Open 808: The Council Has Spoken

[Lukewarm]

I did my homework and re-read Tbone vs BM, especially #710, and I find BM's reasoning for pushing TBone to be disingenuous. The kill last night also reinforces scum!BM imo.

can you talk me through both points?

It's late for me, so can't type a lot right now. But the gist of it is that your premise for pushing TBone is flawed from the beginning - it started from a misrepresentation of his motivation behind his choice of council actions and you continued down that path. In retrospect I shouldn't have skimmed because I would've caught onto it but I just didn't feel like reading walls at the time

As for the second point, I've already explained above. Killing a council member from outside the council is inconceivable, and since you, Arte, and Enchant were the council last night.

There was none of this coming from Yessiree on Day 2. Seems like he let that tvt arguement result in one town miselim, and then tried to turn it into a second one.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I am up to date.

Nono is full cleared by the council.
Artemiana and

Battle Mage

T3 are almost full cleared in my mind, given Almost50 trying to get either of them off the council, and then the two of them pushing Almost50 out of the game.


That just leaves me, Yessiree, Raya.

I think Raya is the least suspicious of the 3. They were on the N1 councll, and could have easily gotten a kill in. Then on Day2 they were the only player trying to mediate BM and Tbone, where a scum player could have just sat back and let town tear itself apart.

IMO, everything lines up for Yessiree to be scum. He was not on the Almost50 wagon. There was no kill the night he was tracked. He was 3rd on the TBone wagon, stayed there until it passed, then started Day 2 by immediately saying BattleMage's logic for pushing TBone was bad. He could have safely assumed he was not going to be tracked two days in a row, so a night 2 kill would have been safe for him.

I know that

Moz

I am town, but tbh, it is hard to build a solid case for it. I disagreed with so many of the stances moz took . Light case being, they were the only person other then Raya chiming in during the Battle Mage v Tbone argument, and they kept insisting it was TvT. Scum Moz would have wanted the consensus to end on SvT.


Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

[T3]

I don't see why scum yessiree would no kill though. I do agree with most of what you're saying about everything else.

[Lukewarm]

I don't see why scum yessiree would no kill though. I do agree with most of what you're saying about everything else.

There's multiple pros to no-killing last night.
1 - it makes an even number, which is theoretically pro-scum, by making it harder to get an elimination (5 needed to reach consensus in 8p versus 4 needed in 7p), and also maximizes the elim pool.
2 - it denies the council PR utility. In a no-kill scenario, doctor is useless (no one needed to protect), and tracker can never generate ICs

[Lukewarm]

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

[Raya36]

Well that was one of my original council options and who I wanted elimed the most so I'm happy with that

HEAL: nono, art, T3

[Lukewarm]

When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

hmmmm it has been a while since I was in a statistics course, so I think I did this math wrong. That is the odds that they both targetted exactly BattleMage specifically, not the odds that they both hit the same target overall.

Math is hard, and I don't really want to figure out the right way to calculate that. So I'll update it to:

When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly,

there is not a great chance

of them landing on the same target.

[T3]

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

Oh, that makes sense. HEAL: T3, nono, arte
UNVOTE: Lukewarm

[Raya36]

I think that hammers the council. Let's wait for brass to confirm this before we vote incase we hammer before a council is chosen. We still have 2 days

[yessiree]

I'm checking in. What's the deadline? And how's the votes looking like? Gonna be busy this weekend so don't have much time

[yessiree]

What council was hammered? BM slot, nono and artemiana? Should be ok I think.

[T3]

Deadline in a day.
This might be an oversimplification but unless we all got played by Raya it's basically autowin.
VOTE: Lukewarm
Lukewarm hasn't been particularly scummy but the previous player in the slot was really bad.

[Raya36]

I'd rather yessiree but still want to wait for the council to be confirmed

[Artemiana]

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

Okay, I am up to date.

Nono is full cleared by the council.
Artemiana and

Battle Mage

T3 are almost full cleared in my mind, given Almost50 trying to get either of them off the council, and then the two of them pushing Almost50 out of the game.


That just leaves me, Yessiree, Raya.

I think Raya is the least suspicious of the 3. They were on the N1 councll, and could have easily gotten a kill in. Then on Day2 they were the only player trying to mediate BM and Tbone, where a scum player could have just sat back and let town tear itself apart.

IMO, everything lines up for Yessiree to be scum. He was not on the Almost50 wagon. There was no kill the night he was tracked. He was 3rd on the TBone wagon, stayed there until it passed, then started Day 2 by immediately saying BattleMage's logic for pushing TBone was bad. He could have safely assumed he was not going to be tracked two days in a row, so a night 2 kill would have been safe for him.

I know that

Moz

I am town, but tbh, it is hard to build a solid case for it. I disagreed with so many of the stances moz took . Light case being, they were the only person other then Raya chiming in during the Battle Mage v Tbone argument, and they kept insisting it was TvT. Scum Moz would have wanted the consensus to end on SvT.


Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

Well that was one of my original council options and who I wanted elimed the most so I'm happy with that

HEAL: nono, art, T3

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

Oh, that makes sense. HEAL: T3, nono, arte
UNVOTE: Lukewarm

That's hammer I think.

Lukewarm is the best Elim if we go to night, then it the doc/track thing from N1 can be entertained

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm is the best Elim if we go to night, then it the doc/track thing from N1 can be entertained

I get this tbh. My own way of reading the game up to when I replaced in narrowed it down to either Yessiree or Moz. But I know I am town, so just leaves
Yessiree from my PoV.

I would prefer we eliminate yessiree today, but I am okay with an elimination on me, so long as everyone keeps Yessiree in the forefront of the scum hunt moving forwards. I'm gonna leave my vote on Yessiree until we get a bit closer to the deadline, but will self-hammer if needed for us to avoid a no-elim today.

[Lukewarm]

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

Okay, I am up to date.

Nono is full cleared by the council.
Artemiana and

Battle Mage

T3 are almost full cleared in my mind, given Almost50 trying to get either of them off the council, and then the two of them pushing Almost50 out of the game.


That just leaves me, Yessiree, Raya.

I think Raya is the least suspicious of the 3. They were on the N1 councll, and could have easily gotten a kill in. Then on Day2 they were the only player trying to mediate BM and Tbone, where a scum player could have just sat back and let town tear itself apart.

IMO, everything lines up for Yessiree to be scum. He was not on the Almost50 wagon. There was no kill the night he was tracked. He was 3rd on the TBone wagon, stayed there until it passed, then started Day 2 by immediately saying BattleMage's logic for pushing TBone was bad. He could have safely assumed he was not going to be tracked two days in a row, so a night 2 kill would have been safe for him.

I know that

Moz

I am town, but tbh, it is hard to build a solid case for it. I disagreed with so many of the stances moz took . Light case being, they were the only person other then Raya chiming in during the Battle Mage v Tbone argument, and they kept insisting it was TvT. Scum Moz would have wanted the consensus to end on SvT.


Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

Well that was one of my original council options and who I wanted elimed the most so I'm happy with that

HEAL: nono, art, T3

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

Oh, that makes sense. HEAL: T3, nono, arte
UNVOTE: Lukewarm

That's hammer I think.

Wait, is that a hammer? You quoted T3 twice, so it may just be 3 votes, and we need 4 to hammer.

[Lukewarm]

I am going to go through and point a few things I noticed about Yessiree, to leave for posterity assuming I am voted off today:

I think killing T-Bone is... Bad decision. {snip}

you've been charmed by T-Bone's powerful charisma. Strong players will make you feel awful for trying to eliminate them, this much is given, and this is probably what you're going through now

As for your plan, seems ridiculous at first glance, but I get it somewhat after giving it some thought

This is one of Yessiree's final posts of Day 2. Fully convinced that T-Bone is the correct vote, no sign of doubt on BM's logic, and even pressuring other people to hammer the vote

I did my homework and re-read Tbone vs BM, especially #710, and I find BM's reasoning for pushing TBone to be disingenuous. The kill last night also reinforces scum!BM imo.

And then his entrance into day 3. Immediately trying to to capitalize on the BM v TBone discussion to push a scum-BM narrative.

Is it just yessiree and that whole T-Bone and BM thing was actually TvT? And if that's wrong then we just go for BM next. I still think by A50 interaction moz is semi-clear. And Art too.

And what if you're wrong on both me and BM? It's 1:5 now, elimming me + night kill makes it 1:3, which will already be MyLo (...MeLo? MILO?)

Kinda sounds like you want me to be too suspicious/worried to vote you now...

I'm not 100% sure BM is scum, and obviously I know I'm town. So why don't you reconsider this plan of yours for a second.

But then Raya did not bite on the BM=scum line, and suggested instead that we vote Yes today followed by BM tomorrow. And Yessiree changed his tune, and started suggesting a no vote

HEAL: nono, arte, yessiree

VOTE: no lim

[Lukewarm]

I also noticed that he has been trying to steer town away from considering him. Subtly here:

Enchant being killed should point to scum on the council. There's no way scum is bold, (or dumb) enough to target a council member when they know neither the tracker nor the doctor target

By claiming that the scum must be on the council, without a good reason to back it up. Scum must know that they cannot no kill forever, so must weigh the chance that they are going to be tracked. The council obviously knows they are not being tracked, but any player who was scum and not under heavy suspicion at the end of Day 2 would have felt emboldened to kill Night 2.

From my PoV:
Night 1 scum was worried they would be tracked, so they no killed. That would heavily skew towards people no on Almost50's wagon, so Yessiree or Moz. All other players could have been reasonably confident they were not going to be tracked

Night 2 scum did not think they were going to be tracked. Nono seemed to be the consensus on Day 2 that he was most suspicious, most other player could have been reasonably confident they were not going to be tracked. Doubly so for Yessiree, after being tracked N1, I think it was a safe bet he was not going to be tracked two nights in a row.

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

And once people replaced in, he tried to make sure he was getting the town cred from the Night 1 track, even through his track does not actually clear him because no one died.

[Raya36]

Unofficial

T3, yessiree, Nono (1):

Artemiana

Nono, artemiana, yessiree (2)

yessiree, Nono

Nono, Artemiana, T3 (3)

Lukewarm, Raya36, T3

Not Voting (0):

Remember, a valid vote for council will be three players within a heal tag, the council will be locked in when 4 players propose the same three person council.

Unofficial

Lukewarm (2):

Artemiana, T3

Yessiree (1):

Lukewarm

No Elimination (1):

yessiree

Not Voting (2):

Nono, Raya36

With 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to eliminate.
Day 3 will end without a council or an elimination in (expired on 2021-04-25 17:30:00)

[Raya36]

We still need to hammer the council, and we need to decide our elimination

[Raya36]

I like the council I'm on.

I don't think I'll be back before deadline so just in case: VOTE: yessiree

[Lukewarm]

I like the council I'm on.

I don't think I'll be back before deadline so just in case: VOTE: yessiree

Hmm. If he is not going to be back before the deadline, he probably should have voted for me. That would have given me the ability to self hammer if no one else (outside of artemiana and t3) check in before the dead line :/

Now in order for us to get an elimination today, we are reliant on either other people checking in, or both Artemiana and T3 switching their votes to Yessiree.

[T3]

Few hours to deadline. VOTE: yessiree

[Lukewarm]

That puts Yessiree at e-1

[yessiree]

What. I thought we had more time when I checked yesterday?? I was gonna respond to stuff when I'm at work tomorrow