Mini 2206 - Deja Vu Reincarnations

[Tammy]

I'm actually reading so I can give a solve and find out how bad my takes are lol

[Tammy]

The major one is the argument that since a wagon that the "townbloc" wants is stagnating and can't get any traction is evidence that the person being wagoned is scum which makes their read that much more confident that the person is scum is W.T.F? It's just a circular confirmation bias loop.

Reading infinity's post on page four I see this argument was a preset argument that I'm guessing is based on the number of scum there are. I still think it's a bad and shortsighted argument because they're still going to be held accountable the next day.

[Tammy]

ugh the low info argument. How I loathe thee let me count the ways.

[Tammy]

I mean just in the case of the amount of ink that's been spilled on not mafia so far in the game there's a shit ton of information.

But even without it there's still a lot of information by virtue of having two flips and an entire days worth of discussion at the start of day two anyway.

[Tammy]

I have no technical opinion on the not_mafia plan as I've not played this setup so not thought about what would be optimal. I just hate the no info argument a good 95% of the time it's made.

(and unless I'm daft, the argument isn't let's get rid of not mafia at all costs, but let's consider it and if we don't have a better option consider it strongly?)

[Cabd]

Having played this setup, it's a perfectly valid plan. And even if you don't go through with it, this setup means that very large waves are made to cover a buddy, so if your target is guessed correctly you can read the tea leaves... and the absence of waves gives you a read, too.

[fferyllt]

Nacho has played the setup, too. He and not_mafia, though not in the same game.

They both have gone through it from the town perspective.

[unwnd]

Nacho's choice to N_M policy isn't a bad one in my opinion. I didn't dig too deep into the mindset but I do know that N_M is a variable that isn't easily determined because of the way he chooses to (not) play. At worst-- You lose a townie who wouldn't be overtly town nor play for points, and at best you killed a scum which gets you a point.

Spoiler:

The true irony of it all is that N_M is scum after all!

[fferyllt]

Oh! and momrangal played it before, too. Also as town, in the game Nacho and I hydra'd in.

[fferyllt]

Welcome, Nachomamma8!

[fferyllt]

There are many apologies and much wailing happening in my DMs atm.

[fferyllt]

Now that Day 1 has ended with Nacho's flip I can say that I was having massive, unpleasant flashbacks about Day 1 of the 2013 running of this game. Nacho and I (Sangres hydra's first game) had a strong (and correct) scumread of the pirate mollie/Andrius hydra off mollies play on page 1 and 2 of the game.

A few of the other town didn't believe our read was real or had other reasons for scumreading us, and we were put at E-1 for several hours. It was a fluke of timing (scum player who should have hammered us was asleep) that we survived to put out a reads list, and the reads list itself convinced enough town that we might not be scum. Town went on to elim the mollie/andrius hydra at the end of Day 1.

Anyway, this Day 1 felt like how that game's Day 1 could easily have gone.

I imagine Nacho also thought a lot about the previous game, and wondered why his play this time wasn't enough to turn the reads around.

[Nachomamma8]

Definitely flashbacks of 2013 for a majority of this game. Am ultimately satisfied with my play at the end of the day - I've felt really blah and crappy about mafia recently so it was nice to have a game in which I felt like I was doing well... even if I got mislynched Day 1.

[Tammy]

4 out of 5!

Had those 4 since early game. That one was a battle between a couple maybes.

[fferyllt]

Welcome, petapan!

[fferyllt]

I'm going to allow spoilers starting now. Let's see how spoiler tags hold up.

[petapan]

[petapan]

nacho being obvtown was my legitimate, pre-role PM read, and i don't know how well i could have explained it, but i definitely tanked my defense for strategic reasons

[petapan]

there was actually legitimate contention in the scum PT about whether i should be the sacrifice, which i thought was craziness

[petapan]

Spoiler:

i definitely did not anticipate how much bloodlust there would be for n_m today, but i think ultimately the outcome for the day was likely 1-1 regardless, and NM being essentially a unanimous vote target means there is much less to read off than if i were to be in there and people had to react to me. i think the optics this way round are better

[Tammy]

Spoiler:

I was kinda thinking that you guys might save house vft last night and get rid of not mafia today. But I had vft and not mafia as my first two scum reads on page one due to how vft reacted to nachos original obvious joke then proposal and discussion. And their continued focus on it and nacho was super suspect. So I thought that you guys might save vft to avoid that obvious partnership when not mafia got taken down.

[Tammy]

Spoiler:

though with many clearing scum for the reasons they are, which just shows how weak the information argument is, probably means you were the better choice.

[petapan]

Spoiler:

I was kinda thinking that you guys might save house vft last night and get rid of not mafia today. But I had vft and not mafia as my first two scum reads on page one due to how vft reacted to nachos original obvious joke then proposal and discussion. And their continued focus on it and nacho was super suspect. So I thought that you guys might save vft to avoid that obvious partnership when not mafia got taken down.

Spoiler:

vft is by faaaaaaar the deepest of anyone in spite of that and people seem not keen to re-evaluate, my play was in part designed to make them look better. i think in particular with nm, there was such a baffling level of resistance from multiple players that no one in particular is going to take the blame for it

also my hammer was obviously a scumclaim and half the town would have known it

[Tammy]

Spoiler:

I was kinda thinking that you guys might save house vft last night and get rid of not mafia today. But I had vft and not mafia as my first two scum reads on page one due to how vft reacted to nachos original obvious joke then proposal and discussion. And their continued focus on it and nacho was super suspect. So I thought that you guys might save vft to avoid that obvious partnership when not mafia got taken down.

Spoiler:

vft is by faaaaaaar the deepest of anyone in spite of that and people seem not keen to re-evaluate, my play was in part designed to make them look better. i think in particular with nm, there was such a baffling level of resistance from multiple players that no one in particular is going to take the blame for it

also my hammer was obviously a scumclaim and half the town would have known it

Spoiler:

Yeah the hammer makes a good point. I think it was a good safe house overall. I've just been banging the vft and not_maifa are obvious partners since page one that it seems obvious to me, but wouldn't to others since almost everyone else is reading them as town for some reason and that's easy for me to say as a spectator.

I had notscience as a scum read early on and the only only reason I decided he was town was because of how smug he was when he thought he caught nacho. I disliked his posts for the most part, but I just didn't think that the way he was congratulating himself on catching nacho was likely to come from him as scum. Also, he mentioned more than once I think that if not_mafia was his partner he'd leave him alive so that the could lolhammer whenever and I don't think he'd be that cheeky to say about his partner.

So, uh does not_mafia only make actual posts when he's scum?

[petapan]

Spoiler:

So, uh does not_mafia only make actual posts when he's scum?

Spoiler:

seems to depend on how into the game he is, he did it as town in a normal and absolutely tilted flavor leaf out of the game, it was fucking hilarious