newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

not sold on this pair as a team, but maybe?

[Egix96]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

one solid town read or even two doesn't take my slot far enough away from the elo cliff to make me feel like I wouldn't be a liability for town going forward. and I'm not coming down to the wire with a bet the farm scum read.

surviving today and another townie being miselimmed would be terrible for town.

I can't completely contain the salt, though!

if you found town me in this mess then good on [

you

.

I can't really say I agree - sometimes you have to make a swing for the fences because it's the only way to win.

[fferyllt]

Oh, I really am scum reading her. The field is incredibly narrow and I think she'd have town binned me by now if she was town. I find her play incredibly postury, her every move spelled out, AtE's that seem designed to shake me etc.. I also think she seems to be vacillating based on whether it looks like I'm scum reading her or not. Also, while I'm aware of the irony of it, replace outs tend to more likely be scum than town.

Please, please, please don't ask me to reference where I drew these conclusions come from, I don't have time for that.
Also I could totally be wrong and this could be one of those ultimate derps I sometimes do. I'm very tempted to try to talk it out and leave her alone, but I realize that's just nepotism and I'm not really interested in a rerun of Cabd calling me scum while I defend without striking back until it's too late.

Part of me wants to take this apart piece by piece and really try to meet minds with you in these last few hours. It would be nice to end the day with a solid read of you. :/

So I'm going to suspend doubt and talk to you like you're town-Bell misreading me.

Your characterization of my play, once again, I can squint and see town you thinking at least some of these things and feel really disappointed that you're not better at reading me than this and I'm not better at reading you than this.

When I find town you in a game it's so solid usually.

You're comparing me here to Cabd in Tenet but I also scumread you quite sincerely in that game for a really long time. Yeah, I was heavily pocketed by him, but he didn't shape that read, he planted the suggestion and then I ran with it.

Pirate Mollie used to scum read my play because, as she described it, instead of playing ball, I would take the ball, and she believed scum do that more than town. She figured out that wasn't an accurate channel of behavior for reading me after a few games, because I do it quite emphatically as town sometimes, intentionally or not. more like usually in back then. my playstyle isn't as aggressive now.

I feel like it's those aspects of my play that you're using to base your read here, at least partially. I perceive myself as wearing my heart on my sleeve and being transparent about how I'm processing the game and how the game is affecting me. When I'm town and under pressure I feel like that transparency is the best response. You perceive that as AtE and manipulation. One one level that means you are picking up and processing what I'm putting into the game, but on another level it means you're misinterpreting WHY I'm putting that stuff into the game in the first place, even though you have seen me do this in other games. Specifically in Illicit and in Tenet when LLD pushed me way off balance.

Emotional content is part of my scum game, too. but there are differences and I'm not going to enumerate them because meta arms races are a thing.

I think that take the ball mindset, which mathblade has in spades as any alignment, is part of why you scumread him in WH13 (and part of why I get so annoyed with him in the games I've played with him). He was extremely frustrated that LLD had total control of the ball and was working around that as hard as he could to manipulate the game in a direction he wanted. he does it as both alignments so I have to figure out the alignment another way.

To the extent I'm trying to control the ball in this game, I'm controlling it toward my elim, but mostly I'm just letting the miselim happen. I can't completely leash my self preservation tendencies, hence the salt, but I don't believe surviving today benefits town. And I am nothing as a mafia player if not a creature in service to wincon.

I am vacillating on your alignment and it comes from waves of doubt that you can actually be misreading me this badly if you're town, which wash against waves of awareness about my own play and against my wanting you to be town and worrying that that want is blinding me. Your concern about "nepotism" is similar. I wouldn't give a player I don't know as well and I don't think should be able to read me as hard a time as I want to give you, but I also worry that I'm setting the bar too low because I do really really want you to be town.

But mostly I want to be right about you and give town a reliable read for tomorrow. And if I can't do that, then I can't. :/

Anyway. The meta river rolls on and both our alignments will become public knowledge and this game will become part of the lenses we view each other through in games and if you're town maybe I won't misjudge this sort of non-mesh in the future.

It's really jarring coming off a game where we actually townblocked, though.

[fferyllt]

I do usually form my reads of you based on how you're reading the game.

Here, I felt like you came to that reads list where you sorted players by effort rather than by your thoughts on their alignment as both premature (your 3rd post and right after you replaced in) and unfinished. You left and didn't come back for over a day, and when you did, you didn't really convert that effort continuum to reads.

Things I think we agree on: Ivy's probably town. And if you're town, then Demainer's probably scum.

Assuming you're town, I'm in your second scum slot so you're not thinking hard about Luke. That's going to change INSTANTLY when you see my flip, and you're going to be stuck between figuring him vs Ivy as second scum.

I really hope PR activity solves that quandary, or the quandary that you are going to present to town tomorrow. If there's no outside data for that solve then things are going to get really messy and I'll be biting my nails in the dead thread.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, if you are town and you successfully got me to reconsider you, then good on you.
But I feel like you're gonna end up being mis yeeted anyway and that I'm powerless to stop it.
The team is probably Demain and... Bell?? I'm not confident enoughhhh

one solid town read or even two doesn't take my slot far enough away from the elo cliff to make me feel like I wouldn't be a liability for town going forward. and I'm not coming down to the wire with a bet the farm scum read.

surviving today and another townie being miselimmed would be terrible for town.

I can't completely contain the salt, though!

if you found town me in this mess then good on [

you

.

I can't really say I agree - sometimes you have to make a swing for the fences because it's the only way to win.

If I felt confident that a not-me elim would be a scum-elim I'd swing with all I've got. If I had more than 48 hours worth of data in the thread to be judged on, I'd also be a lot more feisty about being misread. But, this game was so inactive before I joined there's just not a lot of data, and one of the key slots for me to judge is also a replacement. I thought Bell would be a quick, accurate mutual sort because of a lot of recent history.

I've played with scum-Bell and I feel like his play here is in his town range but his misread of me is really troubling and I'm probably letting that cloud my read too much.

He's never played with scum-me but he's heard about a recent scum game I won. I was successful in that game in bringing a much wider range of emotional reactions to the gamestate than I've ever done before as scum. And I think I was very good at filtering out the scum-oriented emotional reactions and channeling how I'd feel as town instead. And the consequence of that is that players in that game, and probably players like Bell who hear the postgame chatter, are overlooking that the improvement in my scum game there was that I wasn't emotionally flat, but made a better sumulacrum of my town behavior. There were several players in the game who know me well, and it was that emotional range that I think made the difference in a couple of key moments of the game. So now, emotional range is being interpreted as a scum marker rather than a town-marker I've managed at least once to import into my scum game. I've made something that was very AI for me ambiguous. It's an overreaction to assume that rather than ambiguous emotional range is scum-indicative for me now.

[Egix96]

^^ That's cool and all, but it's mostly only tangentially relevant as far as I see.
If you're town, what do you think needs to be done in order to win this game?
Like, if you had to choose two yeets to hit both scum, what would they be, for example?
I know you gave me some advice earlier but it would be nice to have it all in one.

[fferyllt]

demainer and

That's the tough one.

Lukewarm.

[Demainer]

3h left and I'm the consensus elim anyway, so I may as well post legacy reads.

[Demainer]

I may not be here eod, but I'll try.

[fferyllt]

interesting. I expected to see you move your vote.

[Demainer]

Sorry if I'm taking a bit of time to post my reads, irl is totally turned to shit for me rn ngl, so juggling several things at the same time. I am still trying to properly iso.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, this is my final take before we hit the dead line. Egix and Clasko are clear, and I after my most recent read through, I have joined the camp that Ivy is almost certainly town (there is actually one specific post that flipped my opinion, but I think I am going to hold on to that until tomorrow. She is not currently in the hot seat anyways). I am no longer willing to vote against Ivy. A mid elm on them was logically acceptable in an earlier post, when I was not in consideration for being scum, but Clasko and ff (and to a lesser extent, demainer) have all put my name out there.

That means that the 2 scum must be found in Me, fferyllt, demainer, and bell.

The possible pairings are: {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Demainer} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell} {demainer+bell}

I think that a couple of those should be able to be eliminated due to bussing too early day 1/2

{Me+Demainer} {demainer+bell}

Spoiler:

Me+Demainer : posts 325 / 326 / 294

Bell + Demainer : Posts 159 / 160 through 163 / 10 257. Like, if this is a pair Saudede put a lot of work into adding suspicion to Demainer on Day 1, and lead into Day 2 on a vote 293

So now we are down to {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell}

Let's analyze a vote for fferyllt.

If she flips scum, we found a scum.
If she does flip town, the team logically must be me+bell, we found the scum team

So I still think that a vote for ff should be the best choice from anyone's PoV (except ff's lol).

Let's analyze a vote for demainer

If he flips scum, we found scum.
If he does somehow flip town though, he would clear the least number of pairings, leaving me+ff, me+bell, and bell+ff all as possibilities.

From clasko/egix's PoV, there is a possibility that this would leave them with to choose between three players on Day 3 without no mis elim left. From my PoV, this will flip scum, but from clasko/egix, this could be considered a dangerous choice

And if we were to vote Bell

If he flips scum, we found a scum.
If he flips town, that leaves the possibilities as me+fferyllt, demainer+fferyllt, with no mis elims left.

Because Clasko has listed me as one of his suspicions, from my PoV, this is the most likely choice to lead to a town loss

Finally, let's analyze a vote for me

If I flip scum, we found scum.
When I flip town, then the team must logically be ff+[demainer or bell]. We don't have a mis elim left, but I am gonna leave this here to be quoted back afterwards IT IS DEMAINER NOT BELL

I think a mis elim on me is the second safest choice to lead to a town win

From my PoV, the only dangerous choice to end today on is Bell. I think that the safest from all PoVs should be FF. I think that Demainer is a safe vote, because I am sure that he will flip scum, but I would understand Egix or Clasko being wary of this. I think I am an acceptable mis elim.

All that being said, I will not vote for bell, ivy, clasko, or egix.

My preference for the rest of us are as follows ff>demainer>me, and will hammer any one of these wagons at the last minute if needed.

[Lukewarm]

fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)

[fferyllt]

you can't hammer me!

[Lukewarm]

you can't hammer me!

I meant I will stay on your wagon, but am willing to hammer either demainer or myself if needed lol

[fferyllt]

how does my town flip clear demainer?

it better not clear them.

[Lukewarm]

how does my town flip clear demainer?

it better not clear them.

Because I am certain that demainer cannot be paired with me, and I am pretty confident that demainer is not paired with bell.

If you flip town, I think the only logical pair left would be me+bell

[Lukewarm]

I think that a couple of those should be able to be eliminated due to bussing too early day 1/2

{Me+Demainer} {demainer+bell}

Spoiler:

Me+Demainer : posts 325 / 326 / 294

Bell + Demainer : Posts 159 / 160 through 163 / 10 257. Like, if this is a pair Saudede put a lot of work into adding suspicion to Demainer on Day 1, and lead into Day 2 on a vote 293

[Lukewarm]

Well from clasko / egix / ivy's PoV, it should be narrowed down to me+bell

From my PoV, if you flip town my brain will break.

[fferyllt]

Well from clasko / egix / ivy's PoV, it should be narrowed down to me+bell

From my PoV, if you flip town my brain will break.

If you're town your brain is going to break.

I wouldn't remove Demainer from the scumpile with my townflip. Their play has issues.

[fferyllt]

This is hypocritical of the non-voter in the crowd, but Clasko and Demainer need to think hard about their life choices.

And I warn the entire player list that if the deadline is upon us and you've forced me to choose between self-hammering and hammering a scumread I will be extremely put out.

[Demainer]

Egix/Clasko: Confirmed town.
Ivy/ff: Ivy is scum, so I've spent of my time finding the partner. ff makes sense if there's a scumblocker, they have to avoid an elim today or it's def over for them. I can see ff having partner equity with ivy, ff has spent most of the day all over the place and not settling down on anyone in particular, most of it is just performative. This could be villagery behavior, but it could just as likely be scum misdirection. I also don't like the method with which she's going about her reads, it doesn't feel villagery to me at all, too forced.
Ivy/bell: I can see bell here too, but it's mostly just confbias. Same w/ end. But, this has to be the second most likely pair w/ ivy. I don't see much partner equity here, if bell is scum, it's much more likely with either ff or luke.
Ivy/luke: Nah.
Bell/luke: Possible goon pair play, but only because it makes sense in reverse.
Bell/ff: Didn't even think this was worth considering just based on sau/end, but now that both have been replaced, the replacement multi isos are interesting. If ivy flips town, ff is my next sr, I can totally see bell/ff pairing.
ff/luke: A lot of the interaction and accusations made by both of them make sense if this is the scumteam. And this is also one of the reasons why an ivy flip would be very helpful in determining alignments, even if she doesn't flip scum.
In short ivy - ff - luke - bell

Anyway I will be gone now. Please hammer.

I'm staying on ivy till the end, it's one of us tdome time.

[fferyllt]

sigh.

[Lukewarm]

Anyway I will be gone now. Please hammer.

I'm staying on ivy till the end, it's one of us tdome time.

So even though an Ivy wagon will never pass (me, ff, bell, and clasko have all said we do not suspect ivy) you are gonna leave your vote on them ......

[Lukewarm]

That is the opposite of helpful