Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[NorwegianboyEE]

Infinity town.
Skitter wouldn't put themselves in 1v2.

Bingle scum.

why is infinity town?
and to be quite honest there are some scenarios where i would put myself in 1v2 (although i can't imagine i woud like it very much, and would vastly prefer not to)

I don’t see scum!Infinity starting their game by immediately doing a 1v1 against you.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Then again, i’ve lost a bit of thr faith in that seeing as all of Jingle/Skitter/Infinity are playing pretty town. At least on the surface.

[NorwegianboyEE]

3p group: doing all this

6p group: music party

Hell yeah. xP

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

Do you always expect town!Skitter to townread you immediately early day 1 here?
It seems a bit strange as has been said, how your progression is:
>Skitter is likely scum.
>Unless they townread me.
*Skitter says they don’t townread Infinity*
>Knew it! skitter scum!!

[NorwegianboyEE]

Correctly limming in the pool of 3 D1 makes this a functionally a mountainous setup. It's not terrible, but it's also not great. OTOH, correctly limming in the big pool wins us the game. Also, limming in the big pool means scum is likely to shoot in the big pool. In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me. Leaving both of us alive means that there is a decent chance that one of the two of us destroys the shit out of the gamestate, which is a risky proposition all around. If scum is going to shoot in the little group regardless, we want to force them to make that decision later. If we conftown people in the little group, doing so late game is inarguably the stronger move.

tl;dr -> Catching scum on D1 is less important than setting up a winnable XLO.

i think it's kinda better to go for the slow-and-steady-wins-the-race approach because we *know* that there's scum in a fully-flippable pool and if we just flip through 3p we're guaranteed to get one before the game ends, and at taht point the 6p pt will have been wittled down to like 3 at worst (if we don't flip this scum till day3) and there will be loads of info from the nk's and how the flips in the 3p pt went down to sort out who the scum in the 6p pt is

it might take more time, sure, but it's ultimately safer

and yeah limming in the big pool wins the game - but only if we actually do so (and there's more people in there so it's easier to misflip ...) and if we don't get it right we're right back where we are tomorrow ...

(it's weird to have an argument for why we should handle this a specific way dependent on leaving me alive cuz i'm me so uh yeah)
(but it's also weird that you're lumping yourself in there with me - i'm not sure if in this game town-you is the person scum are playing against (no offense))

also is your argument for why conftowning people in the little group bad largely solely based on who's in it or ...
i'm kinda rambling as i think through this but let's say infinity is scum, we flip her today, say i die tonight. are you basically arguing that in that scenario we'd want town-you to be conftowned later so we shouldn't try to flip scum-infinity today ? or am i missing something. or if you die we'd want me to be conftowned later? either way we'd have a conftown through the end of day2, no? that's p good?

and if we flip in the big pool today - say we find the scumz, yay. but let's just say we don't ... we won't have any conftowns day2, but it's also not guaranteed we'd get any at any point, right? misflip again in either pool and day3 we can have no conftowns. like we can be in day3 with a 1v1 in the big pool and the small pool unresolved.

Norwee doesn’t understand big longey mouth-words without interruption. :<

[NorwegianboyEE]

Lim 6P hood GOOD
Lim 3P hood BAD

[Vanderscamp]

-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)

- you aren't approaching this like it could be either one tho
- i don't think you're being townie for you
- maybe i missed it but did you answer this: which pool do you think it's optimal to flip in today?

-What do you mean "approaching this"? I voted you which is like the only indication that I suspected you more? And I didn't know jingle was a particularly good scum player at first so idk what you're on about
-You're very wrong and I don't believe you believe that
-Jingle convinced me that it's better for whichever of you is town to be alive for longer, so 6p I guess

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

Right but

If she’s in the 3p pool then she’s prob not expecting to survive long term

I guess? I'm not sure which pool scum expected us to lim in

I guess she dies before endgame anyway but it's nice to survive one lim in the 3p group, but it's not that sus for her until I flip town, so my thought process didn't make sense. Ok. This makes me more confident skitt is scum

This post is quite scummy

[Vanderscamp]

also is your argument for why conftowning people in the little group bad largely solely based on who's in it or ...
i'm kinda rambling as i think through this but let's say infinity is scum, we flip her today, say i die tonight. are you basically arguing that in that scenario we'd want town-you to be conftowned later so we shouldn't try to flip scum-infinity today ? or am i missing something. or if you die we'd want me to be conftowned later? either way we'd have a conftown through the end of day2, no? that's p good?

If we conftown players in the small pool D1, they're both dead before XLO. It's the same principle as keeping masons hidden as long as possible. Having conftown early is actually pretty useless comparitively.

Also, from a gamestate perspective, we're guaranteed to have at worst a 50/50 at 5p XLO if we go big pool first. I'm not going to say that the possibility of scum fearkilling one of us out of the little pool isn't a factor (it is) but even without it the flip of the bigpool scum IS more informative than the flip of the little pool scum.

From a gamestate perspective we're guaranteed a confirmed mafia at 5p XLO by doing small pool first so this is not a good reason.

[Vanderscamp]

Skitt also knows that I struggle under pressure as town generally, so the plan is to elim me d1 and then NK jingle

Even scummier, you are just posting nonsense

[Vanderscamp]

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.

Why are you out of your scunrange?

I'm way more decisive than scum!me would me, maybe pooky or mena can see it. I'm not self-aware enough to give a detailed answer to this but I believe it's true

I'd love to hear anyone corroborate this!

[Vanderscamp]

I guess it is slightly +scum for me bc yeh I prob wouldn’t wanna be in the same hood as you (I’d isolate strong players and bus the fuck out of my buddy D1 prob) if I were scum

I think it’s just not that meaningful bc I think a decent number of people here would, if they were scum, not want us in the same hood if we’re both town

i mean fair but that's what i thought when i saw that post
like i didn't say it makes you scum or that this configuration is impossible from town-you

i did have paranoid thoughts there tho

I mean honestly skitt if I role scum this game I probably just cry and then provided my partner is halfway competent I put myself in the 3p and try to enjoy being able to open wolf all game

I’m only scum here ever with infinity, and even then only if infinty’s

really

doubtful of her ability to bring home a win

This feels like an honest take from someone who is not scum

[Vanderscamp]

Norwegian, reads on the big pool?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Skitt also knows that I struggle under pressure as town generally, so the plan is to elim me d1 and then NK jingle

y would she nightkill jingle there

Seems like a pretty shitty plan for Skitter, i agree.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwegian, reads on the big pool?

Hi, i’m at work and catching up very slowly. I’ll post it when i have time to.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think vanders is very null

What'd you think of my vanders town logic?

Tbh i wouldn’t townlock Vanders yet. I do think i should be able to read them since i correctly townread them in the first game we played before, but i don’t have a certain conclusion on them here yet.

[NorwegianboyEE]

ok but we might not get any conftown at all your way
i don't think we should be playing around getting conftown anyways per se so much as we should be trying to flip scum and i think it's easier in the smaller one.

i do think that at worst having 50/50 in 5p xylo is a decent point actually ... but i think if we flip through 3p first we we guarantee 3way, no? it's that better? cuz in 50-50 5p xylo we still need to get it right to get to 3way?

Mathematically, limming in the big pool has a very slight advantage numbers wise, although not enough to make it a cut and dry this is the only option decision.

Subjectively, the difference here is low risk - low reward vs moderate risk - moderate reward. If we hit scum in the first two elims in the big pool we still have workable conftown come 5p. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p.

On a fundamental level, the more salient point behind me wanting to hit the 6p first is the one pooky brought up: The scum in the 6p can't afford to be elimmed today. The scum in the 3p CAN. I think hunting the former gives us far more useful information to make subjective calls than hunting the latter.

Agreed a lot on the last paragraph. And i think it’s somewhat +town for you to bring that up.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Town!skitt doesn't accept the logic of "this player makes no sense, must be scum". She uses what she knows about a player and weighs whether a town motivation is more likely than a scum one. In PyP she TRed me quite strongly when others were SRing me or much less sure. Her read on me here is fake.

Hmm ok, still want to hear if you think Bingle could be scum here.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwegian, reads on the big pool?

I think Mena’s activity so far is very +town for them, and i’ll keep them as town unless i see a reason to consider otherwise. I’m also liking Pooky so far, but i’m not as confident on them as i am Mena.
As for Ydrasse, i’m thinking town but i really have no idea how they play as scum so low confidence read.
No Face probably looks the worst so far? But i’m not really wanting to vote them until i get more certain about my other reads and am sure i don’t want to vote elsewhere.
As for you i already said what i think.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Also i’m not sure how much of my scumread on No Face is based on actual scumminess VS just having no face/avatar and thus i naturally find them suspicious, shifty, like they got something to hide. >:)

[No Face]

Menalque Ydrasse Vanders skitter town :<

Infinity and Pooky?

[No Face]

VOTE: Pooky :)

[No Face]

No Face saw a lot of words and some of those words were written by Menalque on the page 1 where he posted like he didn't know about groups and didn't seem like he knew things scum would know, if he is faking it it was a convincing performance, but I think more likely Menalque is one of the town.

Another of those words were written by the Ydrasse, who seemed like she was having a lot of fun when there's a lot of pressure of being in the group of 6, the person in there could singlehandedly lose the game for the scum, so has more of a need or inkling in their head telling them to fake some things to talk about if someone is town or scum. Ydrasse has one or two reads but hasn't tried to fake any of these things that scum would feel the need to.

Vanders also wrote some words. He wanted to kill No Face :D because they weren't giving any information and I think the town ones are more likely to openly be the first to suggest the policy this early, he also seemed like he was genuine and believing when talking about how he wanted to kill in the 3 group so he would definitely see that flip of the scum to try and solve the rest of the game before any losses.

skitter felt left out so also wrote some words, and I felt special when she said she also likes Menalque and Vander for the similar reasons to why I do, and she's also playing this like not for the long term if she's scum. If Infinity dies today and is the town she probably dies tommorow because people think she's the scum. I think she would be more reserved and unsure like how Infinity was at the start if she was scum. Lean one way but don't commit to it. This is what Infinity was doing, but skitter seems like she really thinks Infinity is the scum right now.

Pooky has only talked about mech so far and I am waiting for the reads :)

Nor seemed too weird to be scum in his first 3 posts writes he made, like he was trying to look and act scummy, which is actually towny. But I am not so confident on him as the others.

Bingle has given okay reads but nothing that he has wrote makes me think definitely scum or town.

Pooky>Nor
Infinity>Bingle

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ok Hectic town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I also agree Skitter is the most likely town in the 3 group.

[No Face]

No Face read back on the post and realized there might be confusion about why No Face thinks Ydrasse is town for not trying to do anything while Pooky could be scum even though he isn't giving reads. This is because I count mech advice as faking something that scum thinks they can be townread from.