Newbie 2059 - Scummer's Baking Championship (Baked Over)

[Cabd]

It's all natural, my page-top snipes are not produced with any performance enhancing drugs this time.

Votecount 1-19

With 9 players alive, it will take 5 votes to eliminate.

Andante (3): skitter30, Ahri, PookyTheMagicalBear
JacksonVirgo (1): Andante
Hand of Glory (1): Hand of Glory
GrandpaMo (1): JacksonVirgo
Pooky (1): GrandpaMo


Not Voting (2): Fizz Raab, WhemeStar

The deadline for day one is set at 48 hours from the replacement's confirmation.

It's my pagetop share, and I want it now. Call J. G. Wentworth today!

[JacksonVirgo]

Bruh

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

next level

[skitter30]

V impressive cabd

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

he's a programmer so I'm not sure if this is manual or if he has set up a bot that automatically snipes pagetops.

[skitter30]

Fair point hmmmmmm

[skitter30]

It's all natural, my page-top snipes are not produced with any performance enhancing drugs this time.

Man we should sign u up for the pagetop-sniping Olympics then

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Cabd is top tier for sure

[JacksonVirgo]

I don't want to re-quote that post but I am referring to 735 and Grandpa's response. I am going to label each one though dw.

Spoiler: 1

You're seemingly using associations prior to getting any flips/information on any alignments which almost always ends bad.

Spoiler: 2

The fact that they're the ones being top-wagoned can mean many things that I am going to try and explain soon, I do think that's a general read on why you can town-read them simply based on them having no resistance, it's actually what's making me want you dead more than them when earlier I was fine with both tbh

If we do say that 4/9 are against a wagon and 5/9 are for the wagon. There is only a 11% greater chance (in a vacuum) that scum are trying to wagon them (again in a vacuum), which is not that much difference.

If I include Andante as against a wagon:

Chance of scum on wagon is 5/9 which is 55%
Chance of scum off wagon is 4/9 which is 44%
Chance of both scum on wagon is ((5/9) * (5/9)) which is a 30% chance.
Chance of both scum off wagon is ((4/9) * (4/9)) which is a 19% chance.
Chance of each scum on either is (100% - 30% - 19%) which is a 51% chance.

Again this is in a vacuum, so this is completely ignoring subjective reads and possible agenda's etc so this data is not something we should be following but it's something I would like to counter your math with.

Spoiler: 3 and 4

I meant to move the first one down to reference both as I came to the same conclusion but forgot to get rid of the first one oof.

I am simply saying game plans early on are anti-town in the long run. And NK does matter to scum, if we say [x] will flips scum if [y] dies. Scum can choose to kill y, and x will look bad securing a miselim, assuming otherwise is a lapse of judgement.

And my question is that if we eliminate anyone today, and they flip town. Who would progress the game the most do you think. And if you think flipping Andante progresses the game regardless then why are you dead against it? Also any scum flip progresses the game that's why I am not asking the reverse.

Spoiler: 5

By "hard pushing against them" I mean you're pushing to not wagon them. And regarding me only reacting when they speak about me, that's also a portion of why I heavy-tunnel and I am trying to get better at it but it's hard getting out of a habit.

[JacksonVirgo]

@Skitter, mind adding your thoughts on this before I say anything about it.

I think once he realized the deadline was longer he was willing to switch votes ?

Except that wasn't it at all I believe. It was that they voted me simply because they wanted a wagon that wasn't Andante. Could be remembering wrong as well

Right, he townreads andante tho so whats the problem?

I misread one of the posts, I thought they called me confscum and then backed out when I stopped voting there. Missed them calling it a sarcastic vote or whatnot

[JacksonVirgo]

VOTE: Andandte

You were gonna hammer without a full-claim?

[skitter30]

I wonder why the game is somewhat stagnant
I'm kinda second-guessing my andante read but he just feels so scummy to me :/

Pedit fair enuf

I tr grandpamo
And probably jv and ahri

Pooky isnt really playing so idk

Gun-to-head fizz and wheme are town

Which leaves me with andante + hog cept i kinda townread hog

Hmmmmm maybe pooky is scum idk

This is kinda where i'm at
Can everyone share something like this please?

[Andante]

the game only gets more dead with me gone...

[JacksonVirgo]

I TR Skitter and HoG, the latter being weaker.
Pooky is a SL.
Wheme is a bit of an oofer for me, they're acting anti-town but I also don't think it's scummy rather than townies acting anti-town.
Grandpa and Andante are my SR's, the latter is again weaker.
Have no real read on Fizz.

I have small moments of pause with my andante read as I've said.

[JacksonVirgo]

Andante how experienced are you at mafia?

[JacksonVirgo]

I think I have a clutch read

[JacksonVirgo]

I wonder why the game is somewhat stagnant

I think it's because nobody is getting points across effectively and getting burned out. I am hoping a flip will bring things back when that happens

[JacksonVirgo]

Andante how experienced are you at mafia?

Please answer this with as much detail as possible and ASAP

[WhemeStar]

VOTE: Andandte

You were gonna hammer without a full-claim?

I think if he was a Pr He would have said that

[GrandpaMo]

I wonder why the game is somewhat stagnant

I think it's because nobody is getting points across effectively and getting burned out. I am hoping a flip will bring things back when that happens

dw stay tuned...

[JacksonVirgo]

I wonder why the game is somewhat stagnant

I think it's because nobody is getting points across effectively and getting burned out. I am hoping a flip will bring things back when that happens

dw stay tuned...

Am excited, when can I expect it to drop?

[Andante]

Andante how experienced are you at mafia?

This is my 2nd game here, and I have a few chat maf games under my belt

[Andante]

VOTE: Andandte

You were gonna hammer without a full-claim?

I think if he was a Pr He would have said that

I never claimed pr or not, I said if yall voted me out, there's town on the wagon and if I were pr, your fault not mine

[JacksonVirgo]

I have something to add, but I am gonna wait for Grandpa before posting

[GrandpaMo]

I wonder why the game is somewhat stagnant

I think it's because nobody is getting points across effectively and getting burned out. I am hoping a flip will bring things back when that happens

dw stay tuned...

Am excited, when can I expect it to drop?

lol uhhh well im in a voice game rn of mafia. its taking longer than usual because while im isoing everyone including u mainly, im doing anaylsis on my notebook and i also need to still check out ur other games. i do have school tomorrrow so i do need to go to sleep and might just finish writing this by the time i sleep as im playing voice mafia; yes im multigaming but shh. anwyays just giv me some time.