newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[Egix96]

I took a deep sigh and I think I might just wait for Egix too, because I actually had an adversely negative reaction to that post

Sry, here now. Which post?

[Egix96]

There is more backing it up them my own reads (which I have scum read you for a while tbh)

You were also Clasko's first pick for us to vote out yesterday

I've made my decision:

VOTE: fferyllt

Egix made a case for your slot having to be scum before you even replaced in.

VOTE: Endlessdark slot

And then even you argued against the idea that you could be town from my PoV.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low.

And I don't see Ivy or Unwnd making a case that they are a scum team either.

So I have my own reads / Clasko's read / Egix's day 2 logic / even your own logic to go on.

There are no signs pointing to a Ivy+Unwnd team, but an awful lot of signs all pointed at you.

Confirmed town doesn't mean confirmed right.
I'm just... not sure I like that this is the card you're choosing to play here.

[Egix96]

840? Eh, I don't feel particularly good or bad about it.

What I don't get is why, if unwnd "felt convinced of trying to clear up misunderstanding", they waited a while before unvoting rather than just doing it straight away.

[Egix96]

Spoiler: One man's descent into madness

9, 14 - Possible SvS equity between Luke and fferyslot.

17 - Or Saud is with ffery, hmm

Page 1 takeaway: Endless/ffery slot was voted by four town, with two different slots chainsawing them.

27, 31 - Very slight not-s/s interaction between endless and Ivy

36 - Possibly opportunistic vote from Luke, especially considering that his previous vote was Demain.

47 - Odd post from Saud, since Ahri's post was simply talking about a past game.

56 - This post may seem good at first, but it's actually not so good since it contributed to the general "Wheme will be yeeted, eventually" atmosphere of D1. (Ivyeo)

60 - Mild vibe that Saud's vote on Ivyeo was not a bus.

72 - Town lean for thought process here - this doesn't feel like something that new!scum come up with when justifying a scumread on town. (Copied from further up!!)

79 - "we want to execute our most likely scum do we not?" - Odd phrasing (Ivy)

84/85 - VERY mild vibe that - endless/Saud slots are not SvS...

90 - "My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko." - At time of writing, it's not possible for Luke/Ivy to be SvS, so rule of three does not apply. This is either a scum naming three town as their scumreads, or a town having (at most) one correct scumread.

Also, for the same post:
> I don't understand the logic
> I am town reading Demainer using same logic

96 - Not good vibes here, since scum are the ones who don't want town to have too many correct TRs. Clasko was townreading both Demain and Wheme, and it makes sense for scum to oppose that idea.

99 - No prize for you...

115 - "To clarify -- I'm down to eliminate WhemeStar. I'm not voting him yet in order to prolong the day / get more info." - See note on 56. Also, diplomacy!

131 - Like 84/85, but stronger this time.

133 - Comparable to 96 but in different context. The TR in question here was on Ivyeo, which lends credence to her not being scum with Saudslot.

137 - See my post 141 for questionable part.

142 - I've gone over this one before, see prior Egix posts for thoughts.

152 - Luke pocketing Ivyeo??

157/158 - Saud/Luke SvS stocks rising fast.

162 - Saud not yet having a read on me by that point is admittedly quite strange, but what gives me pause is that scum!Saud would probably be aiming to pocket me.

166 - "Whilst I am somewhat back and forth, my logic for it is consistent." - Isn't this just copying 152?

174 - Now endless is defending Luke as well. Ironically this probably makes Luke more likely to be scum, since (shudder) he could be with fferyslot...

176 - Oof, this one is a bit of a mess... implicit chainsaw defence of Luke, followed by "I could be wrong..." excuse.

211, 215 - Bad vibe Ivy posts.

227 - There's a small part of me that think that town would be more likely to feel bored - scum would be feeling more stressful.

230 - I think I mentioned this one before, but... diplomacy.

256 - Easy thing to say when every current wagon at the time was on town.

271 - "When I logged on today, both whemestar and ahri were at e-1, but no one else has stated an intent to hammer. This leads me to believe that one of the two of you is most likely actually scum (and that person's partner is already targeting the other person)." - Thought process (Luke)

272 - Town lean on whom? Demainer?

282 - Would guess from heuristics that one scum is on the Wheme wagon, with the other one of them being Saud slot.

289 - I find it a bit surprising that Luke questions this, considering that he has shown good thought processes elsewhere.

293/294 - I don't really feel like the scum team would vote the same person, one straight after the other. This lowers equity of Saud/Luke pair somewhat.

298 - Since Demain turned out to be town, my NAGL comment no longer applies.

306 - This reads list has two town as the "scum leans" and, if Luke is scum, partner in either neutral or town lean. Also, oddly, there is no reasoning for any of these reads, even though Luke claimed to have re-read the whole thread.

325/326 - Point where Luke goes all-in on scum-reading Demain.

330 - "To summarize the game so far, this game has been fairly inactive. There has been one miselimination." - Yes, that's very helpful! (Bell)

332 - "People that care but might be good scum:
Lukewarm" - Hrmmmm.

333 - Possibly partnery interaction - Aims to encourage more content from Bell but doesn't actively suspect him.

341 - Ivy suspects Demain for reasoning similar to mine, yet also suspects me secondarily. It's... interesting to say the least, but prooobably the good kind of interesting.

344 - Was Clasko right?? The problem was that, judging by what he wrote, he was really having to get out the shoehorn in order to justify his vote. Had he not claimed Cop, I would have found this very unnatural.

345 - What is up with the tone in the second half of this post?? (Onwards from "But luckily, we just got some new info...") It's just... really fake-looking...

349 - Even though this post was from a deadie, I am still placing a pin on it:
"I still want to believe that the scum team has an se, Ahri was the perfect nightkill

I don't see a dual newbie being bold enough to pull that off tbh"

351 - "My head is starting to hurt trying to decide between endlessdark and saudede" - Gdi, you're not making my life easy here.

358 - "I kinda don't like Lukewarm and Demainer based on posts through page 6. Although I do like Lukewarm's 143? Gives me a sense of why he was pushing so hard to get someone to E-1 & claim and that point - that the game's pacing is different from what he's used to." - Ffery scum with Luke????
From the same post: "I'm glad I got to the egix read before seeing the cop clear! I might be firing on more than a couple cylinders this game!" - Lamist vibes from tone.

361 - Fairly limp pushback on Demain from Ivy, but at the same time I kinda feel like scum would want to look more... idk, energetic??

364 - "I am also leaning against against Bell and Fferylly being partnered as well." - Well yeah, that was a thing... Interesting to see how Luke progressed from Ivy/ffery as top two most preferred yeets to his current stance.

374 - "I mean you have generated more discussions in the like 3 hours you have been in the game, then Ivy has generated in the whole of Day 2. Regardless of your alignment, keeping you in the game seems more likely to keep the thread from dying lol" - Sigh, more material that implies Luke/ffery.

378 - "I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM." - Very mild T vibes.

381 - Mild non-SvS ffery/Bell. From what little I recall of how ffery treats buddies, I don't feel like she would say she "really" didn't like it.

388 - Bad vibes from tone (Bell)

392 - I'm surprised Bell seemingly didn't know what that meant, considering his join date.

397 - Sigh, I don't know if I should get town feels from Bell waxing metaphorically.

400 - Well, ffery liked it at least.

401/402 - The problem with Bell being sarcastic is that it makes him unnecessarily hard to read...

404 - If ffery is scum, let it be known that this was the post that made me change my mind.

416 - "damn it. I'm already talking to you like you're town." - Ahhhh the town feels. Why would scum actually admit to thiiis...

418 - "@Ivy "My logic is consistent" I'm not sure what you meant by your logic was consistent. The rest of your post doesn't lay out a logical progression, consistent or otherwise." - See my note on 166.

427 - Town vibes from attitude (ffery)

440 - I still feel like the thought behind the "I looked back at both Ivy and Demainer's iso, to compare their comments before and after Bell and fferlly replaced in..." part was very novel, but the conclusion he ultimately comes to is questionable.

449 - Okay, maybe this isn't scum with Luke, since it brings up the whole idea of him being a deepwolf.

472 - Another post which reduces likelihood of ffery/Luke SvS.

505 - "Posts that are making me question my Luke-scum read are apparently making you think he could be scum. I want to understand that." - Mild T vibes (ffery)

511 - I'm not seeing the contradiction??

514/517 - Sighhh what if Demain was right?? Ahhhhhhhhhhh.

520 - "What does it mean to be 'openwolfing'?" - I'll take "questions that didn't need to be asked because you could have easily figured out the answer yourself" for five hundred, Alex.

522 - By this point, Luke had been using the word "lol" in several of his posts, so admittedly this is an odd time for Ivy to be bringing it up.

Up to and including page 21. I would go further, but this is starting to feel like a chore.

[Egix96]

What I will say, though, is that there's a certain person I've talked myself into thinking is scum.

Tl;dr that person was Luke.

[fferyllt]

I've been rethinking Ivy. :/

[unwnd]

Have been busy today but egix I'm pretty sure i unvoted once i realized the situation fully

[Lukewarm]

I've been rethinking Ivy. :/

Same actually

[Lukewarm]

What I will say, though, is that there's a certain person I've talked myself into thinking is scum.

Tl;dr that person was Luke.

Oh my god, get me out of this game....

[Lukewarm]

There is more backing it up them my own reads (which I have scum read you for a while tbh)

You were also Clasko's first pick for us to vote out yesterday

I've made my decision:

VOTE: fferyllt

Egix made a case for your slot having to be scum before you even replaced in.

VOTE: Endlessdark slot

And then even you argued against the idea that you could be town from my PoV.

I'm about 99.9% sure of Bell. The probability of Ivy-scum with Bell is incredibly low.

And I don't see Ivy or Unwnd making a case that they are a scum team either.

So I have my own reads / Clasko's read / Egix's day 2 logic / even your own logic to go on.

There are no signs pointing to a Ivy+Unwnd team, but an awful lot of signs all pointed at you.

Confirmed town doesn't mean confirmed right.
I'm just... not sure I like that this is the card you're choosing to play here.

I never said that it did. I have explained multiple times how I have come to the conclusion that it must be ffery in multiple posts, and then also feel vindicated a bit because everything everyone else is saying lines up with my own logic. Like, literally look at 807, the post immediately before that one.

[Lukewarm]

This is what I have seen from ffery, that terrifies me, and is the main reason I came into today saying that I do not want to go into Day 4 with both me and ffery.

She replaced in, and multiple people had her slot pinned down as scum. And she started posting, and posting, and posting, and she managed to crack that perception. And then she kept posting and posting and posting, and managed to convince the entire lobby that Demainer was the correct vote.

Spoiler:

While I did think that Demainer was scum, I openly advocated against voting him off Post 611, I outlined that a vote against demainer, if he did flip town, would put us in a much more precarious position then voting ffery (and here we are)

But ffery kept posting, and posting, and posting, and all 4 members of town followed the vote she recommended. Like, from my PoV all 4 votes on Demainer were town, and that terrifies me.

And then today, she has posted, and posted, and posted. She is 43% of all posts today, in a 5 person game. And she has successfully talked Egix into thinking I am scum, and also made everyone (myself included) unsure of their town reads on Ivy.

Fferyllt keeps saying that she would never play this way as scum, but from my PoV the way she is posting is very successfuly leading the town to its own destruction. She convinced the town that her slot shouldn't be locked under suspicion, she convinced the town that we should vote out Demainer, she convinced the confirmed town that I am scum, and she has convinced everyone to become suspicious of Ivy.

If we do not vote out Fferyllt today, please vote me. Put me out of my misery.

[Lukewarm]

Side note: I am now aware that that is called open wolfing on this site lol. What confused me at the time when Demainer said that I might be open wolfing, was that I have head open wolfing being used in the past to mean "opening saying you are a wolf" if for example, in a game of One Night Ultimate Werewolf, there are times that the werewolves can outnumber the town, and once that happens the best bet is to reveal yourself as a werewolf.

[fferyllt]

please vote me. Put me out of my misery.

If you're town, that will lose the game today.

That's WHY I've put so much effort into the game -- it ends today if I'm miselimed. And that may happen anyway, because it only takes one town player voting me for it to happen.

If you're town, whatever you do -- don't give up. What I did on day 2 was terrible play -- not because I voted or didn't vote. Not because I was wrong about Demainer. Because I decided my slot needed to NOT be around in a day 3 ELO instead of trying my hardest to get scum elimed.

[fferyllt]

Have been busy today but egix I'm pretty sure i unvoted once i realized the situation fully

Are you going to be able to get into the game today?

[unwnd]

Yeah I'm all settled in for the day with my own distracting thoughts

[unwnd]

and also made everyone (myself included) unsure of their town reads on Ivy.

Can you tell me what this exactly means? Are you still thinking it's me/FFery?

[unwnd]

If it seems like I'm focused on myself that's because I am. I don't want to be mislimmed and nothing to me suggests that I'm out of the clear.

[fferyllt]

I'd really like to see how you're reading everyone else today.

[unwnd]

Give yourself agency if that's what's holding you back. The way you're playing right now scares me. You want me to reevaluate Bell, but I need YOU to process the game now. Bell's gone and none of the questions I want to ask him can be asked now.

I feel I've talked about my own disposition and I don't feel privy to repeat it. My personal feeling is seeing the game in two ways

1) You/Luke are sweating in a mafia PT together while trying to maintain the proposed image throughout this whole day, while a despondent town Ivyeo feels like she has no voice
2) One of you/Luke is shielding Ivyeo

I am proposing the 2nd option right now and have been since I repped in. However, I don't want to be fooled. I don't want to be the person who says 'let's rethink this' then have Ivyeo just end up town. The question I have to ask you is this: in a situation where scum is one lim away from victory, do you think now would be the time to bet it all? Do you still scumread Lukewarm? I've seen you two slowly backing off from another

[fferyllt]

If I were scum, I wouldn't bet it all on today. I keep thinking about Bell-town putting the vote down and then leaving the game and wondering how that didn't end with my miselim. I have a couple of theories I want to pursue.

I can't seem to hold onto a read for more than about 24 hours before it starts to flip. It's an insane oscillation and it's taking a toll.

I need more from you than 868 though.

I need to see

how

you're

processing

the

game.

[fferyllt]

1) You/Luke are sweating in a mafia PT together while trying to maintain the proposed image throughout this whole day, while a despondent town Ivyeo feels like she has no voice

This gamestate would never have come about if I were scum with Luke. Demainer would have probably been the miselim, but my day 2 would have been as squeaky clean as I could make it and wouldn't have featured a dust-up with Town-Bell.

Or Scum-Bell for that matter.

I was trying to shield Ivy on day 2, btw. It may have been the right call, but I've had a lot of doubts about it.

[unwnd]

I'm not sure what else you want me to say in that regard. I'm townreading your effort more than Lukewarm. I think Lukewarm is proceeding to be overwhelmed but at the cost of not being able to put up the act much longer. Maybe you've got more stamina as scum but I think at some point your lim is becoming impossible. Even Egix doesn't really wanna lim you anymore. If you've achieved that as scum then good job. I already told you by the time I replaced in that I wouldn't be the one to catch you.

That also being said, the amount of back+forth between you and Lukewarm to me is pretty inconceivable. Selling it one time between the two of you? OK, maybe. Twice? Overkill. I think what captivates me the most is that you two are speaking to each other in a different way. Lukewarm says you're scum because he's mapped this game out in his head and he builds an audience around his words. You say he's scum because of all of the logical steps you've taken such as rereading the game thoroughly. In some crazy ass situation where you two were scum together the game is lost. That's genuinely how I take it, so I'd rather just hedge my bets between you and that probably ends on Lukewarm.

[unwnd]

That being said, we can go the other way. We could all just agree to vote Ivyeo, and that is a scenario both of you seem more willing to think about. That comes down to what Ivyeo has to say however, because some part of me does feel bad for her. Looking back on her own posts I was scumreading her lack of attribution over the course of time, and especially the instance where it suddenly seemed like something clicked for her. However, that is just one instance amongst a bunch of posts that are mostly cautious and unsure. Is it just that her own confidence was taken from her once she was wrong? Or is it because she's afraid of making the wrong move for her partner?

[fferyllt]

One thing I've been wanting to do is look at the timestamps between when Bell voted me and replaced out and when unwnd replaced him.

The question I wanted to answer was whether it makes sense that a Luke/Ivy scumteam would hold off voting. Here's what I found:

I'll put the times in US Eastern and US Pacific (my time) and hopefully that's easy for others to translate. Or, check my work and look at the posts in your own timezone.

6:41 US ET, 3:41 US PT -- Bell votes me

Luke posts multiple times after that until 11:34 PM US ET, 8:34 US PT

12: 52 US ET, 9:52 US PT -- Ivy posts for the first time since Bell's vote. She posts again at 5:01 AM US ET, 2:01 AM US PT

They were in the game thread within >1 hour of each other. There's a possibility they were both online during that time, but no evidence.

10:15 AM US ET, 7:15 AM US PT Luke posts.

2:51 PM US ET, 11:51 AM US PT Ivy posts.

3:25 PM US ET/12:25 PM US PT schadd_ announced unwind replace-in.

It's possible that having no idea when a Bell replacement would happen, that a Luke/Ivy team wouldn't feel safe putting down one vote and then waiting for the other to come online and hammer.

Without certainty that they were online together during that time, I can't rule out a Luke/Ivy scumteam.

I probably wouldn't have chanced it, myself in a situation like this without knowing for a fact my partner was online.

-----------------------

This is no doubt good news to you, unwnd. :/

[unwnd]

That legitimately makes me feel better yes