Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[NorwegianboyEE]

Mena you're 0.01% to like any reason I give for a scumread. I gave some vague feelings about why I don't TR pooky here but really it's just gut. I don't think reasons that make Objective Sense™ to SR people are at all useful because scum can just think of them and avoid them

I think this is why Mena hates everything i do. Cus i rarely have objectively and completely unpersonal reasons for scumreading slots.

[NorwegianboyEE]

none of me, no face, norwee, or vanders is notably more towny than pooky

Are you fucking high?

[Menalque]

I’m looking forward to you getting fully caught up, norwee

[NorwegianboyEE]

Pooky didn't really solve in matrix decipher hmm

They usually solve as town though

VOTE: mena PoE baybee

(Also jingle voting pooky is a bit worrying for me so this is probably correct, mena coming in and being upset after the soul circle thing is scummy)

Why is that scummy for Mena?

[Infinity 324]

Not really?

Pooky is saying that No Face not reading into my willingness to eliminate Pooky as a possible argument for PookyTown presents itself as proof that No Face isn't actually attempting to read Pooky.

Me unvoting Pooky could mean that I could be scum with Pooky FYPOV, but that doesn't particularly detract from the argument that Pooky is making because at the time that No Face started pushing Pooky I was the biggest proponent of the elimination. Using my unvote to justify the behavior that came before my unvote is backwards logic, unless you also want to argue that NF knew I was going to unvote.

Hence, both Pooky and No Face are fairly scummy. In the world where Pooky is town, he raises some valid points about No Face. In the world where No Face is town, there is still circumstantial evidence that flipping Pooky is a strong play.

Does someone want to towncase Y for me? I'm a bit gunshy on townreading her based on a genuine attempt to gamesolve D1 for reasons I can't go into atm, and would be grateful for explanation.

Bingle is saying this but not considering distancing is just a thing. A simple vote and early push isn't gonna make me rule out Bingle/Pooky as a scumteam. If Bingle is committed to it and really pushing it, sure, that means something, but Bingle didn't do nearly enough to rule that out as SvS, and he in fact unvoted later, proving that yes, it is easy for scum to distance and they can in fact change their votes and/or mind later. It's not like Bingle's committed to throwing out Pooky with that initial post

He has both Pooky and No Face bottom of his reads, he could totally just justify voting for me over Pooky eventually

I'm not sure if Pooky/Bingle are aligned but the point is, they definitely could be, and it's silly to assume I should rule that out

I do think Bingle is scum though "_"

Mena this feels like a towny post to me, I guess you came around to no face but still. My baseline for town!hectic isn't bleeding obvtown, he's had some solid content and I want to trust ydrasse.

[Infinity 324]

-The exclamation mark read by Infinity is unironically good

The fact that you had to add the word unironically here makes me embarrassed about how heavily I'm weighting the read

[Infinity 324]

If I'm right about norwee you read him the same way as gamma. As town he'll make posts which show he's thinking but aren't something scum would be expected to get TRed for. It's really easy to recognize once you see it.

[Infinity 324]

Maybe it's skitter because she's wrong on Infinity

Hectic I s2g

[skitter30]

Ok i have some thoughts and i think that examining the pooky wagon is key to understanding this game:

- i think it happened way too quickly to be natural, and from my pov given thay both infinity and bingle were on it, its inherently scum fueled
- a lot of the reasoning at the time seems to be related to the fact that pooky wasnt townie enuf, esp. as compares to other members of the 6p pool, which i found to be kinda silly because: a) he's basically always dead null at this stage of the game ime, i usually dont even try to sort him until day2 or later, and b) other people in the 6p hadnt at the time (and/or still havent) towntold

Going thru the votes/players on it:
- ydra is just kinda townie - she's around and keeping up, but has real content and isnt just fluffposting. Its clear that contributing to solving yhe game and sorting people is motivating her posting
- vander: the e1 vote was gross but i still like the early game and seems to actually believe his reasons for pushing pooky, and similarly really seems to believe the mechanics he's pushing. I think he has a scummy looking playstyle and in this pl might be flipbait; wpuldnt vote him today
Nor - dont remember his vote or like anything he's said
No face - also dont remeber his vote. Gonna be honest my vote last night was lazy off of some scummy vibes i was getting from him but i feel like i can do better so UNVOTE:
- infinity: also didnt like the e1 but upon taking a step back and having time to reflect, and also seeing how she's interacting with the game and other slots, i think i was annoyed at her more than anything else. I agree that she's probably out of her scumrange and cant keep up like this in real time and probably just avoids posting if scum tbh. Or makes like random ineffectual comments that dont really have thought behind the and dont really go anywhere
Bingle bingle bingle: i'm also kinda getting an agenda-driven vibe from him tbh. From the start he's been very adament abt pushing in the 6p for mechanical reasons, and he's using this as an excuse to avoid sorting in the 3p. More than that, he entered the game using the fact that me and pooky are in different hoods as a springboard to push pooky. Combined it kinda makes me wonder if the hoods were designed this way on purpose, to create a reason to push him in that pt while using the mechanical reasoning to avoid having to push/sort me at the same time. Also if infinity is town he's kinda just scum

Offwagon:
Pooky - tbqh if he's controlling which pt people are sorted into he puts me in the same one as him like always to chill and shitpost with me, irregardless of how he thinks i might view that and/or whether or not i might decide to push him for it. We're not in the same pt so town
Mena: i think the high energy real time stream of thought is very +town for him, esp since it doesnt really seem to be agenda driven, he's just kinda saying whatever pops into his head. Also if he were scum he would be kissing up to me more i think but isnt in that he isnt really sitting around waiting for me opinions / acting like i'm the key person he needs to interact with like in panic room + he osnt really hesitating to challenge my reads so i think +town

I want to go here for now: VOTE: bingle
I still think that sorting in the 3p is better tbh, from my pov i have a 50/50 chance of getting it right today and at worst get it tomorrow and i still am unconvinced that 6p is better than that

[Infinity 324]

But why would he be scum doing it? It seems very genuine to me, and i’ve almost reached the same conclusion.

Jingle now it's impossible for all of us to be scum

[Infinity 324]

Why is that scummy for Mena?

It's not scummy for mena in particular, but if someone's tone is off after something really good happened for town then that's scummy

He was just in not a great mood though so now I feel bad about bringing it up

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m saying this wagon is trash because there’s no reason to suspect pooky over multiple others in the 6p pool, and therefore the incredible ease with which he arrived at e-1 WITHOUT good reasons is a good reason to think now that he’s town

I don’t think there’s no reason. But your point that it’s too easy is a decent point.

[Vanderscamp]

It seems very very obvious to me, even more so than before, that this player pool can reasonably expect there to be a <5% chance that any of the votes up until now are going to lead to an early majority.

I don't expect my E-1 vote to come across as exceptionally towny to everyone, but if my vote is getting the reaction that it did, what the hell kind of reaction can we expect from an early hammer?

From what people have said it seems like this player list is not exactly loaded with wild cards, so I have the very strong opinion that scum have had no reason at all to be afraid to bus at this stage of the game as hard as they wan without basically any fear of repercussion

Does anyone disagree with this?
Because I'm just very confused why people think that any of the voting or pushes so far mean anything at all in terms of eliminating scum combinations considering how meaningless it seems to be in this meta.

[Infinity 324]

The downside is that if you change your mind later it might look suspicious.

[Vanderscamp]

The downside is that if you change your mind later it might look suspicious.

Do you think that this player pool is comprised of people who are not competent enough to figure out how to re evaluate on people without sounding suspicious?
Or, better yet, do you think there's a single person in this player pool who is bad enough at scum to not be able to do that?

[Infinity 324]

They're competent enough, but it's still a downside. No matter how competent you are, someone could scumread you for changing your read at a convenient time so that's a risk you have to take. You don't really know what your partner will do that you'll be able to townread. I'm just saying that I'd much prefer to start off townreading my partner if I was scum here.

[Vanderscamp]

I think especially considering how much everybody talked about bussing being impossible in this set, any scum who thinks they're capable of it is much more tempted than they otherwise would be to distance from their partner, knowing that it's very unlikely to amount to anything and it will pay dividends later.
This is a wifom assumption, but I think it's pretty clear that scum should at least not be less incentivized to have bussed so far, two days into a 14 day D1, unless I am severely misreading the meta of this site.

And if bussing has happened so far this game it obviously has already paid dividends given what a large % of players have been saying.

[Infinity 324]

If I ruled out a scumteam pair due solely to bussing and the player in the 3p changes their mind, you bet that pair will shoot to the top of my list.

[Vanderscamp]

If I ruled out a scumteam pair due solely to bussing and the player in the 3p changes their mind, you bet that pair will shoot to the top of my list.

Will it, though?

Because Bingle did essentially exactly this with Pooky, and even though Pooky's reasoning while under pressure has been atrocious, multiple people are talking about how the Pooky wagon was too easy and there was too little resistance to it from the 3p group.

[Infinity 324]

I'm thinking about that pair really hard and will think about it even harder if jingle votes an alternative to pooky and pooky somehow doesn't get limmed.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 1.4

PookyTheMagicalBear (3) - No Face, Ydrasse, Vanderscamp
No Face (1) - PookyTheMagicalBear
Vanderscamp (1) - NorwegianboyEE
Bingle (1) - skitter30
NorwegianboyEE (1) - Menalque

Not voting (2) - Bingle, Infinity 324

(expired on 2021-04-20 14:23:00) remain until day end

skitter30 is perpetually V/LA on Fridays and Saturdays.

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to reach a majority.

[Menalque]

I think it's pretty clear that scum should at least not be less incentivized to have bussed so far,

Да

[NorwegianboyEE]

oh my god the one time i am confident and you all scorn me

Haha, Ydrasse reads amirite? xD

[NorwegianboyEE]

I haven't even pushed you until I gave you multiple chances to re-evaluate your push on me in the light of new information and seeing that you chose to ignore it each and every time I have no alternative but to see this as a scum motivated push to kill and not genuine in trying to sort me.

Is this another read where you randomly catch scum but suck at explaining it, or just a wrong/bad push?

[No Face]

I can't get over that "scum-motivated push to kill" part '.x