TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)


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Post Post #5475 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:24 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 5472, innocentvillager wrote:I’ve seen TPR!abr do essentially this in mini normal 2180 when he was busy
In post 2249, Albert B. Rampage wrote:I'm moving and cyberpunk 2077 is coming out wednesday.

My posting will be greatly reduced.

I see that VPB has fakeclaimed.

VOTE: VPB
FOS Gamma
this is the post i was talking about

people thought it was a scumclaim, VPB was basically confirmed TPR at this point, ABR just didn't catch up carefully

im not saying oka's reaction here is even NAI, i think it's scummy

but it's not 100% scum
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Post Post #5476 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:25 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 5474, Hopkirk wrote:I don't like that Gypyx take from IV. Why's Gypyx throwing shade at me as well there, I assume it's a separate reason to 'being a pr' since he's not shading the other claims as well
lol, he's not shading you for play, i don't think he has read anything tbh beyond what im telling him

it is entirely due to you getting a non VT check from the neapolitan
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Post Post #5477 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:29 am

Post by innocentvillager »

ik u don’t like flippant shade hop pls forgive me
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Post Post #5478 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:30 am

Post by Hopkirk »

So why does he say he wants to flip me over say A50?
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Post Post #5479 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:32 am

Post by Cephrir »

im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
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Post Post #5480 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:32 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Like... 'some guy who hasn't read the game thinks we should flip people who show as power roles to the neapolitan', what? That's just posting bad theory and presenting it without clarifying it's clearly dumb is shade. I await your public denunciation of Gypyx and his prompt removal from your team.
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Post Post #5481 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:34 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Oka isn't scum from claim he's scum from play btw. He hard pushed against Bell yesterday and he's being throwing shade at me the entire game. There's a reason he's been near the bottom of my Poe for a while so don't act like this is only because of a claim
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Post Post #5482 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:36 am

Post by innocentvillager »

nah gypyx is the theory guy on our team, he’s good with setup stuff so I go to him a lot for this kind of stuff

A50 claimed a while ago while you claimed after it was known the neap targeted you and got a PR result

I imagine it’s because of that. Yes with no other info a not VT check is scum!indicative, this is basic probability

If you really want more, I can ask him again, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable
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Post Post #5483 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:36 am

Post by innocentvillager »

i agree oka/bell associatives are bad

Like I said I’m going to vote oka probably
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Post Post #5484 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:36 am

Post by innocentvillager »

I don’t think you’re scum fwiw hopkirk
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Post Post #5485 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:37 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 5479, Cephrir wrote:im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
which direction?
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Post Post #5486 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:38 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Oh yeah you did the Bayesian calcs when I asked earlier lol, I can see why you're looking at it from that mindset I guess.
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Post Post #5487 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:50 am

Post by Cephrir »

In post 5485, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 5479, Cephrir wrote:im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
which direction?
it seems townsided, it feels like we have a lot of stuff
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Post Post #5488 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:14 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 5487, Cephrir wrote:
In post 5485, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 5479, Cephrir wrote:im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
which direction?
it seems townsided, it feels like we have a lot of stuff
now that you mention it i think that's partly why gypyx is okay killing today in {oka, hopkirk} lol
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Post Post #5489 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:14 am

Post by innocentvillager »

like if they are both PR that's probably too much?
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Post Post #5490 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:10 am

Post by implosion »

51The last possible television channel number in the UHF bandplan for American terrestrial television since December 31, 2011, when channels 52—69 were withdrawn
The number of the laps of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.


Vote Count 4.1
OkaPoka
(3): mastina, jjh927, Hopkirk
jjh927
(1): OkaPoka
AGar
(1): Titus

Not Voting
(6): innocentvillager, AGar, Winter Flakes, Cephrir, Ythan, Almost50

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for 1:00 AM PST on March 25, in (expired on 2021-03-25 05:00:00).
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Post Post #5491 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Titus »

VOTE: Oka

Sheeping the townblock until I have time to do VCA on Sunday.
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Post Post #5492 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:57 am

Post by Titus »

In post 5488, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 5487, Cephrir wrote:
In post 5485, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 5479, Cephrir wrote:im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
which direction?
it seems townsided, it feels like we have a lot of stuff
now that you mention it i think that's partly why gypyx is okay killing today in {oka, hopkirk} lol

Can we remind me of the claims?
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Post Post #5493 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:53 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5453, jjh927 wrote:By the way, Mastina, if I'd have tried to get you to claim my role/results, would you have done it?
IF there was a way for us to get away with it, I might've considered it, but it wasn't possible: I was defending you in a way suggesting a PR result, so there wasn't a realistic way for me to claim the Hopkirk result.
In post 5445, jjh927 wrote:Still thought that, given my positive result on hopkirk, that there probably aren't any more PRs and I can functionally be a cop
Fair enough and not wrong.

Granted today with an innocent I'd be voting one of {AGar, Oka} anyway tho. :P
In post 5456, innocentvillager wrote:ok so if we believe jjh (probably) hopkirk is not a VT and OkaPoka is not a VT?
Correct. And OkaPoka's reaction is a scumclaim in of itself, aside from the roleclaim itself being a scumclaim. Not to mention Oka's been scum by play the entire game and was part of the hard-force onto the Bell counterwagon of Titus.
In post 5457, innocentvillager wrote:im willing to kill Oka today here i guess but why are you guys so confident
1: In years upon years of setup review, I know for a fact that OkaPoka's claim is fundamentally flawed in a way that makes it 100% definitely not a real town role. There's multiple, fundimental, issues with the claim.

2: Setup speculation beyond the above--I am pretty sure that we can have one additional town power role beyond jjh and Almost50. We shouldn't have TWO extras. With Hopkirk as the additional PR, OkaPoka would be scum.

3: Oka's reaction today screams defeated, caught, scum: he knows that failing to save Bell yesterday when pushing that hard, failing to kill the Neapolitan investigative (Xtoxm was a decent kill regardless, but it's pretty damn obvious the scum were blindsided by it being jjh and that they didn't know it was him and thought it had to be someone else and guessed wrong about it being Xtoxm), having many of the needed mislynches become conftown either via their role or via their play, all add up to an inevitable result: the town has an autowin here now.

4: OkaPoka was a major pusher of the counterwagon to Bell the flipped scum, both on the mastina counterwagon and the Titus counterwagon. He tried to force a claim out of me, repeatedly, because he needed the information I was holding back. Without knowing what I knew, he couldn't make the right call, so he tried to force that information out, and when he couldn't, he compromised into pushing a wagon that the townbeards were willing to back the scumteam on.

5: OkaPoka has been scum the entire game and I've literally written cases demonstrating all of the reasons for why he was scum. Having what amounts to a cop guilty on him is just the cherry on top of the already existing mountain of evidence.
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Post Post #5494 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:00 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5479, Cephrir wrote:im starting to wonder how this setup is balanced
I can explain to you how if you'd like.

But basically, there's three ways we can handle it.

1: We place some trust in the obvious of Oka being scum and don't massclaim or reveal setup speculation/balance information. (Basically, trust that Hopkirk is town.)
2: I reveal the setup speculation along with how the game would be balanced, but don't massclaim or if we do, do so after I've revealed this. (Basically, trust that Hopkirk is town.)
3: We massclaim without me first revealing setup spec and how the game is balanced, and after finishing a massclaim, I reveal how the game is balanced via setup speculation. (Basically, don't trust that Hopkirk is town, at least until after he claims.)

Any of the three is fine at this point. But as I trust Hopkirk to be town, my default would be 1 or 2. :P
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Post Post #5495 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:05 am

Post by Cephrir »

I mean yes my point was that even assuming oka scum I'm not certain all these PRs can be real. But it's not really important right now.
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Post Post #5496 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:07 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5492, Titus wrote:Can we remind me of the claims?
Dannflor: 3-shot Announcing Neapolitan. (Presumably burned a shot N1, but nobody claimed to have been targeted N1, so presumably investigated scum.)
DrippingGoofBall: Tracker.
Dunnstral: Odd-night Vigilante.
jjh: Universal Backup, turned 3-shot Announcing Neapolitan upon the death of Dannflor. (In setups where two town PRs can die the same night, the mod always is required to have a way to resolve which role goes to the universal backup. The most common way is to have the scum kill be the role inherited and is what I believe implosion recommends so I imagine that's the resolution method he used.) Targeted Hopkirk N2 burning one shot (since Dannflor burned a shot N1 presumably, presumably 2/3 burned), got Not a Vanilla Townie. Targeted OkaPoka N3 burning second (presumably last) shot, got Not a Vanilla Townie. Hopkirk confirmed that an Announcing Neapolitan targeted him N2.
Almost50: Announcing Babysitter.
Hopkirk: Unspecified, but apparently breadcrumbed, power role of some sort.

---
OkaPoka: JOAT with the powers of {Hider, Commuter}.
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Post Post #5497 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:15 am

Post by mastina »

In post 5495, Cephrir wrote:I mean yes my point was that even assuming oka scum I'm not certain all these PRs can be real. But it's not really important right now.
Well there's two scum left alive and Oka is one of them, so inherently, in the PR pool of {jjh, Almost50, Hopkirk}, there is a MAXIMUM of one scum left.

jjh is conftown.
Almost50 and Hopkirk are both town by play.
And I can explain the setup for why Hopkirk+A50 would be town by role fairly confidently, too.

Which is why the last scum is in the unclaimed, and highly likely to have been on the Titus wagon yesterday.

A pool that's literally,
{Cephrir, innocentvillager, AGar, Winter Flakes}.

Given that I think you're town (tho I admit it'd be hilarious if the exact two scum I nailed lastgame were the exact two scum I misread as town this game and kept my 50/50 on catching scum/town, but as hilarious as that'd be I'm pretty damn sure you're not scum here), and given that I think innocentvillager is town here (I realize people aren't going to like IV's posts today but I believe IV is just showing caution--unnecessary caution that's not needed, but caution that I don't think is scum), that means the pool for last scum is literally:
{AGar, Winter Flakes}.

While it could be either, I favor AGar > Winter Flakes from overall play across the game.

But that said, today is 100% a flip-Oka day.

We can spend as much time as we like discussing things, but the game is pretty much won at this point. Scum basically lost the moment they decided to bus Luca, and then lost the coinflip yesterday when they banked on Ythan, and then lost further last night by missing the Neapolitan that they were aiming for. And they know it, too.
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Post Post #5498 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:18 am

Post by Cephrir »

you think it's totally impossible jjh could be a scum backup neapolitan? ignoring your read?
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Post Post #5499 (ISO) » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:19 am

Post by Cephrir »

i realize it would be a pretty wild play to use that to bus oka, but just hypothetically so we can not worry about it ever again.
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