newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[Lukewarm]

Something that I noticed in my first read through (and I do plan on posting more responses to your posts, this is just something that jumped out at me). These posts feel like they are written with the goal of swaying specifically Egix, but not Clasko.

The first post, about Saudede, seems partly tailored towards swaying Egix specifically.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

Like this whole section felt like "Egix, remember that other game we played in together, look how different I am in this game"

But then, neither post has seem to try and appeal to Clasko in the same way. Hell, Clasko's name does not appear a single time in Post 665, and the two times it is in post 667 are this:

But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim

Where Clasko is being used only as a framing point, not like he is being addressed. I mean Clasko had me listed as suspicious for most of day 2 (until he eventually changed his vote to fferyllt), but she does not even point that out or agree with his points.

If she thought there was a chance that she would need to sway Clasko today, I feel like she would have done something of the sort in her post.

[Lukewarm]

It also stood out to me that she felt the need to make a point to state that her+bell could not be a team, but not that she needed to defend against the accusation that her and I are a team.

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.

Almost like she subconciously felt the need to defend against that, because she knew that one was true.

And its not like she should have expected a her+bell accusation but not a her+me accusation. I mean I came in expecting:

I accusse Bell+ff
ff accuses me + bell
Bell accuses me + ff

[Lukewarm]

I think Bell/my interactions should be obviously anti-partner regardless of how anyone reads me, but there is also some anti-partner interactions from Saudade toward Endless that I'll call out:

130 Saudade "uuuuhs" a post from Endless that interprets Ivy's early play as inexperienced town. Saudade was voting Ivy at that point.

131 he "good vote"'s Whemestar's Endless vote.

I would also like to say that I do not see any of Saudade + endlessdark's interactions being anti-partner at all.If anything, looking at a shared iso between the two it seems like they were trying to keep their distance from one another.

Saudade never voted or endlessdark, or said that anything he did was suspicion. He actually compained that endlessdark was getting an early wagon formed on him. The only time Saudade gave a read on Endless dark was to say he had no read on him post 162. [I actually read post 131 as sarcastic given his immediate turn around in post 132, and then later stating he had no read on endless in post 162].

Endless also never voted against Saudade, nor said anthing he had said was suspicious.

Looking at their iso, it looks to me like their only interaction was to debade Ivy's alignment. It feels more like they are staying a bit distant from one another, so I am not sure how you gleamed that they had "anti-partner interactions"

Spoiler:

Thier voting patterns were:

• Saudade votes Wheme
  Endless votes Ahri
  Saudade votes Ivy
  Saudade votes Demainer
  Endless votes Wheme
  Saudade votes Ahri
  Saudade votes Demainer

They collectively voted for only players who have already flipped town (plus one vote for Ivy)

[fferyllt]

Something that I noticed in my first read through (and I do plan on posting more responses to your posts, this is just something that jumped out at me). These posts feel like they are written with the goal of swaying specifically Egix, but not Clasko.

The first post, about Saudede, seems partly tailored towards swaying Egix specifically.

This is going to be a small side trip. The reason I made that post to egix, pushing back at his scumread of my slot and challenging him to actually read my play, was because egix is the only player here besides Bell who has played with me, and in that Newbie game I replaced into his scum-partner's slot. The difference in my approach here vs there is almost night and day and I thought egix would be able to see it if he reevaluated my slot. It was a very different gamestate in that game, too, but if anything my entry point into that game was much weaker. A strong, loud player had been calling my slot scum since the start of day 2 and didn't let up in the slightest when I replaced in.

egix should remember that in that newbie game, I really didn't want to state reads, and basically just proclaimed a few players town and refused to say which of the remainder I thought were scum. I "efforted" some replace-in catchup posts and "efforted" some meta towncases (they actually involved a lot of effort -- mostly to carefully pick and choose what to highlight and what to gloss over

And I actively saved the player who was pushing me the hardest from miselim who was pushing me the hardest. He had a semi-guilty jailkeeper result on my slot (which DAYUM I wish I'd realized), though. he would have outed his night action if he'd been around when the miselim happened which would have been disastrous, too. My slot basically wasn't salvagable, though I tried and I did my best to help set egix up for the late game win. I don't think he really needed my help, though!

Anyway, egix was my partner, and he was one of the players I did a full meta dive on and he knows that I'm fairly methodical as scum. I was anything but methodical here on day 2.

Writing this, I'm not even sure egix is still townreading me, and if he's not, or if he's dead, then this game is probably a scum win anyway but I WILL go down fighting.

Like this whole section felt like "Egix, remember that other game we played in together, look how different I am in this game"

But then, neither post has seem to try and appeal to Clasko in the same way. Hell, Clasko's name does not appear a single time in Post 665, and the two times it is in post 667 are this:

But there were two places where something unexpected happened. First, one of his top scum reads, choice for a push on day 2, Clasko outed as Cop with an innocent result.

And then here's his reaction to Clasko's scumread and claim

Where Clasko is being used only as a framing point, not like he is being addressed. I mean Clasko had me listed as suspicious for most of day 2 (until he eventually changed his vote to fferyllt), but she does not even point that out or agree with his points.

If she thought there was a chance that she would need to sway Clasko today, I feel like she would have done something of the sort in her post.

Clasko has no history of playing with me. Neither do you. And neither does Ivy. So, the kinds of post that I wanted to make to/about Egix aren't even a consideration with you three.

Unless!

you and Ivy and Egix if he thinks our one-game history isn't enough (in most cases, it wouldn't be, but because his experience is with replace-in scum-me, it just happens to be pretty helpful) want to read some of my earlier games from this year. My playstyle has changed a little since my first few years at MS, but players who knew me then have pretty much been able to read now-me as well (or poorly) as they read past-me. I linked several of them in my Bell-wall, and those games happen to be useful as meta on both Bell and me.

I found that my first real from-the-start scum game against town players who have been playing with me since 2013 isn't that different from my best scumgames in 2013-2015. I've improved a few things, but the best aspects of my scum game from back then are still fairly present. All said, I'm still a mediocre scum player, and mediocre is often good enough if I bring "want it more" to the table as scum. Which is hard! I strongly prefer being town!

Here's the link to that scum game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85085 and here's my iso: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12363814

If Clasko were alive today, that would tell me something about the row/column we're in that I couldn't really speculate on during the night and just left it out of my post about you. If he were alive right now, he would still be town IMO. There was basically no branch here that led to scum-Clasko.

My read of you is weaker than my read of Bell. IF I'm wrong some stuff re Ivy's posting, then I can see your play as town. Right now I see it as extremely good scum play that I wouldn't be suspecting at all in a game that hadn't had 2 confirmed town on Day 2. Which is kinda scary!

This whole game is scary, though.

My WIM is to a large extent driven by not wanting to lose to scum-Bell. :/

[Lukewarm]

What jumps out here is that Luke isn't arguing that he isn't scum. He's arguing that he can't be scum with Demainer. And lo and behold...he's not scum with Demainer.

This was pointed out to me as one of my scum markers a few years ago. I prefer not to lie, so I phrase arguments and cases and counterarguments as scum so I minimize false statements. And I think that's what Luke is doing here. He attacks me on the wrong part -- that he could be scum with Demainer, not the part that I kept reiterating over and over -- that the carefulness of his stance building results in a body work that looks a little too clean to be for real. There are no quick turnarounds except when forced by a sudden shift in the gamestate.

To be honest with you, I was more surprised that I was being paired with Demainer then I was that I was being scum read. I knew there was a good chance that you were scum, and would need to put suspicion on other people, so I was not surprised when that happened. The thing that surprised me was being pair with Demainer.

And to be frank with you, I have no idea how to respond to the accusation that my posts "look too clean to be real." That is the opposite of having something to base your scum read on, which left me with no way (or at least no way that I can think of) to discuss your read. I mean the only argument that I could possibly make is that I am a generally analytical/logical based person in real life, but you would just have to take my word for it, so it seemed futile to address.

So instead I focused on your claim that it was me+demainer. At that point in time, I was pretty sure you were being voted out, I mean I had voted for you, and Egix had said you must be scum (he had not walked that back yet I don't think). So, I was approaching it with the mind set, either:
"she flips scum, and her reads don't matter as much" or
"she flips town, and her dying words were going to be 'its luke+demainer'"

So I was hedeging my bets, trying to get you to rethink your read of me + demainer, so that on your off chance that you were town, then you could leave us with a more helpful read. But then you kept dodging the question, and even went so far as to say

I can't hold onto a Demeaner/you team in the face of the posts

without giving any new reads. That cemented it for me, that you were scum, and once you flipped scum, the fact that you were scum reading me+demainer would not matter so much.

[Lukewarm]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

fferyllt, I think you and I might have put up enough for everyone else to read once they get back in lol

So I am gonna step away for a bit, and check back in after (hopefully) everyone else has gotten a chance to weight in.

[fferyllt]

Then you didn't understand my 568. :/

I was saying that in the face of those posts you pointed me at, there was very low likelihood that you were scum with Demeanor, and that also, with Demeanor's alignment still an unknown, it lowered your scum probability, too.

I realize that my reasons for scumreading you are kinda unfair. I would have taken your play more at face value, while still thinking that a logical player is logical as any alignment.

I've been burned by logical scum players often enough that the thought is always in the background, especially when I don't actually know anything about their townplay.

My reads didn't change. What happened was that the probabilities shuffled: Demainer/Bell team went up some. Demainer/You team went down some. And Ivy kinda stayed the same, since I didn't see a whole lot of evidence of her being scum with you or Bell to begin with.

[Lukewarm]

Quick side note before I disappear: I have no interest in sitting down and reading other player's back logs of games. I much prefer to focus on the game that I am currently playing. If anyone else finds anything interesting, feel free to share, but that is just not my cup of tea.

[fferyllt]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

If we vote Bell today I think that's the best chance we have of there being a day 4. He's my strongest scumread. Voting you or ivy increases the chances that scum win today. Voting me assures that scum win today. but that's knowledge that other town don't have and all I can do is play my town-heart out here and hope that other town players recognize that.

If you're town, then buck up and do the same - plan on surviving today so there's a day 4 that town has a chance of winning.

[fferyllt]

@Luke,

basically, with the data on the table right now, the only way I'd willingly vote you today is if we were tied at E-2. And I'd be worried as hell that it could lose the game just as surely as my elim will.

Another game day of data will help town on day 4, too. If we can get there.

[fferyllt]

I would have taken your play more at face value, while still thinking that a logical player is logical as any alignment.

Meant to preface: in another gamestate, where we didn't have 2 confirmed town and one likely town based on associations, etc.

[Lukewarm]

I have reconsidered the idea of voting out bell today. If we vote out bell today, then Egix dies in the night, and the entire game will depend on which of the two of us (me+ff) can convince Ivy to vote for the other one. Ivy has been so quiet, their vote is a bit of a wild card, and I am a bit hesitant on leaving the me vs you vote in her hands. I think I would much rather Egix be the one to make that decision.

So today, I think the vote needs to be either me or ivy, and then leave bell for ivy to deal with tomorrow.

If we vote Bell today I think that's the best chance we have of there being a day 4. He's my strongest scumread. Voting you or ivy increases the chances that scum win today. Voting me assures that scum win today. but that's knowledge that other town don't have and all I can do is play my town-heart out here and hope that other town players recognize that.

If you're town, then buck up and do the same - plan on surviving today so there's a day 4 that town has a chance of winning.

I am almost certain that that play will decrease the likelihood that town will win. If we vote out Bell today, then Day 4 will almost certainly be me, you, Ivy. And the town's win or lose will come down to which of us is better at swaying Ivy to vote the other person. Having seen how you play, I am not confident that I will be able to talk Ivy into making the right choice.

Quite honestly, I think you are more experienced / overall better player of this game then I am, and when it comes down to you vs me trying to convince Ivy, I am not confident that I can win. So I think town's best bet at winning, is placing the hard decision in the hands of Egix.

From my PoV my options are

• help vote Bell today, and then I lose the game for the whole town on Day 4
  
• put our fate in Egix's hands

[fferyllt]

Our fate is in Egix' hands.

I said the only way I'd WILLINGLY vote you was if we were in a 1v1 and both at E-1.

I would UNWILLINGLY vote you if that's what Egix wants to do. And I'd hope like hell I'm right about Ivy.

[fferyllt]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

[Lukewarm]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

Short form mafia, quite a bit. My family played One Night Ultimate Werewolf at least one night a week, every week (and often more) for several months. But 1) that is a very different game and 2)I was trying to read/trick my family members, not strangers on the internet lol.
Additionally, like 6ish years ago, I played some on Epic Mafia.

Long form mafia, not much. This is my first game on here. I have played a handful of games in a discord server, although once again, that server was full of people I knew irl (friends/family), plus those games moved a lot faster then this site. Like 2 irl days per in game day)

[fferyllt]

How much mafia experience do you have, out of curiosity?

Short form mafia, quite a bit. My family played One Night Ultimate Werewolf at least one night a week, every week (and often more) for several months. But 1) that is a very different game and 2)I was trying to read/trick my family members, not strangers on the internet lol.
Additionally, like 6ish years ago, I played some on Epic Mafia.

Long form mafia, not much. This is my first game on here. I have played a handful of games in a discord server, although once again, that server was full of people I knew irl (friends/family), plus those games moved a lot faster then this site. Like 2 irl days per in game day)

My experience is 99% forum mafia, with a tiny bit of chat-style mafia with super-short days and nights thrown in. I learned in a very different forum environment, with 14-24 hour days and 10-12 hour nights, with plurality votes (whoever has the most votes at the end of the day, regardless of whether it's a majority), and with different philosphies from MS about what constitutes balance. I've learned the MS style mafia game, but some of my instincts are from the pre MS days.

So, yeah, sounds like I have a lot more experience. It's a matter of opinion whether experience always translates to expertise/skill, but I think I'm pretty good at the game most of the time. Definitely not among the best of the best at MS, though!

It would be great if this game had 2 near-universal townreads along with Egix today. Ivy's the closest to universal, and she's but one.

[Egix96]

I'll be here for a little bit this morning if you need me for anything.
Unfortunately I don't think I'll have a lot of free time for reading through ISOs and all that, so yeah, see you in six days I guess

[fferyllt]

Any thoughts on how to proceed?

[Egix96]

Any thoughts on how to proceed?

Probably just wait for Ivyeo + Bell

[Egix96]

Actually, one hint I'm willing to offer is: try to get the scummiest person to vote first.

[Lukewarm]

So I think town's best bet at winning, is placing the hard decision in the hands of Egix.

Our fate is in Egix' hands.

so yeah, see you in six days I guess

[fferyllt]

IMO Egix should play his cards close to his vest during the early part of this day phase. I'm fine with this.

[Bell]

Will post tonight. Work. I’m sorry.

[fferyllt]

:/

It's really hard to be skeptical of my gut feel that I'm talking to town.

I'm going to do another reread. Maybe later today depending how I feel post-vaccine.