Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[AliceK]

i will yeet:
mini > clidd > gerain

Not me anymore?

[Featherless Biped]

i will yeet:
mini > clidd > gerain

why the clidd SR?

[Featherless Biped]

Spoiler:

So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

as no one seems to have bothered to tell u, reflexive / PGO can't be in normal games (yeah i know nitpicky, whatever)

not sure i really agree with the other reasons, scum can always go "oops, all NK bait" and i doubt many peoples would question

[HypoSoc]

Feh, are all these slot replacements normal?

I'm just generally annoyed by all the player swapping, and keeping track of who claimed what, and who practically admitted to being mason with whom. Forty pages of day one... it feels kind of miserable, and actively counter productive.

Are we settling on anyone at all?

I'm happy with the slot vote I am currently going for, but I have no reason to be stubborn about it. If geraintm is someone we can agree to get out, I'll swap to that, or I'll hold strong if we want to get Solon out. Power role claiming on three votes feels weak and desperate.

[bugspray]

i will yeet:
mini > clidd > gerain

Not me anymore?

not right now

[Dannflor]

I don't like the clidd wagon

[bugspray]

I don't like the clidd wagon

why is clidd town?

[Dannflor]

I feel like he is

[Dannflor]

seriously, I think his consistently transparent posting this game wrt his reads is towny

at the same time he seems to be thinking things through and I can track some sort of thorough line of thought process through his posts

his votes feel a lot more to me like "let's see what happens here" then "ooh I can vote this inconspicuously"

[bugspray]

"let's see what happens here"

this kind of experimental voting you suggest is condewsive to scum trying to create a good wagon that sticks to a townie

[RLotus]

In post 903, Solon wrote:
I be a TPR! Get off my wagon or be off with thy heads!


really, another day 1 claim. i think i believe about one third of these are true

gretchen and klick are pretty much always the same alignment soo

I don't really see a reason not to believe klick or grethcen. Would klick really run a gambit like that to save his partner? Klick certaintly wouldn't do that as scum to save a town pr. Maybe gretchen happened to fake claim a pr that supposedly synergizes with Klick? Seems doubtful.

Mini's slot claimed in a really weird spot. Doesn't seem natural that they would feel the pressure to claim there. It is also a pretty safe fakeclaim given there are 2 other prs that can die in the night.

[Dannflor]

"let's see what happens here"

this kind of experimental voting you suggest is condewsive to scum trying to create a good wagon that sticks to a townie

it's conducive to a townie trying to figure out people's alignments too

what is your read on him

[Dannflor]

mafia having information about the setup is not unusual btw

[clidd]

VOTE: HypoSoc

[Featherless Biped]

hey, half caught up, and my brain starts saturating from mafia, could anyone summarize what are the claims to me before my braincell implodes?

also, VOTE: saulon

[clidd]

{Dann} {bugspray} {April Ludgate}

-

{RLotus} {geraintm}
{Featherless Bipedal}
{Solon} {Amélie}
{DrippingGoofball} {AliceK}
{Gretchen}
{HypoSoc}

[Featherless Biped]

hey, could you say in a few words what makes hypo your bottom read pretty plucked please?

[clidd]

He's not a slot that I feel is a lhf and the little attention he is receiving does not seem compatible with the town!Hypo scenario imo. I suppose he would be pushed more by the scum side if he were town here.

Comparatively, all the others have reasons to be above. He's the weakest slot atm.

[clidd]

Dann is practically reading me like a book. Normally I would be worried, but I remember town!Dann having good behavioral analysis in the two games I saw him playing, so it's not like he's abusing tmi to create reasons to have me as a townread.

[clidd]

Bugpray is Bugpray, nothing has changed.

Scum is afraid to push them and they are probably the nk target for tonight, instead of April, considering that they are getting to the point of utr.

Their reads are not particularly motivating, but their presence is one of the factors that is moving the game forward and I appreciate that.

[bugspray]

Dann is practically reading me like a book.

especially when he's your scumpartner

[clidd]

I don't know the accuracy of my read on April, as I don't think he's a slot that I can distinguish 100% on the first day, but for the time being I didn't notice any ping that caught my attention and I don't think he's playing maliciously, as in the others scumgames of his that I have in memory.

It can be a purposeful switch to make me townread him in the scum!April scenario, but I don't have enough information to see that. With what I have rn, my impression is that the slot is town.

[clidd]

In relation to Lotus, I have a very clear image of his scumgame in my mind and rereading the game again, it gets very obvious the political way in which scum!Lotus plays.

Compared to the current game, I believe he is playing in a less political way and his vague participation is giving me the feeling of lack of direction, that is, lack of information.

It is possible that scum!Lotus is getting rid of the triggers that I noticed in his scumgame, but such switch is hard due to the fact that he has little experience as scum and is relatively new to the site, so the simplest conclusion is that he is more likely town than not.

[Dannflor]

Dann is practically reading me like a book.

especially when he's your scumpartner

that's a weird post

[clidd]

Gera is acting the same as town!Gera our past game in the sense of confusing reads and bad logic.

I see no reason to think that he is scum here.