Open 808: The Council Has Spoken

[T3]

Raya is leantown. I'm up to about page 15.

[T3]

T Bone is basically taking abattlegroundstance. Back to null.

[T3]

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

[Raya36]

Welcome T3. You didn't see that A50 had already flipped before calling him scummy or saying him and moz could be partners?

UNVOTE: for now

[T3]

Welcome T3. You didn't see that A50 had already flipped before calling him scummy or saying him and moz could be partners?

UNVOTE: for now

No, I think I was up to about page 5.
What are your thoughts on mozamis?

[Raya36]

Moz is in my scum pool and I have some thoughts mainly around interactions where A50 and moz seemed too close to be partners. Like opposite of distancing. But it wasn't enough to fully clear them

[T3]

Basically you're saying moz A50 interactions are too good to be true. Fair.

[T3]

Confirmed town: Nono by Tracker, me by Doctor
Lean town: Raya, Arte
Null: yessur
Scum: mozamis

[Raya36]

What makes you say you're conftown by doctor

[yessiree]

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

hello hi

unless scum no killed I'm conftown as well

[T3]

Oh, yeah.
Wait then that leaves mozamis sticking out like a sore tyumb.
I think let's wait for the replacement though

[brassherald]

Lukewarm replaces mozamis.

[brassherald]

VC HERE when I have the time.

[T3]

HEAL: non, t3, yessir
Unless for some reason scum no killed we're al confirmed ton.

[Lukewarm]

Hello everyone

I'm gonna start working my way through the backlog, and then try to put some update post on where I'm feeling about the game state as I work through.

[T3]

Hello Lukewarm.

[Lukewarm]

I have never replaced into a game before, so not sure the best way to post as I read through. I decided on making periodic posts as I read through the game, with my reads at that point in the game. These reads will likely change as I get closer to being caught up, and even then I won't have done any ISOs (did not realize how much work replacing in was )

Here is my reads from Start of Game, to Day 1 council being formed (page 18). I had a note pad open as I scrolled through, and here are my notes next to each players names

T-Bone
Post 146 - I do not like this from a strategic standpoint. This feels like a bad strategy for town, but a good strategy for Mafia. But I don't think Mafia would blatantly say that lol. Null (maybe slight town) read
Generally slightly mixed feelings for them moving forward. They seem to be harping on Mozamis for a reason I don't agree with (like he seemed mad that they asked for his reads?), but that could stand out to me because this is my slot haha. Then they pressure Enchant pretty hard into giving out his reads, which has a town feel to it.
Currently at very slight town Lean

Almost50
Post 39 - this feels like a post that is purposefully trying to throw suspicion on someone who is clearly memeing mafia. Scum lean
Post 39 - This whole post felt very forced. The heeing and hawing, building up to a read list - all in the same post. Do not like.
Currently Scum Lean

Enchant
Post 39 Strong effort to come up with a winning strategy, and to convince other people to follow it. Town Lean
Post 324 Page 13, no reads...
Post 326 And here they are lol
I do not like that he was so hesitant to give out his reads, but he gives a decent reason behind it (Post412), and over all seems to be activly trying to keep town working towards a winning strategy
Currently Town Lean

Yessiree
The only note I jotted down for him is "bad vibes" lol
I will have to look at him closer moving forward / when I start doing ISOs

Artemiana
I did not write down the specific post, but: good vibes combating, imo, faulty logic.
Followed by: less good vibes
And finally: Good vibes are back.
Town lean

Nono
I got all the way to the council forming, without taking a single note on them. That is not a good look tbh
Scum lean

Mozamis
I was generally ignoring any analysis on my own slot, because I know I am town, but Post 138 has them confidently clearing two players that I have listed as scum leans currently

Battle Mage
After reading the set up, I thought the town should be careful with their heal votes, then he not only advocates for people to start putting votes out there, but he also scum reads people for being hesitant. I made a note of this, and then it kept coming up. Scum lean
Post 69 starts a lot of comments about a supposed scumslip, that does not look like a scum slip to me at all. When I am writing posts to other players, trying to help them see something from a new PoV , I always approach it as if they are town otherwise, I would start a lot of posts with "if you are town, then___". I have felt like that part can be assumed lol. They really doubled down on this too, bringing it up multiple times. Scum lean
I got to this point with a scum lean on them, but every single player (including my slot) town read them. I will have to give them a second look as I go forward and when I ISO them

Raya
Posts 114 and 119, Actively trying to optimize the council mechanic. town lean
Lots of good vibes reading through, but she has an exchange with Enchant that irked me a bit. Specifically the back and forth over Enchants read on Yessiree starting with Enchant post 326.
Mostly good vibes, but one exchange I did not like, still leaves them with a small town lean

I have more notes on interactions, but this is what made it to my reads notes.

Jumping back in, wish me luck!

[Lukewarm]

Hmm. formatting is not as clear as I would have liked. Next posts will add bullet points, so that the lines dont run together.

[Raya36]

Welcome Lukewarm!

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis. Just a quick hint for you. You should check who already flipped to save yourself some work

[Lukewarm]

I planned on working through to the end of Day 2, but I just gotta take a break. Here are my notes on the End of Day 1. I will post my Day 2 analysis once I manage to reach the end of the day.

We voted out scum day 1! That definitely makes a town win easier.

So looking back over Almost50's ISO:

• He started his heal vote as: [Moz, T-Bone, Almost 50]
  
• When he was told that he should not vote for himself, and changed it to [Moz, T-Bone, Yessiree] and held that stance for the entire rest of the day.
  
• When the council was almost settled, he pushed to get either Battle Mage or Atremiana off of the council, and replaced with one of his three.
  
• I think it is safe to assume he wanted a scum on the Council, so I feel like we should all be suspicious of Moz (me lol), Tbone, Yessiree, and this move hard skews both Artemiana and Battle mage as town imo

Almost50's Wagon

• Raya was the first person to vote Almost50, and is wishy washy on the vote, even says that Almost50 isnt her perfered vote. This vote is early enough that she would not have a reason to think it would pass especially with her not making a good case against him
  
• Nono, same as Raya. Early on the wagon, and very noncommittal to the read.
  
• Artemiana I almost want to give her full credit for getting Almost50 voted out, she build the case and convinced others to vote against him. Strong Town lean for that
  
• BattleMage put almost 50 at e-1 when there was still time to work towards moving the vote to Nono or Yessiree. A vote on either one of them would have tied them with Almost 50, meaning he could have at least tried to save Almost50 with very little effort. Strong town lean for that
  
• Enchant's quick hammer on Almost50, pretty much clears him

Battlemage, Artemiana, Enchant

all pretty much cleared at this point. Almost50 tried to pull both Battlemage and Artemiana off of the council, and then Artemiana and Battlemage were instrumental in getting him voted off. Enchant with the quick hammer

Yessiree, TBone

pretty suspicious are my primary suspects. I am most leaning towards Yessiree as Almost50's partner at this point. because they were the sub in when he had to remove himself, ie his heal votes was [pocket attempt on Moz, pocket attempt on Tbone, Scum] the whole time, it just started as himself, and then he swapped in his partner. It could be TBone, but he would have had to have been pretty ballsy to put both scum in his suggestion originally. So imo, Yessiree>TBone

Looking back over Tbone + Yessiree votes

T-bone never suggested a single council line up that did not include himself, which is not a good look.

Yessiree never voted for any combination at all until after it was established that everyone was going to choose one person other then themselves.

Neither one was on the Almost50 wagon either

Neither one voted for Almost50 to be on the council, but also, neither one voted for a full set up that did not include themselves, and also neither one voted for almost50, the scum reads on this are kind of a tie imo

So final reads at the end of Day 1:

• Battle Mage, Artemiana, Enchant
  
  
  Raya
  Nono
  
  
  Tbone
  Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

Welcome Lukewarm!

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis. Just a quick hint for you. You should check who already flipped to save yourself some work

hmm. I thought it would be good to give people an idea of my read progression throughout, and thought that would be tainted if I already knew the flips.

Maybe it didn't matter, but I am up to page 32 doing this way, so I don't know how much it would save me to switch over at this point.

[T3]

Towny entrance from Lukeaarm.
But tyen everyone is towny .-.

[T3]

Not really sure at this point. I think I might leave my vote where it is for now. Unless yessir nokilled (in that case, gg yessir) We have a decent shot if we go in the PoE.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, Day 2 analysis time!

Spoiler:

• As of post 599, every post I read from Tbon is coming accross as scum tbh. Leaning a bit more towards him over yes atm.
  
• Post 602 interesting arguement, not sure how to take it yet, but making a note to look back here later. / Post 622, raya dismantles the arguement a bit, applying same logic to BM
  
• Post 604, once again, completely disagreeing with my own slot. Almost suggested pulling Arte or BM off of the council before he had any reason to think he was going to be the elim that day. So this "manipulation once I flip red" logic really does not make sense to me
  
• Post 622 Raya looking a bit more town, Tbone definitly lower then Yes imo.
  
• General Comment: There seems to be a lot of talk about the RESULT of Almost50's request, TBone replacing Artemiana, without concidering his full request. See post 424. Almost requests either BM or Artemiana (town points for both, not just Art who actually got removed) and then replace them with one of Moz/Tbone/Yessiree (scum points for all three, not just Tbone)
  
• Post 633 Did not help with any reads, but made me laugh
  
• General Comment on Nono: I am still struggling to get a read on this guy, but his read in post 650 does not feel good to me.
  
• Post 660The level of hubris on this guy
  
• General Comment: I am getting bad vibes from T-Bone again , but I think its the tone of all of this posts, which might come down to personality not alignment. He is inching back up to yessiree.
  
• And then he is turning that perception back around a bit with Post 674
  
• Post 706 I think Battle Mage just clears TBone quite a bit in my mind with this post - "Tbone was advocating for himself to be tracked at one stage" and he was also advocating for there to be no doctor used. If he wanted himself to be tracked, he should have wanted the doctor ability to be used so he would have had some cover. If Tbone is tracked, and the council protected no one, and no one died, then his whole plan would have done nothing to clear himself? So his master plan was to use the council abilities to not clear himself at all?
  
• Post 711 - Still hard leaning towards Yes, but I agree that nono is an option to consider if yes flips town
  
• Post 720 - I am not liking how had BM is doubling down on "T-bone's plan is clearly bad" I can see the pros of not using the doctor ability. But I am also pretty sure BM is town... This might explain some of my earlier scum pings from him, he is just really brash with opinions that I don't agree with lol
  
• General Comment: There is a LOT of back and forth between BM and Tbone. With Raya trying to mediate. Like pages and pages of this. If I am right that Yessiree is scum, this very much played out in his favor.
  
• (Side note, I think not using the doctor ability was the better choice, but I think it was smart to track yessiree. Feels like they both had half the answer, but neither were willing to compromise / see the pros of the other person)
  
• General Comment: If it wasn't for almost50's plays on day 1, I would be very suspicious of Battle Mage, but as is, I think he is very loudly, and confidently, 3rd wolfing)
  
• General Comment: A lot of players appear to be sitting back, and letting the two of them duke it out. Raya and Moz are both chiming in, but there are an awful lot of people not trying to salvage the thread, which is overall beneficial for scum, because they can fade from the forefront of suspicion.
  
• General Comment: I have just had a thought about Almost50's play. I said him suggesting to pull one of BM / Art off of the wagon, but not Raya, is a mildly bad look for Raya tbh, but then them trying to mediate between BM and TBone is a good look. Much to consider if Yessiree ever flips town.
  
• Post 798 Yessiree makes a post that makes it clear that he understands the benefits of no-killing night 1, followed immediately by saying "that never crossed my mind before Day 2 started" Much suspicion.
  
• Post 816 My predecessor with the hot takes. /s
  
• General Comment: Raya has multiple posts saying that Nono and Almost were having too many anti-partner interactions, but everything they quoted was very non-committal. Could easily be read as distancing, because they never try to convince other people to follow their reads. Keeping Nono yellow for now.
  
• Post 877 Do not like this post. Enchant has already said he will hammer tbone before the dead line, but wants more time to talk, and then this feels like yessiree is trying to push enchant into hammering early.
  
• Post 887 Enchant reads my mind

IMO opinion, this was an entire day of TvT bickering, with Yessiree really riding under the Radar, and even getting some town cred for no apparent reason.

• Artemiana, Enchant
  Battle Mage
  
  
  Raya
  Nono
  
  
  Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

Enchant being killed should point to scum on the council. There's no way scum is bold, (or dumb) enough to target a council member when they know neither the tracker nor the doctor target

Unless you are the scum, and you can pretty confidently assume you are not going to be tracked 2 days in a row.