Open 808: The Council Has Spoken

[Raya36]

Maybe there's too much distancing happening there. Ok so if scum didn't kill my pool is better as {yessiree, t-bone, maybe BM?}

Ok then - given we don't know if scum killed, and if they did it would clear both yessirree and me, why are you not elimming T-Bone today?

Because we don't know if they did or not. I guess just by this alone T-Bone has the highest chance of being scum. There's just too many things that don't make sense.

If we elim T-Bone today and he's town how would feel about being the elim the next day unless new info tells us otherwise. I feel like there's a very high chance your 1v1 is TvS

I was thinking of suggesting the same, but I'm not sure what to make of you proposing it. In a world where T-Bone and me both flip town, are you willing to go next?

I'll go next if we think it would provide the most info but if you and T-Bone flip town we need to be careful about who we elim next.

heh, yeah I thought you might say something like that. Consider my answer similarly caveated then.

Yeah, fair enough then

[Battle Mage]

Can you explain then why you made a response beginning "Yes, I'll confirm this" in post 715, which did nothing to either commit to your own view, presumably only served to keep T-Bone happy, and in fact obfuscated the reality of what happened, which is T-Bone proposed using the abilities in a sub-optimal way, despite pushing hard to get himself on the council - which was the original point I made and find difficult to justify from the perspective of T-Bone-town? Because I feel like your post 715 gives an impression of supporting T-Bone's position and undermining my core argument aforementioned, which doesn't really accord with your view here. I.e. why did you not just say what you actually thought, instead paying lip service to T-Bone's inaccurate claim that I lied about the demerits of his plan? I know I'm prone to hyperbole at times, but only 3 of us can account for what was said last night - clarity is key.

As an aside, if we had used the track as we did, but failed to use the protect, we would not necessarily have more information (and certainly not from T-Bone's vantage point, given his insistence that I'm scum), just different information. We would either know that scum no-killed, which is not really useful information, or we'd know that Yessirree is town but I'd be dead. I'm not sure either of those scenarios put us in a better position than we are now.

Because the way you wrote it was misleading to anyone not on the council or maybe not paying as much attention. His plan for the abilities was not optimal but

he was still wanting to use the abilities.

Not quite right though - you've already acknowledged he was only wanting to use 1 ability, and his proposal was to use it in such a way that it couldn't result in a genuine red-check - forgoing the advantage town has. Would it be unfair for me to argue your post here is actually misleading to anyone not on the council or maybe not paying as much attention?

But he was still intending to use an ability which is not what you claimed. And yes, that would be unfair.

You suggested above he was still wanting to use "abilities" plural. When he was only wanting to use 1, and he was expressly intending to use that 1 in the least valuable way possible. So I disagree - you have not been at all clear on this, and in doing so you've undermined an argument of mine against T-Bone (that he was determined above all else to secure his own place on the council and then did not act in the town's interests when given that opportunity), which interestingly you haven't engaged with....instead briefly running up Nono, to then backtrack under minimal pressure...and still not voting T-Bone despite claiming he is your top suspect.

I didn't say it to keep T-Bone happy and I've already said my views. I said it to clear up the facts in yours and T-Bone's 1on1 for anyone not aware of the context first-hand.

Do you think you cleared up facts? I feel that the fact you had to explain that the position in that post did not reflect your overall sentiments (albeit to me, although few others are around) on T-Bone's plan was very misleading and (perhaps inadvertently) supported the misconception he is pushing about his proposed course of action last night - which is in turn, the basis for his case on me. You've been clear subsequently, but only when I've pushed you and it feels a bit like you're bouncing between people to find the path of least resistance.

I think both of you are being misleading, and even if I was not perfect I did clear it up the best of the 3 of us.

I disagree. T-Bone was actually clearer than you, in that his position was unambiguously misleading, whereas yours was somewhat misleading, and it took some probing to work out where you stand. I don't want to over-emphasise the importance of this though, as it's probably minimal.

It would give us much more info. If we knew scum no-killed for fact then I wouldn't be doubting the possibility of yessiree being scum, but instead I'm giving yessiree some credit because they have a higher chance of being town due to that lack of info. If you died and it wasn't yessiree then we would now have yessiree out of the already small pool and we while this sucks for you, we wouldn't be having this particular 1v1 and you would be one less person in the pool too.

That isn't more info - it's different info as I previously said. What you're describing above is a challenge that you have some information but you're not sure what it means, and so you'd prefer to have different simpler information, even though it has less bearing on working out who is scum. Don't you think it's potentially useful and valuable to have information which suggests a theoretically lower likelihood of 2/3 of your potential scumpool being scum? Surely that's useful information to guide your decision today. And in the alternative scenario you posit, you'd be making exactly the same decision (i.e. me and yessirree clear, therefore T-Bone is final scum)?

It's different info and overall more. We really don't have much info now without making assumptions. We had the potential of a cleared townie.

Your position is consistent with your scumpool. But I think on the face of it, me dying and confirming yessirree would have made negligible difference for most, given neither of us are exactly on the chopping block today even without mechanical confirmation. As above, this feels like a slightly moot point, but it's interesting that you are persevering with it whilst relenting quite easily on other things (of more significance).

In other news, I'm sad that you think a benefit of me dying would be that you don't have to talk to me. This isn't a 1v1 from my perspective.

I never said a benefit of you dying is I don't have to talk to you. I said that if you did die a positive outcome of that is the pool would be smaller.

That's ok. How do you normally cope under pressure as scum?

[Battle Mage]

Maybe there's too much distancing happening there. Ok so if scum didn't kill my pool is better as {yessiree, t-bone, maybe BM?}

Ok then - given we don't know if scum killed, and if they did it would clear both yessirree and me, why are you not elimming T-Bone today?

Because we don't know if they did or not. I guess just by this alone T-Bone has the highest chance of being scum. There's just too many things that don't make sense.

If we elim T-Bone today and he's town how would feel about being the elim the next day unless new info tells us otherwise. I feel like there's a very high chance your 1v1 is TvS

I was thinking of suggesting the same, but I'm not sure what to make of you proposing it. In a world where T-Bone and me both flip town, are you willing to go next?

I'll go next if we think it would provide the most info but if you and T-Bone flip town we need to be careful about who we elim next.

heh, yeah I thought you might say something like that. Consider my answer similarly caveated then.

Yeah, fair enough then

the reality is, we shouldn't be looking at you today - we should be elimming within the off-wagon pool from yesterday as mechanically the most likely scum. Losing from this position to off-wagon scum would be woeful townplay.

[Battle Mage]

I do think the likelihood is it's just T-Bone and we're all wasting time debating anything else.

[mozamis]

@ Raya - all I could see from your ISO about NoNo was NoKill spec.
There are many reasons for the NoKill. I've seen games where scum have failed to put in the NightKill by mistake.
So who knows?
We can only go on who looks most town or scum, and in that regard, Nono looks most scummy.

p:edit obviously not going to read wall posts with multiple quotes in.

[Raya36]

You suggested above he was still wanting to use "abilities" plural. When he was only wanting to use 1, and he was expressly intending to use that 1 in the least valuable way possible. So I disagree - you have not been at all clear on this, and in doing so you've undermined an argument of mine against T-Bone (that he was determined above all else to secure his own place on the council and then did not act in the town's interests when given that opportunity), which interestingly you haven't engaged with....instead briefly running up Nono, to then backtrack under minimal pressure...and still not voting T-Bone despite claiming he is your top suspect.

I disagree. T-Bone was actually clearer than you, in that his position was unambiguously misleading, whereas yours was somewhat misleading, and it took some probing to work out where you stand. I don't want to over-emphasise the importance of this though, as it's probably minimal.

Ok true. The plural of abilities may not have been as correct as I intended. I had no intentions to undermine you or support T-Bone. I intended to neutrally explain what happened. I've been engaging minimally in the 1v1 between you and T-Bone because I don't think taking a side will do anything than create useless noise from me, plus I'm not confident on either side. I backtracked on Nono because I realized I was most likely wrong when I looked more into interactions. It had nothing to do with pressure.

Your position is consistent with your scumpool. But I think on the face of it, me dying and confirming yessirree would have made negligible difference for most, given neither of us are exactly on the chopping block today even without mechanical confirmation. As above, this feels like a slightly moot point, but it's interesting that you are persevering with it whilst relenting quite easily on other things (of more significance).

You can't be voted today but you're still not clear for any reason which makes you a part of the pool. Yessiree isn't clear either and therefore part of the pool. Not using the doc would have a higher chance and minimizing the pool and that's what should have been done.

That's ok. How do you normally cope under pressure as scum?

Pretty good I think. Oddly probably better than as town. I'd say I'm better at avoiding conflict and pressure as scum whereas when I'm town I don't care as much to avoid it. I'll find a couple recent scum games if you wanted to skim.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=85864
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=85406

[Raya36]

@ Raya - all I could see from your ISO about NoNo was NoKill spec.
There are many reasons for the NoKill. I've seen games where scum have failed to put in the NightKill by mistake.
So who knows?
We can only go on who looks most town or scum, and in that regard, Nono looks most scummy.

p:edit obviously not going to read wall posts with multiple quotes in.

It's in 731

[Battle Mage]

You suggested above he was still wanting to use "abilities" plural. When he was only wanting to use 1, and he was expressly intending to use that 1 in the least valuable way possible. So I disagree - you have not been at all clear on this, and in doing so you've undermined an argument of mine against T-Bone (that he was determined above all else to secure his own place on the council and then did not act in the town's interests when given that opportunity), which interestingly you haven't engaged with....instead briefly running up Nono, to then backtrack under minimal pressure...and still not voting T-Bone despite claiming he is your top suspect.

I disagree. T-Bone was actually clearer than you, in that his position was unambiguously misleading, whereas yours was somewhat misleading, and it took some probing to work out where you stand. I don't want to over-emphasise the importance of this though, as it's probably minimal.

Ok true. The plural of abilities may not have been as correct as I intended. I had no intentions to undermine you or support T-Bone. I intended to neutrally explain what happened. I've been engaging minimally in the 1v1 between you and T-Bone because I don't think taking a side will do anything than create useless noise from me, plus I'm not confident on either side. I backtracked on Nono because I realized I was most likely wrong when I looked more into interactions. It had nothing to do with pressure.

3 Q's:

1. Why do you assume BM vs T-Bone is TvS?
2. Given your assumption BM vs T-Bone is TvS, why are you still not voting T-Bone? You were quite ready to jump to Nono earlier. Which leads me to:
3. Why did your analysis of Nono lead you to conclude Nono was town?

[T-Bone]

Maybe there's too much distancing happening there. Ok so if scum didn't kill my pool is better as {yessiree, t-bone, maybe BM?}

Ok then - given we don't know if scum killed, and if they did it would clear both yessirree and me, why are you not elimming T-Bone today?

If only we took some action that would have provided clarity as to what scum did for sure, last night.

[T-Bone]

Nah, we wouldn't want to accidentally give the town any useful information. A player who will go unnamed, wanted to make sure we had no information so that he could push a miselim based on that lack of information.

[T-Bone]

I'm honestly banging my head on a desk because using the doctor action is negative utility against solo scum and you're out here defending it like it was the superior choice. It wasn't. It was the choice that allowed maximum WIFOM. Only one person benefits from maximum WIFOM and it isn't me.

Here's the plan I presented vs the plan we went with. Here are the facts.

BM's plan: protect himself, track someone else. No kill last night. We do not know for sure, whether scum no-killed or targeted BM.

My plan: Protect no one. Either BM gets killed and yessiree is confirmed town...or we know for sure scum no-killed.

I like how you're trying to argue after the fact that our plans would have provided the same amount of information but the FACT is it wouldn't have. Even if we still didn't have a kill last night, the fact that we would now know for sure what scum did is more useful then the nonsense you're trying to push. Frankly, we both wouldn't be in this situation right now had we went with my preferred plan.

And since you and I both know we wouldn't be in this 1v1. Why did you want your awful plan?

[Battle Mage]

Nah, we wouldn't want to accidentally give the town any useful information. A player who will go unnamed, wanted to make sure we had no information so that he could push a miselim based on that lack of information.

although that isn't true, how convenient it is for you to be able to peddle such a baseless theory, in an attempt to buy yourself an otherwise unlikely, but much needed, mis-elim.

[T-Bone]

I feel like town!BM would realize that his selfishness to be protected would now, in retrospect, realize how badly he messed up the mechanic of the set-up. It is very plain to see, how on Day 2, using the doctor is negative utility.

But you haven't even made that realization, so town!BM is unlikely.

[T-Bone]

And I don't mean that in a "I told you so" kind of way. It is just time to have some self-reflection if you're town. Especially since you have access to this negative utility role again tonight.

[T-Bone]

Really that should be directed @Arte and @Enchant. Please after I flip town, do not let BM bully you into using the doctor power. You all need to know tomorrow if scum intentionally no-kills or not.

[Enchant]

Sorry for not answering. Because when i look at this thread, i always get headache.

Just. We have Mafia in 7vs1 situation. We have tracks (they confirm townie always when nightkill happens and have potential to catch Mafia). As Council you of course can kill and get away with that, but that's certanly someone was in this council mafia, otherwise it's not effective play. Mafia from outside could be think about it and nightkill anyway in hopes we will think someone from Council did that.

Yes. Wine again. You love this.


Killing outstide of Council is risky, but someone could do that to frame Council. Killing IN Council is save, but we would start "LYNCH ALL COUNCIL" meta, because that's so expected from Council mafia. So, would mafia from Council kill? Yes. With exactly chance than mafia outside of Council kills if they want frame.


Why i talk this? Don't assume anything. Don't clear someone outside or inside council because kill not happened.

[mozamis]

Elimate Nono.
Simple.

[Battle Mage]

Here's the plan I presented vs the plan we went with. Here are the facts.

BM's plan: protect himself, track someone else. No kill last night. We do not know for sure, whether scum no-killed or targeted BM.

My plan: Protect no one. Either BM gets killed and yessiree is confirmed town...or we know for sure scum no-killed.

I like how you're trying to argue after the fact that our plans would have provided the same amount of information but the FACT is it wouldn't have. Even if we still didn't have a kill last night, the fact that we would now know for sure what scum did is more useful then the nonsense you're trying to push. Frankly, we both wouldn't be in this situation right now had we went with my preferred plan.

And since you and I both know we wouldn't be in this 1v1. Why did you want your awful plan?

lol I'm not going to explain the logic in full AGAIN, as you're objectively wrong, and we've done this topic to absolute death. In your 2 scenarios above (of which 'your plan' does not accurately reflect your actual plan, but I'll humour it), the outcomes are either: scum no-kill or BM dies and yessirree is conftown - we agreed last night the rationale for using the protect was that if someone was sufficiently likely town and likely to be killed, given the gamestate it was more sensible to protect a probable-town to give us more chance of getting extra day-elims on the PoE-pool. But a few points of information, which perhaps Raya will verify:

1. I did not have a strong preference on who was targetted (I think my original suggestion was Enchant), other than the obvious principle of us using the protect ability, and using the track on somebody who might perform the kill.

2. The ultimate decision was collectively consented, so T-Bone referring to it as unconscionable is disingenuous. I don't recall T-Bone raising significant objection to me being protected, on which nobody really expressed a strong preference.

3. It's already been stated and verified, but T-Bone's inference that he proposed Track: Yessirree, Protect: Nobody is not true, and so what he claims to be "his plan" above was not actually his plan, which makes the comparison a pointless strawman.

The fact you're still trying to argue your approach was optimal is baffling. I guess we'll see tonight, if we get that far, where Artemiana and Enchant stand on it.

[mozamis]

I don't think we need to over complicate things.
We are in a strong position.
We have a good council.
We have a good chance of winning the game if we Elim. NoNo.
If NoNo is town, then pressure is on tomorrow.
But we cross that bridge when we get there.

[Battle Mage]

Really that should be directed @Arte and @Enchant. Please after I flip town, do not let BM bully you into using the doctor power. You all need to know tomorrow if scum intentionally no-kills or not.

haha hadn't seen this until after i posted, but my thoughts exactly! i almost hope we do go to night, just to prove I'm right. also...are you really suggesting I bullied you last night? From what I remember, I politely and carefully disagreed but nonetheless actively sought your opinion on the key decisions.

[Raya36]

3 Q's:

1. Why do you assume BM vs T-Bone is TvS?
2. Given your assumption BM vs T-Bone is TvS, why are you still not voting T-Bone? You were quite ready to jump to Nono earlier. Which leads me to:
3. Why did your analysis of Nono lead you to conclude Nono was town?

1) just to be clear when I say 1v1 I don't mean TvS. A 1v1 can be TvT or SvS too. I'm not assuming you're TvS when I say you're 1v1. I have said a couple time that I think you could be TvS though and that's because of the attitude and trying to discredit each other.

2) I was less confident on any of my reads compared to today and now T-Bone is at E-2 I think and I don't want him at E-1 yet. I'm leaning towards T-Bone today fwiw

3) Because I analyzed the interactions with A50 and I concluded town based on them? I don't think I understand what you're asking here. I shouldn't have jumped on nono being scum before thoroughly looking through interactions if that's what you mean.

[Battle Mage]

I feel like town!BM would realize that his selfishness to be protected would now, in retrospect, realize how badly he messed up the mechanic of the set-up. It is very plain to see, how on Day 2, using the doctor is negative utility.

But you haven't even made that realization, so town!BM is unlikely.

lol it wasn't as if I made a big song and dance about being protected, so this is a very misleading account. I actually went back and checked just now - I suggested Enchant as the optimal protect, and me as 2nd pick, and Raya wanted to go with me over Enchant.

So selfishness? look closer to home. But there is an element of pragmatism in the game, and it is common sense to protect the most likely town players.

[T-Bone]

I'm using hyperbolic language to get my point across.

It was my mistake not to fight harder in our council topic. We'd be in a much better place had I done so.

[T-Bone]

I'm glad BM has moved from 't-bone is scum' to 'I hope t-bone is town so I can convince enchant and arte to do sub-optimal things in council tonight'.

[T-Bone]

The next step in scum-rationalization is to blame me for "being scummy" when having to answer to my confirmed town thoughts. Look out for that!