newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[Demainer]

I know this is confbias but Iyveo is seriously pinging me with that post.

It focuses entirely on me and Egix, and doesn't mention Saudade or endless at all.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I have been thinking about the two possibilities,

1)

Clasko is fake claiming

If someone counter claims Clasko, then I am leaning towards if being Clasko + Demainer, but I will need to see who counter claims to really form a hard opinion.

2)

Clasko is the cop

That clears Clasko and Egix.
Leaving: - Bell - Demainer - Endlessdark slot - Ivyeo - Me

If no one counter claims Clasko, I am less pressed on it being Demainer, because a good portion of my suspicion of him came from Demainer and Clasko both appearing to clear / pull suspicion off of one another. Those worries would be assuaged.

To me, that would indicate that there is 0 to 1 scum between Demainer and Ivy. I do not see Demainer and Ivy being a pair, they have both voted the other, and in Demainer's case at least, it was done before there would be a need for scum to bus one another.

That would mean that there must be 1 to 2 scum between Bell and Endless dark (from my PoV, I don't need to consider me as an option lol) Before this analysis, I had Saudede listed higher on my scum/town scale, but now I am looking back under the assumption that at least one of Saudede or Endlessdark were scum. I noticed that Saudede made it clear that he did not think it was Ahri or Wheme on Day 1, and tried to push the vote towards Demainer. This kinda makes me a bit less suspicious of him seeing as how both Ahri and Wheme did in fact flip town. That narrows the gap, so I now have him and endless at about the same place for me.

So now I am looking back at Bell/Saudede's posts and Endless's posts based on the assumption that one of them is bad, and with that in mind the possible pairs from my PoV mind are:

• Clasko + Demainer (if Clasko is CC)
  
  
  Endlessdark
  + almost anyone Like I could see him paired with Ivy/Demainer/or
  Saudede
  
  
  
  Saudede
  Bell + Ivy

My head is starting to hurt trying to decide between endlessdark and saudede, so I think I'm gonna wait a bit more to give other people a chance to react to Clasko's Cop claim. Ivy, Bell, and

Endlessdark

have not yet chimed in

[Demainer]

Whilst I agree that we have a wolf in the saudade/endless pair, we have one more elim until lylo, I'm still not decided at all on which of them is the wolf.

After a re-iso on saudade and endless, I can see them being w/w. I just find it difficult to wrap my head around ivyeo being a villager.

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

vote count 2.2

Demainer (2):

Bell, Ivyeo

Ivyeo (1):

Demainer

Lukewarm (1):

Clasko

endlessdark (1):

Egix96

not voting (2):

endlessdark, Lukewarm

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate a player. day 2 ends april 16th at 3:30 central US time; in (expired on 2021-04-16 03:30:00)

mod notes

• i plan to extend the deadline for a replacement such that the new player gets at least 48 hours

[/area]

[schadd_]

fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)

[Clasko]

Okay, so if I'm right in thinking that Bellslot and Luke are town, and that Ivyeo and Demain are not SvS, then that leaves endlessdark as scum.

Does this mean you believe the remaining wolf is in Ivyeo/Demainer? Or are you still thinking on that?

[fferyllt]

Greetings Gentlebeings!

catching up!

But before I do that, where did you go, Bell?

[Clasko]

Greetings Gentlebeings!

Whoops, almost missed this.

Hello~

[fferyllt]

UNVOTE: Ivyeo - They spoke; I'm happy.

S'ppose I'll poke an SE now:

VOTE: Egix96 - Hi. Feeling any town vibes from anyone? Or too soon to say, do you reckon?

I guess the above question applies to anyone who's around, really...

Saudade feels town so far - I can imagine the gears turning in his brain when I read his posts.

I'm feeling tempted to put Ahri in null-town for memeing about being scum, though admittedly it's a bit shaky.

Is Wheme simply being voted for making an apparent self-contradiction in his first post? Personally, I'm not finding that to be an issue, on a "scum would be more careful about contradicting themselves" level.

As for you, Clasko, I'm curious as to what your own thoughts are - considering that you haven't played in a long time, I imagine you would be eager to contribute.

I kinda like this from Egix. Which is interesting, because I was predisposed to view him with squinty eyes. We'll see where this goes.

considering that you haven't played in a long time, I imagine you would be eager to contribute.

The two aren't mutually exclusive from where I'm standing. If anything I'm more nervous due to being out of the game for a long time.

I'm curious as to what your own thoughts are.

(/T) - Town-lean:

(/T) on Demainer AND WhemeStar - their argument feels cyclical and non-scripted = less chance to be W v. W; also sparking discussion evidenced by Ivyeo's 79.
(/T) on Lukewarm - contributes to discussion and I like the tone of their posts.

I'm forming opinions on others that I don't want to give words to just yet. Stay tuned.

This post gives me townfeels. I like that he's put down early townreads. That's a lot of reads to potentially walk back if scum.

I kinda don't like Lukewarm and Demainer based on posts through page 6. Although I do like Lukewarm's 143? Gives me a sense of why he was pushing so hard to get someone to E-1 & claim and that point - that the game's pacing is different from what he's used to.

I kinda like Saudade's page 7 run of posts. Before that, not so much.

I love Saudade's reaction to the Wheme wagon re-gathering steam on page 11. But, I really hate Bell's entrance and his going a day without posting. Real life is a thing, though.

Demainer's posts bug me a lot. The Ahri nk looks like PR hunting to me, and could point to an SE slot, but we have some newbies in this game who are clearly not inexperienced.

Ivy's kinda wishy-washy but not overtly scum to me.

My townreads are egix, and Lukewarm, and I'm taking clasko's claim at face value. I'm glad I got to the egix read before seeing the cop clear! I might be firing on more than a couple cylinders this game!

I don't do hero solves, but this is day 2 with only townflips so...scum team Bell, Demainer? I want to look closer at the Saudade/Demainer interactions on day 1.

[fferyllt]

Hmm. That page 7 I liked was Saudade going after Demainer.

maybe not.

[fferyllt]

Okay, I have been thinking about the two possibilities,

1)

Clasko is fake claiming

If someone counter claims Clasko, then I am leaning towards if being Clasko + Demainer, but I will need to see who counter claims to really form a hard opinion.

2)

Clasko is the cop

That clears Clasko and Egix.
Leaving: - Bell - Demainer - Endlessdark slot - Ivyeo - Me

If no one counter claims Clasko, I am less pressed on it being Demainer, because a good portion of my suspicion of him came from Demainer and Clasko both appearing to clear / pull suspicion off of one another. Those worries would be assuaged.

To me, that would indicate that there is 0 to 1 scum between Demainer and Ivy. I do not see Demainer and Ivy being a pair, they have both voted the other, and in Demainer's case at least, it was done before there would be a need for scum to bus one another.

That would mean that there must be 1 to 2 scum between Bell and Endless dark (from my PoV, I don't need to consider me as an option lol) Before this analysis, I had Saudede listed higher on my scum/town scale, but now I am looking back under the assumption that at least one of Saudede or Endlessdark were scum. I noticed that Saudede made it clear that he did not think it was Ahri or Wheme on Day 1, and tried to push the vote towards Demainer. This kinda makes me a bit less suspicious of him seeing as how both Ahri and Wheme did in fact flip town. That narrows the gap, so I now have him and endless at about the same place for me.

So now I am looking back at Bell/Saudede's posts and Endless's posts based on the assumption that one of them is bad, and with that in mind the possible pairs from my PoV mind are:

• Clasko + Demainer (if Clasko is CC)
  
  
  Endlessdark
  + almost anyone Like I could see him paired with Ivy/Demainer/or
  Saudede
  
  
  
  Saudede
  Bell + Ivy

My head is starting to hurt trying to decide between endlessdark and saudede, so I think I'm gonna wait a bit more to give other people a chance to react to Clasko's Cop claim. Ivy, Bell, and

Endlessdark

have not yet chimed in

I like your thought process, but I'd be really surprised if Clasko is fake claiming under no pressure to speak of.

If Demainer and Bell don't make sense as scum together based on Saudade's page 7, that puts Ivy in the frame for me.

I'm gonna have to meta Saudade for partner interactions, I guess.

[Ivyeo]

At this point I'm willing to go for Demainer and wait for the flip, I still don't like their posts on their merit, rather than who they can be paired with

[Demainer]

Didn't you say you were going to share your thoughts on other players? After your last post focused entirely on me and Egix.

[fferyllt]

In this game, Saudade doesn't interact with his scumbuds and doesn't vote them. He said he was playing differently from usual due to out of game reasons. He trolled quite a bit.

This game is similar - very little interaction, no vote on scumbuds.

This isn't a full meta dive because I'm mostly interested in just figuring out if Demainer/Saudade make sense as a scum team given Saudade's page 7.

My conclusion is they don't make a whole lot of sense as a team given Saudade's most recent scum games.

But I definitely don't townread Bell. :/

I might wind up meta-ing a few more games.

-----------------------

@Demainer

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

Can you explain why you think Saudade/Ivy make sense together?

[Lukewarm]

At this point, enough people have commented without anyone counter claiming Clasko, that I am going to trust his claim.

That means Clasko and Egix are 100% clear, and I know I am clear, so our two scum are found somewhere in the mix of :

• Demainer, Ivy, and out new friends Bell and fferyllt.

I stand by my statement that I can't picture Demainer and Ivy as partners. I am also leaning against against Bell and Fferylly being partnered as well.

I think the mafia teams that make the most sense to me are
-Bell + Ivy
-fferylly + Ivy
-fferylly + demainer

I am going to do a break down of how I am imaging the different possibilities playing out

Spoiler:

Ivy and fferylly are on two of the possibilities, which would give us a more clear path to victory if we flip them first.

If we flip Ivy or fferylly: (plugging in Ivy, but could be either)

• Ivy flips scum today / mafia kills tonight
  day 3 there are 5 alive, 1 scum between bell and fferylly. we kill one, and get it wrong / Mafia kills night 3
  Day 4 starts, there are 3 alive, and we know the mafia is which ever of bell and fferylly are still alive
  Town Win!
  
  
  Ivy flips town today / mafia kills tonight
  Day 3 starts, there are 5 alive, but we know the mafia pair is fferylly + demainer
  Town Win!

Alternatively, demainer or bell are each in one pair only, which leaves with a possible lose if we flip them first (using demainer as the example)

• Demainer flips scum / mafia kill
  we enter day 3 with 5 alive/1 scum, which would be fferylly
  Town Win!
  
  
  Demainer flips town / mafia kills
  we enter day 3 with 5 alive/2 scum, we are on lynch or lose and the scum is someone out of Bell, Ivy, or fferylly. we lynch ivy, mafia kills
  enter day 4, 3 alive and there is a scum between Bell and fferylly, and we don't know which it is
  50/50 win or lose

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

This logic all hinges on people agreeing that those are the three possible pairs of course, but for now I think I am going to say

VOTE: Ivy

[fferyllt]

Bell, maybe I'm being too hard on you. You did post something similar to your reads list here in the Warehouse 13 game.

I disliked the post because it's kind of esoteric for a newbie game. That plus 3 posts after you replace in and nothing since then looks a little low energy.

Real life, though.

I need more from you.

[Egix96]

Does this mean you believe the remaining wolf is in Ivyeo/Demainer?

Yes.

[fferyllt]

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.

[Demainer]

In this game, Saudade doesn't interact with his scumbuds and doesn't vote them. He said he was playing differently from usual due to out of game reasons. He trolled quite a bit.

This game is similar - very little interaction, no vote on scumbuds.

This isn't a full meta dive because I'm mostly interested in just figuring out if Demainer/Saudade make sense as a scum team given Saudade's page 7.

My conclusion is they don't make a whole lot of sense as a team given Saudade's most recent scum games.

But I definitely don't townread Bell. :/

I might wind up meta-ing a few more games.

-----------------------

@Demainer

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

Can you explain why you think Saudade/Ivy make sense together?

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.

My vote today is based on who I think has the highest probability of being scum. Is a saudade/endless team possible? Yes. But, i'm more convinced the scum team is ivyeo + saudade/endless.

[fferyllt]

Does this mean you believe the remaining wolf is in Ivyeo/Demainer?

Yes.

Do they make sense as a team to you? Because you're scumreading town atm.

[Demainer]

I don't think we should elim endless/ffery. I am interested in ffery's thoughts on ivy.

[fferyllt]

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

As I said, some of the newbies here may be new to MS, but show a level of game sophistication that isn't new to mafia. You, for instance.

The kill does kinda make sense as anti-spew, but I feel like Ahri would have been a possible miselim based on her day 1 play, which would have to be weighed up as well.

I tend to be meh about spew, though. One of my few skills as scum is misdirection regarding my partners.

[Egix96]

Demainer can you answer post #40

You unvoted immediately after endlessdark made two posts that barely said anything. Scummy move

Hmm, this doesn't feel like it's scum with endless.

[Egix96]

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

[Lukewarm]

Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)

I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.

While either choice would work logically, I am much more leaning towards voting out Ivy today. I mean you have generated more discussions in the like 3 hours you have been in the game, then Ivy has generated in the whole of Day 2. Regardless of your alignment, keeping you in the game seems more likely to keep the thread from dying lol

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.

Even though I am no longer advocating we vote you out, I still gotta say, there is something about your posts that just feel...

off

... to me lol