newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[fferyllt]

The only person I'm annoyed at for misreading me is Bell. The rest of you have no idea how idiosyncratic my play is/can be.

[fferyllt]

In a new player, I kinda see turning that off as scum-indicative.

I thought it was just the norm.

It betrays a paranoid mindset, I think. Which isn't limited to scum, but newbish scum kinda have more reason to feel hunted, and experienced scum have probably encountered profile watchers.

[fferyllt]

the lack of twilight chat is killing me.

[Egix96]

the lack of twilight chat is killing me.

Ikr. I just wanna know what Demain was already...

[fferyllt]

same. I want to know if my day 3 is going to be hell on wheels, or just hell.

[Lukewarm]

the lack of twilight chat is killing me.

Ikr. I just wanna know what Demain was already...

I keep checking back hoping the flip has been posted so I can know If I should feel vindicated for my early read on demainer or have my whole out look for this game destroyed, and have to start my whole thought process over again from scratch.

The suspense!

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

d2 final vote count

Demainer (4):

Ivyeo, Egix96, Clasko, Lukewarm

fferyllt (1):

Bell

Ivyeo (1):

Demainer

not voting (1):

fferyllt

with 7 alive, it took 4 to eliminate a player.

[schadd_]

Demainer has been eliminated. they were a

vanilla townie!

night 2 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-04-19 12:15:00). if you have a night action, private message it to me or post it in a PT when applicable

[schadd_]

fixed an error in the vote count that got sent out

[schadd_]

Clasko has been killed in the night! he was a

town cop!

[schadd_]

Day 3 Starts!

Spoiler:

vote count 3.0

not voting (5):

Lukewarm, fferyllt, Ivyeo, Bell, Egix96

with 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate a player. day 3 starts now and ends april 26th at 16:30 central US time; in (expired on 2021-04-26 16:30:00)

mod notes

• thread unlocked

[/area]

[Lukewarm]

Well, that was unexpected...

We have entered into the nightmare scenario I described

Let's analyze a vote for demainer

If he flips scum, we found scum.
If he does somehow flip town though, he would clear the least number of pairings, leaving me+ff, me+bell, and bell+ff all as possibilities.

From clasko/egix's PoV, there is a possibility that this would leave them with to choose between three players on Day 3 without no mis elim left. From my PoV, this will flip scum, but from clasko/egix, this could be considered a dangerous choice

From my PoV it now must be bell+ff.

But at this point, I think the whole game hinges on Egix's vote today (no pressure)

[fferyllt]

We are at 3-2 ELO. I think everyone still in the game knows what that means, but just in case: If one town player puts down a vote on another town player, then the 2 scum players can win the game by also voting that town player.

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

[Lukewarm]

I half expected Ivy to be the night kill today.

I had the feeling that they would Roleblock Clasko, and kill Ivy (because everyone had her on her clear list) and Clasko was a bit suspicious of me through out Day 2, so he seemed like a decent choice to keep a live in hopes to get a town vote onto me.

[fferyllt]

I half expected Ivy to be the night kill today.

I had the feeling that they would Roleblock Clasko, and kill Ivy (because everyone had her on her clear list) and Clasko was a bit suspicious of me through out Day 2, so he seemed like a decent choice to keep a live in hopes to get a town vote onto me.

I expected it to be either Ivy or Clasko.

[fferyllt]

I believe the scumteam is Bell/Lukewarm

This post is mostly about Bell. It's long and I'm not really sure how coherent it is, but I did my insomnia-fueled best yesterday.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low. The anti-team feels I have about Lukewarm/Ivy aren't as strong, but my feelings about Ivy's play are that she just doesn't feel like someone who has a partner. She's been under suspicion by one player or another for a lot of the game and she just feels like she's facing that alone and somewhat bewildered. And that bewilderment has generated townreads of various strengths.

Bell/Saudade Case

- Saudade's scum-partner behaviors have been predictive for finding not-partners: Whemestar, Demainer, and I'm going to continue to put a whole lot of stock in the idea that it also predicts that Ivy is not a partner. He doesn't go after his partners.

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.


Saudade/Lukewarm interactions.

157 is a bit of a wtf because just 1 page earlier he said "wtf u strong townreading someone on page 4 for"

162 look at all the known town in that post. Ordinarily I'd look at that and wonder which one of the 4 is scum, but given his tendency to mostly (but not completely) ignore scum partners, this doesn't raise an Ivy flag at all.

163 is the kind of mention I expect with most scum, though Saudade tends to minimize it from what I've seen.

Saudade also looks like a really good candidate for night killing Ahri.

I won't cite them all, but it's clear from his posts to her that he is familiar with her outside this game. He's a veteran of Epic Mafia. I'm not 100% certain that Ahri is (Maybe I'll look at her previous games and see if she mentions EM), but her playstyle certainly fits that mold. He may have been concerned that if Ahri got more engaged on day 2 (or if he thought she was a PR who was keeping a low profile on day 1), she'd figure out he's scum. Maybe that wasn't as much of a low-info kill as Demainer thought!

Moving on to Bell.

I like Bell as a person and as a player, and for that reason (along with my own very regrettable fatalism) I kept cutting him slack during my short sojourn in Day 2. PARTICULARLY in terms of his participation level because of his new job/newness at the job. Even without the level of involvement that I usually expect from town-Bell, there are other things that are missing in his play here. The things that I associate with town-Bell are

WIM (want it more) - he self-characterizes his town game this way. He has a drive to win as town that he lacks as scum and it shows in his curiosity, his digging, and his skepticism. Getting a townread from town-Bell isn't easy. Even though the percentage of scum in most games is going to be low, he may not townread even 50% of the players, and he may only have 2-3 strong townreads in a game with 14-20 players.

His scum game by comparison is lower-energy and kinda OMGUSY, though he also OMGUSes about suspicion as town, especially from someone he's not townreading.

When I voted him on Day 2, his next post was to vote me. It clanged, but not as hard as it probably should have because of his tendency to bite back as town, too.

The game I played with scum-Bell last year is here: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=84560. If you look at his iso, the content/non-content ratio is kinda heavy on the non-content. I have to say, this game is an improvement in the content area. In the Tenet game, I said that I thought he was due for a break-out scum game and I think this game may be it, though the circumstance: replace-in, only one player (who happened to want to die on day 2) who knows his play all that well. Even with the POE yesterday putting him in the frame, I was making excuses for him mentally, and really went out of my way to see the potential for him to be town, despite his extremely harsh approach to me. (from my perspective, having a great fondness for <adorable Bell is town Bell>)

I'm trying to think how to put this. Compared to the town-bell I know, who is quixotic and says things in a sort of backwards way sometimes to how I think about stuff, who's paranoid, who can get stuck in tunnels, and who tries really hard to town it up immediately so that he gets read as town and doesn't have to fight people about his alignment, this is different. It's pushier, but at the same time it's not as deep. And his focus has mostly been on me -- not to sort me -- to push me.

I feel kinda stupid for giving him so much slack. I did the same thing in the smokefilled antechanber game I linked, to the point where I was actively trying to prevent his elim until I felt like I had a better handle on his play because I thought real life was interfering with his time and his focus.

He hasn't jumped on stuff I've said and questioned me about it. He's mostly just characterized posts I made as scummy. Like saying that my first post was trying to manipulate egix.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

I'll probably have a lot more to say about Bell as this day gets going, but this is a fairly decent explanation of why I'm scumreading him and won't be changing my mind barring something earthshattering on the PR front.

Here are a couple of Bell-town games for comparison purposes if you're interested and/or motivated enough to skim them. They are also me-town games.

FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt Large Theme Game.

This was an anonymous game where every player was assigned a new account by the game mod. If you accidentally posted from your main account you were forced replaced. Fortunately that only happened to a couple players. Bell and I were both town.

Bell was Servant Avenger and I was Servant Alter Ego. This was my first game back on site after at ~2 year hiatus. It took a bit to settle in after being away, and I was also being careful not to post stuff that was recognizably me from two years ago. The game mod (and the game theme) pulled several players out of retirement, which was a lot of fun! I wound up townreading Bell/Avenger. He always maintained some suspicion of me. In this game you can see that in a 14 player game where it was known that there were 4 mafia players, he maintained suspicion of 6 (sometimes more?) throughout his time in the game. And you can see how he questioned me and scumhunted for evidence of lies or subterfuge rather than simply declaring the evidence was there without really engaging.

Bell's ISO: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12090080

My ISO https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12089984

Mini 2167: Illicit Substances Mafia

In this game, Bell and I were both town. I was playing in the hydra

morph the cat

(two players sharing a user account and both posting using it. We didn't sign our posts so it may be difficult to figure out which posts were mine. When I felt like it was important to know that I was making a post, I usually made it obvious by speaking about my partner ("Cabd", "neuter-half", usually). This game is a great example of how Bell has a really strong focus toward winning the game as town. He refers to it as "WIM" meaning want it more. We townread each other for most of the game. Another player, zMuffinman, came up with an autowin strategy for the game on Day 4. I was skeptical and reluctant to go along with the strategy, since it meant elimming some town reads (and my hydra) along the way. I was salty and paranoid that the assumptions of the autowin strategy might be wrong, but I trusted the plan and didn't fight the elim when it was my turn, the day before we thought it would be ELO (Miselim and Lose) with 2 town and 1 scum remaining.

If you're interested, you can read how I tend to behave in a situation where I, however reluctantly, believe town's chances of winning are better if I am elimmed.

But, more importantly, focus on how town-Bell scumhunts and how he treats fellow-players whose scum game he respects, and compare that to how he treated me on Day 2 here.

If you want to see my recent scum games, I'm happy to share them. let me know and I'll link them. But, Bell and Luke need to do their own legwork to scumcase me. I'll sit back and shoot down the stuff that is wrong or misleading, and there will be no questions in my mind today about whether town-Bell would actually believe the kinds of stuff he wrote about me on Day 2.

In another game where Bell and I were both town, I initially townread him, then scumread him and then eventually with a lot of difficulty came back to a townread. He mentioned that game in a post yesterday, comparing my play here to Cabd's scum play of going after Bell and trying to get him elimmed in that game. And I mentioned that I also scumread Bell in that game for a (long) while. I made a post in that game:

Subject: revO emaG - TENET

I feel like Bell's due for a quantum jump. He's diligent and he has to be getting tired of getting rolled over as scum.

notsci's game has matured, but he's also shown tendencies to fall back into old habits.

It's the self-righteous anger (and paranoia!) that are striking me as town.

yeah, yeah, I know.

Deacon Blues is my hydra with another player, borkjerfkin.

This game we're playing doesn't look like as huge a jump as I've been fearing Bell's going to eventually make, but while I see some of his scum-markers here, I also see improvement from the Smokefilled game where he was scum. I'm really curious to see if he's able to keep it up today. It won't work on me. Demainer's flip and Ivy's steady candle of townieness mean there's no real chance that he's town here.

Next wall will be about Lukewarm.

[Lukewarm]

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

I know waiting for Egix to decide where to place the town vote is the

right

play to make, but I really want to just vote out right off the bat. That would force Egix to choose between you and me. The game would not end immediately, so the only explanation would be that either you are scum (and my vote is right) or I am scum (and the scum team needs one more vote on you before they can win.)

As is, I feel quite powerless, and like I just have to wait for Egix. But if I did that, I could take this game into my own hands. Go out on my own terms lol

Slight topic change though, I am looking for ward to seeing how you play turn this all around. I am very impressed with how you have played this game. Taking over a scum slot that confirmed town had already locked in as scum, and somehow managing to keep town from voting you. Very, very impressive.

[fferyllt]

Lukewarm

After the pit of my stomach turned to ice when I saw demainer's flip. I went for a bike ride and just thought about the game without being able to look at it. Demainer's flip made me feel very sure of the scum team: Bell/Luke. I thought about how I'd had a sense that Luke's play was just too...clean. Every stance shift was well paced, well thought out, and well-expressed. But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

Here's the progression:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Okay, I read the thread back from the beginning, and here are my reads for everyone in the game, in order from most maf lean to most town lean. I was honestly really back and forth on which to place at the top between these two, so I will say they are tied at the top.

Scum leans:
Clasko / Demainer

Neutral reads, could go either way:
Ivyeo
Saudade

Town lean:
Endlessdark

Strong town lean:
Egix96

Me (obviously lol)

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

Which post was the "slip"? I thought I would notice it when I finished re-reading, but I didn't.

He was probably referencing 86 where Clasko town read both wheme and demainer, something that I pointed out did not make sense to me (he has later tried to clear this up). During Day 1, it seemed like Clasko was using faulty logic to clear both Wheme and Demainer, which in turn made me suspicious that he was covering for his partner. From my pov, it can still be that Clasko was trying to cover for Demainer.

But from Demainer's point of view he would have no reason to be suspicious of Clasko for clearing both of them, because he would now know that both were clear after Wheme flipped town.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

Luke

- I'm getting very bad vibes from this man. I don't see someone who is weighing all of the options of who Mafia is at all, and is instead just going all-out on Demainer. Admittedly he has reason to, some of which I agree with and some I do not, and whilst I liked the fact he made a read list, this was counter-balanced by not giving reasonings for any of the placements, outside of the top two, which he has explained elsewhere. His gameplay is good (driving forward, reviving a sluggish game), but I'm going to err on the side of him being a good mafia player who happened to roll Mafia here:

VOTE: Lukewarm

I would not say that I have been tunneling on Demainer, at least not until recently lol. Day 1, I was juggling a lot of suspicions. But since Day2 has started, the conversation has been largely dead and I have read, and re-read, and re-read the Day 1 chat. And he is my strongest read by far, with multiple posts that felt anti-town. I'd even like to point you to my statement here:

So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point]

The chat was dead, and I had read all of the messages many times over, and I felt like there was nothing else for me to gain from re-reading anymore. So it was gonna take some new info for me to do anything else lol.

But luckily, we just got some new info to work with!

I am a Town Cop - I investigated Egix96 last night, and he is confirmed Town. Dunno if this is the correct play, but here we are.
Two possible Mafia in these five, provided I don't get CC'd:

This changes everything on how I would approach the game moving forward!

So the first thing we need to do is see if anyone is gonna counter claim. And remember, there is a limited combination of abilities in this set up. The only way Clasko can be a cop is if we are in a Cop+Doctor or a Solo Cop set up.

So if you have any power other then Doctor (Cop, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Friendly Neighbor, or a Mason) then you can counter claim against him. If you are a Doctor, please do not reveal yourself.

The "lol's" and exlamation marks feel kinda overdone? I dunno I'm not sure I'm reading the emotion right. But it feels like his applecart got overset and he's trying to look excited and helpful.

And the second place where I felt like he was reacting to something unexpected was when I put him out there as a scumread.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

VOTE: fferyllt

They have posted so much information/analysis, and then their final conclusion was

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Which I honestly cannot understand how a town could come to either one of those final conclusions. Either way, you have to assume that one of the scum players came into day 2 ready to bus their partner for no reason. Either Demainer bussing Ivy or me bussing Demainer. Your final pairs make 0 sense to me as town, so I am therefore left to assume that you are scum who was put into a hard position (you replaced into a slot that was already under fire from a confirmed town).

you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive,

This also feels to me like an attempt to reverse phycology the group into not killing you, but I actually agree with this sentence.

Even if we are wrong (although I don't think we are), I think that sets us up to win (referring back to my post 364

What jumps out here is that Luke isn't arguing that he isn't scum. He's arguing that he can't be scum with Demainer. And lo and behold...

he's not scum with Demainer

.

This was pointed out to me as one of my scum markers a few years ago. I prefer not to lie, so I phrase arguments and cases and counterarguments as scum so I minimize false statements. And I think that's what Luke is doing here. He attacks me on the wrong part -- that he could be scum with Demainer, not the part that I kept reiterating over and over -- that the carefulness of his stance building results in a body work that looks a little too clean to be for real. There are no quick turnarounds except when forced by a sudden shift in the gamestate.

Moving along.

first off, I don't feel like my posts that morning were all that analytical. I was majorly sleep deprived, was trying to regurgitate the thought trains that just wouldn't stop and kept me awake the night after I replaced in. and I felt like I was having a hard time getting my thoughts across because Demainer didn't seem to get what I was trying to say at all.

Stuff I didn't like: calling my fatalism reverse psychology. I'm torn between being pissed off that you guys didn't vote me out yesterday and thinking that maybe I"ll be able to do a better job today at casing and hopefully convincing the rest of town that the scum team is Bell and Luke than Demainer would have been able to do. No offense at all intended to Demainer. This is a really, really tough situation for town and although I intend to leave no stone unturned, the realist in me thinks the effort is going to be all for naught. But damned if I'm going to just roll over and let scum-Bell win this without a fight.

Anyway, that was about as far from reverse psychology as I'm capable of. I was hoping not to have to self-vote at the last minute to even get an elim across the line.

The comment about being in a slot under fire from confirmed town is part of why I decided to just do what I could on Day 2 and eat the elim if that's how it turned out. As the hours ticked down, egix's read actually softened, but scum came out in force, though fortunately(?) not both in the game thread during the last few hours of the day.

The Demainer miselim happened with one scum vote and 3 town IMO.

Anyway, Luke's arguments starting here and going through the rest of his later posts to/about me really stood out while I was biking. He hadn't argued that my scumread was wrong.

He argued that I was wrong that he's scum with Demainer. And lo and behold, he is not. My initial case was wrong.

But, my reasons for scumreading him were this:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.

Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.

My insomnia brain worked overtime last night, so I don't feel like I have much more to say about what's transpired in the game. I did some thread data checks to see if I could poke holes in my theories this morning, but that's basically done. Although my reads could change based on what hits the thread going forward, don't feel like you have to wait on more catch up from me at this point.

Egix, in terms of your deep wolf scruples, if you want to see where my theory thoughts come from, you can read my wiki Terms of Art regarding trajectory analysis. It's kind of a corollary of the last paragraph of that section. Lukewarm's play borders on that. And like I said, I probably wouldn't go there if I felt there were good candidates for Ivy partners. Demainer's the only possible candidate to me, and that's not a slam-dunk.

I feel like the gamestate leads to my slot as the likeliest candidate for an Ivy partner, but my role PM says nope. If Ivy's flipped and is town, I don't think that clears me to the extent that my flip could clear Ivy, and that's the source of some extremely unwelcome fatalism on my part. If Ivy is town and she's flipped today, I feel like I'm still a strong miselim candidate for tomorrow at elo.

On the other hand, if I'm flipped then my reads become confirmed town reads and I hope that town players would give them some serious weight on day 3.

Egix unvoting me (at least for now) changes the calculus somewhat, but I'm not convinced it's a good thing^tm for town if I'm alive on day 3.

fatalism is a terrible drug, kids. don't do it.

In other words, I wasn't considering Lukewarm's interactions with Demainer at all. He was in the frame because no reasons for scumreading Ivy really hold water for me.

My mistake was in all the slack I gave Bell for misreading me when he's an MS player who has very little excuse for getting the read wrong.

And yet he kept hammering that point that I had to be scum for positing a Luke/Demainer scumteam.

I eventually posted this:


Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.

@fferyllt You say this, but you still are ignoring the question I have asked you about how you came to your conclusion. In your mind, how does it make sense for me and demainer to be scum, AND for me to have made post 325 + 326 in the game state that they were made. What is the thought process that you have used to allow those two things to co-exist in your read?

It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.

@everyone I was actually thinking about this, why would fferyllt (as scum) make the pair Me+Demainer?. If I am right, and the team is ff + Demainer, and they were trying to come up with a plan of who to push while bussing demainer, then their options were : [Demainer+Ivy] [Demainer+Bell] [Demainer + me]

Who every is place into the mafia accusation would come across as town once ff flipped scum. I have been widely town read by nearly every player (except Clasko for some reason), but Ivy and Bell have both been discussed as possible scum. So ff could have chosen me so that both Bell and Ivy would be under suspicion moving into Day 3.

Honestly fferyllt, you seem like a good/experienced player. So I analyzed how your play could help lead to a town win (and could not find it) then analyzed how your play could lead to a scum win, and this is the scenario I found:

Spoiler:

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Me + Demainer, leaving Bell and Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out one of them / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

We vote out the other

Mafia Win

Compared to if you, as scum made the bussing paid Demainer + Bell

Day 2:

2

v

5

You flip scum today, which appears to clear Bell + Demainer, leaving Ivy under suspicion / Night kill
Day 3:

1

v

4

We vote out Ivy / Night kill
Day 4:

1

v

2

Who ever is left out of Clasko/Egix/Me have to reexamine Bell and Demainer

50/50 Town/Mafia win

So if you are scum paired with demainer, accusing Me+Demainer has a logical reason behind it.

Lukewarm, I didn't think so much about who you've pushed as I did about how you went about it, which is pretty much flawlessly measured and commensurate, just as you're pushing me here. And that measured style matches some patterns I've seen in really, really good scum players. And to be fair, they're measured when they're town, too.

Anyway, I'm ending the day thinking there are better ways to spend a night than sleeplessly turning over a game, and doubting my reads.

Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.

And reiterated:

Subject: newbie 2060: creatures, night 2

And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.

If you really are town, why are you avoiding answering my questions when I have been asked you to explain your read?

If I were scum with demainer, why would I have made posts 325 and 326 in the game state that those posts were made? If you cannot explain it, doesn't that break the me+demainer pair? You keep saying that you are going to flip town, and then we should look at your reads. If that is what is going to happen, shouldn't you work through the apparent contradiction here?


Of course me asking you this this many times will mean nothing when you flip scum

I've told you that those posts had nothing to do with the pattern that flashed regarding your game presence as a whole.

Or I've tried to tell you. I didn't take those posts into account. Looking at them they make me question the whole pattern, and some of them are precisely why my initial read of you was town.

Without the twin pillars of Egix and Clasko town along with a sense that Ivy is alone and kinda lost in the game, I doubt I would have considered the possibility of you scum. There's still the possibility of Saudade/You being partners but I feel too exhausted to get my head around how that would work right now.

I can't hold onto a Demeaner/you team in the face of the posts. I hope the whole pattern i thing is a false positive and I don't want to be around dealing with paranoia flashes about you later in the game.

Anyway, sort of like arguing with Demainer yesterday, I feel like the argument just goes around in circles. There were probably some late night brain glitches involved in deciding demainer made sense as scum at all. I kinda wonder how I would have processed the game from the start and in the moment. Tempo is so critical in a game, and this game's tempo went from glacial to wildfire after I joined, partly due to my presence and posting.

That explosion of posts another townmarker of my play, though it's weaker. I can hyperpost as scum to keep pace with a fast moving game but there's much less content in my posts as scum. Thinking and rethinking what I'm going to post tends to steam out anything I notice as potentially incriminating or not furthering my scum agenda.

[fferyllt]

If you are town, please hold off voting until everyone you think is town feels ready to end the day.

I've got some posts I worked on during the night phase incoming...

I know waiting for Egix to decide where to place the town vote is the

right

play to make, but I really want to just vote out right off the bat. That would force Egix to choose between you and me. The game would not end immediately, so the only explanation would be that either you are scum (and my vote is right) or I am scum (and the scum team needs one more vote on you before they can win.)

As is, I feel quite powerless, and like I just have to wait for Egix. But if I did that, I could take this game into my own hands. Go out on my own terms lol

Slight topic change though, I am looking for ward to seeing how you play turn this all around. I am very impressed with how you have played this game. Taking over a scum slot that confirmed town had already locked in as scum, and somehow managing to keep town from voting you. Very, very impressive.

Since I think you're scum, I have minimal objections to your voting me! However if you ARE town and I'm wrong about Ivy, then I hope you'll take my suggestion at least until everyone has a chance to post.

[fferyllt]

I want to vote Bell today. It's because Bell is by far my strongest scum read and the most easy to explain.

[Lukewarm]

You really wrote a book during the night. This will take some time to parse / respond to

[fferyllt]

@Mod I'll be at least semi V/LA 4/19-4/21-ish.

I'm getting the second Moderna jab tomorrow and depending on how much of a reaction I have I could be out of it for a couple days. I expect to be able to keep up with the game during that time, but just in case, I'll make it a V/LA.

[fferyllt]

You really wrote a book during the night. This will take some time to parse / respond to

Not my best work, at least in literary terms.

[Lukewarm]

I want to vote Bell today. It's because Bell is by far my strongest scum read and the most easy to explain.

I would not be completely against that. From my PoV, that will land a scum kill (

unless Ivy is actually a god scum player who managed to get every single player to town read her, and deserves to win

)

[fferyllt]

yeah, that's my nightmare but I just...don't think so.