Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!


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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:40 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 201, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 199, Bingle wrote:Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.
Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setup
From interactions: I doubt skitter puts the majority of her teams fate in their hands and I doubt that you go for the early softbus right here when it's a potentially game ending strategy.
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:43 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 203, Vanderscamp wrote:I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.
Not quite what I meant when I said it was step one. I think we should have the three of us decide who we would elim in the next few days and then use that to inform the rest of D1.
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:53 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 212, skitter30 wrote:but i kinda feel infinity has entered the game assuming that we're going to flipping in 3p first and is setting the stage for why that ought to be me
It had occurred to me.
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:27 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

skitter30 wrote:
In post 106, Infinity 324 wrote:I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate

Skitt get in here and fite me

VOTE: skitt

Ydrasse you're free for now
ok let's fite
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)
-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)
GTKAS

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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:28 pm

Post by Bingle »

Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:46 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 220, Vanderscamp wrote:they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.
Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:00 pm

Post by Menalque »

In post 200, Bingle wrote:Mena, you have significant partner equity with Infinity. Thoughts?
Uh, why
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:15 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%
Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:16 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 229, Infinity 324 wrote:
skitter30 wrote:
In post 106, Infinity 324 wrote:I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate

Skitt get in here and fite me

VOTE: skitt

Ydrasse you're free for now
ok let's fite
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)
-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)
Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:17 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 231, Bingle wrote:
In post 220, Vanderscamp wrote:they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.
Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.
Ok, good to know
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:20 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 230, Bingle wrote:Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool.
I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:21 pm

Post by Menalque »

Who cares, math is boring
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:22 pm

Post by Menalque »

6p first is obviously correct I don’t care what the math says
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:28 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 233, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%
Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.
I will say that I think in practice the math for this is kind of misleading (even though if I'm not wrong, which I'm pretty sure I'm not, it comes to the exact same conclusion that I've been advocating) because it assumes we're lynching randomly.
I'm pretty sure a fairly big part of the reason why lynching into the small pool first comes out ahead is because from a random kills POV, the fact that we force scum to NK into the big pool before solving there reduces our chance of miskilling in the big pool when we eventually do get there, but in practice I don't think this is as helpful since when scum just NK the towniest player in the big pool, we were not going to kill them anyway, so math assuming random lynching assumes this is a bigger deal than it will turn out to be in practice.

On the flip side of this, the math argument also doesn't care if a scum gets eliminated at any point in the game or the reads we would get from that.
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 218, skitter30 wrote:
In post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 141, Menalque wrote:Still TR u tho

U can’t take that away from me

And was correct too
You started of SRing me, then you TRed me, then you were trusting skitt. Somehow I feel like you would've been SRing me if skitt wasn't there but I guess we'll never know

You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners
i think you're conflating jk++ with pyp x|y i|m, no ? isn't pyp the one where mena tried to flip you like six times but i wouldn't let him. or was that something else

either way i'm not really townreading you here so
I just reread jk9++
In post 219, skitter30 wrote:
In post 150, Infinity 324 wrote:Pooky: we should lim in the 6p hood
Infinity: ehh idk
Pooky: here are all the advantages of limming in the 6p hood
Infinity: on the other hand, here are all the advantages of limming in the 3p hood
Everyone: wow infinity is so against limming in the 6p hood
i'm also not sure this actually, like, happened ?
It was tongue-in-cheek, I don't actually think there was much of a misrep it's just hard to argue for a neutral position and be interpreted correctly
GTKAS

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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:33 pm

Post by Menalque »

Infinity u said something earlier that made very little sense
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:35 pm

Post by Menalque »

In post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners
This was kind of a bizarre thing to say given that you were advocating scum!skitt within your hood at the time
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:36 pm

Post by Menalque »

In post 210, skitter30 wrote:
In post 72, Menalque wrote:Yah I think the problem with putting myself in with skitt would be the paranoia, esp in the 3p
ngl i was kinda thinking you were being +town for you until you said this
but this *does* make me paranoid ^
btw skitt i don’t understand why this makes u paranoid
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:44 pm

Post by skitter30 »

In post 175, Infinity 324 wrote:Skitt can read me well I think but she's gonna say I'm town
i kinda feel like you're expecting me (and wanting me) to townread you here while also pushign me as the likeliest in 3p to be scum?
and like you want me to townread you to get mena off your back

which doesn't entirely make sense as a coherent pov to me here
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Hiatus once more.

'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:46 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 234, Vanderscamp wrote:Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?
I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.
GTKAS

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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:47 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 242, Menalque wrote:
In post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners
This was kind of a bizarre thing to say given that you were advocating scum!skitt within your hood at the time
See my last post, same with skitt who asked p much the same thing
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:48 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 236, Vanderscamp wrote:I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it
Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:50 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

3p group: doing all this

6p group: music party
warrior cats mafia is now in a queue near you!
- - - -
kill me and live with the memory — then tell the stars that you
won
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:50 pm

Post by Menalque »

Oi bingle explain why I have equity with infinity
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