newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

Also, if I'm wrong about Saudade and Bell is scum, then the nature of interaction between Saudade and Lukewarm make a {Bell, Lukewarm} team possible, and both Demainer and Ivy unlikely scum partners. This is actually my nightmare scenario if tomorrow is 3-2 elo.

[Egix96]

Do you remember Wisdom or was he before your time?

I think I might have seen that name on this site from randomly snooping around in the past, but no, I presume you're not talking about the other Wisdom, the Swedish one from MU.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

Hmmmmmmm
Idk, there's that Mini I was in earlier this year where one of the masons wrongly accused me of being a deepwolf using similar reasoning. I'm erring on the side of Luke having a similar approach to myself in that regard.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

But then again, why isn't she fighting back if they want to leave as much distance as possible? Even if it's an intentionally weak push just so that it doesn't risk Demain going down first.

[Egix96]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Demainer

Sighhh I'm back to being unsure.

[fferyllt]

But then again, why isn't she fighting back if they want to leave as much distance as possible? Even if it's an intentionally weak push just so that it doesn't risk Demain going down first.

She is voting him, so there's that.

I expected her to switch to me at some point though, since I became her counterwagon. It makes sense for her to do that as either alignment. And it makes sense for me to vote her, as well. I just can't see her as the most likely scum in this gamestate. Your vote changes that dynamic, but that was where my head was at when I saw the last VC.

[fferyllt]

I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.

Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.

My insomnia brain worked overtime last night, so I don't feel like I have much more to say about what's transpired in the game. I did some thread data checks to see if I could poke holes in my theories this morning, but that's basically done. Although my reads could change based on what hits the thread going forward, don't feel like you have to wait on more catch up from me at this point.

Egix, in terms of your deep wolf scruples, if you want to see where my theory thoughts come from, you can read my wiki Terms of Art regarding trajectory analysis. It's kind of a corollary of the last paragraph of that section. Lukewarm's play borders on that. And like I said, I probably wouldn't go there if I felt there were good candidates for Ivy partners. Demainer's the only possible candidate to me, and that's not a slam-dunk.

I feel like the gamestate leads to my slot as the likeliest candidate for an Ivy partner, but my role PM says nope. If Ivy's flipped and is town, I don't think that clears me to the extent that my flip could clear Ivy, and that's the source of some extremely unwelcome fatalism on my part. If Ivy is town and she's flipped today, I feel like I'm still a strong miselim candidate for tomorrow at elo.

On the other hand, if I'm flipped then my reads become confirmed town reads and I hope that town players would give them some serious weight on day 3.

Egix unvoting me (at least for now) changes the calculus somewhat, but I'm not convinced it's a good thing^tm for town if I'm alive on day 3.

fatalism is a terrible drug, kids. don't do it.

[Demainer]

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

There just has to be a conspiracy for everything.

I'm staying on ivy. ff pushing me and ivy w/w and luke as deepwolf reeks of desperation. It's literally the only way to justify not having ivy as the elim.

My guess is the scum team has a blocker and they can't risk having someone on the team die tonight. Not before they take out clasko.

[Demainer]

The progression case is not convincing at all.

[Demainer]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

[Demainer]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

[fferyllt]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

One of the three of us is almost certainly today's elim. if you're town then Ivy's scum equity necessarily goes up. But, I don't know that. I have to extrapolate from the thread data.

[Ivyeo]

Rereading from where I left off rn

[Demainer]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

One of the three of us is almost certainly today's elim. if you're town then Ivy's scum equity necessarily goes up. But, I don't know that. I have to extrapolate from the thread data.

Which three?

[fferyllt]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

Have a look at my user title. trajectory is my thing and I made it a thing at MS. Some people fetishize VCA, which I'm never going to put much stock in unless it's a trajectory-based analysis of wagons. Which I hardly ever do, myself, because it's insanely intensive in most game settings.

Anyway I'm metaphorically giving you my strongest "math teacher staring down a rather long nose at your sad algebra attempt" look over your pseudoconspiracy characterization.

[quote="Demainer"
Which three?[/quote]

Ivy, you and me.

[fferyllt]

quote fail.

Which three?

Ivy, you and me.

[Ivyeo]

^^ I townread this when I did my first readthrough, especially where she was talking about her reads. I felt like she was showing her analysis, and although it's not really deep analysis, there's definitely some thinking-through that seems efforty for newbscum.

but video mafia for a few weeks, depending on frequency could be a fair bit of game experience even though video/in person is fast and pretty different from text based/forum mafia with long game days.

Played maybe 4 or 5 games a week for a month or two, but each gaame was also a "mini mafia" game which was fast even for video mafia, I just couldn't really keep up with it and felt more like I was just bringing my team down. So I do have experience, but I don't think it really relates here.

As for the consistency, it's consistent in that something about it just sorta felt off

I come in and go from a null read to a POE scumread within a page and the comment it elicited was something about if I was going to put her at E-1.

(idk how to do the qoute thing where you break it into multiple statements so ig I'll just use quote blocks)
I can assure you there is a reason I was asking about e-1, I wanted to know if I should claim sooner rather than later so town knows if I'm VT or PR

Ivy's inactivity could be fatalism, or deliberate.

Mostly like, a fuckton of things all coming up these past few days and aaaaaaaa. Still trying to keep up and read though.

As for my vote, Demainer still appears the most likely scum for me. Most of the points I made earlier still being my opinion. FF has shown at times to being pushing for a handful of people at once, but they still seem to be looking for the scummiest of them all.

[Demainer]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

Have a look at my user title. trajectory is my thing and I made it a thing at MS. Some people fetishize VCA, which I'm never going to put much stock in unless it's a trajectory-based analysis of wagons. Which I hardly ever do, myself, because it's insanely intensive in most game settings.

Anyway I'm metaphorically giving you my strongest "math teacher staring down a rather long nose at your sad algebra attempt" look over your pseudoconspiracy characterization.

[quote="Demainer"
Which three?

Ivy, you and me.[/quote]

The progression is almost nonexistent. You spent most of the day distancing yourself from outright identifying someone as scum, keeping your options open. You mentioned in passing that you didn't like ivy's inactivity, but you completely skirted my question on why you couldn't be on a team w/ ivy.

Then, 180. Immediately jump onto me and luke/ivy scumteam for absolutely zero reason to justify the change in opinion, zero progression. The entire post is just about how luke is actually a dw, and I started a d2 bus on ivy because we were "exposed". Zero mention of your thoughts on ivy and why you think she is or isn't w/w with everyone else.

[Demainer]

This is the def of a pseudoconspiracy, it doesn't even feel like a genuine opinion on things, reading this I can feel that the last two sentences were written first before everything else.

[Demainer]

Everything in that post is just to justify the end result.

[fferyllt]

I can't be scum with Ivy because I'm town.

End of discussion afaiac.

Demainer, Ivy's last post kinda nailed something for me and I was going to just go ahead and vote you here and now.

This is kinda your last chance to convince me that's a bad idea. Discrediting me isn't going to do it for me.

[fferyllt]

I've been in the game a little over 24 hours and I've been reading and rereading isos obsessively for most of my time spent on the game.

This compresses my thought processes, and mercurial read changes are a side effect of processing speed.

I feel like I've put plenty of reasoning down, though, whether you like how I reason or not!

Egix and Clasko are the only reads I can't make myself reexamine, though I have a tiny niggle in that Clasko seemed to soften their scumread of Egix before the end of day 1, and yet that's who they copped. But, I have a couple theories on why that could happen and I'm not interested in poking there at all.

Saudade's play here vs his 2 recent scum games makes that slot less likely scum IMO. Outside of egix/clasko the only player I think makes sense as scum with that slot is Lukewarm just because of the minimalist, reactive way he interacted with scumbuds in the games I looked at.

And that's why my reads are what they are.

[fferyllt]

If you're town, then my nightmare scenario may be real. :/

I really wish I had more sorting time with Bell because I would love to be able to take that scenario off the table.

[fferyllt]

and on the gripping hand, you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive, and I really wish I didn't feel that way because it clouds my perceptions of other players. I don't self-vote, but I definitely don't fight my elim as hard as I could when I feel this way.

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: fferyllt

They have posted so much information/analysis, and then their final conclusion was

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Which I honestly cannot understand how a town could come to either one of those final conclusions. Either way, you have to assume that one of the scum players came into day 2 ready to bus their partner for no reason. Either Demainer bussing Ivy or me bussing Demainer. Your final pairs make 0 sense to me as town, so I am therefore left to assume that you are scum who was put into a hard position (you replaced into a slot that was already under fire from a confirmed town).

you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive,

This also feels to me like an attempt to reverse phycology the group into not killing you, but I actually agree with this sentence.

Even if we are wrong (although I don't think we are), I think that sets us up to win (referring back to my post 364

[fferyllt]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

[Demainer]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

You literally had me and ivy as the most probable scum team, said you were going to vote for me on that basis, and now I'm not scum with ivy?

And apparently, the probability was "already low-ish"?

Lampshade to the max.