkran more time, if bugspray doesn't protect its pretty much a scumclaim. If Farkran sees ELO he should be in there with players hes cleared.
I would encourage you to work this out on paper and see the result of "giving Farkran more time", assuming that you policyvote him in Elo.
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Post Post #945 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:59 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

Lets go again. using who I'd shoot avoiding Farkran and Bugspray.

Spoiler: Tomorrow
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
CostelloEveDead Bird1 Shot Elimination Redirector - Used D1X/
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
YdrasseThe LostHoly MantleCan check 1 dead body per day to see what they could do/X
BugsprayMagdaleneCeltic CrossBodyguard, N1 Costello
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


X = Fully confirmed
/ = Partially Confirmed.


Oh well then, guess its time to yeet Costello or Bugspray. Bugspray is a protective apparently. Lets yeet Costello. Big orbs aint big enough.

Spoiler: ELO
Claims wrote:
PlayerPostCharacterItem(s)InfoMech ConfirmedMech Clear
FarkranJudasBook of BelialPT Cop, Hectic clear. Closes PT during the day with charge, gains charge from successful checkXX
BugsprayMagdaleneCeltic CrossBodyguard, N1 Costello
HecticThe ForgottenDivorce PapersBody Swap - Soul self watches [public], bone public alignment reveal? Unaware of role actions./X


X = Fully confirmed
/ = Partially Confirmed.

Welp, GG Bugspray, who should have a guilty returned on them.
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Post Post #946 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:00 am

Post by madeline »

In post 945, Flea The Magician wrote:Welp, GG Bugspray, who should have a guilty returned on them.
why's farkran town here?
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Post Post #947 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:01 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

That is a bit of a chance for Farkran to win as scum, but lets face it that means the dude has some SERIOUS orbs from his play in this game.
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Post Post #948 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:04 am

Post by Costello »

There are extremely glaring issues with this but I'm kind of tired of running mechanical circles at the moment.
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Post Post #949 (ISO) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:04 am

Post by madeline »

In post 925, madeline wrote:if farkran or bugspray are mafia, flip a coin for who wins
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