Mini Theme 2194 : Draft Mafia | Endgame


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Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:52 pm

Post by Gypyx »

Votecount 4.2


Not_Mafia (0)
Mathblade (0)
Toogeloo (0)
mastina (2) BBmolla - Toogeloo
BBmolla (1) Not_Mafia
PookytheMagicalBear (0)
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Not Voting (5) : Mathblade - mastina - PookytheMagicalBear - Almost50 - VFP

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to force feed someone to death, day 4 ends in (expired on 2021-03-26 03:53:16)
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Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:21 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1899, MathBlade wrote:
In post 1898, Toogeloo wrote:VOTE: mastinaProbably not moving unless someone posts an ironclad case.
I do like that vote. It’s my prevailing theory Mastina intended to or ended up blocking BBMolla if she is scum.
I can prove I am town pretty definitively on every level here, MathBlade. (This is mostly to him, but
Pooky:
this also applies to you!)
Spoiler: Reason 1: Meta:
I have posted in this game literally every single day without fail, so much so that
in a game that features ridiculously short prod timers
, as an
original player
, I've not been prodded so much as once.

Every. single. day. I have posted here--often multiple times, coming back 2-3 times a day. I have been incredibly active in churning out content, which is there a plenty in my iso. While most of the more recent content is more mechanical in nature (and for justifiable reasons, mind you), there is still scumhunting involved and a clear progression in my reads and stances and why I have them.

What does all of this mean? This is literally the game that has held my
highest level of attention
out of all of my games. I literally am posting in this game first before I post in any of my others more often than not.

Why is this listed as meta?

Because you and Pooky have literally the
freshest of fresh
scum metas on me for the state scumastina is in. So fresh that me asking questions about it necessitates rhetorical questions. But to ask those rhetorical questions that I don't expect you to answer: how active was scumastina last? How strongly did scumastina play last? What was scumastina's level of interest, investment, and overall publicly presented content? Was she posting every day, multiple times, active and involved the entire time, or was she barely skirting by on the literal bare minimum?

Does this game in any way resemble that game?

I realize that you also have somewhat fresh scumastina meta from our micro together. I realize that this game has in common with recent scumastina games a rather heavy focus on mechanics--but is the overall play, the overall investment, the overall push, anywhere even remotely the same?

Bluntly: it isn't. This isn't scumastina, not even remotely. I've been town through and through for the entire game and it shows in my, consistent, presence in this game. I am not apathetic here. I have struggled with depression, I have struggled to get a gamesolve post-D2 (since from D3 onward I was running low on viable scumspects and even today I only have Molla as scum without knowing who his scumbuddy is), but in spite of those struggles, I have still been
trying
and putting in actual serious real effort here.

As just one example, back when you and Pooky were fighting, who was the player who was saying both of you were town? I was very very adamant that you were town, MathBlade, and that Pooky was town, too. Back when you were convinced Pooky was scum, I was convinced that he was town. While you eventually managed to change your read on him to town, I was always there saying as much.

Contrast my scumgames where I did as little as was humanly possible by and large.
Spoiler: Reason 2: Who would be my scumbuddy?
It is pretty damn obvious that you are town and that Pooky is town. So who's left for being scum?

I have pushed BBMolla as being scum the entire game--it can't be him.

I have given, fairly solid imo, reasons for why VFP should be conftown here, not only through the slot's holding of a doublevote, but also through the fact that the busdrive last night seems to, very clearly, be a spanner in the works of the scumteam's plans since if they had the busdriver, we almost certainly wouldn't have had no town death last night (as between a busdriver and a deflector, they could basically guarantee a kill on town by managing to combine the two).

That literally leaves only {Not_Mafia, Toogeloo, Almost50} as possible scumbuddies for me--and one of them, Toogeloo, is voting me, so it's almost definitely not him.

Do you think I am scum with Not_Mafia, or do you think I am scum with Almost50? Because for me to be scum you MUST think that one of the two is scum.
Spoiler: Reason 3: Motive (/Mechanics p1):
I never lie about my role as scum. You know this to be true.
I have said that I used my babysit action on BBMolla--this is, 100%, guaranteed to be the truth because I do not lie about my role action or the nature of my role. I definitely had a Babysit, and I definitely used it on BBMolla. You KNOW my methodology as scum so you KNOW that when I make a claim like this of having done it, I did it exactly as I said I did. I've never lied about my action as scum, ever, because of a strong belief that the truth is my greatest ally. After all, if I was tracked, followed, and/or rolecopped and the results didn't line up with my claim...that is opening me up to being eliminated off of a lie.

So I just don't lie.

Okay, so if you accept that I'm not lying about taking and using a babysit on BBMolla...the question then becomes: What is the motive?

As scum, there is no motive for this. As scum, with the PGO dead on D3, I would have every reason to believe no scum died N3. I would thus have every reason to believe that, come D4, we would be in mylo. Why would I take, and burn, the babysit? If I was concerned that town could use it to save someone after a mylo mislynch, I could pass it to scum. There would be two scumbuddies to pass it to. Or even if I was concerned, I could just...take it, and then...not use it. I didn't need to burn it on BBMolla as scum last night because doing so had no motive.

A babysit used by scum won't be giving the scum an extra death because it'd require scum to die and I wouldn't be vigged. A babysit used by scum COULD stop the scum kill accidentally, via redirect actions that, per Pizza being scum with a deflector role, scumastina would know to exist in the game.

Using the babysit as scum is thus, something that has no proscum motive and is, explicitly, an antiscum action.

Now contrast that with the motive to use it as town:
As town, I KNOW I was the N2 nightkill via your jailkeep of me.
To reiterate:
FACT: There was no town death N2.
FACT: The only claimed source to stop the N2 kill is your jailkeep of me, MathBlade.
Therefore, FACT: Your jailkeep of me stopped the scum nightkill.
FACT: I am town.
FACT: I therefore know that I didn't make the scum nightkill with it being blocked. (But more on that below.)
FACT: I therefore know that *I* was the N2 scum nightkill, that the scumteam TRIED TO KILL ME N2.
FACT: On D3, you stated you had passed me a protective role.
FACT: No other player on D3 claimed to be in possession of a protective role. I was the only one who claimed to have access to one.

CONCLUSION: Between me being the confirmed N2 scum nightkill, and me having the only claimed protective role left in the game after the two others were burned N2, it was incredibly likely I would be the N3 scum nightkill, both due to being the N2 scum nightkill and possessing a protection, with anyone not-me being killed having a risk I would save them and me being incredibly likely to be wide open to attack.

Thus, using my babysit on BBMolla as town has a very, very, VERY obvious, self-evident reason: a full belief that I was going to die N3 and wanting to take BBMolla down with me, bringing us to 7 alive today, and either in lylo with the main scum mislynch down IF Molla is town, or in the day before lylo with one scum dead from me taking them down with me.

There's zero scum motive in using a babysit; there is EVERY town motive in using the babysit.
Spoiler: Reason 4: Mechanics (part two)
For me to be scum requires me to have performed the N2 nightkill.

Only there's a fundamental problem with that:

In most scumteam combinations this game, I have a very strong aversion to making the scum nightkill.

Even IF you assume that I wouldn't want Pizza to make it (fair enough, that's plausible enough), again, what scumbuddies would I have that would make me want to make the nightkill?

Sure, with Pooky as my scumbuddy, I'd make it over him--but Pooky is conftown here.
Sure, with GreyICE as my scumbuddy, I'd make it over him--but GreyICE was out of the game before the end of D1, yet alone, N2. I would very much NOT make the nightkill over willow; I would send willow to perform the nightkill because willow was a much lower-profile player less likely to attract attention.
Sure, Almost50 MIGHT make me make the kill over him...but he wasn't in the game until D3, after N2, and thus, I couldn't decide to make the kill over him.
Toogeloo and Not_Mafia both run into the willow1 issue--I would send Toogeloo or Not_Mafia to perform the nightkill because Toogeloo and Not_Mafia were both much lower-profile players less likely to attract attention.

The ONLY slots in the game I would send myself over them to do the nightkill are...
BBMolla and shadowslug.

Shadowslug's slot I again feel has a reasonable chance of being conftown mechanically.

And BBMolla has been the slot I've pushed as scum since D1 (and he's done a lot of pushing of me, too, in turn).

So in short: there's nobody here who could be scum with me, who would make me make the N2 kill. Simply put: I wouldn't make the N2 nightkill here as scum.

I am, overall, fairly adverse to making the scum nightkill overall, and across my entire scum career if you want me to prove it I can give dozens upon dozens of examples where I preferred my scumbuddy/scumbuddies to make the kill rather than me. The times where I make the kill are, explicitly, exceptions to the general rule, in games where I felt that them making the kill was a much greater risk than me making the kill. Most of the time, it's my scumbuddies. Heck, you even have proof of this in my most recently completed scumgame. I sent Gypyx to do the kill, not me; not once, but in fact, two nights in a row, twice total.

I don't do the nightkill unless the game, situationally, specifically dictates that I should, and this game has every reason not to.
Spoiler: Reason 5: Mechanics, part 3:
Aside from that: there are no claimed protective roles for N3 other than me.

The scum kill from N3 is absent.

I claimed to use a babysitter action.

As I am not dead, that babysitter action should be a protect rather than a kill, saving a life rather than taking it.

I am literally the you of N2, of N3. Just as your jailkeep of me is the ONLY possible source of a lack of scum kill N2, my babysitter is the ONLY possible source of a lack of scum kill N3.

While I meant to use it as a kill on Molla, it is very likely, given VFP's claim of having busdriven you and Molla, that I ended up
saving your life
. Just as you saved my life N2, it is highly likely that I ended up saving your life N3 (albeit unintentionally).
I trust you to not skim and not engage on this in bad faith and to actually think it over, look at it, and give it actual serious thought and analysis but it should be pretty damn apparent that if you fucking mislynch me here you're literally doing the scum's jobs for them because I should be bloody conftown here.
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Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:56 am

Post by mastina »

(crickets chirping as tumbleweed rolls by) *cough*
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Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:29 am

Post by MathBlade »

Sorry I am at work and I can’t give your case the thought it deserves at work. So yeah tumbleweeds.

Unless you’d like me to just vote you like my gut says?
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Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:49 am

Post by VFP »

I read it, but half of it is meta so nothing to really contribute on this side to it.
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Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:43 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I think so far from what I gather, since Toog won’t claim to confirm this VFP can’t be scum without scum having intentionally killed Pizza because Toog says they didn’t do anything that could redirect kill etc so if we take them at their word VFP can’t be scum.

VFP being scum would mean that scum would either have to use deflects improperly or intentional and I think scum would ask if they had a bus driver + deflection setup.
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Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:46 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Therefore VFP scum would require a Mastina scum or someone like her (maybe a Pooky if he tries hard as scum) so I am starting off with VFP truthtelling for now that they swapped me and BBMolla.
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Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:50 pm

Post by BBmolla »

In post 1904, VFP wrote:I read it, but half of it is meta so nothing to really contribute on this side to it.
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Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:52 pm

Post by Almost50 »

I'll wait for Mathblade to finish his analysis to see if it makes sense to me.

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Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1847, Gypyx wrote:
In post 1846, mastina wrote:MOD: Say a busdriver, Player A, busdrove players B and C.
What would happen if this role deflected all actions from player D (neither b or c) onto player B? Would they land on player B, or would they land on player C?
What would happen if this role deflected all actions from player B to player C? Would the busdrive still work?
a deflector, would in that case, deflect actions towards player C

in the second case, the bus drive takes priority, so all actions targeting C would go to B
So rewriting this replacing names to make it easier and make sure I understand.

Say a busdriver, VFP, bus drove myself and BBMolla.
Case 1) is Deflected all actions from D onto Myself/BBMolla >> end result actions submitted on D deflects onto BBMolla/myself
Case 2) deflect Myself/BBMolla elsewhere say to E >> end result is actions submitted BBMolla/myself to E as bus drive would take priority.

So if we are in case 2 and scum said anything targeting me should go Pizza. Then anything targeting BBMolla goes to Pizza.
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Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Please please if I mess up tell me I hate bus drivers and deflectors with a passion
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Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:59 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Then scum in that world shoot Mastina again and Pizza dies because of Mastina babysit
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Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:00 pm

Post by MathBlade »

This leaves two unknowns:
BBMolla getting no result when tracking Mastina
And Pooky not dying from hider
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Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:04 pm

Post by MathBlade »

from the wiki for hider
Some moderators treat kills performed on a Hider's target as being copied onto the Hider, rather than having the Hider's death trigger off the death of the hidee. This would change the result if, e.g., a Doctor was targeting the hidee directly (the variant Hider would die in that situation, whereas a Normal Hider would survive).
This would mean that Pooky could survive as the babysitter wiki says will die. Not is killed

A Babysitter may target a player each night to protect them. That player will be protected from one kill aimed at that player directly. However, if a kill succeeds on the Babysitter (rather than the Babysitter's target), the Babysitter's target will die along with the Babysitter.
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Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:05 pm

Post by MathBlade »

However Mastina didn’t die and her death would be required for babysitter to fire so that means Deflection actions to Pizza is out.

This means that both Mastina babysit and VFP Busdrive both can’t be valid imho
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Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:06 pm

Post by MathBlade »

The exception would be Toog claiming Doc on Mastina which I don’t see.
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Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:08 pm

Post by MathBlade »

But see I am also lost on then how the kill happens without VFP lying about who was bus driven.

In short unless one of the people unaffected by the bus drive are liars I don’t see how we get this result in a scum Mastina or town Mastina world.

And one of them has to be true
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Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:34 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

VFP could be scum here. I was thinking about how shady they were with the unwnd double vote yesterday.

Also, of note, mod mentioned they had to delay day start due to resolution issues with night actions.

I think taking into account the 1v1 with unwnd and mastina though yesterday, I have to stick with mastina as my vote for now. But your analysis could be all for naught if someone is lying about an action.
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Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:39 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I really don’t see how.

Let’s assume town in general aren’t lying about their actions/targets.

Then scum would have to have intentionally shot Pizza.

Otherwise how does Pizza die?

What we’re likely looking for is a busdriver on the scum side or one of Pooky/Mastina/BBMolla are lying.

What makes the most sense mechanically is Mastina blocks me which gets redirected to BBMolla but I don’t think that jives with Mastina play though.
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Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:40 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

I think analysis of pack passing might be useful here as well.

Pizza passed their night 1 packs to you, Mathblade.

Shadowslug/VFP had a Double Vote and a Bus Drive, one of which they could have started with in their packs, or both passed to them. Molla would have had to have passed one or both to them.

We've had multiple 3 spot passes the first couple nights and then a 2 spot pass last night.
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Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:41 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

Some things to chew on. Feel free to expand on the passing thing, if you think it helps too.
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Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:44 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1920, Toogeloo wrote:Some things to chew on. Feel free to expand on the passing thing, if you think it helps too.
I think that thing to chew on is I don’t think VFP passes me what VFP did as scum. That and the bus drive I don’t see them intentionally passing this pack to me if Pizza was intentionally killed which would be required for VFP scum.
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Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:13 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Toog I am sorry if you want to elim Mastina today I am going to need you to claim.

I don’t see why you’d be scumreading Mastina so heavily here.

We have BBMolla who was likely fucked with when that block was meant for me.

We have a likely bus driver (or other redirect mechanic besides VFP) in NM, you,Pooky,and A50.

BBMolla if scum, gets guiltied the moment his partner (if any) flips.
Mastina doesn’t make sense as scum with the babysit claim. It’s possible she directly blocked me but then she would have to be scum with BBMolla and shoot Pizza intentionally.

You are possible here as bus driver since all you’re saying is your word.
Pooky could be scum fishing for a reason for the kill on Pizza but I don’t think he as scum does that with hider.
A50’s claim is kinda sus but it fits with the setup so far.

Can you please give me something why Mastina here?
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade
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Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:43 pm

Post by Toogeloo »

Ignore that for now then.

Just based on okay, what's your PoE?
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Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:48 pm

Post by BBmolla »

@Mod: I am sorry to do this but I need to request replacement.


Stepping away for a while.
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