Newbie 2059 - Scummer's Baking Championship (Baked Over)

[WhemeStar]

Mine

[WhemeStar]

Stay ez

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im so bad at this :<

[WhemeStar]

Pooky cabd needs a penalty for cheating.

[WhemeStar]

Also pooky what are your reads

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm just sheeping skitter on Andante rn

[JacksonVirgo]

I think gm's 676 is incredibly townie tbh

I keep forgetting to give that a read

[JacksonVirgo]

Whoooooooo!
(I didn't know you two were together!)

Yeah
It took a small while to get accepted aha, it's exciting and terrifying at the same time.

[JacksonVirgo]

@Skitter, mind adding your thoughts on this before I say anything about it.

I think once he realized the deadline was longer he was willing to switch votes ?

Except that wasn't it at all I believe. It was that they voted me simply because they wanted a wagon that wasn't Andante. Could be remembering wrong as well

[JacksonVirgo]

Responses in

Bolded Pink

Spoiler:

You've had like 12 top scumreads

i disagree. he thought there was a scum was between me and jv. and pushed ahri as another propsoing 2 scum. only read changed when wheme came in and acted scummy which 3 ppl have said which i started then andante said something then jv did.

He was also calling me and pooky scum and within you and jv and also ahri

And i dont think his progressions on any of these has been good

Why do u townread him

Okay so let me explain... these reactions and interaction in my opinion are doubtful to be mafia.

You have to step back and look at the bigger picture and think about on why and how Andante is reacting like the way he is. Does he do this as scum? If he was town, what would his town reaction be? Is there any bias? And etc. Questions that can help guide alignment issues toward the general overview.

Conceptual Context

As seen in my analysis of Pooky, it was so certain to Pooky that Andante was towny. And now just these interactions make it seem that Andante could flip town. Andante pushes Ahri for the lack of contribution, you come out and defend. Then HoG does some weird shit in the back. Both you and Ahri go hard at it against Andante. JV joins some time later. Pooky happens to sheep your vote. Wheme comes and finds a 'scummy' thing of Andante.

So you're saying that Pooky town-treading Andante is indicative of them being Town or that their interactions and what they said specifically is town!AI.

These events led it to the synopsis of how two the mafia or atleast 1 (and the other is focused on someone else) is definitely on the push of Andante. This aggression comes out of no where as soon as Andante starts getting annoyed. By game mechanics, there is less than 25% chance this could be a bus and this is based on a personal probability chance of how there is more likely to flip town with more members of this village pushing them.

So are you saying the wagon has scum on it, or the push of the wagon. For example, I am on the push but not the wagon. And I am not asking if your SR is on the push/wagon, I am asking if you think scum in general would be pushing it even if you are wrong on your SR's on me/pooky for example. Also can I ask how you came to the conclusion it's >75% chance that it's not a bus? I ask this because you say that it's by game mechanics so you would have put thought into this if it's an actual calculation of sorts.

They flip town. What happens next? There is 3 different theories you could play out if and only if they flip town. 1) Whole rest of the second day focused on night kill and day 1 information; game doesn't move that much 2) Game moves but only to a certain point if there is new info with night kill or any PR info is outted. 3) Game moves on completely focusing on the future in more hypotheticals. Number 2 is the most probable to happen as PRs are most likely to be gotten new info and night kill will tell us info on who might or might not have done that.

I don't want to and am going to actively refuse to do anything with game plans, as that benefits scum as they can choose the NK that best forces their agenda into play. Although you say the game won't advance that much on a town flip, what town flip (assuming we elim a town today) would in your honest opinion and why would that change more than a town flip on Andante. It's day 1, we're not going to get any solid information unless we flip a scum.

They flip scum. What happens next? There is 4 different theories you could play out if and only if they flip scum. 1) Scumread me because I was the hardest defender. 2) Scumread HoG because of their lack of contribution and attention to Andante (inactive) 3) Scumread Pooky for defending them until an influence of vote happened. 4) Theorize an 'elaborate' bus could have happened. From your perspective 1 and 4 seem the most probable. 3 coincides with 4 as we got pooky voting Andante now.

I don't want to and am going to actively refuse to do anything with game plans, as that benefits scum as they can choose the NK that best forces their agenda into play. Although you say the game won't advance that much on a town flip, what town flip (assuming we elim a town today) would in your honest opinion and why would that change more than a town flip on Andante. It's day 1, we're not going to get any solid information unless we flip a scum.

Now you answer me, playing that scenario if the flip scum, who is their Mafia partner? That will be hard to tell. I know I am town and honestly I wouldn't know as I would instantly jump into that conclusion of theory 2 and 4. I doubt game will progress. I guess it will be an "info vote" but there are far better votes than someone who has contributed and tried answering questions while some haven't and deflected on others. Lack of contribution from Ahri, Pooky, HoG, and Wheme. The only reason I am really not keen on voting JV is because the level of contribution. Me, Skitter, and JV all have been contributing and right now being it day one, I like to find that in a more later state of mind where we solved scum between the more people who haven't said anything. Even if they are town, they are lacking actual town members like us any town.

If they flip scum, their partner could theoretically be anyone and it's hard to make any decisions pre-flip and pre-analysis of said flip so nobody can honestly answer this question with confidence but if anyone it would be you who is seemingly pushing an agenda of them getting bussed earlier and you hard-pushing against them. That on it's own is not indicative but that in addition to my read already on you that would be my push. Can you see why that seems like an agenda from my pov though, honest question.

[GrandpaMo]

Responses in this

orange color.

Responses in

Bolded Pink

Spoiler:

You've had like 12 top scumreads

i disagree. he thought there was a scum was between me and jv. and pushed ahri as another propsoing 2 scum. only read changed when wheme came in and acted scummy which 3 ppl have said which i started then andante said something then jv did.

He was also calling me and pooky scum and within you and jv and also ahri

And i dont think his progressions on any of these has been good

Why do u townread him

Okay so let me explain... these reactions and interaction in my opinion are doubtful to be mafia.

You have to step back and look at the bigger picture and think about on why and how Andante is reacting like the way he is. Does he do this as scum? If he was town, what would his town reaction be? Is there any bias? And etc. Questions that can help guide alignment issues toward the general overview.

Conceptual Context

As seen in my analysis of Pooky, it was so certain to Pooky that Andante was towny. And now just these interactions make it seem that Andante could flip town. Andante pushes Ahri for the lack of contribution, you come out and defend. Then HoG does some weird shit in the back. Both you and Ahri go hard at it against Andante. JV joins some time later. Pooky happens to sheep your vote. Wheme comes and finds a 'scummy' thing of Andante.

So you're saying that Pooky town-treading Andante is indicative of them being Town or that their interactions and what they said specifically is town!AI.

Response:

Not only pooky. I later on say "and these interactions make it seem that Andante could flip town." Since, I scumread pooky and think they are probable scum I use it as a hook for an example of scum just sheeped and BWed on a vote. It is more of Pooky's behavior with Skitter and how that influenced a vote on Andante. I hope that makes sense because I really have organized in my head but maybe losing you on text, I apologize.

These events led it to the synopsis of how two the mafia or atleast 1 (and the other is focused on someone else) is definitely on the push of Andante. This aggression comes out of no where as soon as Andante starts getting annoyed. By game mechanics, there is less than 25% chance this could be a bus and this is based on a personal probability chance of how there is more likely to flip town with more members of this village pushing them.

So are you saying the wagon has scum on it, or the push of the wagon. For example, I am on the push but not the wagon. And I am not asking if your SR is on the push/wagon, I am asking if you think scum in general would be pushing it even if you are wrong on your SR's on me/pooky for example. Also can I ask how you came to the conclusion it's >75% chance that it's not a bus? I ask this because you say that it's by game mechanics so you would have put thought into this if it's an actual calculation of sorts.

Response:

Push/Wagon; mostly the same thing. You were still willing to change your votes and was still down to vote Andante. Everyone in this lobby was willing to vote Andante besides me, HoG (because of afk), and Andante themselves. And maybe Fizz actually. Now thinking about it, where is she? When I was referring the push, I meant the total aggression the whole lobby against Andante that really made scum think of "hey this is an easy ML, let us sheep!" But then I have paranoid thoughts on why would just mafia sheep like that? Make it so obvious for themselves? That is why I thought of a bus really. I explained how I came up with 75%; I said it was based on personal probability, not an actual calculation. I can if you want actually make the real calculation:

Let us assume you and wheme would have intneded to vote Andante and that counts as a scum case on Andante.

Let us assume HoG is townreading Andante.

Let us assume Fizz is townreading Andante.

Let us assume Grandpa is townreading Andante.

The rest scumreads Andante.

That leaves us with 9 players. 2 of which are mafia: 9/2

6 of those players would have scumread Andante.

Now what is the probability that two of mafia lies in those 6 players: 2/6 =

33%

Now what is the probability that one of that lies in those defending them, assuming Andante is scum: 1/3 =

33%

I may have messed up somewhere in the math so please go ahead correct me or point out any mistakes... It's been a while since I did mafia calculations.

They flip town. What happens next? There is 3 different theories you could play out if and only if they flip town. 1) Whole rest of the second day focused on night kill and day 1 information; game doesn't move that much 2) Game moves but only to a certain point if there is new info with night kill or any PR info is outted. 3) Game moves on completely focusing on the future in more hypotheticals. Number 2 is the most probable to happen as PRs are most likely to be gotten new info and night kill will tell us info on who might or might not have done that.

I don't want to and am going to actively refuse to do anything with game plans, as that benefits scum as they can choose the NK that best forces their agenda into play. Although you say the game won't advance that much on a town flip, what town flip (assuming we elim a town today) would in your honest opinion and why would that change more than a town flip on Andante.

It's day 1, we're not going to get any solid information unless we flip a scum.

Response:

I mean you are right. But game plans should be a game of discussion later on. NK doesn't benefit scum at all. It is in their wincon to always kill night one. I feel as though the game may advance no matter what Andante flips. I honestly also don't understand your question, so if you could maybe reiterate that. And response to your bolded, are you assuming that Andante flips scum? In my context, I layed out when they flip town what will town do.

They flip scum. What happens next? There is 4 different theories you could play out if and only if they flip scum. 1) Scumread me because I was the hardest defender. 2) Scumread HoG because of their lack of contribution and attention to Andante (inactive) 3) Scumread Pooky for defending them until an influence of vote happened. 4) Theorize an 'elaborate' bus could have happened. From your perspective 1 and 4 seem the most probable. 3 coincides with 4 as we got pooky voting Andante now.

I don't want to and am going to actively refuse to do anything with game plans, as that benefits scum as they can choose the NK that best forces their agenda into play. Although you say the game won't advance that much on a town flip, what town flip (assuming we elim a town today) would in your honest opinion and why would that change more than a town flip on Andante. It's day 1, we're not going to get any solid information unless we flip a scum.

Response:

Same response? I hope that means you were taking account in both perspectives I saw this in.

Now you answer me, playing that scenario if the flip scum, who is their Mafia partner? That will be hard to tell. I know I am town and honestly I wouldn't know as I would instantly jump into that conclusion of theory 2 and 4. I doubt game will progress. I guess it will be an "info vote" but there are far better votes than someone who has contributed and tried answering questions while some haven't and deflected on others. Lack of contribution from Ahri, Pooky, HoG, and Wheme. The only reason I am really not keen on voting JV is because the level of contribution. Me, Skitter, and JV all have been contributing and right now being it day one, I like to find that in a more later state of mind where we solved scum between the more people who haven't said anything. Even if they are town, they are lacking actual town members like us any town.

If they flip scum, their partner could theoretically be anyone and it's hard to make any decisions pre-flip and pre-analysis of said flip so nobody can honestly answer this question with confidence but if anyone it would be you who is seemingly pushing an agenda of them getting bussed earlier and you hard-pushing against them. That on it's own is not indicative but that in addition to my read already on you that would be my push. Can you see why that seems like an agenda from my pov though, honest question.

Response:

Yes it could theoretically be anyone. But the point of this analysis is to show you how I don't have a slight concern in voting my scumreads/orientating my townreads. Yes I pushed the agenda that it could be flipped red, and that

should

be scummy from your perspective, but I explained why I thought it could be a bus if and only if they flip red but I have long defended Andante and will do so because I thought he brought enough willing contribution and many of reactions out of day one that could be carried out to day 2 as well despite scum/town. You say I am "hard pushing against them" What does that mean? I have defended them throughout and will continue to do so. I do understand. You have already had a read and my POV on this whole Andante thing further exemplifies it. I understand it from your POV and honestly I do from everyone. Especially you, you love to only react when someone else does. You pay attention to no one but those who have said something about you. (And I will further explain that in my long post about you later) Ahhh spoilers

Anyways I have to go to school. I hope these are good enough for you to understand.

[GrandpaMo]

@Skitter, mind adding your thoughts on this before I say anything about it.

I think once he realized the deadline was longer he was willing to switch votes ?

Except that wasn't it at all I believe. It was that they voted me simply because they wanted a wagon that wasn't Andante. Could be remembering wrong as well

that implies what skitter says is true. but yes, i am willing to switch votes on the premise that anything happens. or changes. i will further exemplify my read on pooky in jacksons post

[GrandpaMo]

Also imagine a world where Grandpa, myself, andante and skitter are all town and this is a royal laugh for the scum.

wtfff JV!!! I WAS LITERALLY GOING TO SAVE THAT IN MY POST ABOUT YOU DAMMIT. LOL, I like that you actually had that same intuitive thought as me.


++townpings imo. You deserve some.

Nah fr tho. I think that is what is happening right now.

And since we have more time. Can we hear from Fizz pls? Everyone collecevily town read fizz but I just want to hear from them cuz I dont know where they stand for me.

[Andante]

Oh yeah, fizz went silent after I outed a tr on them, but if I'm not voting JV I want Ahri here Grandpa is town, JV doesn't give off the same town vibes, he was literally setting up to vote me and grandpa back to back

[WhemeStar]

Andandte please claim

[skitter30]

@Skitter, mind adding your thoughts on this before I say anything about it.

I think once he realized the deadline was longer he was willing to switch votes ?

Except that wasn't it at all I believe. It was that they voted me simply because they wanted a wagon that wasn't Andante. Could be remembering wrong as well

Right, he townreads andante tho so whats the problem?

[Andante]

Andandte please claim

mafia. how about that?

Spoiler:

I still claim town ofc

[WhemeStar]

VOTE: Andandte

[Cabd]

Votecount 1-18

With 9 players alive, it will take 5 votes to eliminate.

Andante (4): skitter30, Ahri, PookyTheMagicalBear, WhemeStar
JacksonVirgo (1): Andante
Hand of Glory (1): Hand of Glory
GrandpaMo (1): JacksonVirgo
Pooky (1): GrandpaMo


Not Voting (1): Fizz Raab

The deadline for day one is set at 48 hours from the replacement's confirmation.

It's my pagetop share, and I want it now. Call J. G. Wentworth today!

[WhemeStar]

Wtf I wanted to hammer UNVOTE:

[JacksonVirgo]

Stolen

[JacksonVirgo]

Stolen

[JacksonVirgo]

Stolen

[JacksonVirgo]

Stolen

[JacksonVirgo]

The