Mini 2206 - Deja Vu Flashbacks

[Momrangal]

I mean logically I know why distancing it makes sense, it was just like... why throw suspicion on us when you could just elim nacho

I hope there isn't any hard feelings. I wanted Bork gone so like, yeah. I also wanted to talk before we had to decide which one of us was going to be sacrificial goats, and I also wanted to see like, how things go. At the end of the day, what it all boils down to though is making fantastic scum theatre though because like, by doing that it increases the chance of the endgamer to pull through on the victory

[Momrangal]

I don't really know if killing NM is a good idea anymore because it felt like mom TMIed our push on nacho, and an NM flip might make bork reconsider our slot

I wouldn't have made the push if I thought that town would come to that conclusion. It feels like that because it absolutely was TMI but the question is, will town think so?

I think Peta could pull through tomorrow, i think everyone could pull through tomorrow but the issue with NM is that, I feel like he's eventually going to get eliminated especially if he doesn't get in there and save himself. I also feel like I now got bork under my finger and I can probably manipulate him into doing what I want. I have good means of pushing cakes, so far i caught him twice in every game I've had with him, and both games I've played he's doing the exact same thing.

I've also been able to pin down partially what scum (or 3p) were planning in the game in town shady, bears with guns and mizzys large Normal. In all those games, scum went after me. Tomorrow, we should get a major hard reset from town and hopefully that means I can weasel my way in

[Not_Mafia]

Sup

[petapan]

i will reiterate that spending too much time specifically calling out your teammate when they're deep is the type of distancing that is incredibly obvious to someone who knows what to look for, and that is something to be careful. you are probably too committed at this point to change gears, just keep it in mind. having your views tend toward anti-consensus can help this.

Not_Mafia is no more likely to be flipped tomorrow than he was day 1, and people had an ABSURD level of resistance to that idea. i think safehousing him is suboptimal because then i'm largely locked into voting momrangal still.

in general the person to be safehoused should be the most likely person to get flipped. i just spent several days stalling saying i wanted to talk to nacho then hammering him before we could have words. there is almost no way i can explain my way out of that one. i don't know how much more clear i can make this.

ultimately again it's not about saving someone from being flipped necessarily but taking someone out of the limelight so there is more chance town makes an incorrect decision. as stated we need 1 more elim on town to reach a final 4 where i believe our odds are good.

i think making the argument that you get pushed as a wagon by scum often is a good one and you should use that

[petapan]

Sup

not much how you doin

[Momrangal]

I don't really see a world where I don't push NM because I've already committed to that, and I don't think I could naturally bus your slot.

If town resist NM to much, I could probably work my way into eliminating Cakes, and maybe infinity. I'm not as keen to go into bussing tomorrow as I have done it today but like I'm also not a person who does super well when she pre-plans a lot of things.I've always been an intuitive player and I think I can make my stances beleivable.

I mean, also. Mizzys large normal shows that NM gets bussed hard but still gets saved by town because LHF and my biggest worry now is that I've played into that meta but I don't think it's really a thing that will get brought up unless someone is very aware of who NM is as a player so like that might be something I would have to deal with.

As far as VFP is concerned I have a few other people who I "believe" is a major player in my chainsaw theory so I can probably put them a bit on the back burner and single out someone else

[petapan]

pushing NM is fine, keep doing that, was referring to you talking about vft lol

[Menalque]

I think pushing NM is not the one

[Menalque]

I feel like to quite a strong extent this town is reading similar thoughts as town and different thoughts as scum

So given that the townbloc all agree on most stuff, getting them to TR you is basically just presenting the same conclusions they already have (at least predominantly)

Like I think the change to our slot was heavily based on how after I’d taken a couple of days away and everyone had forgotten, I came back to go “oh actually kismet is town” and stopped focussing on NM at all (because they all think NM is a waste of time for focusing on and there are other priorities and therefore anyone who does so is scummy). And then it kinda snowballed on its own logic bc like, suddenly salsa isn’t thinking the same way as them bc she’s still calling me scum which is something they’re starting to disagree on

[Menalque]

So yeh imo mom, your best bet to survive is just to walk back on p much everything you’ve been saying so far and sheep the townbloc’s opinions as non-obviously as possible

[Momrangal]

pushing NM is fine, keep doing that, was referring to you talking about vft lol

I probably will eventually back walk on VFT but like, I do have a history as town to push some of the most ridiculous of scum reads for better or worse. I'm not the best at reevals at my current iteration especially when it looks like I'm right so the trick.

I've done a lot of strong arming as town and I think infinity will hold me accountable to that.

I also probably should have an opinion on you/ydra at some point

[Momrangal]

So the trick here would be to not look weird and off meta if/when I do back track.

Most likely, I see it happening if I end up strong arming a town elimination here, which I can feasibly see myself doing

[Momrangal]

SirCakez
Salsabil Faria
Kismet
Infinity
notscience
The Bulge

This is all we have to work around and current I think Noddy and kismet are the two biggest blocks to victory here Imo. A hard reset from both of them is going to happen and cakes should be an easy enough elimination once I pull some meta strings. Salsa is sharp, but easy to deal with however we shouldn't underestimate her. The threat isn't as bad as it looks like. Nacho was a major powerhouse player and him being gone increases our chances of winning greatly by any one of us I think.

[Momrangal]

NM
ydra/Mena
Lillith/skitter
Peta
Mom

Its hard because I feel like all above mentioned has a strong chance of getting to end game.

NMs survival ability is ridiculous
DC blends in well together, I think and like I do think Menas sheeping plan works very well for them
VFP is the most town read at the moment so I don't actually want to push that as much as I'm making it appears that I'm doing it
And I don't think Peta is as doomed as he believes he is.

How do we single out a weak link when everyone so far as shown that they can hold their own is the question

[Momrangal]

I also think the fact that the nacho wagon being predominantly town a good sign.

[skitter30]

K those vaccine side effects were awful but i'm finally feeling seminormal again and have a *lot* to say, which i will get to shortly

[petapan]

glad to hear you're doing all right

[skitter30]

thanks :)
had a fairly miserable 36 hours or so but i'm feeling a lot better now :)

~

i didn't read through this whole pt yet but my initial thoughts are:

1. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh why isn't daytalk a thing :/ this makes everything so much more complicated than it should be
2. me and lilith spent quite a lot of the day trying to telepathically communicate to you lot to vote nacho and couldn't figure out why you were all avoiding the wagon like the plague, there were so many points any of you could have voted with little to no suspicion
3. i'm p sure that me/lilith are gonna be endgame scum, and we need one other slot to be able to get there, as i think we need to win 3/5 so we need to have a final 2 remaining if i understand correctly. i'm thinking that's probably dc?
4. my rough plan (which, ironically enuf i noted about 20 min before bork said scum never plan anything) is something like: peta tonight, someone (mom?) gets bussed tomorrow, and we use that to flip bork n2. day3 we flip like bulge/cakez, and probably lose nm that night, taking us to elo which i think we can win

[skitter30]

ugh I actually think doing nacho tomorrow would have been much better but didn't want to stand out by being too TMI on his alignment

i'm p sure today was the only day it was going to happen. it was the best possible outcome we could have gotten out of today imo
if he didn't flip today one of us would which meant that overnight we'd have to kill like bork or notsci (who, incidentally, are the main people pushing nacho)

[skitter30]

(also sorry for the "thought you were better than this" bit skitter, obviously didn't mean it)

<3

[skitter30]

also just jfc this is one of the sweatiest games I think I've ever been in

i'm actually enjoying it like anything ngl lol

[skitter30]

lillith, like i said, my goal was to attack the townbloc and enshrine in people's minds that it is in fact pure and i felt threatened by this. you can use the instances of, like, panic room, divide and conquer as recent games where scum just kind of got boxed in early and were hopeless for finding ways out. that's the effect i was trying to invoke

my initial approach anyway was to make it look like i was appealing to you

ok i couldn't fully get where you were going with this at the time but this is helpful, thanks

[skitter30]

@lili my entire mindset has basically been that you need to endgame as the only slot that's really TR as scum, and to do so you need to not have associatives with an y of us who are likely to go down at some point

so my entire approach was to distance from your slot while not actually getting in the way too much with what you were trying to achieve (although I did honestly disagree on doing nacho today vs tomo)

unless i'm counting wrong there's going to be at least two scum alive the final day, no?

like i'm kinda thinking:

day2: 10 alive, 6 town 4 scum
day3: 8 alive, 5 town 3 scum
day4: 6 alive, 4 town 2 scum ----- > i htink our best shot is to win here
day5: 4 alive, 3 town 1 scum

[skitter30]

Subject: Mini 2206 - Deja Vu: Perpetual MELO IV (Night 1)

good
Kismet
Salsabil Faria
Infinity 324

good?
notscience

bad
SirCakez
Leafeon and Glaceon (beeboy, Mistyx hydra)
Not_Mafia
Brave Heart Lion
Disaster Cartel (Menalque, Ydrasse hydra)
Venus Fly Trap (skitter30, lilith2013 hydra)
The Bulge

Like this was fucking terrifying lol

they were awesome reads!
but also ultimately irrelevant because people weren't gonna listen to him + his reads kept changing in unnatural ways

and even better for us he didn't leave any of those final reads

[petapan]

2. me and lilith spent quite a lot of the day trying to telepathically communicate to you lot to vote nacho and couldn't figure out why you were all avoiding the wagon like the plague, there were so many points any of you could have voted with little to no suspicion

i very much picked up on that signal after a minute when i replaced in but felt committed my nacho read both because of recent personal experience and because i felt reverse psychology would be more effective here (and cakez, like, immediately took the bait and jumped on nacho when i started defending him lmfao)

4. my rough plan (which, ironically enuf i noted about 20 min before bork said scum never plan anything) is something like: peta tonight, someone (mom?) gets bussed tomorrow, and we use that to flip bork n2. day3 we flip like bulge/cakez, and probably lose nm that night, taking us to elo which i think we can win

this is about how i'd lay out the road map as well, i think you still have the potential to carry in 4 way though

i left some seeds along the way that i mentioned, hopefully you can take advantage of those


i didn't fully read the game in context, but in general i think there were a lot of people sussing my slot but who ultimately voted nacho and i think that should be highly advantageous for you in later days