Mini Normal 2205: RotITGBSMoD [game over!]

[Andresvmb]

it's kinda meta stuff, I think I understand his playstyle a little more idk we'll see if he has a gun tonight

T3 is a bad check. Try somewhere else.

[InsidiousLemons]

And if alive, you’re probably going to get a 1v1 at that point. It’s almost inevitable. Would the Scum risk that? I don’t know.

you lost me at this part. if who is alive? 1v1? would the scum risk what?

[InsidiousLemons]

it's kinda meta stuff, I think I understand his playstyle a little more idk we'll see if he has a gun tonight

T3 is a bad check. Try somewhere else.

why do you think so? who is a better option?

[DkKoba]

andres are u catching up or are u just ignoring me

[Andresvmb]

@salsa, oh I'm pretty sure dragons is flipping town, but there was a big wagon on him so I wanted to see, like if anyone would quick vote STD while I had STD at E-1, and in the process VFP tried to create as much distance from STD as he could... but yeah, STD's slot is just complicated, I'm like too sure he's flipping town, it's great

Yeah, I'm suspicious about

VFP

too atm. Want to wagon him?

VOTE: VFP

as i said i dont think vfp is the kill for d1 but i'm definitely willing to listen

vfp really doesn't feel like a terrible choice. they have a scum read on greencrayons for, as far as i can tell, merely disagreeing with them re: humour being a problem. they distanced themself from the STD wagon for very shoddy reasons in 1577 as soon as people started talking about the likelihood of scum being on it, and have been doing a whole lot of nothing for... pages and pages now.

If Asteria is Town, and VFP is Town, I think I would look here. There were some posts at the end of the day that pinged me about Insidious and I was trying to figure out why I had that feeling and I don’t know, there’s something here.

[Andresvmb]

andres are u catching up or are u just ignoring me

I was catching up. What’s up?

[DkKoba]

andres are u catching up or are u just ignoring me

I was catching up. What’s up?

just a few posts i just made

[Andresvmb]

And if alive, you’re probably going to get a 1v1 at that point. It’s almost inevitable. Would the Scum risk that? I don’t know.

you lost me at this part. if who is alive? 1v1? would the scum risk what?

If we leave Asteria alive, don’t execute there. And the Scum decide not to shoot there tonight because they believe the non-consecutive, right? Say we miss with every execution, but Asteria is still around. If the Scum don’t shoot there, they very likely put themselves in a situation were Asteria picks a player and they come back as not Vanilla Townie. Since we have specific claims from players, and we have a sense for the guns and who has them, that’s almost as good as a red check. Almost. That puts the Scum in a tough spot. That’s all I’m saying.

[Andresvmb]

if asteria is fake she is almost certainly defending her scumbuddy. if she's gonna clear a random person why not pick someone other people TR'd more universally?

Isn’t there a lot of value in clearing a potential mid-execution? I don’t know why you are advocating for this position. What value is there in clearing a player most people wouldn’t execute anyway?

[InsidiousLemons]

if asteria is fake she is almost certainly defending her scumbuddy. if she's gonna clear a random person why not pick someone other people TR'd more universally?

Isn’t there a lot of value in clearing a potential mid-execution? I don’t know why you are advocating for this position. What value is there in clearing a player most people wouldn’t execute anyway?

this is in the context of her being scum and faking a VT check. not saying it's a good idea or beneficial for town

[InsidiousLemons]

And if alive, you’re probably going to get a 1v1 at that point. It’s almost inevitable. Would the Scum risk that? I don’t know.

you lost me at this part. if who is alive? 1v1? would the scum risk what?

If we leave Asteria alive, don’t execute there. And the Scum decide not to shoot there tonight because they believe the non-consecutive, right? Say we miss with every execution, but Asteria is still around. If the Scum don’t shoot there, they very likely put themselves in a situation were Asteria picks a player and they come back as not Vanilla Townie. Since we have specific claims from players, and we have a sense for the guns and who has them, that’s almost as good as a red check. Almost. That puts the Scum in a tough spot. That’s all I’m saying.

okay, i think i get what you're saying. what course of action are you advocating based on this?

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: andante

You know, I actually understand this.

[Andresvmb]

Cause literally everyone on the Asteria train keeps saying she's flipping neo, I don't feel good about it... ahhh

no i dont think she'll flip nea. i'm saying that even IF she does, that's not a total loss

The one thing I do worry about is that the Scum are somewhat forced here to shoot the Neopolitan before Night 3. The problem is that if we don’t find any Scum at all, then we’re in ELo by then. Which is also a bit the genius of the play if coming from Scum. And if alive, you’re probably going to get a 1v1 at that point. It’s almost inevitable. Would the Scum risk that? I don’t know.

2 normal games come to mind here which is my main motivation in voting asteria here - although rn im fine exploring other players to gain more info as a tunnel gives us nothing

You know, let’s. Let’s not execute Asteria. I also think Pooky is Town. What do you think?

[Andresvmb]

UNVOTE:

[Andresvmb]

despite all this, i have to admit that on a gut level, their crusade against andres feels more like town tunnel vision than anything else.

@Asteria, if you knew I was Town, would this strike you as TMI’ish?

[Andresvmb]

experienced players do not complain about other people using too much logic and too little emotion. the list goes on.

I’ve been thinking about this. I actually think a lack of emotion, or too much reliance on logic, is more Scum indicative than not. Town screw up all the time. I give convoluted reasoning on the regular. All you have to do is read any one of my completed games to see that. Town have incomplete information, and they make assumptions and take leaps of faith. They don’t have a choice. Scum on the other hand have all the information. They know who is Town, and who is not. So they can afford to make arguments that appear air tight, and not feel much frustration or anxiety because they know the answers. They know whether a vote gets them closer to their win condition, or whether it puts them in a harder spot. I don’t think Andante’s tell is silly. In fact I thought it made some sense.

I’ve been re-reading your ISO, and I just thought I would post this. Because I do find your detachment somewhat Scummy.

[Andresvmb]

and there are reasons to read andante as plausibly town, but the posts he cites aren't examples of the ones i see

This is fascinating to me. Insidious has been pushing Andante aggressively for a bit now, explicitly stating that they’re engaged in lazy and terrible play for instance. But then, they say that there are reasons for seeing Andante as Town, but they don’t go into that at all (and I would point out that earlier all they said was that they had been reading Andante as Town on “gut”).

Andante, i'm curious how 823 makes you feel

seconded. to my knowledge they still haven't responded to this post. their repeated refusal to read and confidence that they won't be voted out for it does feel more like town to me though, based on gut. not sure how common this type of play is from either alignment, but it's ballsy

And then again, they repeat that on gut they could be Town, but don’t switch their vote.

—

I just don't think it's smart to eliminate a claimed tracker D1. And I also think his scum partners would've 1) helped with a better crumb, and 2) told him not to claim at E-2 or whatever it was

I am telling you right now, if there is 3 maf, he is not a town tracker

what's the logic here?

Something tells me that Andante wouldn’t have shot RMH, but Insidious might have.

—

In 2183 you say that you never pushed for Dragons, but you definitely left yourself open to voting there, so that’s a bit disingenuous:

i've been on the fence about STD -- posts like 1650 feel like AtE more than genuine input, and their defense of their reactionary voting by pointing out that they hadn't voted me or VFP (?) is a very weak one. but they still don't feel like the best D1 exec to me, and this flash wagon on them reeks of scum opportunism.

[Andresvmb]

so vfp is town unless we have a DkKoba asteria vfp house party exactly

like the more i think about it the less of a stretch this seems lol. is the wifom turning my brain to mush or is this just a holy trifecta of scum

And this speculation just seems really Scummy to me.

[Andresvmb]

I’m just going to vote here for now.

VOTE: Insidious Lemons

[osuka]

agreed. i wanted to see if you'd try and fabricate something more directly town AI. i've just read through hT3's posts in the game of his you linked, and while i agree he is much more active there than he has been here, he only had about half as much catch-up to do. combine this with the fact that he's a (supposedly) 13-year-old kid who's playing multiple games at once, several of which he replaced into and has to catch up on, and i really don't think it's that unreasonable to read his posting thus far as demotivated/burnt out town (piss-poor though that posting may be). 2914 is a bit more confusing to me now.

@osuka can you explain a bit more why reading T3's meta swung you so strongly when, by your own admission, meta doesn't usually have that effect on you? what did you see in that game that andante and i are missing?

p-edit mafdoc!pooky isn't entirely out of the question to me. i've seen maf PRs intentionally stand out and attract attention D1 in the way pooky did in order to allay accusations of trying to fly under the radar.

meta is usually shit because so many things factor into how someone plays a game. maybe they're having a shit couple of weeks, maybe they're very busy with school or work, maybe they just got dumped by their SO. who knows? meta is typically worthless with the notable exception that after having played with people for some period of time, you might be able to get a very indistinct "feeling" for someone's alignment, which is what i have with andres here

that said, what swung me in this particular case is the fact that t3 is not putting in any effort into this game, to the point where im quite literally supporting a policy lynch, and when you contrast that to his game from _a week ago_, he was actually actively scumhunting and conversing with several people. not anywhere close to spamming the thread, but still a night/day difference when compared with the absolute shit-tier, stunning display of complete incompetence or indifference he's showing in this game

[osuka]

I find it a little weird VFP doesn't think to question Asteria at all... like, sure you're VT and someone guessed correctly that you are, just feels like VFP has no doubt with Asteria, so I'm not so sure she's actually neo

that being said: town points to VFP for

not

referencing the above-quoted conversation in response to this attack

why does this get town points? i'm following your case and i have zero problems with it so far

[osuka]

i kinda dont really want that responsibility cuz I could just be wrong.

I just want to know what every1 is seeing in Asteria's play that makes them want to kill her even when she's claiming a Neop

she claimed in the weirdest way possible, and she's barely made any cases so far. like 90% of her posts aren't actually original and she just parroted random people for the entire first day

like seriously who goes "vfp is vt", only to have vfp go "asteria is lying" and immediately afterwards say "i'm vt for the record"? then she goes "oh well i'm not sure why he thinks i'm lying because he really is 100% vt, by the way here's my pool it's everyone that hasn't claimed"

[osuka]

it feels like she's genuinely scrambling to find footing after being thrown a slight curveball, and if you're a PR with a result on vfp you don't do that

[osuka]

i never said she definitely gets shot, but point taken.

i mean you said she'd be not a very useful town PR cuz she'd get shot at night

but getting shot at night is pretty damn useful? helluva lot better than needing to use an elimination on them tbh

like i said, point taken. i'm not even voting asteria right now. let's go through the options here

1) asteria flips nea
VFP is conf-VT and there is a non-zero chance scum immediately seizes the opportunity to NK him because of that fact. we lose ~1 nea result and scum doesn't have to spend a NK to make it happen. the worst outcome, but not a terrible one if VFP lives. even if he dies, that's an extra day's worth of GS results/vig shots.

2) asteria flips scum
VFP is now all but confscum after the whole reaction test thing. we get 2 scum for the price of 1, which is a pretty damn good deal.

now what we have to decide is which of these 2 is the more likely outcome. i'm torn between them, but you guys are beginning to sway me towards viewing #1 as more plausible than i'd thought.

p-edit @koba why

i think that 2 is likely enough that asteria is a good exec today. i'll even go ahead and say that it's more likely than the first

[osuka]

it looks like that slot somehow managed to only make shit posts so far! those are not to be confused with shitposts, which are not shit.

This is my favorite post all game. Next time I try to be sarcastic, I hope I have the ingenuity to come up with something like this.

that's what i'm here for ;)