Newbie 2057: Mars! - End!

[skitter30]

oh i forgot that she was townreading me (that hard), right
yeah honestly that would be a point in keeping her alive for me (vs. you who most definitely was not)

and thanks :)

[skitter30]

There was also a second reason for my vote being on Pooky over someone else, because it means even if for some reason D1 voting runs until EoD, I doubt it but it's possible, We will at least get a solid elimination and read, because you should always eliminate D1 as it allows for discussion and analysis, you will possibly be able to read me better based on my vote and Pooky's flip. We don't want to tie and have No elimination do we now?

man ngl i still think this is townie lol

~
from the first ~2 pages knowing what we know now, i still think kaz pings super townie

another thing to me prevote checklist:
pooky's flip

[six pomegranate seeds]

ok that was less than i thought.
seeds if i owe you anything else would you mind requoting it please?

Could you walk me through your mindset on why you were sussing SAMCRO over everyone else?

[skitter30]

Atm, I see it unlikely that wheme and Pooky are w/w possible they are t/t or t/w

We have 2 scum so we should look and see who voted on scum and not, I see it as unlikely to early bus, mainly because it's a suicide move in such a small game

right, he thinks that voting on each other is bussing

[skitter30]

ok that was less than i thought.
seeds if i owe you anything else would you mind requoting it please?

Could you walk me through your mindset on why you were sussing SAMCRO over everyone else?

right, i knew i was missing something, sorry

basically it boiled down to me that he felt bravado-y and fairly fake, especially over the course of the pooky flip - he felt confident in a way that didn't feel natural to me. if you want greater detail let me reread the pooky flip and see what i was thinking

[six pomegranate seeds]

I would appreciate greater detail but you can also just give whatever analysis you think is helpful for you to game solve at this point. Rereading Kaz from you POV is helpful to me too.

[Kazyan]

Re: Andante kill: I was taking some heat yesterday, so it's totally possible that Wheme (or Skitter?) shot Andante in order to set me up. You said that most people didn't do nightkill analysis like you do, so framing someone with a nightkill would be more viable with you around. They couldn't have known that everyone would finally figure out that I'm town after the SAMCRO flip.

[skitter30]

man i actually really don't think 91 -> 96 -> 97 is partner for wheme/creative :/

pedit i'm kinda rereading the game just now apparently.
so i'll get there soon hopefully

[skitter30]

darn i screwed up the post tags; i had too many tabs open:

91 -> 96 -> 97

that should be better

[skitter30]

94 threw me way off

what exactly about 94 threw you off so much to change your read?

That was a sort of sharpish turn from "obv town" to "maybe not obv town"

I would prefer to not talk about it until later

for this whole sequence of posts to, like, make sense they had to have been planning the fake-claim from very, very, very early on. otherwise i actually think it's anti-partner-y

like ither they started teh game planning this out, or they're not aligned imo

[skitter30]

so you think he is scum? haha? i should vote him then and when he is town we can get you next creative

This also feels a bit fake

I think this is a decent starting vote for now:

VOTE: samcro

basically most of his posting on this page to me seems really over the top and like he's trying to be ~swagger-y~ without anything to back it up

and this is going to be unfortunate to say but i honestly still think creative's tone/posting on whatever this page was was townie
i feel like my early reads were totally backwards and i'm usually not that wrong but honestly rereading i'm still getting the same vibes i did at the time, even knowing all the flips, which is kinda weird and somewhat unhelpful

[skitter30]

i am vanilla townie which means i have no powers which means you can eliminate me and then get creative next, i am fine with that

like in retrospect he was serious but at the time this felt like a bluff

[six pomegranate seeds]

94 threw me way off

what exactly about 94 threw you off so much to change your read?

That was a sort of sharpish turn from "obv town" to "maybe not obv town"

I would prefer to not talk about it until later

for this whole sequence of posts to, like, make sense they had to have been planning the fake-claim from very, very, very early on. otherwise i actually think it's anti-partner-y

like ither they started teh game planning this out, or they're not aligned imo

Those series of posts is where I actually first TR wheme on my first read through. I thought he himself was softing invest there. I thought he was implying he was PR reading creative then when creative reveals he doesn't know which PRs there are in the game then maybe wheme changes his mind. But to me it does actually kind of make sense for both of them to breadcrumb an invest soft because they know it's 2C from the get go. And I thought that Wheme PR reading Creative on d1 as a partner gives him a great excuse to push him d2 but then ultimtely unvote and swing off creative and misvote on d2 while still accruing the town credit of having pushed him.

Honestly the thing you told me about how you would have been distancing from Creative if you knew he was going to fake claim invest makes total sense to me. Wheme was the one distancing the most right before the fake claim. Kaz had just parked vote but really didn't play up his sus that much - he actually was more like "I'll vote SAM / Creative in any order" which seems like a really bad way to bus your partner because it barely sounds townie lol.

[skitter30]

PookyTheMagicalBear (3): WhemeStar, CreativeName, GriffNotGraph

+ samcro + t3

I think samcro is prob scum?

Roughly like samcro > t3 > griff > wheme > creative in order of scumminess (p7 caveat etc)

man my reads were bad

[skitter30]

Those series of posts is where I actually first TR wheme on my first read through. I thought he himself was softing invest there. I thought he was implying he was PR reading creative then when creative reveals he doesn't know which PRs there are in the game then maybe wheme changes his mind. But to me it does actually kind of make sense for both of them to breadcrumb an invest soft because they know it's 2C from the get go. And I thought that Wheme PR reading Creative on d1 as a partner gives him a great excuse to push him d2 but then ultimtely unvote and swing off creative and misvote on d2 while still accruing the town credit of having pushed him.

Honestly the thing you told me about how you would have been distancing from Creative if you knew he was going to fake claim invest makes total sense to me. Wheme was the one distancing the most right before the fake claim. Kaz had just parked vote but really didn't play up his sus that much - he actually was more like "I'll vote SAM / Creative in any order" which seems like a really bad way to bus your partner because it barely sounds townie lol.

i don't think wheme was softing invest there, it looks like he thinks creative softed something

i think the scenarios are exactly:
-2c and they planned from like as soon they entered the scum pt that one of them was gonna try to fake-claim and this was the setup
- they're not aligned

[skitter30]

Ok so like ... this is why we announce e1 usually

Samcro can you walk me through why you voted pooky again?

VOTE: samcro

right, i was also looking for scum on the pooky wagon and thought that samcro's shenigans enabled it, so scumread him for it

[skitter30]

I feel like this kind of hedging is scum try to overcorrect for pushing too hard. Like, if Creative were town, I think he would continue to go hard on SAMCRO instead of doing this, since SAMCRO is basically confirmed scum at that point.

VOTE: Creative

this is a bit early for a bus vote given the invest claim we know is coming imo

[six pomegranate seeds]

This didn't dawn on me until this day to be honest but to me if I'm mafia in this setup and I see we have two goons then one of us should definitely fake claim something I think, especially if it's later revealed that its not the masons setup 3c. There's a 2/3 chance if its 1c or 2c that you get a free RR with no cc. If you know there's a jailkeeper you claim tracker if you know there's a cop you claim doctor.

[skitter30]

Does anyone have a friendly neighbour or incriminating tracker result btw?

this is weird in light of scum knowing it's 2c

[skitter30]

This didn't dawn on me until this day to be honest but to me if I'm mafia in this setup and I see we have two goons then one of us should definitely fake claim something I think, especially if it's later revealed that its not the masons setup 3c. There's a 2/3 chance if its 1c or 2c that you get a free RR with no cc. If you know there's a jailkeeper you claim tracker if you know there's a cop you claim doctor.

yeah but you might run into masons
it's worht a shot but it tends to look very suspect tbh given that people know that those setups are ripe for fake-claiming

[skitter30]

This is good, actually. It means that if we flip Creative and he's scum, then we have two almost-confirmed townies.

bizarre thing to write about a partner

[Kazyan]

In the posts the Skitter has highlighted, I do think it's +town for Whemestar, but the waffling is pretty laconic. I notice that it doesn't have the same emotional intensity as "am I being trolled", but I have no idea what that means. Thoughts?

Sorry for not being as 100% here right now as you two; I've just got a whole bunch of other non-Mafia tabs open.

[six pomegranate seeds]

they know it's 2C from the get go.

I realize now this isn't actually true they only knew 2c after T3 days.

It seems like you are reading yourself into SRing me skitter.

[skitter30]

WhemeStar, I don't understand how you think. What makes it so obvious that SAMCRO is confident town?

I can agree with him about creative

Scum aren’t so confident in fake reads that he will vote someone else just to get his point across.

Why do you scumread him?

honestly this doesn't feel partner-y either

[six pomegranate seeds]

This didn't dawn on me until this day to be honest but to me if I'm mafia in this setup and I see we have two goons then one of us should definitely fake claim something I think, especially if it's later revealed that its not the masons setup 3c. There's a 2/3 chance if its 1c or 2c that you get a free RR with no cc. If you know there's a jailkeeper you claim tracker if you know there's a cop you claim doctor.

yeah but you might run into masons
it's worht a shot but it tends to look very suspect tbh given that people know that those setups are ripe for fake-claiming

Well I didn't know that I didn't actually think through that mafia knows the setup until D3. I thought that Creative was just hoping there was no tracker to cc him.