Newbie 2057: Mars! - End!

[CreativeName]

since no one claimed tracker or freindly neighbour it seemed logical that jk was the only power

[six pomegranate seeds]

I'm going to cut bits out because I wrote way too much tbh with you.

The, I’d night kill you creative line from Wheme seems like it was specifically setup. Wheme also railing against Creative felt really weird, Creative actually felt pretty townie when the hammer was on him. Also Wheme’s “you’re either PR or scum” read feels fake as well, I didn’t really get that sorting vibe at all from creative on d1, I more agree with skitter’s take that he seemed like a VT until I reread d2 knowing he had claimed invest. The PR or scum thing in retrospect looks like a setup to swing the vote off of creative and wheme yelling to hammer didn’t seem that convincing because it didn’t feel like he was actually trying to convince any one of skitter, andante, or I to actually hammer - instead he was just saying this is scum. Like he never does any iso or any any appeal to either me skitter or andante, if I think I have scum at E-1 I think I’d just start begging people to vote with me. And wheme is an SE so should be able to do it. Also all that stuff took place when I was at work was super lame. I sort of looked at the timeline it seems Wheme showed up around 1 pm and railed against creative who rr’d around 9 pm. I wonder if it was planned out so that wheme could force the rr out of creative.

#324 does to me read as scum distancing in hind site. 

My night time solve:

I think it comes down to andante is a never vote player - “reads are falling apart” reads evolved a lot from hard voting skitter with me to identifying me and skitter as town jumps on kaz and wheme at various points and mafia don’t afk therefore andante is town. #352 “creative can we interact?” does not read as s/s.

Kaz is a never vote player for very early push on creative for good reasons and is very uncertain about in early d1 comes out the gates on d2 wanting to hard get creative, when I come into the game to defend SAMCRO he votes with courage and hits a scum he was 2nd on the creative wagon that sat at E1 super dangerous thing to do as scum imo and just parked vote too making creative a very viable vote on d2 Kaz is a never vote player. The most town thing about kaz is #224 kaz commits to TRing SAM and Griff if creative flips scum, as a mafia with possible tracker/FN alive committing that hard to this read he’d need to ML both skitter and whemstar to win with a possible invest alive this is just a suicidal post for a mafia to make. I think kaz is just town.

So Skitter or wheme is scum. The option is that scum tried to distance i.e. wheme pushes creative and creative pushes wheme i.e. #324. Or both the scum just TR each other including Creative put skitter as highest TR in the game and they hard align to open d2 voting with one another. I think the prior is more likely - it gives mafia insurance that if one of them goes down, the other will have some town credit to play with in final 3. I think it’s very scary and risky to just hard TR your mafia partner imo. I think skitter sussing wheme #573 when he is screaming to hammer her partner would be an incredibly bold play as mafia to the point I think it is unlikely. I think the pair may just be Creative / Wheme here. I think there would be a beautiful symmetry in distancing, Creative pushes on me/wheme while attempting to pocket skitter. Wheme pushes on skitter/creative while attempting to pocket me. It seems like a solution to a pair. I think it’s hard for me to believe the scum from 3/2-3/5 or whatever the dates were came up with the plan of “let’s both just instavote SAMCRO.” I think the distancing is the more likely option. #61 feels like a distance post from creative, he never says hi to wheme or is friendly his first interaction is to put wheme into a serious read

[skitter30]

like given the andante kill *now* it looks like we're in 2a and there really is a tracker out there who didn't cc you but like you couldn't have known that yesterday from a town perspective

~

i also think that we shold take this time to try to solve the whole game, vs quickhammering. although creative is always the flip here

~
creative at this point you're probably scum but on the very, very, very minute chance you're town i'll go over why the claim was bad adn why we now have to flip you in post

~
also pom now you can kinda see why quickvoting doesn't necessarily help so much
we really should have let the full claim thing play out, but at least a vt ate the nk

[skitter30]

since no one claimed tracker or freindly neighbour it seemed logical that jk was the only power

you said you thought we were in 2a. i don't understand why 2a over 2c

[CreativeName]

I'll let you flip me, but if people think it's wheme as well please lynch wheme first so town has a chance

[six pomegranate seeds]

The things I wrote down during night phase (i.e. the braindump):

Kazyan feels like a town? susses Creative first really early in game - 71 confirms he’s town to me kaz/sam were aligned so now they are town aligned kazyan is most town

Andante feels like a town? him hard sussing kaz feels like a town move, him hard sussing on wheme feels like a town move him recognizing me and skitter town on town feels like a town move, feel like a scum would pick a side more than get us out of the tunnels. Also after seeing SAMCRO flip town it makes me feel good that someone who afks is far more likely to be town.

Skitter hard aligned with Creative therefore town?
It’s either whemestar or skitter, it’s probably whemestar

I think whemstar may actually kill skitter here lol - or just kill andante, does he have to kill andante?
I think whemstar will leave me alive because i was sussing on kaz
559 creative is slipping kayzan town

Also I think whemstar hammering is just outing lol, him pushing Creative into claiming was scummy then immediately unvoting his PR read is an excuse to vote on the miselim wagon imo

it’s skitter or whemestar in any case

Waiting during night phase as town is mad boring tbh with you. I understand why SAMCRO forgot the game was going on now lol. 70 skitter, I wonder if making observations about your partner’s tendencies can be this organic as mafia. skitter is making observations about creative’s personality she later says he seems more new than he lets on (which actually played into me thinking he just played invest super weird and ignoring the fact that I would never sit for 24 hours at E-1 as invest with a red) but if you have a private mafia chat going isn’t making personality observations in main chat about your partner a little weird?

115 Kazyan is town for agreeing to the same distribution as creative. Mafia don’t openly agree with thoughts like that in broad daylight imo. More kazyan town points.

116 Creative puts skitter as literally his strongest TR at various points of the game. This seems more like a pocket than pairing.

210 and 207 I’m not sure that scum just hard align like this. Do they just openly vote together on a town to open the day? I think andante is townie and if I can believe from his POV he can figure out Skitter and I were TvT then it’s just wheme as mafia tbh. I remember one post where I said I may be TRing one mafia right now and that’s okay, rereading my initial read of the game I said that creative and skitter didn’t feel like THE solve that is what my read was without any outside influence or manipulation from others, doesn’t that imply that now that creative has flipped scum that skitter is implied town? I had similar dissassocation reads at points between Creative and Kaz it felt one scum one town, now that Creative flips red it may just directly implies Kaz town. Andante is just independently town because mafia don’t afk (now my gut feeling that this is true is supported by SAMCRO town lol) and he played town. This leaves Wheme as outed scum (I hope lol).

[CreativeName]

since no one claimed tracker or freindly neighbour it seemed logical that jk was the only power

you said you thought we were in 2a. i don't understand why 2a over 2c

I said the wrong letter lol :L sorry

[skitter30]

I was also trying to bait a mafia into counter claiming me because I knew we were 2A

no, you said you knew we're in 2a. there's no possible way for you to know that unless you're scum

even if you meant 2c there's also no possible way for you to know that unless you're scum too

[six pomegranate seeds]

I actually now saw that Creative and Wheme voted together on Pooky on D1 which made me lose some confidence so I reread this portion of the game.

At post 50 there are two votes on wheme (kaz/pooky) / two votes on pooky (SAMCRO / whemestar)

55 creative jumps in with his vote that puts 3 votes on pooky (SAMCRO / whemestar / Creative) saying this is a gut read. I wonder if this is just scum making sure that pooky will be the default vote over their partner if no one comes to a conclusion at EOD since they have more votes. Losing your partner on d1 would be impossible to recover from on d1. This could explain creative’s impulse to jump in here with a shit push on pooky.

70 from skitter feels like an organic deduction about creative’s mafia experience. Maybe it’s NAI but having an organic deduction about your mafia partner in day chat is probably a little harder to pull off?

74 does a mafia skitter ask a town Kaz what he thinks of her TRing her own mafia partner? I’m not sure she does.

91 I think I TR this post on initial read. I think in hindsight this could be wheme having to push on pooky as a way of self pressing.

94 feels like Creative slipping Skitter town “I am not saying me and skitter are masons but it is something to look for in people's later reads”part of me doubts that a mafia mentions the idea that they are masons with their mafia partner lol

95 It seems like wheme is trying to get skitter to sus onto pooky as it stands its still 3-2. Losing mafia from RVS vote d1 is really bad and he has to ensure he lives. I also think the level of certainty that wheme has in this read is strange, all pooky has done so far is meme, I’m not sure what front there is so far. 95 actually feels really discordant from the way that wheme plays on d2. On d2 wheme is apparently actually super convinced that creative is mafia, but he never implores me or skitter to actually hammer creative or try to get us to SR him, instead he just feels like he’s playing up his own read instead of trying to get others to vote with him. When a town spooky is on the chopping block though 95 reads as wheme really trying to get him voted.

96/97 is what made me initially TR whemestar on the first read through. In retrospect I wonder if this is a plotted out interaction. Wheme plays up this PR read on creative so he can hard push creative to look town but then have an excuse to pivot off by forcing creative’s fake claim. Andante was expressing a desire to hammer creative but Skitter and I weren’t so Wheme had to force the rr out of skitter before andante came back, which is what happened. So boom, Wheme gets a free line “you would be my night kill Creative” gets to hard push creative knowing that creative can swing the vote off and wheme can believably unvote in that situation. Also him hammering there after saying let’s wait for a SAMCRO replacement felt weird.

[skitter30]

ngl the fact that they did kill andante almost does look like they were looking for an actual tracker

could be as well that she was just super obvtown but those are my thoughts

[CreativeName]

I just guessed based on he logic of the situation, no one claimed to have info so I assumed it was just vanilla left

[skitter30]

but a tracker wouldn't have claimed at that point yet tho

~
seeds i really admire your dedication and rereading, you're very thorough

[six pomegranate seeds]

101 sounds like a power role soft but wheme doesn’t die at night. Creative asking what do you mean by that sets up wheme to clearly imply his PR read so it can be acted out on d2.

105 doesn’t feel like a real reaction, on my initial skim I TR wheme for withholding information, creative is light sussing wheme, yet is voting pooky still at this point essentially saving wheme fro being the default vote, why not swap votes here if you suspect wheme? I think no one has swapped votes yet at this point it’s still 3 votes on pooky (SAMCRO / whemestar / Creative) vs two votes on wheme (kaz/pooky) so creative is here scumming wheme while also literally defending him from being a panic EOD vote with his vote. Creatives vote feels very discordant with his purported thought here and I wonder if this just makes 105 level 1 distancing from his partner.

116 Creative attempts to say that Pooky is scummier than Where but when spooky calls him out his argument seems really basic and not well thought out “you started a wagon” in creative’s initial vote on pooky he says starting a wagon is good. 123 Kaz brings up a real reason to SR spooky and then creative copies the reason in his next post lol, to me this reads as creative needing to invent reasons to keep his vote on spooky to prevent the vote from swinging to Wheme. To town at this point in the game all these votes feel like memes, no one has really seriously placed their votes, but to the two scum the votes feel dangerous. Maybe this is how it makes sense that scum Wheme and scum Creative voted together on day 1, it was out of fear that Wheme would turn into a default info d1 vote and it also explains why Creative reaches so hard to keep his vote on Pooky when spooky eventually starts to feel town “dude there were two votes lol” to Creative two votes on his scum partner feels dangerous so he feels the need to vote with him. I’m also not sure wheme would have coordinated their vote together because I think Creative voted a few real time hours after wheme voted, maybe it was just a fear vote from Creative.

106 from Wheme read scum on initial read and still does. Having no fear of death at night is not townie. I am always paranoid of being the night kill as a town.

Looking at wagons, wheme is the one who is one both miselim wagons (actually - I am too!). Skitter is on none. Maybe that actually makes me suspicious on skitter a little would scum really just go on both wagons? But maybe they have to in order to win. I have no conception of what it takes to wins as mafia in these games. And the second wagon is obviously NAI skitter said she would have voted if andante had not cc’d. So maybe I should breathe easily about this point.

Skitter 49
Kazyan 23
CreativeName 47
Samcro 15
Where 30
6pom 46
Andante 20
By vote count logic from early d2 now that I axe out Creative if we go by order Skitter > 6 pom > Wheme > Kazyan > Andante > SAMCRO the people in the middle are always people who I would suspect the most now that we can remove creative from the picture Wheme and kaz are in the middle and I’m going to make Kaz a never vote player. So it makes me feel a little bit good about a Wheme vote.

[Kazyan]

fferylt, your countdown appears to be off by 1 hour. No big deal.

I was considering Creative/Andante, because of the "1 active, 1 inactive" thing that Creative kept bringing up. That could have been the actual Refuge In Audacity he was talking about--telling the game his entire plan. But I guess now I can take off the tinfoil hat, there.

I'm pretty nervous about a possible Creative/Skitter team, since they've aligned for the whole game. However, I'm willing to put all my chips on Creative/Whemestar. Go look over post #581. There's this clear "look what you made me do" implication from Creative that I don't like; this looks to me like a gambit to give Whemestar a giant pile of towncred so that he's the one who survives ELo. I can't

rule out

that Creative and Skitter planned that to put the scummy-spotlight on Whemestar and get him out of Creative's hair, but that seems less likely to me than just trying to save one's partner.

[Kazyan]

Is it bad that I just want to sheep whatever Seeds's final conclusion is? I give him like a 2% chance of being a deepwolf, tops.

[six pomegranate seeds]

Is my read actually correct? I feel pretty good about it. It seems like it fits together in my head. After seeing SAMCRO flip town, I’m just going to go with my reads I think without letting others pollute my head at this point. I want to be right or wrong on my own reads, and not be talked out of something.

This was my night time solve and my arguments to the town. My opinion is that wheme and creative are the scum pair. I’m hoping my night analysis and putting together all my thoughts has led to the correct conclusion. I’m really relying on my association reads that Creative and Kaz were unaligned, Kaz and Sam were aligned, Skitter and creative were unaligned, and that Andante is just independent town. This leaves Wheme who I did not get strong association feelings about (except as possible scum with SAMCRO interestingly enough) as the only possible option as scum if I believe that my association reads are correct. I think maybe I have an inkling of doubt that Skitter could be the scum and just played very boldy hard aligning with her mafia - maybe that’s what a strong scum does in forum mafia. But I do not have enough knowledge to make that call right now and would rather go with my gut feeling that mafia distance for the insurance. And this solve feels consistent with my independent initial synthesis 317 “Tl;dr I want to vote skitter. If skitter is town I’m kind of lost this game but that would probably mean to me that creative is scum with maybe whemstar or kazyan? Kazyan is willing to vote samcro over creative today is actually a little scary but he’s played townie imo so far. If Meagen is mafia it also make sense that my reads are really off because I’ve just ignored them.” the creative is scum with whemestar or kazyan was my initial independent gut feeling if I assume that skitter creative cannot be the solve, and now kazyan feels town in retrospect. Therefore the solve is Wheme/Creative.

The conclusion/synthesis i.e. the tl;dr (read this if you skip everything else):

Andante town:
mafia doesn’t afk most of the time, coming into the game going guns blazing into skitter is a town impulse if skitter is town, a mafia would be afraid of her I think. Andante swapping vote into kaz and identifying skitter v seeds as town v town i think was townie, a mafia would pick sides in the conflict and stoke the flames.

Kaz town:
when I come into the game to defend SAMCRO he votes with courage and hits a scum he was 2nd on the creative wagon that sat at E1 super dangerous thing to do as scum imo and just parked vote too making creative a very viable vote on d2 Kaz is a never vote player. You should never vote for Kaz here. 71 Kaz pushes on Creative super early with a good gut suss that is uncertain and seems to come from a townie place. 115 Kazyan comes and agrees with creative that there is one inactive and one active scum, I don’t think mafia just blindly agree about some weird idea like that in front of the town, they’d prefer to fake an argument in my opinion. 125 CreativeName agrees with Kazyan about a push onto Pooky using Kazyan’s reasons to support his sus of Pooky, I don’t think scum uses their partners argument to supplement their push. 208 you saw this post as Kaz having an agenda in pushing creative, but in hindsight this just seems like a good read between the two who honestly did seem one scum one maf to me on initial skim. 357 creative reads kaz as “Kayzan - Null - possibly just a town who is being pocketed by scum” feels like he is just telling the town that Kaz is town. 326 I think in retrospect is Kaz just being super town. He feels the SvT in this grouping and when I am able to town case samcro he votes into the other rather than entertaining my Skitter suspicion. 430 and 431 on my initial gut read was that Kaz could just see how town I was and was sticking up for me genuinely in a way that wheme never really did - wheme TR me but he never really tried to defend me from anyone it was more like he just told me I was super town.

The most town thing about kaz is 224 kaz commits to TRing SAM and Griff if creative flips scum, as a mafia with possible tracker/FN alive committing that hard to this read he’d need to ML both skitter and whemstar to win with a possible invest alive this is just a suicidal post for a mafia to make. I think kaz is just town.

Skitter town:
This is probably the town case I doubt the most. I think skitter can still be mafia but my gut tells me she isn’t. I think most of this game is probably within skitters scum range. But 569 I think Skitter thinking creative was a villy was more believable than Wheme thinking he was PR. As a town I can say that creative invest claim was really surprising and skitter had the same feeling. Skitter also I cannot blame for not wanting to vote creative because his “flailing” in where’s words felt townie. 573 pings townie, would be very ballsy for a mafia to sus the guy screaming to hammer their partner if they knew their partner was A) on the chopping block B) about to out fake claiming cop when there could potentially still be a invest cc that screws over the mafia team. Also 564 skitter is the one who asks creative to claim yet creative actually blames wheme for making him.

But I honestly think the towniest thing about skitter is this 210 and 207, if scum really just took 3 days IRL for their master plan is to just hard align and shit push onto SAMCRO that is really ballsy. The other towniest thing about skitter is this: 94 feels like Creative slipping Skitter town “I am not saying me and skitter are masons but it is something to look for in people's later reads” part of me doubts that a mafia mentions the idea that they are masons with their mafia partner lol.

I think it is probably in skitters scum range to play like this but I want to vote with my gut and my gut on my initial read of the game was that skitter/creative wasn’t the exact solve and that I was TRing a mafia. Which brings me to wheme…

Wheme scum:
489 was the first time in real time that Wheme scum pinged me. It pings even harder scum in retrospect. He apparently thinks creative is super scum but is using my TR on him to get me to doubt my SAMCRO TR read, effectively protecting Creative and undermining his own vote. Creative’s d1 aligning can be explained because he felt fear that wheme would turn into the d1 vote, he light scums wheme but chooses to shit push onto pooky when pooky has town reactions to creative voting him and has to borrow kazyan’s read on spooky to continue justifying his vote. Creative scum cases wheme but then protects him with his vote. In fact Creative has been scum casing wheme the entire game but never has voted him once. 95-97 I think can be a plotted interaction to give wheme free town credit with the “Creative you’d be my town read” card and gives wheme an excuse to sus Creative to force a convincing rr and also an excuse to believe the claim and ultimately vote SAMCRO. 95 reads as wheme actually attempting to get spooky voted over himself, yet I cannot find an analogous entreaty from wheme on d2 when the guy he can’t imagine flilpping town is on the chopping block. 554 he actually expresses complacency, he doesn’t care that andante doesn’t want to hammer when the guy who is confirmed scum from his POV is at E-1. If I’m town there I would have been begging anyone to hammer. Wheme is an SE so he has no excuse. He never tries to get skitter or I or Andante to actually hammer or get skitter or I to doubt our TR on creative - he actually tried to get me to doubt my TR on SAMCRO instead in 489. This discordance makes me feel like wheme / creative is the scumpair.

If I am incorrect I apologize in advance town - I tried my best to help us win. I will listen to what you guys have to say, but I want to document this so that I can go back and know my independent feelings before I make any decisions. Last day phase I let myself get really influenced by your guys posts - I think if I learned anything from my first day of forum mafia, it’s that rereading your own posts is as important as reading others. And if I have my reads down here I can let myself be swept up in your theories and then safely return to mine and avoid being manipulated like yesterday.

I will consider what you guys have to say, but also want my reads down so I know what my true gut feeling was from night analysis.

I think I open this day by asking Kazyan does he see scum as more hard aligning or more distancing usually? Because that to me is the crux of the game - skitter hard aligning with creative I read town, wheme distancing from creative I read scum.

[six pomegranate seeds]

Is it bad that I just want to sheep whatever Seeds's final conclusion is? I give him like a 2% chance of being a deepwolf, tops.

I'm praying your not mafia man because I'm literally never going to vote you LOL. Please be town Kaz I'll be so sad if you aren't.

[fferyllt]

fferylt, your countdown appears to be off by 1 hour. No big deal.

fixed! (damned daylight savings time)

[skitter30]

seeds i'm gonna read that in greater depth soon :)

[six pomegranate seeds]

Also Fwiw my solve is entirely based on the idea that creative is scum if creative just claimed invest with a red as town villager then this game is basically over that's throwing dude. But fwiw Kaz I'm interested in discussing with you whether you think skitter could still be mafia because I do have a little fear she could have hard aligned and defended creative because I've played 0 forum mafia before and have little idea how scum normally play - I'm flying purely on my preconceived notion that scum distance.

[skitter30]

yeah ngl there is a part of me that still thinks creative is town but if we live in that universe the game is just over because we have to flip him here

usually scum distance on this forum. sometimes scum are somewhat bold and will like hard townread each other but i think that that's less likely all in all

in newbie games i in particular am more likely to do the latter than the former if i can as scum, tbf, just providing you with relevant context

[Kazyan]

I'm praying your not mafia man because I'm literally never going to vote you LOL. Please be town Kaz I'll be so sad if you aren't.

Literally thinking the same thing about you tbh

[Gamesolve omitted for brevity]

I think I open this day by asking Kazyan does he see scum as more hard aligning or more distancing usually? Because that to me is the crux of the game - skitter hard aligning with creative I read town, wheme distancing from creative I read scum.

Uhhhhhhhhhh that's a hard question, because it's so meta-dependent. I guess in Mini Normal 2187, we lost due to some masterful distancing by unwnd and 2ndchosen1, so my one (1) datapoint makes me think that distancing is more likely in the meta? But when I play Among Us and roll Impostor, I tend to hard-defend my partner. That game is really short and people can't go back and relisten to voice chat, though, so it probably doesn't apply. Either way, both Whemestar and Skitter are SEs, so I figure they're more likely to follow the meta.

I guess Skitter bringing up the "I'm really good at distancing" point could be a way to diffuse suspicion of a Creative/Skitter pair, but like you said, scum don't want to talk about their scumgame.

[Kazyan]

If you're relying on me to get an idea of how scum normally play, uh, this is only my third game and I still don't really know. I've spectated the Iceland game, but that seems like exceptional nontypical play

[Kazyan]

Like in my second game, Newbie 2054, the scum were instantly destroyed, And in Mini Normal 2187, that wasn't a newbie game. The scumteam was really good there. In retrospect, I don't see any scum that hard-align in any of my games of the Iceland game, so I have to conclude that distancing is more likely.

[six pomegranate seeds]

95-97 I think can be a plotted interaction to give wheme free town credit with the “Creative you’d be my town read” card

I mean "Creative you'd be my night kill."