TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Cephrir]

I'm almost positive the odds are the same haha. I planned on giving Ythan's opinion a lot of weight anyway. Also, if we did clear one or more players as town, why would we bother having a tomorrow?

[Titus]

We can clear two players as town, which improves our odds. I literally just laid it out. It goes from 25% to 33%. If Hopkirk guesses right, our odds go up to 50%. I'd take 50% over 25% any day.

[Hopkirk]

it's never 25%. you're assuming town vote first 100% of the town which is wrong. the odds work out the same and (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... lating_EVs) made by our glorious mod (thanks for all your contributions to the site implosion )explains why a 3p lylo does even out to 1/3 instead of 1/4. if, in practice, scum vote first at an above 1/3 rate then the 3p lylo comes out better than random then results are better for town rather than worse.

i'm fine with going for a full clear on ythan. i'd prefer to do it with me/ceph voting titus on principle, even when i'm pretty sure there's no normal roles that would mean it matters

VOTE: Titus

[Titus]

Yeah, my path is the right one. With both possible scum objecting, it's pretty obvious I am right.

If Cephrir votes me, we confirm Ythan, then Ythan can say who is town.

We can still do the plan even if both scum suspects vote me.

This is a problem for tomorrow though.

[Titus]

Also, I see zero reasons scum vote first here.

[Hopkirk]

Really? You can't see why scum would EVER vote first in a 3p lylo?

Or are you saying 'here' to mean a 4p lylo when I've explicitly said 3p and linked a long explanation on why.

[Titus]

Really? You can't see why scum would EVER vote first in a 3p lylo?

Or are you saying 'here' to mean a 4p lylo when I've explicitly said 3p and linked a long explanation on why.

I mean in this game in 3p lylo, I don't see why scum would vote first given the hesitation. I can't rule it out but unless scum felt confident that town would mishammer. I don't see that happening here with both of you public waffling.

[Cephrir]

Yeah, my path is the right one. With both possible scum objecting, it's pretty obvious I am right.

Or... it's just logically pointless and both of us can see that whether or not we're scum lol.

Fine, since you both insist, VOTE: Titus.

[Ythan]

Sup

[Cephrir]

If ythan picks a townie, he has a 66% chance of being right
then, picking scum from the remaining two is a 50% chance.

if we just pick randomly from among us, it's 33%, but 66% x 50% = 33%

cmon it just intuitively makes no sense that this in any way improves our odds

[Cephrir]

hi ythan

[Cephrir]

i'll give you a few minutes so there's no doubt

[Cephrir]

i promise your hypothetical scum self that none of us are secretly a role that can fuck with you

[Cephrir]

UNVOTE:

i think that should cover it, and if you're slow playing scum that's fine i don't care.

[Cephrir]

i don't know if i ever explicitly claimed but i am VT obviously

[Hopkirk]

UNVOTE: Titus

Really? You can't see why scum would EVER vote first in a 3p lylo?

Or are you saying 'here' to mean a 4p lylo when I've explicitly said 3p and linked a long explanation on why.

I mean in this game in 3p lylo, I don't see why scum would vote first given the hesitation. I can't rule it out but unless scum felt confident that town would mishammer. I don't see that happening here with both of you public waffling.

so you're planning to wait until someone puts a vote down in lylo then locktown them? we both know that's unrealistic. read the article i linked because it explains things as concisely as i can and it's starting to feel like you're ignoring what i'm saying and pretending to be convinced

what 'waffling' are you talking about here?

[Titus]

Not anymore, but yes if one of you voted each other I would have greater weight to that slot being town.

Most everyone has shown hesitation on which of the other remaining two are scum. That's what I mean by waffling. So why would scum make the game a 50/50 and instead wait for town to hopefully make a mistake? That would give them 75% odds of winning as opposed to 50% supposing we don't follow my plan.

Now that we've mentioned it though, it's a bit more wifomy.

[Hopkirk]

that's literally factored into the model. it's wifomy whether or not people mention it

none of this is making me feel better about you because i don't think it's AI

[Titus]

Sorry to whatever model you quoted but appeal to authority is a fallacy.

The "model" makes assumptions that just don't exist with the gamestate the way it is or was.

I am thinking you just need a reason to scumread me here. Disagreeing is one thing but breaking the game in town's favor is a net positive.

I am looking for some type of tiebreaker between the two of you. Right now I am leaning Cephrir's reaction was better but not by much.

We'll see who Ythan wants to confirm as town next or whether he shoots down my plan entirely.

[Cephrir]

[Ythan waiting room]

Would love to hear your thoughts in general, if you're ready.

[Hopkirk]

your math is wrong and the way you're pushing it doesn't make sense as either alignment as i said above. idk why you're pushing it as me and Ceph having bad reactions by saying your math is wrong because if you're town that's still 1 town telling you you're wrong

'you just need a reason to scumread me' is a terrible take here given i've made it clear what my current read is prior to this and i've said this hasn't affected my read outside of it correlating with my current issues with your slot of not doing things that feel meaningful/solvy. imo scum don't intentionally get theory wrong and the way you're presenting it feels at odds with you not doing anything else. like your reads don't seem to have a clear basis here and i'm assuming there's more coming?

it's not an appeal to authority, it's an explanation of how the math/theory works. funnily enough, if we took what you said and assume that believe scum never vote first then it's actually a 50-50 because first vote is from town and it's 50-50 if they put it on scum (and it tends back towards 1/3 based on what extent you think scum actually would vote first. anything below 1/3 = in practice you should vote the person who didn't vote first. that's how equilibrium work, which means you don't actually think that scum wouldn't vote first since otherwise you'd have just be committing to voting whoever didn't vote first which results in a 50-50 for town you as either they voted town!you and lost, or voted scum and you'd hammer it).
in real life it isn't a 75-25 if people are vaguely aware of statistics. and it's not even a valid debate taken outside the 3p context. an alternative/more obvious way to get exactly a 1/3 btw is if you get that by everyone agreeing to vote whoever Ythan says (because a scum-lethal doesn't go through with town!ythan not voting scum in 4p because anything without town!ythan inherently becomes a tie or a town lethal).

'breaking the game in the town's favor' actually annoys me because it feels like you're trolling me here

[Titus]

You keep referring to this narrative that I am doing nothing while ignoring the things I do present and not helping me to resolve the conflicts I am presenting.

Your day 1 was utterly horrible in terms of voting scum. I mentioned this several times and highlight this multiple times where I can't distinguish whether you're the townbeard or scum. You do vote scum some later days, but it is largely not influential until arguably your vote on Bell. I'm struggling to interpret whether or not your conversation with Bell was fake or not. You could enage me there.

I've mentioned MURDERCAT's read on the vote pattern being the opposite to mine. I've mentioned the tonal posts that I feel are AI from Cephrir. You could totally comment and give your opinion on those as well.

I've laid out my reasons and my conflicts, yet you persist in saying I am doing nothing. It doesn't feel like it comes from a place of good faith at all.

I've literally been begging either of you to engage my thoughts on the other to help me and get crickets.

Btw, Cephrir. I told you that I have been in conflict with the flipped scum. You said you would check but I haven't seen your results.

[Hopkirk]

- the voting pattern what is there to comment on? i thought LLD was likely to be bad and voted there. that's basically my d1. that was it as far as i'm aware. i didn't get what you liked about ceph's voting record and didn't realize you were done because it didn't feel like you were done looking through voting records. outside of 6033/6034 which don't really leave anywhere to engage?

- idk why Murdercat thinks what they do and it was a line? if you've actually discussed it with them then detail it more if you want me to weigh in one it?

- i didn't realize 'was scum!hop faking an interaction with Bell' was a question so much as you thinking outloud, because it wasn't a fake interaction so what am i ever going to say in response to that?
- i've looked back and can't see a post you make (only looking for quotes of ceph) where you mention anything about his tone. can you quote these?

[Hopkirk]

what are you begging me to interactive with because if you point out what you've posted you wanted me to interact with then i will, but i don't see it?

[Titus]

i can't wait to lose this game when titus yeets my obvtown ass in elo because bussing isn't possible.

I need to redo my VCA but it's 4 am and I am real behind on mafia. Sleep, work, then catchup.

Posts like these are the ones I am talking about with Cephrir's tone.