Mini Normal 2200 | Game Over

[Luca Blight]

Well I can certainly relate to his SR on Menalque as I felt the same at the time. It seems a little disingenuous how you're assuming a scummy motivation behind it.

Anyway I'll read his ISO later with an open mind. I didn't like his early play much fwiw but he's seemed increasingly townie

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like i dont even particularly townread mena on play cuz its pretty atrocious.

but skitter is insisting that its NAI and I have no reason to see why she would be lying about that.

just on pure probability odds mena is like 75% odds town, so in 3 out of 4 universes this is wounded town mena trailing the pack if skitter's info that this is NAI for mena is true

which makes fark's push on him look very ick.

we are like 6+ days out from deadline - there's no reason to rush the elim and pressure for votes before claim.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Idk how much i seriously believe in Farkran being scum, but it does sound intriguing. And i like the theater-like performance you’re giving out of scum!Farkran being a hungry wolf stalking baby gazelle Menalque. It’s like a very good plot twist to an crime movie. The trustworthy detective giy was the villain all along.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Well I can certainly relate to his SR on Menalque as I felt the same at the time. It seems a little disingenuous how you're assuming a scummy motivation behind it.

Anyway I'll read his ISO later with an open mind. I didn't like his early play much fwiw but he's seemed increasingly townie

dude I had the same thoughts about Mena that you did,

that this looks nothing like blazing obvtown mena.

but do you think this is scum skitter trying to hard save scum mena? like really?

cuz there's like four possible worlds right


Scum skitter scum mena - kinda hard for me to believe she doesnt just bus him instead of sticking her neck out for him when he's like choking hard

town skitter scum mena - ok sure this is possible but then her belief about mena's IRL issues is still a true piece of information which makes this 1/3 as likely as:

town skitter town mena - this makes the most sense to me as the world we are in from both a probability angle as well as how skitter is playing.

scum skitter town mena - I think she just lets Fark/Lucy push mena to death if this is the case - like she's not getting any thread control out of saving mena, she's throwing a mis-elim away for no reason and like I just think she's much better off with mena being mis-elimed d1 if she's scum and he's town,

i dunno how many times I need to say this but this table is not going to be easy for scum skitter to get mis-elims on, it really does not make sense to me for her to throw an easy mis-elim away.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like I have killed a lot of townies on d1 as scum

and i know what it feels like

and fark has that same red glow in his eyes that I get when Im getting real close to a kill like he had on mena there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

man this is gonna suck if mena was just scum all along and just clowning me with this wounded gazelle act ngl id be pissed.

[Luca Blight]

I've already said I've revised my position on Menalque and I also hard TR Skitter now

I'm just saying I could relate to Farkran's SR, and Farkran himself has revised his position on this

[NorwegianboyEE]

Probability says Mena is prob just scum for playing to his scum meta, and town!Skitter defending him cus he had one sucky towngame with her and now she thinks he always plays like trash.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Idk how much i seriously believe in Farkran being scum, but it does sound intriguing. And i like the theater-like performance you’re giving out of scum!Farkran being a hungry wolf stalking baby gazelle Menalque. It’s like a very good plot twist to an crime movie. The trustworthy detective giy was the villain all along.

i dunno dude maybe im just like super not used to fark's playstyle cuz this is my first game with the dude

ill listen to you guys you all seem to have like way more experience and i dont want to be like town dictatoring this elim.

i just really think the dude is scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've already said I've revised my position on Menalque and I also hard TR Skitter now

I'm just saying I could relate to Farkran's SR, and Farkran himself has revised his position on this

ok sure maybe im just not being fair to fark

but like i aint gonna be always around pounding the drum on this guy

remember me if i get killed and this guy is still alive near the end or w/e


that shit will be on you guyz

[NorwegianboyEE]

I also was hard convinced Farkran was scum in my first game with him. And we were both town.
I think you might just be not used to their playstyle too.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Probability says Mena is prob just scum for playing to his scum meta, and town!Skitter defending him cus he had one sucky towngame with her and now she thinks he always plays like trash.

this version of mena is like opening christmas presents and finding out you got a lump of coal

its kinda dumb

[NorwegianboyEE]

I don’t think it’s a bad take from you, but you might be overthinking it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

If i’m wrong about Farkran you get the last laugh, but overall i think it’s safer to assume he’s just town until he’s still alive or scummy by ElO or something.

[Luca Blight]

I'm not really getting scummy vibes from Chara right now, and their vote on Day isn't actually that bad as I had originally thought so

UNVOTE:

[NorwegianboyEE]

Luca how would you feel about just voting Mena and assuming Skitter is misguided in their read? Because i'm not sure where else to look atm.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Informative flips is what we need, and i think Mena flipping either town or scum would clear and help sort a lot of slots right now.

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Menalque

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think when the argumentation lies between "he is just playing bad, but town" and "could just be scum" it's always better to flip the slot because then you can look at which of the slot's defense of him looked genuine or fake depending on their flip.

[Luca Blight]

Right now I want to look a little closer at Day and the Pooky/Farkran conflict

I’d probably vote Ali before Menalque at this point. I could easily see Menalque flipping either way but I’m willing to trust Skitter’s read for now

[NorwegianboyEE]

Right now I want to look a little closer at Day and the Pooky/Farkran conflict

I’d probably vote Ali before Menalque at this point. I could easily see Menalque flipping either way but I’m willing to trust Skitter’s read for now

Alisae is probably a good choice too, i'm not leaning town at them at this point, because there are too many town slots and i must be wrong somewhere. Also their town spark has been missing for a while.
Pooky/Farkran i'm leaning TvT, but surprisingly i think i like Pooky slightly more as town if we were to assume it's SvT. Because Farkran has shown to be really good at faking their town meta, while Pooky i think would struggle a bit more to make this sort of push if he rolled scum here.
Day idk really, i just gut read them as town for some of their posts but i should probably consider them a bit more.

[Farkran]

I've been reading the last pages before going to sleep but didn't feel like posting - also i don't want to repeat a monologue catchup so here's my most recent thoughts in a flash

I no longer believe skitter is scum, i believe her when she says she would make *this* amount of fuss to save town!mena and i already explained why they can't be s/s

I am still open to the possibility of scum!mena though, his actions are still as scummy as they were earlier - true he's being lhf-y but that doesn't translate into being town and i don't think he's playing outside his scumrange yet

I think pooky has a significant chance to be scum with or without menalque - in a world where the wagon against mena had at most 1 scum (see below) it makes sense for scum!pooky not to oppose town!skitter regardless of mena alignment - i mean, pooky has been arfing at skitter's feet ever since page 5 or something, it would have been an immense scumtell if he went against her to vote town!mena, and if mena is scum all the better for him

Also still about pooky i can see all his stances being fake throughout the game - i think his case on ali was understandable but the way he went around it to unvote was bad and it fuels my thoughts that his most recent scumread of me/lucy is being more insistent because he's involuntarily forced himself in a position where he can't comfortably vote anyone else without looking scummy now so he just *has* to commit to his current reads regardless

In particular i think he dug himself down a hole when he voted lucy - lucy hasn't been scummy and i believe even skitter came to understand that (correct me if i'm wrong here) yet pooky keeps saying Lucy's votes follow a scumdriven agenda - like, what agenda is scum!lucy following exactly with her vote pattern? I've been asking for an explanation for a billion years but the answer is always the same, "lucy has an agenda" - supported by non-significative absolute wording like obviousz/ridiculous/terrible without backing them up with actual explanations

Again on the topic of my agenda for pushing people based on the possibility of them going down rather than actually scumreading them - either pooky has the memory span of a squirrel or he's forgetting how i refused to vote suji when he was highest wagon, how i defended alisae and ydrasse when i could easily join him against either instead - last but not least when i started a wagon against Day when pooky himself was top wagon (thanks vote log)

That does not necessarily mean i am town ofc but his push against a specific team of me/lucy is absolutely forced, possibly made with the specific purpose of looking good to skitter

[Farkran]

...not really a flash but at least it's not a page full of my posts

[Farkran]

Ftr and tldr i'm still open to vote menalque too but i feel pooky is better

I think it's between those two for me today, other candidates aren't as appealing

[skitter30]

I don't know exactly why but this gives me scum vibes

Maybe it's how Day only really calls out Chara/suspects them when a wagon had already emerged on them. Something about the tone feels artificial/performative as well

Anyway I'm starting to think there's scum in my TR's and right now I'm looking at Day/Pooky.

Those posts are exactly why I'm voting him

~
I could maybe vote fark too