Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Infinity 324]

Town!skitt doesn't accept the logic of "this player makes no sense, must be scum". She uses what she knows about a player and weighs whether a town motivation is more likely than a scum one. In PyP she TRed me quite strongly when others were SRing me or much less sure. Her read on me here is fake.

[Bingle]

@Mena:

Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.

Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setup

From interactions: I doubt skitter puts the majority of her teams fate in their hands and I doubt that you go for the early softbus right here when it's a potentially game ending strategy.

tl;dr I don't think Vander is scum with skitter. I also don't think Vander is scum with Infinity. I think it is fairly obvious I wouldn't trust someone I don't know to be the linchpin of my team.

I also don't think he would be quite as vocal about his plan against me in light of him being unsure about my competency and me playing it up, although I hadn't brought that up yet.

[Infinity 324]

In PyP she TRed me quite strongly when others were SRing me or much less sure.

Specifically because my play was confusing and iirc a big part of the reason for her TRing me there was because she didn't see scum motivation for my play

[Infinity 324]

I'm going to sleep

[Bingle]

@jingle Do you have a read on me?

I think you are slightly more likely to be scum than skitter atm. I am wary enough of skitter to not care to solve that mess quite yet.

[skitter30]

Obviously just ask me to clarify, I want to make it as hard as possible for scum!you to maintain this position

ok, let me take a step back - why did you start this game voting me?

[skitter30]

“i was kinda thinking you were being +town” is presumably based on my posting in thread

Idg why paranoia about setup stuff is related to me not being +town based on what I’d posted here

Like

It makes more sense to say that you’re getting paranoid AS WELL almost?

your posting through that point had the high-energy scatter-train-of-thought vibe that i associate with town you
i did have that thought when i read that post, so i said so

it didn't overturn the prior posts or vibe or anything, but it was there too and i wanted to mention it

[Bingle]

I’ll consider infinity on the understanding that if skitt+bingle become conf then we dead sheep them until lylo

Fuck that noise. If I die you throw my reads out with the bathwater. My forte is setting up the gamestate so that other people can catch the scum. My early reads are pretty buckshot.

[Vanderscamp]

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

[skitter30]

ok but we might not get any conftown at all your way
i don't think we should be playing around getting conftown anyways per se so much as we should be trying to flip scum and i think it's easier in the smaller one.

i do think that at worst having 50/50 in 5p xylo is a decent point actually ... but i think if we flip through 3p first we we guarantee 3way, no? it's that better? cuz in 50-50 5p xylo we still need to get it right to get to 3way?

Mathematically, limming in the big pool has a very slight advantage numbers wise, although not enough to make it a cut and dry this is the only option decision.

Subjectively, the difference here is low risk - low reward vs moderate risk - moderate reward. If we hit scum in the first two elims in the big pool we still have workable conftown come 5p. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p.

On a fundamental level, the more salient point behind me wanting to hit the 6p first is the one pooky brought up: The scum in the 6p can't afford to be elimmed today. The scum in the 3p CAN. I think hunting the former gives us far more useful information to make subjective calls than hunting the latter.

ok i feel like if i respond to this we'll get bogged down again since i kinda disagree with at least two of the statements/assessments you're making here.
~
but turning it back on you - if you were had to flip someone in the 6p rn, who would you ?

[Bingle]

Pooky.

[Bingle]

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

I could look back, I suppose and see if I typo'd a calculation somewhere, but when we agree with the conclusion that the math says the two options are very similar and the subjective criteria is more important I'm not sure it's worth the distraction.

[Vanderscamp]

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

This adds up to 45.1%, which is not what I got either, but I see where I went wrong (and I was wrong), it was assuming that Pooky's odds of winning for the various mountainous set ups were correct, but they are actually also wrong.

The chances of winning with small pool first are 45.1%, and big pool first is whatever I said earlier, 40.7% or something.
So that's actually a pretty decent difference.

[skitter30]

Yes but I don't think I could do that. I probably wouldn't put us in a hood together to begin with.

I think you're projecting here, you're using my early soft push as an excuse to hard push me here when you would never be this confident in SRing me this early, even if you weren't TRing me

infinity.
you entered this game looking to push me. yes, i pushed back, because your push on me was agenda-driven and unfounded. i'm not sure why you think i *wouldn't* be scumreading you here.

[skitter30]

Town!skitt doesn't accept the logic of "this player makes no sense, must be scum". She uses what she knows about a player and weighs whether a town motivation is more likely than a scum one. In PyP she TRed me quite strongly when others were SRing me or much less sure. Her read on me here is fake.

and what's the town motivation?

[Vanderscamp]

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

I could look back, I suppose and see if I typo'd a calculation somewhere, but when we agree with the conclusion that the math says the two options are very similar and the subjective criteria is more important I'm not sure it's worth the distraction.

I have small pool first as over 4% better.
Not sure it does matter a huge amount but I think it's definitely wrong to say that big pool first is obviously correct.

[skitter30]

I'm going to sleep

night infinity! we shall continue our bickering on the morrow :)

Pooky.

ok interesting take, why?

[Vanderscamp]

Just checked scum's chances of winning going for the big pool first with all the possible combinations and it checks out, it's definitely 45% to win as town with small pool first and 41% to win with big pool first, the people who are saying big pool first is mathematically better are definitely wrong.
I don't agree that small pool scum can just afford to get eliminated, either, there's a pretty decent chance that we get to a point in the game after aiming for the big pool and missing twice that the small pool turns into the bigger pool.

[Bingle]

I'm going to sleep

night infinity! we shall continue our bickering on the morrow

Pooky.

ok interesting take, why?

FMPOV: 50% of the time you are scum. You know that scum in the small pool cannot be the endgame scum, therefore your partner is likely high tier. I would wager a very significant portion of the time, Infinity's team would also be aware of this restriction. That implies that the scum in the other pool is someone who can be trusted to pull a game by themselves. Of the names I recognize, Pooky and Mena best fit that bill with an outside chance of HecticAlt. Mena/You doesn't look S/S. Pooky and you have a disproportionate likelihood of being grouped if unaligned.

All of that is circumstantial evidence that points to Pooky having a higher likelihood of being scum than anyone else. Also, if I flip PookyTown, you become significantly more likely to be town imo, which is helpful for solving the you/infinity 1v1 later.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm going to sleep

night infinity! we shall continue our bickering on the morrow

Pooky.

ok interesting take, why?

FMPOV: 50% of the time you are scum. You know that scum in the small pool cannot be the endgame scum, therefore your partner is likely high tier. I would wager a very significant portion of the time, Infinity's team would also be aware of this restriction. That implies that the scum in the other pool is someone who can be trusted to pull a game by themselves. Of the names I recognize, Pooky and Mena best fit that bill with an outside chance of HecticAlt. Mena/You doesn't look S/S. Pooky and you have a disproportionate likelihood of being grouped if unaligned.

All of that is circumstantial evidence that points to Pooky having a higher likelihood of being scum than anyone else. Also, if I flip PookyTown, you become significantly more likely to be town imo, which is helpful for solving the you/infinity 1v1 later.

Haven't read all of this but your second sentence is wrong.
There's nothing to stop scum in the small pool from being endgame scum if we're lynching into the big pool first.

[Bingle]

Endgame is the wrong word, tbh. More important? The scum in the big pool can solo the game. The scum in the little pool has to rely on the scum in the big pool to be able to hold their own much more.

[Bingle]

Just checked scum's chances of winning going for the big pool first with all the possible combinations and it checks out, it's definitely 45% to win as town with small pool first and 41% to win with big pool first, the people who are saying big pool first is mathematically better are definitely wrong.
I don't agree that small pool scum can just afford to get eliminated, either, there's a pretty decent chance that we get to a point in the game after aiming for the big pool and missing twice that the small pool turns into the bigger pool.

Hm, went back and checked, and you are correct. Still, the point I made in 319 is still relevant as the entire premise is that mathematically both options are similar enough to not matter. A couple of percentage points of EV doesn't really mean much, which is why you don't balance games solely on EV.

[Bingle]

I find myself intrigued in the lack of cross pool solving. Objectively, my opinions about the alignments of the larger pool are more valuable and the opinions of the people in the larger pool about us are more valuable. I get very little from the skitter/infinity interactions, because I know they're T/S.

[NorwegianboyEE]

In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me.

This makes sense, you sold me

VOTE: vander my first FoS, he's playing like he did in underage gun control (idk his town meta though)

Can you link it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

we may have a 50+ page d1

oh my sweet summer child

Add one more zero to that 50.