Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Bingle]

Pooky do you disagree with 971 972 or still think I'm scummy for it?_?

FWIW, the fact that you weren't looking at the ripcord I had to bail on the wagon is a major part of what I didn't like about you ignoring Pooky's attempt to get you to look at the gamestate. Like, there was a very clear answer to what Pooky was saying and you didn't put in the thought to find it.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm functionally the exact opposite. I'd rather have a suboptimal elimination and enough content to analyze later on, and I think your stance is an inherently silly one.

Also, I'm fully confident in my ability to force through a Pooky elim if I decide that's what I really want.

The vast majority of games I've played online have days much shorter than they tend to on this site, so we probably have different ideas of what it means to have enough content.

Obviously I'd prefer more content to less content, and I'm a pretty big believer in generally playing conservatively and not majjing people before they have a chance to claim etc, but I also think there is very clear value to having a full day of tallies that actually could mean something, including the chance of an occasional shorter day, than having a meta where everyone knows that votes that get made before like one irl day before deadline are all completely meaningless because no one is willing to maj anyone. That's my version of risking suboptimal eliminations to maximise content, and I am not even a big believer in voting analysis.

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

guys

we r killing in the 6p hood today

because if we hit the scum in the 3p hood, the scum shoot one of the players in the 3p hood, and tomm we r back to trying to find the scum in the 6p hood.

but if we hit the scum in the 6p hood, the game is over and we win.

I feel like it's best to aim for the 3p hood until we hit mafia there, since we're guaranteed to be able to find the mafia in there at some point before we lose, and we get more info that way. It doesn't really matter that if we hit scum immediately there we win, since that's going to be true whether or not we spend some lynches in the 3p pool first.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

when did you change your mind?

[No Face]

Pooky do you disagree with 971 972 or still think I'm scummy for it?_?

FWIW, the fact that you weren't looking at the ripcord I had to bail on the wagon is a major part of what I didn't like about you ignoring Pooky's attempt to get you to look at the gamestate. Like, there was a very clear answer to what Pooky was saying and you didn't put in the thought to find it.

What do you mean? You unvoted after Pooky and I had that discussion. I'm pretty sure I suggested multiple times that you could just unvote later and you could be distancing -]-

I don't like how I find myself arguing for why you two could be aligned though when it wasn't the point in the first place. I treat my reads independently and don't pre-flip analyse

[Bingle]

Bingle has just clearly implied that he's against early majorities, and he is almost certainly not the only one.

Not implied, outright stated.

I also made that clear earlier on, publicly, when in response to Pooky's little pool picks a lim plan I said it was a fine starting point but then we should discuss before actually deciding on a lim.

The ripcord I'm mentioning of course, is that when I started the Pooky train, I did so with the clear indication that my motivation for the push was information and weak gamestate evidence. Turning that read around would be trivial at functionally any point.

[Vanderscamp]

What do you expect me to do, demand to only vote people in the small pool?

I still do think it's mechanically best to do so but there are very clearly a bunch of people who are pretty strongly against it.
I have argued for it quite a bit, I would argue harder if I felt that it is mechanically worse than I think it is, but I've also said in other posts that you have neglected to quote that ultimately what I want to do is vote for the person I think is most likely to be evil, which is you.
I think the pool of three is objectively better but I think you are the most evil of any pool (possibly not when adjusted for the differing base scum percentages)

[Bingle]

pre-flip analyse

Pre flip analysis is actually super useful when you have limited scumteam options. For example, my vanders towncase. He doesn't have a viable scumpartner fmpov, therefore he is probably not scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

no I'm asking you when you changed your mind on which pool was best to elim in.

[Vanderscamp]

For clarification: I would argue harder to lynch into the small pool if I felt that lynching into the big pool is mechanically worse than I think it is.
I think it is worse but not horrible, and potentially fine if we have reads to justify it.

[No Face]

I see what you mean, Bangle. I didn't go looking for that because I was never trying to convince Pooky you two could be aligned in the first place, I think I got dragged into that later because the point kept coming up, but my main point was:

If Bingle does something with makes Pooky and Bingle less likely to be aligned
It means one of those reads of mine may be incorrect, it does not make me reevaluate and start townreading Pooky somehow, or not townreading others I had reasons to townread
:8

[No Face]

pre-flip analyse

Pre flip analysis is actually super useful when you have limited scumteam options. For example, my vanders towncase. He doesn't have a viable scumpartner fmpov, therefore he is probably not scum.

Yeah actually this specific setup makes it a lot more useful than it normally is

Hum de dum

[No Face]

:H

[No Face]

Maybe it's skitter because she's wrong on Infinity

I'm wielding my righteousness BOPingstar ','

[No Face]

That post is probably gonna be seen as scummy, oh no

I have doomed myself and the only escape now is a modkill. I'll post my role PM soon :<

[Vanderscamp]

no I'm asking you when you changed your mind on which pool was best to elim in.

In case I need to clarify this more:
I've always thought that lynching into the small pool first is going to be slightly better, and then I did the math and realized that it was better than I thought it was, 41% vs 45% which is far from nothing.
I don't think many of the arguments about lynching into the big pool first are sound. For example, it doesn't matter that small pool scum is not able to bus their partner in the big pool, since if we kill the big pool scum at a point in the game where that is true, we don't need that info since we have won anyway. Another argument that I think is bad is the idea that killing scum in the big pool immediately winning the game is a relevant point. If our reads on the big pool are good enough that that will happen today, it's pretty likely that we are still able to lynch that scum immediately later in the game no matter how many lynches we've spent up until that point in the small pool, and we won't risk a loss even if we completely fail in the small pool.


From a practical standpoint we don't have random reads so we don't need to play entirely by math, and unless there is a serious advantage to one option, we should kill our top evil read. I think up until I started scum reading you my preferred lynch was infinity, who I have since flipped on.
I think we should kill into the small pool if it's a close decision between two separate scum reads in different pools.


Additionally, the fact that there have been many people who are vocal about lynching into the big pool first means that if I think I'm not killing you here and I'm just going to get my preferred kill in the small pool after this, I might as well have my head in the sand because that is fairly clearly not the way this village is going.
I think I've spent a very large amount of time already talking about this, maybe more than anyone else in the game, to a point where it's counterproductive.


I think what you are doing here is trying to find reasons to suspect me.
I don't think anyone else in the game finds it odd that I'm not just dying on that hill and point blank refusing to vote anyone who isn't in the small pool.

[Bingle]

I see what you mean, Bangle. I didn't go looking for that because I was never trying to convince Pooky you two could be aligned in the first place, I think I got dragged into that later because the point kept coming up, but my main point was:

If Bingle does something with makes Pooky and Bingle less likely to be aligned
It means one of those reads of mine may be incorrect, it does not make me reevaluate and start townreading Pooky somehow, or not townreading others I had reasons to townread
:8

I understand that. I never thought that was unreasonable. The bit I didn't like was that you didn't even attempt to engage the logic. Pooky said "Look, I'm clearly unaligned with Bingle who is your biggest scumread in the other pool." and your response wasn't to look at that argument but to dismiss it out of hand on the basis that you TR'd everyone else in the big pool. I don't have the confidence that everyone you TR in the big pool is locktown. Nor do I have the confidence that you can't be wrong about a locktown read if indeed you are town. So you not even looking at the argument Pooky was making and trying to judge the merit behind it to solve Pooky pings. The original argument (the one about how I couldn't be partners with Pooky) was a shit one, but no one brought up the very obvious reason it was a shit one, which made me raise an eyebrow.

Both you and pooky are on that tier of "Hm. Maybe this is scum?" that makes me want to poke you with sticks and see if bees come out.

[No Face]

Pooky bringing up this whole debacle arguing why him and Bingle aren't aligned probably means they're not aligned funnily enough. It invites a lot of scrutiny and discussion on exactly that pairing, and why give town that opportunity to spot any S/S associatives... I'm unsure if that's stupid

What if it's actually skitter/Pooky and that's why they aren't hooded together

:€

[Bingle]

If I decide skitter is scum I will be voting locking my vote on Pooky because I'd feel pretty stupid after misyeeting skitter D1 if I was wrong.

[NorwegianboyEE]

i mean

it’s pro town if you’re town and we all decide you’re towny for it and don’t have to worry bout your alignment

Yeah but that doesn't seem to be the case and I should be ok with people SRing me, for future games you'll know that I can't play like this as scum

Sounds like town posting. Would be surprised if scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

My theory is that the hood distribution proves we have a ballsy player that wants to take on the big league and prove themselves in the small hood, and a more clever deepwolf that will be trying to sound town, harmless, and pocket town in the bigger hood.
Small hood is for the powerful bruiser, big hood for the long-living wolf.

Long story short is that i more or less townread other slots in the 6p group and i think Vanderscamp's not really towntold yet and could therefore be scum just faking mediocre content.

Norwee, can you tell me about how these two positions mesh?

Cause I firmly agree with the gamestate read and think it heavily implies the read on Vander is wrong.

Why would it make Vander read wrong?
I’m still looking at the potential for other slots to be scum, but going by information so far i’ve found Vanders sus. Mena has been playing relatively above their usual scum meta. Pooky’s not clear, Ydrasse seems townie by their tone and posts, No Face made good analyzis. Vanderscamp hasn’t done anything i’ve found townie yet. (Keep in mind i’m still at page 20 ish so maybe it will change)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

see this is what I'm talking about when I say you are tunneled in on one outcome aka Pooky scum and refuse to re-eval based on game state / new events.

Now you're like oh it can't be Bingle/Pooky so let's just slot it as Skitter/Pooky since the other 2 3Poolers have stated they are ok with flipping Pooky.

Instead of looking at game state to see whether the elim you are pushing is scum, you just change your theory to get the elim you want.

[No Face]

Norwee we've come so far from insta scumreading each other every game... No Face shed a few shadows :^

Pedit: I actually think your pushback was scummy though Pooky that's the thing... now it's not a poe read, it's a Pooky is doing something strange and scummy read

If Bingle's scum, it's probably with Vanders is my guess

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

uh when have you seen scum me push back on town you? I just pocket you dude