newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

You literally had me and ivy as the most probable scum team, said you were going to vote for me on that basis, and now I'm not scum with ivy?

And apparently, the probability was "already low-ish"?

Lampshade to the max.

I didn't make a post about my thoughts changing because the thought-change was a result of your inaction, which I couldn't predict for sure.

And you're demonstrating that you don't really understand my thought process:

-- Ivy's behavior doesn't make sense as scum because of her day 2 paralysis.
-- If she is scum, the only player I think she makes sense as scum is you and that would involve the Demainer/Ivy team thinking that the N1 kill not being a PR puts them in a bind and they need to distance. And you are the more valuable scum role.
-- You don't make sense as scum with Saudade, based on what I've gleaned of Saudade's scum play.
-- Therefore if you are scum, my best guess is scum with Lukewarm, and a much lower probability of scum with Ivy.

You not voting me lowers your overall likelihood of being scum, and your reason for not voting me -- that Ivy is a stronger scumread -- lowers your probability of being scem with Ivy even more, when there's a viable alternative to either of you being elimed.

[fferyllt]

I still think the Ahri kill makes sense as PR hunting, possibly with some fear of a protect/jk interfering with killing someone more universally townread. As scum I certainly weigh threat-to-my-team with likelihood-of-protection. N1, scum knew more about the game design than town did. They still do, since they know if they are 2 goons or not.

[Demainer]

More lampshading.

I don't take issue with you suddenly thinking I'm not on a scumteam w/ ivy because of my "inaction" or whatever. It's the fact that you emphasized the probability was "

already

low-ish" that is the problem.

[Demainer]

Literally hours ago:

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

[fferyllt]

More lampshading.

I don't take issue with you suddenly thinking I'm not on a scumteam w/ ivy because of my "inaction" or whatever. It's the fact that you emphasized the probability was "

already

low-ish" that is the problem.

I had already expressed that the probability is low-ish to egix, though? I explained the same basis for a you-ivy scum team in one of my posts to him.

From my perspective, the only players in the frame as possible scum are you, Ivy, Luke and Bell.

If you're scum

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense
You-Ivy - lower likelihood. You adamant Ivy vote only makes sense as a distancing thing and not moving to me is on the face of it anti-wincon, although you might feel boxed in by your earlier stances
You - Bell lowest liklihood due to Saudade's positioning wrt to you

[fferyllt]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

Not buying that at all.

You're quite clearly trying to mischaracterize your earlier behavior and posts in the thread.

[Demainer]

This is mostly motte and bailey now, there's no real point of reference and it's just pure revisionism.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

You rely on your own meta to explain why you don't vote, but you can't explain why you're not w/w with ivy?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[fferyllt]

My flip, now or later, will resolve my sincerity. And once that's resolved I expect my final thoughts about your and other players' likelihood of being scum to be taken into account.

Hilariously, the last game I played (which was abandoned, but w/e), a town player was pushing for my elim on day 1 with the intent of following my reads for the rest of the game if flipped town. I was scum, and the trade wasn't acceptable to me. Now I am town and am demanding that my reads get some consideration posthumously. What a difference alignment makes.

[fferyllt]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

You rely on your own meta to explain why you don't vote, but you can't explain why you're not w/w with ivy?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

You want a meta argument for that? The meta argument would be that I don't consider myself a strong enough scum player to bring my whole team to elo unless I'm the weakest player and riding on my team's coattails.

My strongest skill as scum is probably in distancing.

I have a decent scum winrate, but every single game I can think of where I was the strongest scum player, I won in either 4-1 mxlo or 3-1 elo.

[fferyllt]

Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.

I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.

Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.

My role PM says your vote is wrong.

I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.

Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.

My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.

If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!

This is the post to egix that I was referring to regarding that you/ivy are an unlikely team.

In this next post, I expounded on the only way I can see you as scum with Ivy. When I got up this morning, I knew that I was going to have to think about Luke because my middle of the night thoughts on Ivy pushed her back townward. I talked about my Luke thoughts before talking about the you/Ivy possibility. And then I listed them in the opposite order. I can see why you think this post is saying that my first "choice" is you/ivy scum, but I think I made it abundantly clear that I don't want to vote Ivy today. She just feels to me like she's playing alone, so that "choice" isn't my first choice at all.

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

Anyway, other players' posts including yours, since Egix voted me have bumped the order of my individual reads around and that affects who I think can be scum together.

This is where I was at when I made my first post of the day:

Scum (Strong to Weak)
You----Ivy/Luke---Bell

This is where I am at now:

Scum (Strong to Weak)
Luke----Bell/You----Ivy

I have a hard time weighing the Bell/You likelihoods, but I feel like if Luke is scum then one of you is the partner. Your discredits don't exactly endear you to me, but they don't change my read, either. But, your stance outside the discredits, knowing my own alignment suggest you aren't scum with Ivy even more strongly than when I made that comment to Egix yesterday.

Bell is a schrodinger's box. I feel sure I could figure out his alignment with more interaction. Maybe it will happen. :/

Before Ivy's post 464, I wasn't as reluctant to vote her. Now, I'd only vote her to prevent no-elim and I wouldn't be happy about it.

So, my strongest scum team possibilities are {Luke, You}, {Luke, Bell}. If I'm wrong about Saudade's behaviors around scumbuddies, then {Bell, You} is possible, but I feel like that's a lower likelihood. Before Ivy's post 464, I would have put {Ivy, You} as slightly more likely than {Bell, You}. When Luke voted me and you didn't, I feel like that decreased the likelihood of you and Luke being a team. So, my strongest team thought is {Luke, Bell}.

I feel like I'm saying the same thing over and over again with different words. :/

[fferyllt]

fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)

18 hours.

[Lukewarm]

My issue is not that you are suspicious of me (although I don't fully understand your logic to do so) but the fact that you paired me with Demainer.

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense

Using the same logic you used with egix and with Demainer, I know this isn't true because my role pm said otherwise, so you are currently scumreading town.

So either you are scum and making accusations that are not logical because you are trying to manipulate the thread. Or you have some kind of logic that (is wrong) and has not been explained well to the thread.

So if you want me to consider that you might be a mistaken town and not scum, you gotta make your conclusion make some sort of logical sense.

Looking at my iso, starting with post 294 and especially (306 / 325 / 326).

If you think me + Demainer are the most likely pair, why would I have said those things?
Do you think I was bussing him? Why would I need to bus him so early and aggressively?
Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

[Lukewarm]

Just so everyone know where I stand, I actually still think that it is ff and Demainer. At this point I believe they are bussing each other hoping that who ever lives will then not have suspicion on them.

[Ivyeo]

@Mod can we get a Vote Count?

[Ivyeo]

You - Bell lowest liklihood due to Saudade's

positioning wrt

to you

Can you explain what this means? google's given nothing

[Demainer]

I'm starting to reconsider my read on luke. His last few posts do not give me town vibes at all.

I also have second thoughts about the ahri spew.

[Demainer]

But, I don't find ivy/luke a likely pair at all. Feels weird.

[fferyllt]

My issue is not that you are suspicious of me (although I don't fully understand your logic to do so) but the fact that you paired me with Demainer.

You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense

Using the same logic you used with egix and with Demainer, I know this isn't true because my role pm said otherwise, so you are currently scumreading town.

So either you are scum and making accusations that are not logical because you are trying to manipulate the thread. Or you have some kind of logic that (is wrong) and has not been explained well to the thread.

So if you want me to consider that you might be a mistaken town and not scum, you gotta make your conclusion make some sort of logical sense.

Looking at my iso, starting with post 294 and especially (306 / 325 / 326).

If you think me + Demainer are the most likely pair, why would I have said those things?
Do you think I was bussing him? Why would I need to bus him so early and aggressively?
Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

Your 306 was one of the posts I liked as I was catching up. I wasn't scumreading Demainer at that point. I was still in finding townreads mode, so I didn't agree with your reads, but I didn't strongly disagree either when I hit that post.

325 is interesting. Do you really think scum-Demainer would defend his nk choice like that? It would be an odd showing of scum hubris. Does that fit his game persona?

326 - did Demainer respond to this? Looks like Clasko's claim may have made it moot.

Gah. Lemme mull.

If I'm misreading you, then either it's Demainer/Bell or I'm wrong about Ivy.

I don't mind being miselimmed so much given the gamestate, but I want to leave town with a good solve.

[Demainer]

luke has been giving me good vibes in general for most of the game, but the last few posts are weird.

[fferyllt]

You - Bell lowest liklihood due to Saudade's

positioning wrt

to you

Can you explain what this means? google's given nothing

wrt is an abbreviation of "with respect to". What I was saying was that Saudade pushing Demainer doesn't fit Saudade's behaviors around his scumbuddies in his recent scum games I looked at. Scum-Saudade goes after town, especially low hanging fruit town and mostly ignores his scumbuddies unless they initiated interaction with him first.

[fferyllt]

But, I don't find ivy/luke a likely pair at all. Feels weird.

What is weird about them?

[Demainer]

If scum have paired goons, they can easily openwolf at this point. So the question is whether they have a blocker or not.