Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[clidd]

Hum..

Haven't finished the reread, but: VOTE: Amélie

For me she was very likely town based on aggressiveness and the expression of thought, but after rereading (with more attention) her scumgame:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I noticed that it is not out of her scumrange, which is curious, because I played in that game, but I thought she was different here.

[clidd]

I'm not sure if that is the hammer but quickly before I go to work, last words are that I think Dripping is probably town at this point. This is too suicidal. If that wasn't the hammer, we need to think a bit before doing anything. They are being very suicidal and I just think at this point, it comes from town.

If DrippingGoofball is scum and that was the hammer, I'm happy to call Dannflor scum for a hammer out of nowhere. Solon's vote is horrible but that was minimegabyte and she was a solid townread of mine. I don't like VFB but I could see them being scum and that's it. Back to the cop on me request please.

And this is just, ugh.

[clidd]

VOTE: Lotus

Stop voting town.

[LlamaFluff]

Those arent answering my questions, but I do like the call on Ame 1375. Please answer my questions.

[clidd]

Its been three years so lets do this...

Everyone needs to in their next post give a brief summary of the game so far and an explanation of their current vote. I dont want essays but enough for me to get a better idea of what happened in real time than reading 60 pages in a night which im doing now. Think one paragraph for each.

Unvote

I think you probably have already taken a sample of the game.

Regarding my vote, it is basically a reevaluation based on the Vfp inerpretattions, which helped me deal with the bias in being reciprocating her townread in me, and the comparison of her scumgame with the current game, where I noticed that she is not out of her scumrange.

pedit: Are you talking with me?

[clidd]

Still catching up but first entirely confusing thing that needs clarification:

Update:

{April Ludgate} {bugspray}
{geraintm} {RLotus}
{AliceK}
{MiniMegabyte}
{Klick}
{Amélie} {Gretchen}
{HypoSoc}
{DrippingGoofball}
{Da Dude}

Update:

{April Ludgate} {bugspray}

{geraintm}

{MiniMegabyte}

↑

{RLotus}

↓

{Klick} {AliceK}

↓

{Amélie} {Gretchen}

{HypoSoc}

{DrippingGoofball}

{Da Dude}

Alice and Lotus never posted between these two lists. What happened?

I reevaluated the slots and noticed that they were higher than they should have been.

[LlamaFluff]

Its been three years so lets do this...

Everyone needs to in their next post give a brief summary of the game so far and an explanation of their current vote. I dont want essays but enough for me to get a better idea of what happened in real time than reading 60 pages in a night which im doing now. Think one paragraph for each.

Unvote

I think you probably have already taken a sample of the game.

Regarding my vote, it is basically a reevaluation based on the Vfp inerpretattions, which helped me deal with the bias in being reciprocating her townread in me, and the comparison of her scumgame with the current game, where I noticed that she is not out of her scumrange.

pedit: Are you talking with me?

Am talking to you. All I did was just check game state to make sure I wasnt replacing into a doomed slot (even though only time I did that I actually setup a win) before getting in. Since then have quickly read up.

I want to know your (and everyones) basic summary of the game, why you are voting where you are, read on Dann/DGB and anything else relevant. Even if not replacing in getting the Dann/DGB reads from everyone is important because thats pretty critical for today.

[clidd]

Also I want a few more detailed thoughts on each other from the following pairings which I am really interested in at around page 30

Geranitum-Clidd (Alice weigh in with thoughts on both)
Dann-VFP

Gera is probably town, he hasn't changed much since our last game together. I remember questioning his playstyle approach, but it was not a very productive discussion (he was town). His scumread on me here makes sense for town!Gera to think imo, just like town!Bug (your predecessor). Alice is a slot that I don’t have an expressive read in addition to the impression that the fact that she isn't being touched/discussed is similar to Hypo’s situation on D1 (until the moment I drew attention to the slot and a herd effect occurred, causing him to be miseliminated), which makes me think that she has the potential to be a lhf (low hanging fruit that scum don't want to push), although I have not evaluated whether her behavior fits into a scum agenda (probably not).

pedit: DGB is likely town by AtE/bad town play and Dann is town because I liked his posts when he replaced in, although he hasn’t been so towny recently.

[clidd]

My context with Gera (discussion) here:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12588391

Here:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12592302

And here:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12593928

We spent a long time in that game arguing, because I found his approach strange, but I did not immediately conclude that it was necessarily scummy.

Here I'm interpreting his play in the same way, considering that it seems similar to me.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

I mean I understand it's not the most convincing coming from the slot who is being wagoned and who hasn't even read everything yet

but the fact that there's no even like... side discussions going on, or even people asking me questions or telling me to look out for certain things as I catch up just makes it feel like everyone is complacent with the game state

and that's not the best sign

quick impressions up through page 13

I think the interactions with entrapta are probably town indicative for april? The progression from maybe scum to town to back to scum after the replace out feels very natural. And I did get the sense April was genuinely trying to sort the slot. They reacted surprisingly mellow towards the early vote on them which I think is town indicative as well? Not a super strong read here as I don't think the slot has done much else alignment indicative for them. The IC claim is obviously fake but that's par for the course for april

HypSoc's #290 I thought was scummy at first but after dwelling on it for a bit I think I've come around to the opposite opinion. It felt like the type of post scum makes to get analysis out there that really isn't all that useful in the end, especially because taking April's IC claim seriously is dubious at best. But I don't expect HypSoc to know that necessarily and spending *so* much time analyzing it leans towards transparent town that latched onto something rather than scum trying to appear useful. I have to say I didn't like their "your slot has been the most suspected so far" post on my replacing in though because it like... absolves all responsibility off of them and like prods me in a super passive way. HypSoc, I'm interested in how you've been reading my slot/my predecessors and what you think of the people wagoning me. From your ISO it's hard to tell what stance you have exactly on me.

btw I'm willing to bet most people on my wagon are town, I might prove myself wrong with that as I gather more reads, but in situations where a townie is widely scum read and run up with little to no resistance, it's not because scum are actively campaigning for the elimination, but because town are and scum don't want to get in the way. I'd look for scum more in the slots that are either soft defending me or that are open to my wagon but voting/pushing elsewhere, with maybe like 1 scum on my wagon at its peak. I've just been looking at the VCs and I see scummy slots like Mini vote parked on bugspray while I'm being run up and I don't think that's a coincidence. The lack of counter wagon also probably points towards scum just lying low and not really doing anything. After all, with the game state as it appears to be idk why they'd have to do anything. and leading the charge of a town wagon D1 and taking the cred damage for doing so is really only something I could see a scum player with the caliber of April doing (not that I think April is scum here)

I don't think clidd is noticeably trying to drive any agenda by obviously not cohering exactly to his reads list

I mean he's obviously trying to fish for reactions or do *something* that he thinks will help solve the game

this feels like a case of getting side tracked by a townie doing outrageous things (my favorite nsg quote)

clidd, why are you townreading mini?

town reading HypoSoc is probably premature, I need a lot more from them

don't particularly like April not being around, nor their self vote in #520. It doesn't feel borne out of emotion nor out of driving a point/read home like I'd expect from town!April but meh

but can be explained by April simply being disengaged from this game

bugspray has the type of tone that I just have a really hard time not reading as towny

posts like #566 feels like the type of very simple/flippant justification that town is more likely to throw out there on a whim than scum. granted I don't know bugspray at all as a player but I'm pocketed

something like

[bugspray, clidd]
[alice, dgb, Klick]
[gretchen, rlotus]
[amelie]
[mini, geraintm]

this is a very loose approximation of where I'm at right now. April excluded until I get a chance to properly interact with her. I'm sort of in a weird position where I think a lot of the people currently pushing my slot are town and scum lie somewhere in the people defending me. However, I'm thinking the slots that have been hard defending more lean more towards town [rlotus, klick] for example while scum is *most likely* to lie in slots that are either soft defending me or not taking a strong stance either way, for example [mini, geraintm]

VOTE: geraintm

Why is that unlikely?
One is Flavorleaf, extremely active and everyone thinks he is likely town for some unknown reason and the other two are people that barely talk.

individually, sure

but mafia are usually a little more self aware and don't all like to be clumped up in the same direction. at least more experienced teams (and particularly any team April would be a part of) would like work to not associate with each other so blatantly by all pushing one wagon that isn't even necessarily needed.

@ Dann - i think i said earlier that i thought you had done the best you could replacing into the game considering the posistion you were in, but man...3 votes on one page on 3 different people looks bad. why must you do things like that?

you vote Rlotus for no obvious reason.
half an hour later you provide a reads list, rlotus is high in it and you vote someone else
half an hour later you vote for someone else who you had in your 2nd towniest tier?

I have felt that I have a nebulous grasp on this game given I replaced in like 48 hours ago. I'm also not as careful with my vote as most people. I voted Alice because my most confident town read in Bugspray was voting there and wanted to start a wagon. and I didn't really have a better place to put it at the time.

Rlotus I originally felt fell into the camp of "people soft defending me and could be scum" but then I reread and don't feel bad about his posting

I dunno I'm generally a pretty self aware poster and if I wanted to fake consistency with my reads / votes I certainly could

it's not like voting rlotus or alice was some desperate gamble to keep me alive. I'm really just trying to generate information because from my pov there's so many inactive posters or people who are just determined to give me nothing and that makes it really hard to figure this game out

VOTE: minimegabyte

That's interesting vote. Can you elaborate why you think mmb is Mafia?

I kinda already have if you've read my posts but I'll be more specific.

Half of his ISO isn't content, it's promising to provide content or remarking on things that really have no bearing on anyone's alignment in this game. They post vaguely about how they "don't like how quickly that wagon formed on Da Dude" with no further explanation. Why? What makes quick wagons bad? What makes Da Dude town? You would think a townie who thinks something like this would spend more energy defending the slot or elaborating on why the quickness of the wagon means bad. Later, they even say "go ahead and eliminate Da Dude I just won't be on the wagon." It kinda reads like blatant "I know the person being wagoned is town so I don't wanna be on it but also I don't care if it goes through." Which is a scum agenda.

Yeah the IC claim is probably fake but I thought I'd put it out there anyway since some people have taken it seriously. It's not alignment indicative for April to make fake claims like that.

DGB could be scum. They haven't been particularly gungho about pushing anything, besides a couple weak posts here and there going after me.

HypoSoc, I go back and forth on, I *think* I've settled on their focus of the IC claim being town indicative? I also scum read their posting style but realize it might be just that, a posting style. meh, I wish I had something more solid here

seriously, I think his consistently transparent posting this game wrt his reads is towny

at the same time he seems to be thinking things through and I can track some sort of thorough line of thought process through his posts

his votes feel a lot more to me like "let's see what happens here" then "ooh I can vote this inconspicuously"

Posts that I liked from Dann/makes me think that he's coming from a town mentality/is town ^

[LlamaFluff]

So you think this game has four informational town PRs? Maybe again its been that ive been away from the site for too long, but I cant even think of many large games that have that.

You are missing a very critical post in that Dann thing too. Where he went from "Hyp is probably town (943)" to voting him two hours later (1009). I do realize im being a bit obvious as to one of my picks, but yeah thats very bad.

[clidd]

I do think that there is scum among PRs, but my reads don't point to where.

If I had to guess, I would say that Solon enters as a candidate by PoE.

I don't think Dann saying that a slot is town and then voting for the same slot is a scum indicator, but you probably have something else on mind about that.

[LlamaFluff]

Yep. If DGB wasnt N1 only this changes. As it stands I am trying to figure out how to manipulate what occurs without showing cards. As previously noted, I spent a lot of time in game reviews trying to forcibly break games and that mindset still exists. Again its just me thinking, but Tracker/Watcher were always two of my favorite roles to give to the scum team as its essentially a weaker version of role cop or vanilla cop.

Again its probably a meta thing, but in the way back "Naive" was not typically a role and that is throwing me off a bit for if its expected and how it balances. If investigative you usually got Deputy or straight "Backup X"

[clidd]

Well, I'm weak in mechanical knowledge, so I'm probably not going to be useful to you in that regard.

But I'm interested to hear if you have any ideas by setup spec.

[LlamaFluff]

Literally the only reason I am not already pushing for Dann to die though is the "setup incompetence" tell he dropped that has me a bit worried. Works a whole lot better in Open games, but could probably be applied here. He essentially in major trouble if he is scum either way though, I think any correct lynch ends any hope he has of surviving to endgame if scum.

Too many investigative roles. One of them has to be scum. Gunsmith has me on edge too, as that tends to mean there is a counter to it one side or another. This can mean a vig (false positive) or a scum role that tests negative (Godfather or maybe if flavor heavy ninja). Otherwise why not make it a straight up cop? Need to sober up and really start trying to see what fits, but scum would need to be stacked in order for this to be fair given what I know so far. Again its old meta, but heavy swing (lots of PRs) is typically frowned upon. I think we are at absolutely zero chance all claimed roles are town. Its just about seeing if scum screwup and kill one that makes it obvious who is lying. If there is a vig, I still say they claim because its probably a forced win.

[LlamaFluff]

Lets just do this for now though and say if you think DGB is town (or want to push DGB/Dann to tomorrow) join in

Vote Ame

[RLotus]

I'm not sure if that is the hammer but quickly before I go to work, last words are that I think Dripping is probably town at this point. This is too suicidal. If that wasn't the hammer, we need to think a bit before doing anything. They are being very suicidal and I just think at this point, it comes from town.

If DrippingGoofball is scum and that was the hammer, I'm happy to call Dannflor scum for a hammer out of nowhere. Solon's vote is horrible but that was minimegabyte and she was a solid townread of mine. I don't like VFB but I could see them being scum and that's it. Back to the cop on me request please.

And this is just, ugh.

Which part is just ugh?

[RLotus]

Add this to a long list of games where I fucked up a PR.

I'm

Night 1

Psychologist

and I investigated the NK'd player.

Dannflor is scum PR, put two and two together, bye, see you all in the dead thread.

VOTE: DGB

Oh I forgot to mention when I was explaining why DGB is scum to solon. DGB simultaneously concludes that they've been tracked to the NK and that Dann is a scum PR. DGB is all oh so unlucky I investigated the NK and Dann tracked me, but if they think Dann is scum PR why do they think they've been tracked? And why do they think that Dann needs to be a PR at all if he is just scum?

Where is the town thought process here?

[RLotus]

Oh I forgot to mention when I was explaining why DGB is scum to solon.

VFP rather***

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not sure if that is the hammer but quickly before I go to work, last words are that I think Dripping is probably town at this point. This is too suicidal. If that wasn't the hammer, we need to think a bit before doing anything. They are being very suicidal and I just think at this point, it comes from town.

If DrippingGoofball is scum and that was the hammer, I'm happy to call Dannflor scum for a hammer out of nowhere. Solon's vote is horrible but that was minimegabyte and she was a solid townread of mine. I don't like VFB but I could see them being scum and that's it. Back to the cop on me request please.

And this is just, ugh.

Which part is just ugh?

This is also not answering any of my questions about summarizing the game and reads. Also do you not see how essentially they are calling the possibility Dann-scum implied a fake tracker result on DGB-scum who immediately gave up? If Amelie is scum its probably with exactly one of DGB/Dann given how hard they are reaching there.

Seriously if everyone can give a good synopsis of what has happened so far that can only exist as a good point in time pin where we can see where players are seeing things differently. I think you are a VI, but still want to hear what you have to say.

[RLotus]

A quick version from memory
Day 1
April calls Entrapta and Gretchen scum

Entrapta gets frustrated and reps out

People think this is scummy and Entrapta's replacement da dude almost dies

Da dude reps out to Dann, dann projects town

gretchen gets pushed and claims, still almost dies

klick(who repped out into biped) says gretchen's role makes sense with theirs

Hypo gets wagoned and dies

Day 2
Dann aggressively votes for DGB, it is later implied that dann has some sort of guilty on DGB, DGB claims psychologist

DGB's wagon builds and they start acting defeatist

Several people find this behavior towny, the votes shift onto amelie including three PR claims (Dann, DGB, gretchen)

The votes shift back to DGB (for their lack of cooperation I suppose?)

DGB wagon falls apart once again

[RLotus]

Also do you not see how essentially they are calling the possibility Dann-scum implied a fake tracker result on DGB-scum who immediately gave up?

Oh, I figured they meant if DGB is town not scum.

[geraintm]

Quick post.

Day 1 crap show, townie got eliminated.

Day 2
Guilty on dripping goofball
It feels weird
I go through the day 1 wagon and vote clidd. They are very very chill about it.
Whole bunch of power roles are out and about.

Thats my summary

[clidd]

Literally the only reason I am not already pushing for Dann to die though is the "setup incompetence" tell he dropped that has me a bit worried. Works a whole lot better in Open games, but could probably be applied here. He essentially in major trouble if he is scum either way though, I think any correct lynch ends any hope he has of surviving to endgame if scum.

Too many investigative roles. One of them has to be scum. Gunsmith has me on edge too, as that tends to mean there is a counter to it one side or another. This can mean a vig (false positive) or a scum role that tests negative (Godfather or maybe if flavor heavy ninja). Otherwise why not make it a straight up cop? Need to sober up and really start trying to see what fits, but scum would need to be stacked in order for this to be fair given what I know so far. Again its old meta, but heavy swing (lots of PRs) is typically frowned upon. I think we are at absolutely zero chance all claimed roles are town. Its just about seeing if scum screwup and kill one that makes it obvious who is lying. If there is a vig, I still say they claim because its probably a forced win.

Good analysis.

The problem I have is to be able to locate who is scum among the claims, because nobody is acting in an obviously scummy way, but I agree with you that it may be a matter of time before the pool of investigators shrinks and reports who is lying. I haven't been considering the vig hypothesis so far, but I also agree that a claim, if any, would be good.

[clidd]

Lets just do this for now though and say if you think DGB is town (or want to push DGB/Dann to tomorrow) join in

Vote Ame

Yeah, Amélie is a good counter-wagon.

If Amélie is scum, by the way, that makes Vfp likely to be town, considering that he has been pushing her for a decent time.