Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[No Face]

My heart wants me to stop believing in it but my head still thinks Pooky is scum T.T

[Vanderscamp]

but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%

Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.

[NorwegianboyEE]

the essence of his push on me isn't "I scumread Pooky"

it's I town-read everyone else for ___, ____, ____, and _____

It leaves one person out of the equation, notably that's himself.

It's an effective strategy for pushing mis-elims on d1 because you create a coalition/support by handing out townreads to get people to help you, and you create a mutual target for everyone to go after.

It's also incredibly difficult for me to defend against because he's not actually scum-reading me for anything, so there's nothing for me to refute

then tomm after I'm flipped town he will "go back" to his townreads and "think" about where he went wrong.

But why would he be scum doing it? It seems very genuine to me, and i’ve almost reached the same conclusion.

[Vanderscamp]

I said that stuff well before pushing on you.


So you have flipped from being "pretty sure I was a wrong townie who is really sure he is right" (which was also an incorrect take fwiw since I was not really sure at the time) to thinking I am the most scummy person outside of no face, because you (incorrectly) think that i have changed my opinion on which scum pool is better to lynch into, because you think that I am likely to just ignore the fact that no one (iirc) is voting a single person in the small pool and would just tunnel only wanting to kill into the small pool despite it being very unlikely that that's going to happen.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.

the way I read your push for my elim because "if you hit in the big pool you win the game and don't need info" made me feel like you were not only advocating for an elim in the 6 pool but you were also saying its fine to do it quickly - which is a convenient take given the game state.

[Vanderscamp]

My heart wants me to stop believing in it but my head still thinks Pooky is scum T.T

What I just said, and the thing nor just posted, is why I suspect pooky.

His reasoning for his thoughts are either absent, or if they are not absent, are not believeable reasons for thinking the things he says he does.

[Vanderscamp]

I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.

the way I read your push for my elim because "if you hit in the big pool you win the game and don't need info" made me feel like you were not only advocating for an elim in the 6 pool but you were also saying its fine to do it quickly - which is a convenient take given the game state.

Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

This is you pushing for a quick-hammer on me today.

You say one of the big reasons for this is because we won't need information if I flip scum because the game will be over.

This statement is objectively true but I know I'm not flipping scum so you kind of will need information and it's not good to rush this.

From an uninformed town perspective without knowledge of my alignment which is what you should have, you don't know whether the elim target is scum or town, so you want more information anyway.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.

are you talking about where you say we should always elim whoever is the most suspicious?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But why would he be scum doing it? It seems very genuine to me, and i’ve almost reached the same conclusion.

Scum!him needs a mis-elim to get to day 2.

town!him wants to sort my alignment and get the right elim.

There's no way to have a conversation about a POE elim if he insists on tunneling it all the way through.

[Vanderscamp]

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

This is you pushing for a quick-hammer on me today.

You say one of the big reasons for this is because we won't need information if I flip scum because the game will be over.

This statement is objectively true but I know I'm not flipping scum so you kind of will need information and it's not good to rush this.

From an uninformed town perspective without knowledge of my alignment which is what you should have, you don't know whether the elim target is scum or town, so you want more information anyway.

I agree, more information is better than less information.

And I talked about this in the rest of my post, I'm not willing to live in a meta where the entire day contains no information because people are unwilling to ever lynch anyone early (idk if this should even count as early) and scum are aware of this.

I'm not sure how to really respond to this?
Yes, if I knew you were town, I would not want to quick hammer you.
I do want to quick hammer you because I think you are mafia and I would rather lynch the people I suspect.

This is why I'm your 2nd top scum now?

[Vanderscamp]

Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.

are you talking about where you say we should always elim whoever is the most suspicious?

No, I mean the posts earlier when you ask me which pool I think is best to lynch into and then I give you very detailed answers (before the part where you incorrectly state what my answer was)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

we are not even 2 days into a 14 day deadline why are you trying to push a quick hammer?

[Vanderscamp]

Basically everything you are talking about now, I clarified on page 41 (starting from about #1001 if your pages are different)

[Vanderscamp]

we are not even 2 days into a 14 day deadline why are you trying to push a quick hammer?

Ok, that is pretty early.
I wasn't aware of how long we had or even really how long we have been playing.



So here's my question to you: if it is so absurdly early to lynch someone, why should no case have needed to re evaluate you and bingle being together from bingle expressing suspicion onto you and voting you? Because he can very easily change his mind and unvote, which is for the most part what has actually happened.

[NorwegianboyEE]

You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.

This really isn't true :<

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you think quick elims can't possibly happen?


When a town player votes and that wagon gathers steam esp from people they suspect and in a ruleset where bussing results in auto-lose how does a town player not re-evaluate at that point?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?

[Vanderscamp]

Do you think quick elims can't possibly happen?


When a town player votes and that wagon gathers steam esp from people they suspect and in a ruleset where bussing results in auto-lose how does a town player not re-evaluate at that point?

I think no case has given a pretty satisfactory answer to this question.....

[Vanderscamp]

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?

If you got lynched does that make Mena's "push on you" aggressive too?

[Vanderscamp]

You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.

This really isn't true :<

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

I think a huge amount of what he's saying is disingenuous!

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Pooky because what they just said about no face's scum read on them really made no sense at all.
This should be E-1

Hmm i don’t think it’s a bad wagon, but i’m also not really willing to let the day end yet if that makes sense.

[NorwegianboyEE]

And if Pooky flips town it wouldn’t be too telling since it seems everyone in the 6P scumreads Pooky to some extent.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Pooky if you want the reasons why I think you could be scum and have been on the back of No Face's mind:

In the last coalition game you played as town, you were really excited about the prospect of a day 1 win and actively pushed hard for it. But while doing this you were also outting lots of reads are trying to win the game by finding town and scum

In this game, you acted similarly about the big day 1 win but did nothing to help it like giving reads or finding town/scum. It's like you're going through the motions but not doing the fieldwork I saw you were eager to do in that coalition game

:/

I like this though. And i think Pooky’s continued push on No Face here and characterizing their push as aggressive or somehow unfounded is a bit dirty.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Yes, I hate this wagon so much

Why is this a thing

Basically anyone on the wagon bar maybe ydrasse would be a better wagon

Literally why

If you’re town and at least two of you are why are you throwing

Ok i take that back. Mena is the token resistance.