Newbie 2061 | Views of Tallinn | Town wins

[marcistar]

are you giving up t3 please dont give up

[Pearofclubs]

are you giving up t3 please dont give up

Could be giving up, could be caught scum trying to appear self sacrificing as a last ditch attempt to look townie.
Either way, I'll have my notes on T3 transferred to a more readable format soon.

[lendunistus]

Newbie 2061 Official Vote Count 3.0

T3

(2): T3, Meuh

Not Voting

(4): Lukewarm, marcistar, Meuh, catboi, Pearofclubs

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-05-06 16:00:00)

lazy votecount because i’m tired

[Pearofclubs]

So here we are, Day 3. To recap on what's changed...

Meuh

is officially in the clear. The notion that a Rolecop would not use their ability night one is absurd.
I am officially no longer 100% clear. Still mostly, as it makes sense that VFP would push me in order to figure out the identity of our PR by seeing who defends me or claims as a result.
And we are left at this point with three main suspects: Catboi, Tori/T3, and Ink3ro/Lukewarm.

We've been all over Luke and Catboi already, but there were some troubling behaviors on T3's part that have stuck out in my mind, so I spent the night poring over his background. Let me share what I've found...

First of all, Tori. While it's not within T3's control, we have to take his predecessor into account. Torii posted only eight times on day one, and managed to look inconsistant, very nervous, and sorta scummy in those eight posts. He gave reads with no explanation whatsoever and changed his opinions frequently. 80 82.

T3's main contribution day one was to come into the game after Norwee's wagon had begun, and immediately distance himself from it without giving any real reason why. His reads shifted on Meuh 350 352. He opposed the Norwee wagon 400 but then hammered him in the middle of a discussion between him and Catboi. 415

Day 2 begins with him trying to narrow down the PR's. 431 Catboi called him out on it, but N-M rebuked that

while lying about not being jailkeep.

He went from defending me, 477 504 524to voting for me538 to "Flashwagon Pear" 637 without much explanation.

Then there's his interactions with Sama/VFP. He defends him 474 477 563 and is defended by him 769. As soon as VFP became the main target of the day, he pushed to eliminate him ASAP, calling it an automatic win. 718. 728 In fact, he encouraged an elimination before Marci finished her post! [723]post[/post]

Further, he was a big proponent of the idea that there were three potential scum slots, with VFP backing up that claim 690. He excluded himself from the potential scum every time he discussed it. I think he liked the idea that people were fixating on "VFP, and either Catboi or Luke.". VFP's support for this in his language supports them as a scumteam, by narrowing our vision and making sure that we only talk about those three, and only think about those three, helps VFP/T3 win by leaving us in an either/or situation today after getting rid of VFP when we should be looking at three slots.

So that's my case on T3

[T3]

Cool. Then vote me.
VFP when he was about to get limmed said to lim catboi tomorrow no matter what. Because he would then flip scum that would clear catboi. But the problem is heknows he will be limmed. So why would he say that? Unless he is trying to clear his partner.

[T3]

They, oops.

[Meuh]

Cool. Then vote me.
VFP when he was about to get limmed said to lim catboi tomorrow no matter what. Because he would then flip scum that would clear catboi. But the problem is heknows he will be limmed. So why would he say that? Unless he is trying to clear his partner.

You have to understand that your exact train of logic is very easy to anticipate for scum, though. I don't really see it as that complex of a play to purposely focus on a townie as a mafia member in order to make it look like they were trying to give them towncred, and ultimately make them scummy.
Plus VFP applied pressure on Catboi before the very end, and bussing was not a viable option for scum, so overall VFP's fixation on Catboi makes me want to elim him less.

[T3]

Do we all agree Luke is town by VFP interactions?

[Pearofclubs]

Cool. Then vote me.
VFP when he was about to get limmed said to lim catboi tomorrow no matter what. Because he would then flip scum that would clear catboi. But the problem is heknows he will be limmed. So why would he say that? Unless he is trying to clear his partner.

Looking to end every day early is not good townie behavior. Maybe you think this'll persuade people to not elim you today? Being all self-sacrificing? Or, sure, maybe you are town. At this moment I think you're a better shot than the other two.

Regardless, that argument is a tall glass of Very Berry WIFOM™, since maybe he did that for the reason you're saying, or maybe he did it

in the hopes that people would think that it was misdirection

, and thus incorrectly suspect Catboi. Either solution is just as easily the case. So it's not helpful.

[Pearofclubs]

Also, for what it's worth, Catboi defused VFP's push on me as soon as he made it.
I don't feel like that would be a good angle for scum trying to suss out power roles using pressure on me.

I mean, I personally think Luke is likely town. If you flipped green tonight I'd probably be looking in Catboi's direction.
But mainly I think that VFP was

perfectly happy acting like there was nothing left to solve, and the pool was only him catboi and luke.

It's play to win, after all. The three of them getting all the attention is enticing if you're the last scum standing.

[Meuh]

Cool. Then vote me.
VFP when he was about to get limmed said to lim catboi tomorrow no matter what. Because he would then flip scum that would clear catboi. But the problem is heknows he will be limmed. So why would he say that? Unless he is trying to clear his partner.

Looking to end every day early is not good townie behavior. Maybe you think this'll persuade people to not elim you today? Being all self-sacrificing? Or, sure, maybe you are town. At this moment I think you're a better shot than the other two.

Regardless, that argument is a tall glass of Very Berry WIFOM™, since maybe he did that for the reason you're saying, or maybe he did it

in the hopes that people would think that it was misdirection

, and thus incorrectly suspect Catboi. Either solution is just as easily the case. So it's not helpful.

I mean yeah ending day early isn't townie behaviour, but not really scummy either. Can't really fault T3 for that. I have no issue with ending this day early, we wouldn't be missing out on much. We're on a 3 person POE and most people just seem to be swinging the same way.
Yoooo we should just endlessly argue about WIFOM that sounds very productive

Also, for what it's worth, Catboi defused VFP's push on me as soon as he made it.
I don't feel like that would be a good angle for scum trying to suss out power roles using pressure on me.

I mean, I personally think Luke is likely town. If you flipped green tonight I'd probably be looking in Catboi's direction.
But mainly I think that VFP was

perfectly happy acting like there was nothing left to solve, and the pool was only him catboi and luke.

It's play to win, after all. The three of them getting all the attention is enticing if you're the last scum standing.

Yeah, if T3 flips green I'd probably be leaning towards Catboi for tomorrow, although I could swing both ways really, I'd need to reread some of their posts to form a stronger opinion
The mafia must've been desperate to get a second townie elimed yesterday, so yes VFP just throwing T3 out of the window is behaviour I could see from partners, especially since (I think) most people found Catboi and Lukewarm to be more appealing elims, so it doesn't look out of the ordinary to make sure T3's safe.

[Pearofclubs]

I mean yeah ending day early isn't townie behaviour, but not really scummy either. Can't really fault T3 for that. I have no issue with ending this day early, we wouldn't be missing out on much. We're on a 3 person POE and most people just seem to be swinging the same way.
Yoooo we should just endlessly argue about WIFOM that sounds very productive

Actually, I think in this context trying to throw in the towel does manage to appear scummy.
Think about it. We're actually in a precarious situation.
Today there are six of us, one scum. We miselim someone right now, marci dies... four of us remaining. That's MeLo, and the only thing we'll have gained is that T3 wasn't the right choice.
Sure, I'm confident in T3 being red, but what if he's not?
Continuing discussion in this situation is townie. We want as much data to sift through tomorrow as possible.
Limiting information makes it harder for us to make a confident choice.

That being said, I would love to argue endlessly about WIFOM. I could go for a nice red today

[T3]

me vs catboi or Lukewarm in MELOwould mean I am limmed an lose the game.
Meanwhile I see that catboi vs Lukewarm catboi the mafia will be limmed and we will win. Honestly fmpov it's autowin.

[Meuh]

I mean yeah ending day early isn't townie behaviour, but not really scummy either. Can't really fault T3 for that. I have no issue with ending this day early, we wouldn't be missing out on much. We're on a 3 person POE and most people just seem to be swinging the same way.
Yoooo we should just endlessly argue about WIFOM that sounds very productive

Actually, I think in this context trying to throw in the towel does manage to appear scummy.
Think about it. We're actually in a precarious situation.
Today there are six of us, one scum. We miselim someone right now, marci dies... four of us remaining. That's MeLo, and the only thing we'll have gained is that T3 wasn't the right choice.
Sure, I'm confident in T3 being red, but what if he's not?
Continuing discussion in this situation is townie. We want as much data to sift through tomorrow as possible.
Limiting information makes it harder for us to make a confident choice.

That being said, I would love to argue endlessly about WIFOM. I could go for a nice red today

how much time we get to discuss is irrelevant to scum!T3 if they're being elimed anyways though? don't really get that point
i don't find their behaviour today to be too scummy, you can disagree with their logic but i can see town!T3 playing today this way
idk about you but I feel like 7 days will be long enough to decide on an elim on a 2 person pool tomorrow, I understand that we don't lose anything by talking more, but meh I can't really care for potentially getting a

tiny

bit more done today

Still significantly scummier than others cause of yesterday though

oh also Marci might not die cause rber means she's not getting results ever anyways

[catboi]

I think it's probably just T3 here and that ends tyhe game, what T3 isd showing here klooks more like scum defeatism (see: the newbie game where i replaced into a slot that had scumslipped) than town resignation. I'm fine with moving things forward but want to take a look at VFP's ISO just to see if there's anything I missed.

[catboi]

(I also think that frankly he should be seeing me as obvtown given VFP's treatment of me, but I'm incredibly selfish)

[catboi]

T3
iN3krO

Meuh

NM

marcistar
catboi

Pearofclubs

Regardless I'm pretty sure this is just a win.
Meuh not visiting makes them town here as they would have been visiting for either the kill or the Rolecop.
Pear being protected means town.
2 PR claims not CC.

This means we have 4 town out of 7 going into night 2.
Scum are only possible to be in me, T3, Catboi, and Lukewarm.

I don't think T3 is scum here so the pool narrows down to me, Catboi, and Lukewarm with T3 as the additional.

NM dies tonight, we have 3 town and a clear on someone. Scum flip today means that we have 4 town out of 6 players.

There's really nothing to try and solve here.

I can't really conclude anything here. It's obvious to me he was trying to townshield his partner, but he never really justified either read. He was much more vocal about T3-town. Scum tend to be less voical about townreading their partners, but then they don't townread their partners that often, either. If you assume that T3 being elimmed is an autoloss for VFP though, it makes sense that he'd adopt this strategy.

Meuh is always town here for me.
Marci lim works for me and I think we just win with Meuh, T3, and iN3krO as town here.
Marci scum makes NM town and iN3krO is plausibly the partner for 513
Marci town just means 2 scum in Pear, Catboi, and NM

Some light shade toward in3.

Hopefully, everyone sees the discrepancy here. So it seems to me, like he was making up a story to try and get people to agree with his push at the time, and did not realize that he had already made up the exact opposite story. This reeks of scum trying to manipulate town.

This is a really good post and a good spot.
If you read the context to Pear's posts they are even worse. It's the before and after having NorwegianboyEE as scum.
Just adapting the comment to suit their agenda.

I

think

this is scum latching on to a point made by a townie. Again, scum

tend

to not be so synchronous in their pushes and he doesn't need to reinforce a read his partner is making - this looks like him wanting to to buddy up to lukewarm a bit.

Idk, the fact that he was so insistent on T3-town makes it very wifom-y but I think the vote from in3 would be surprising if it were on a partner. There's nothing that I can say leads me to confidently think one way or the other. I'm fine going with T3 still.

[T3]

Outed scum knowing he is outed scum and throwing shade on to highly townreas town. Nice.

[T3]

No way a scum Lukewarm says: I'm not too sure about this vote and then hammers a partner.

[catboi]

Hypothetically, what is scum lukewarm supposed to do in that situation?

[marcistar]

No way a scum Lukewarm says: I'm not too sure about this vote and then hammers a partner.

how are you so sure hes town? from what you've been saying it seems like it.. but theres nothing clearing him so far..?
things like you've been mentioning can seem either or tbh.
-
he could've easily wanted to not vote him, but then get told to... so im confused why ur so confident

[Pearofclubs]

oh also Marci might not die cause rber means she's not getting results ever anyways

That's a good point, I hadn't thought of it that way.
Might still be her, since you, me and her are the three most comfortably townread.

[catboi]

Anyway, I'm okay with voting T3 if people want to move forward. I would be greatly annoyed if N_M didn't jail Lukewarm when they were his scumread. Does anyone have anything they want to do?

[Pearofclubs]

Anyway, I'm okay with voting T3 if people want to move forward. I would be greatly annoyed if N_M didn't jail Lukewarm when they were his scumread. Does anyone have anything they want to do?

That would be a very traditionally N-M thing to do, wouldn't it?
This game he's been putting a good bit of effort in

Hrm. Just out of curiousity, if he jailed the roleblocker, and the roleblocker blocked him, what happens in that scenario? Obviously that didn't happen.

[catboi]

I think the roleblock supersedes the jailkeep but it's somewhat of a grey area. Ask the mod. They changed an old newbie setup because of a conflict like that.