From interactions: I doubt skitter puts the majority of her teams fate in their hands and I doubt that you go for the early softbus right here when it's a potentially game ending strategy.In post 201, Infinity 324 wrote:Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setupIn post 199, Bingle wrote:Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.
Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!
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Not quite what I meant when I said it was step one. I think we should have the three of us decide who we would elim in the next few days and then use that to inform the rest of D1.In post 203, Vanderscamp wrote:I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky- PookyTheMagicalBear
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In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?
going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right
it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.
but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning
if we go thru the small pool we have
(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)
Overall WR -> 41.1%
if we go thru the big pool we have:
(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over
(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory
We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.
Overall WR -> 50%Show"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
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It had occurred to me.In post 212, skitter30 wrote:but i kinda feel infinity has entered the game assuming that we're going to flipping in 3p first and is setting the stage for why that ought to be me"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky- Infinity 324
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-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either oneskitter30 wrote:
ok let's fiteIn post 106, Infinity 324 wrote:I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate
Skitt get in here and fite me
VOTE: skitt
Ydrasse you're free for now
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)
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Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky- Bingle
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Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.In post 220, Vanderscamp wrote:they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky- Menalque
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Uh, whyIn post 200, Bingle wrote:Mena, you have significant partner equity with Infinity. Thoughts?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Vanderscamp
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Your math is wrong.In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?
going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right
it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.
but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning
if we go thru the small pool we have
(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)
Overall WR -> 41.1%
if we go thru the big pool we have:
(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over
(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory
We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.
Overall WR -> 50%
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.
I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3
which is 40.97%.
Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.- Vanderscamp
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Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?In post 229, Infinity 324 wrote:
-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either oneskitter30 wrote:
ok let's fiteIn post 106, Infinity 324 wrote:I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate
Skitt get in here and fite me
VOTE: skitt
Ydrasse you're free for now
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)- Vanderscamp
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Ok, good to knowIn post 231, Bingle wrote:
Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.In post 220, Vanderscamp wrote:they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.- Vanderscamp
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I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue itIn post 230, Bingle wrote:Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool.- Menalque
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I will say that I think in practice the math for this is kind of misleading (even though if I'm not wrong, which I'm pretty sure I'm not, it comes to the exact same conclusion that I've been advocating) because it assumes we're lynching randomly.In post 233, Vanderscamp wrote:
Your math is wrong.In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?
going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right
it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.
but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning
if we go thru the small pool we have
(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)
Overall WR -> 41.1%
if we go thru the big pool we have:
(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over
(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory
We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.
Overall WR -> 50%
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.
I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3
which is 40.97%.
Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.
I'm pretty sure a fairly big part of the reason why lynching into the small pool first comes out ahead is because from a random kills POV, the fact that we force scum to NK into the big pool before solving there reduces our chance of miskilling in the big pool when we eventually do get there, but in practice I don't think this is as helpful since when scum just NK the towniest player in the big pool, we were not going to kill them anyway, so math assuming random lynching assumes this is a bigger deal than it will turn out to be in practice.
On the flip side of this, the math argument also doesn't care if a scum gets eliminated at any point in the game or the reads we would get from that.- Infinity 324
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I just reread jk9++In post 218, skitter30 wrote:
i think you're conflating jk++ with pyp x|y i|m, no ? isn't pyp the one where mena tried to flip you like six times but i wouldn't let him. or was that something elseIn post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:You started of SRing me, then you TRed me, then you were trusting skitt. Somehow I feel like you would've been SRing me if skitt wasn't there but I guess we'll never know
You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners
either way i'm not really townreading you here so
It was tongue-in-cheek, I don't actually think there was much of a misrep it's just hard to argue for a neutral position and be interpreted correctlyIn post 219, skitter30 wrote:
i'm also not sure this actually, like, happened ?In post 150, Infinity 324 wrote:Pooky: we should lim in the 6p hood
Infinity: ehh idk
Pooky: here are all the advantages of limming in the 6p hood
Infinity: on the other hand, here are all the advantages of limming in the 3p hood
Everyone: wow infinity is so against limming in the 6p hood- Menalque
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This was kind of a bizarre thing to say given that you were advocating scum!skitt within your hood at the timeIn post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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btw skitt i don’t understand why this makes u paranoidIn post 210, skitter30 wrote:
ngl i was kinda thinking you were being +town for you until you said thisIn post 72, Menalque wrote:Yah I think the problem with putting myself in with skitt would be the paranoia, esp in the 3p
but this *does* make me paranoid ^"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- skitter30
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i kinda feel like you're expecting me (and wanting me) to townread you here while also pushign me as the likeliest in 3p to be scum?In post 175, Infinity 324 wrote:Skitt can read me well I think but she's gonna say I'm town
and like you want me to townread you to get mena off your back
which doesn't entirely make sense as a coherent pov to me hereShowHiatus once more.
'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me
'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me
'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA
'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx- Infinity 324
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I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.In post 234, Vanderscamp wrote:Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?- Infinity 324
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See my last post, same with skitt who asked p much the same thingIn post 242, Menalque wrote:
This was kind of a bizarre thing to say given that you were advocating scum!skitt within your hood at the timeIn post 144, Infinity 324 wrote:You can still sheep skitt's read on me this game, we can't be partners- Bingle
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Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, areIn post 236, Vanderscamp wrote:I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it
TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)
Which sums to 40.4%.
I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
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