Mini Normal 2205: RotITGBSMoD [game over!]

[clidd]

But considering that tomorrow is ELO, I still intend to reassess my impressions periodically (to reduce the chance of error).

So, yeah, I'm open to listen to opposing opinions.

[VFP]

the interaction between clidd and asteria feels off to me but i cant really put my finger on why. clidd was more accepting of asteria's explanation than i expected him to be

[clidd]

Her explanation was plausible to me, but that doesn't make the slot town ^

[InsidiousLemons]

I wonder why you were scumposting on the last page before engaging with me.

it's this post that pings for me. there's an implication here that asteria has become a townread because of her explanation

[Asteria]

I wonder why you were scumposting on the last page before engaging with me.

Where do you think I was scumposting?

i really dont think its clidd bc their timing was just towny and not necessary since we were already limming in PR claims before they claimed

What do you think of them preferring this PoE to the VT PoE though?

I'm willing to go into VT poe but I understand where clidd is coming from.

Wait what do you mean you're willing to go into the VT PoE?

I mean i am willing to vote outside of PR claims today

Oh ok, what I meant when talking to clidd was scum claiming a PR so they can be part of the PR PoE just to be clear

I wonder why you were scumposting on the last page before engaging with me.

Where do you think I was scumposting?

Spoiler:

20 pages in one day

We know for fact that one of the claims is lying now. We have 4 guns claimed and 4 guns total. I don't think Lemons and Koba are both lying so I'm thinking we are dealing with a traitor. If one of them is lying I would bet Koba. Lemons is in a good position right now as scum and this would be a really risky move. Especially since if we do elim me or koba and find out they are town, Lemons would be in a very bad position.

i'm willing to call this a scumslip. in trying to curry favour by defending players she knows to be town, scum!asteria has revealed that she is mentally counting herself as armed mafioso rather than as her real claim. town!asteria does not believe that koba and i are both telling the truth, because to believe so necessitates the belief that none of the mafia are armed. and we know she didn't just miss the andante flip because she directly quotes anya's "rip andante" message earlier in the same post.

sound reasonable to anyone else?

What?? How does what I said not make sense to you from a town PR perspective. You should be in the exact same boat as me if your claim is true.
Me - gun
Andante - gun
Lemon - gun
Koba - gun

That's 4 guns. Scum has to have at least 1 gun. I don't think both Lemon and Koba are lying so that leads me to believe scum only have 1 gun (

because 1 of them is lying but

not both

.

) Which means doc and traitor or doc and doc.

i'm willing to call this a scumslip. in trying to curry favour by defending players she knows to be town, scum!asteria has revealed that she is mentally counting herself as armed mafioso rather than as her real claim. town!asteria does not believe that koba and i are both telling the truth, because to believe so necessitates the belief that none of the mafia are armed. and we know she didn't just miss the andante flip because she directly quotes anya's "rip andante" message earlier in the same post.

I’m not following this logic at all. Walk me through it like I was a child.

we have 4 gunned PR claims:
- Andante as gunsmith (confirmed)
- Asteria as neapolitan (unconfirmed)
- DK as weak vig (unconfirmed)
- me as role cop (unconfirmed)

knowing that we have 4 guns in play, the possibilities are:

- Andante + 2 gunned mafia + {Asteria, Dk, or me}
- Andante + 1 gunned mafioso + {Asteria and Dk, Asteria and me, or Dk and me)

Asteria is approaching this from the perspective that 2 people are telling the truth, which puts us in the second scenario. she asserts that these 2 people are myself and Dk, which would make

asteria herself the liar.

what sense does it make for a real Neapolitan to make this mistake? did she forget what was in her role PM? did she forget that andante died? not likely. what's more plausible to me is that, because

in her own mind

she is already accounted for as the gunned mafioso, she forgot to account for herself again in the PR pool.

it is impossible for nea!asteria to believe that Dk and I are both telling the truth, because that theory refutes her own claim.

the only way for this to have happened is by a massive blunder of logic, and the explanation for that blunfer that makes the most sense to me is that asteria forgot to account for herself in the PR claims.

The part I bolded is

exactly

what I said. I never said you and Koba are telling the truth. I said I don't think

both

of you are lying. Meaning I think 1 is telling the truth and the other is lying. Meaning I don't think both of you are scum and we're dealing with 2 gunned mafia.

So if Asteria is telling the truth, given your Role Cop Claim, DkKoba has to be lying. But that’s it no? Who else has claimed anything?

This is what I'm thinking. Lemon's claim doesn't make sense coming from mafia wanting a believable fakeclaim when they know I exist

But I don’t see how Asteria is implying that they’re Scum with the assumption that DkKoba and you Insidious aren’t both lying. If only one of them is lying, doesn’t scenario 2 still allow for Asteria to be Town? That’s what I’m not getting.

Like Asteria didn’t assert Insidious and Koba are both telling the truth, but I think Asteria was saying that they think only one of them is not. That’s different than what your interpretation is.

I’m trying to be careful with this because Scum slips are rare, and this one doesn’t feel like one at all to me.

Yes! And this is exactly what I said. Idk why Lemon's chose to interpret it as I think both are telling the truth when I said I don't think both are lying. Makes no sense

Frankly we need to sort out between {Asteria, Koba}. No other execution makes any sense, and VFP pushing Anya is absurd. If we get it right, we mostly likely clear 3 other players and put the Scum on the ropes. Take it that Insidious is telling the truth. I already had Pooky as very likely Town so I’ll buy the clear, which now 2 different players have confirmed in different ways (remember, Andante also cleared them of a gun and now we know they’re not a Doctor. They would have to be strictly Traitor and I’m not seeing that). So, Pooky would be cleared, and the two other gun claims would be cleared. That leaves a really narrow pathway to victory for Scum.

Unless Lemon's and Andres are scum together, I'm back to reading Andres as town

she asserts that these 2 people are myself and Dk, which would make asteria herself the liar.

Like yeah I think this assumption is incorrect. You should have asked to clarify before I think. I don’t take Asteria’s statement to mean that she thinks you and Koba are both telling the truth. The statement absolutely leaves the option open that 1 of you is lying, just not the both of you.

you're totally right. disregard everything I've said about this being a scumslip, i simply misread "i don't think both koba and lemons are lying" as "i don't think koba and lemons are lying"

I'll accept this but I'm still leaving everything I already typed up just to show my pov

Oh wait wait. No. The Neapolitan gets a Vanilla Townie result right?

I have a result telling me VFP is a vanilla townie so VFP is conftown from my pov

Wait so how do we ever not execute between Asteria and Koba here? What other execution even remotely makes sense? If Koba flips Scum, that’s good, we have a circle of trust of sorts and the Scum is outside. Unless there’s no Traitor and one of the PRs is Scum.

We vote Koba. Scum will nk me anyway because they don't want me clearing another townie or finding someone who isn't vanilla town. If I don't die overnight then I'll accept being eliminated because that makes 0 sense

Why does it make it false when the claim can get 2 town PRs mis lynched and just win the game?
It's not genius it's pretty basic scum play.

Well I doubt that Insidious is lying about their actual Role then. So the Scum have a N2 Role Cop, a Mafia Doctor, and a Role Blocker?

If this is the case then we still have a lie within the gun claims. I know I have a gun, Andante is confirmed to have a gun, and Lemon's was going after Koba right? So that doesn't make sense either.

Normal Guidelines
A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:

gives a "guilty" result to Cops, an "innocent" result to Gunsmiths, and a "Traitor" result to Role Cops

Does this support our claims? A cop (me), gunsmith (Andante), and role cop (Lemons)? Then Koba is the odd one out?

There's something I want to check about Lemons and this is my reminder to do that after I catch up (also want to check clidd slot after the detective claim)

I called out lemon and now today theyre claiming role cop not on me which is BS

This is what's making me so torn on Koba or Lemons. Lemons felt so town to me the whole game but now their target just makes no sense

I feel like lemon claimed here so that they could resist my legacy read on them but also in a way that doesn't lock them in a cc with either PR

I could see this an I could see Andres' thing about Lemon's looking for the traitor

You’ve also used the “Scum slip” attack twice now. Once on Andante, and now on Asteria.

Look, it’s time to call bullshit. I will sheep VFP and execute amongst {Anya, Insidious}.

I'm ok with this.

asteria/dkkoba + t3? + bear??

Here’s the thing. This is a fascinating solve by Anya. Don’t you think? It heavily implies that a Traitor is present in the game. By this stage, you have a claim by Andante that there’s 4 guns, Koba is a claimed Weak Vig as per 2032, Andante is a claimed Gunsmith (but not in the solve, as per 1182, 1212), and Asteria is a claimed Neapolitan (2134). With a Mafia Doc, you know that either 2 of Asteria/Koba/Andante is Scum, or 1 is with a Traitor present. But they don’t seem to entertain the alternative at all if I’m not wrong. So if you TR Andante say, wouldn’t you speak about the entire situation, and how it could mean that both Asteria and Koba are Scum together?

i didn't see the 4 guns thing from andante

asteria and dkkoba were going for each other at the time and i felt like 1 of them was wolf

You didn't see the 4 guns claim? That was long before this post with a lot of discussion around it?

Also: I'm a town one-shot detective who got a negative result on Pooky during the N1 (he didn't try to kill anyone that night).

This may be useful for the setup spec ^

If this is serious we have 5 town guns claimed??

this implies lemon/asteria are scum

Well for me it implies Koba/lemon are scum

At this point is might be worth Anya, Osuka, and Andre claiming.
Since everyone is already outed and there's most likely 2+ scum in the PRs.

Yep, we're basically massclaimed now anyway

I don't think it's possible for us to be playing in a 0 gun scum world because that would be massive trolling by Datisi and the NRG.

I'd like to mass claim to figure out what the setup is and where the best elim is today.

I am a Vanilla Townie.

I'm gonna guess we have 2 lying. 3 is a lot

@Everyone voting me: of all the claims so far besides maybe Koba, I'm the one scum want to NK. Just leave me for scum to get

Asteria [5]: DkKoba, Salsabil Faria, Andresvmb, InsidiousLemons, Anya

Asteria is the least likely to be Scum. Three of the Gun claims are on this wagon.

Green Crayons [5]: PookyTheMagicalBear, VFP, Robert M Hunter, Andante, T3

And this wagon looks pretty wholesome.

I want these in my iso to remind me to look over VCs. I think the gun claims are solvable if we incorporate interactions and VCs and everything else we know

I don't think it's possible for us to be playing in a 0 gun scum world because that would be massive trolling by Datisi and the NRG.

I'd like to mass claim to figure out what the setup is and where the best elim is today.

I am a Vanilla Townie.

clidd gun claim came last which is probably town dunno why he'd wanna put himself in that poe if he's wolf

also salsa was clearly town when she reacted to osuka

i'm vt

The PoE of guns is almost as bad for scum as the PoE of VTs at this point
I don't think holding on to salsa's reaction that early in the same is really viable anymore

Is a solve with Lemons + Asteria + Osuka possible?

Just gonna point out I'm semi-pushing Lemons and if we didn't have this mess of gun claims I would be pushing Osuka like I did last day

i'm willing to call this a scumslip. in trying to curry favour by defending players she knows to be town, scum!asteria has revealed that she is mentally counting herself as armed mafioso rather than as her real claim. town!asteria does not believe that koba and i are both telling the truth, because to believe so necessitates the belief that none of the mafia are armed. and we know she didn't just miss the andante flip because she directly quotes anya's "rip andante" message earlier in the same post.

I’m not following this logic at all. Walk me through it like I was a child.

we have 4 gunned PR claims:
- Andante as gunsmith (confirmed)
- Asteria as neapolitan (unconfirmed)
- DK as weak vig (unconfirmed)
- me as role cop (unconfirmed)

knowing that we have 4 guns in play, the possibilities are:

- Andante + 2 gunned mafia + {Asteria, Dk, or me}
- Andante + 1 gunned mafioso + {Asteria and Dk, Asteria and me, or Dk and me)

Asteria is approaching this from the perspective that 2 people are telling the truth, which puts us in the second scenario. she asserts that these 2 people are myself and Dk, which would make

asteria herself the liar.

what sense does it make for a real Neapolitan to make this mistake? did she forget what was in her role PM? did she forget that andante died? not likely. what's more plausible to me is that, because

in her own mind

she is already accounted for as the gunned mafioso, she forgot to account for herself again in the PR pool.

it is impossible for nea!asteria to believe that Dk and I are both telling the truth, because that theory refutes her own claim.

the only way for this to have happened is by a massive blunder of logic, and the explanation for that blunfer that makes the most sense to me is that asteria forgot to account for herself in the PR claims.

oh yeah i didnt notice that. good catch

it's almost as if ive been saying that slot is scum. that sounds familiar to me but i can't figure out why for the life of me

Interesting how Osuka is jumping on a "scumslip" that has already been proven to be based on incorrect logic...

how does lemons know i am a vanilla townie !?!?

Lemons got vanilla on you right? And Andante got no gun.

i agree with a lot of the points being made on dk and by play they are a very solid scumread for me. what i'm getting stuck on is that, as multiple people have pointed out, if there's a "real" vig they would have almost certainly cc'd or managed to kill someone by now. and if there is no other vig, then we have to ask ourselves: does a setup with a red herring mafia doctor really make it into the normal queue? my strong suspicion is no, but i'm unfamiliar with the approval process so i'd like to hear from people who are

I'm also unfamiliar but this makes sense. Why a mafia doctor if there's nothing to protect themselves from

Anyway...

So at this point all 4 PRs should give 2 favoured scum in the PR claims.

I agree but I need some time to think on this.

I do know outside the PR pool I'm leaning Osuka/Anya though

wait nevermind that second point i keep forgetting the traitor knows who the mafia are i promise i'm not trying to dumbtell

p-edit ah fuck okay lemme reread

Someone tell me if this dumbtell is viable because I'm about to start considering it when reading Lemon's

That said I also think Koba's role makes the most sense with a mafia doctor and I don't see why the TPR pair would be a non-con nea and a night 2 role-cop. Also my mixed feelings on both those slots makes me think clidd is probably just scum and claiming in hope of more TPR elims.

Well seeing that I'm the last to answer that top question I'm gonna go ahead and say Clidd+Lemons are the scum. I feel best about clidd though. The reason I'm saying Koba is the town is because why would town have 2 investigative roles against a mafia doctor instead of a vig and an investigative. It just mechanically makes more sense.

Here ^

The formatting of your posts reflected me as visually polluted and not exactly an approach that would help you understand the game, which is something that I classify as one of the criteria for scumposting. Not saying you were trying to be busy, but the intention seemed more to demonstrate that you were doing something (considering the number of multiple interactions) than to establish an informative catch up that would help you absorb the information and clear up your doubts (which would be a more objective/organized approach).

There are also some suggestive points of tonality in the way you commented on some topics, but the most ''rational'' reason, without entering the emotional field (which is difficult to debate), is still the impression above.

Oh that's just how I catch up. I'm sure I caught up like that before in this game if you skim my iso. I just write down whatever comes to mind as I read up

I'll try to check those things I wanted to tonight or tomorrow morning and conclude who I think is scum within the PR claims

[clidd]

I wonder why you were scumposting on the last page before engaging with me.

it's this post that pings for me. there's an implication here that asteria has become a townread because of her explanation

3853 is just a reflection in relation to the transition of posting before and after the interaction with me, not that she had become a townread.

[DkKoba]

can we get a vc?

[clidd]

Correction: 3827, not 3853

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: clidd

asteria is scummier by play but tonight is the night when the non-con neo gets shot if town so i'd prefer not to lim there today

[Andresvmb]

I’m VLA until tomorrow here.

[Anya]

congratulations on the birthday tomatoes

[InsidiousLemons]

thanks! i'm officially a washed-up twentysomething lol

[clidd]

After a third reread, I'm comfortable with this vote:

VOTE: Asteria

[clidd]

I wouldn't mind voting on Lemon either if there is no interest on the vote above.

[clidd]

Although I'm primarily leaning Asteria atm.

[DkKoba]

VOTE: Asteria

[clidd]

[DkKoba]

I already said i scumread the slot dont give me those eyes

[Datisi]

vote count 3.08

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, Andresvmb

Asteria [2]:

DkKoba, clidd

clidd [1]:

InsidiousLemons

not voting [4]:

osuka, PookyTheMagicalBear, Asteria, VFP

mod notes

~ andresvmb is v/la until tomorrow

flavour

[VFP]

Happy Birthday Lemons!
We won't lim you today at the very least!

I'm pretty busy until this evening.
I do have a theory that I'm holding until tomorrow but as a whole I think I prefer Lemons for the lim with Dk second for particular reasons. I'll do the post of the cons, pros etc later.

[Datisi]

prodding osuka.

[clidd]

Hum.

[clidd]

I would not be against a political elimination of Dk (if consensus), but that would be more "punishing errors" than "eliminating a slot that I think is scum".

[clidd]

I mean, the retract on the claim is not good, but I don't see a practical reason that justifies the risk for scum!Dk. I imagined something like 7 scenarios that could perhaps suggest a beneficial line of action in the medium to long term, but they all involve a more active participation of scum!Dk to work. Apathy and loss of interest are uncharacteristic of scum planning (in the context of their engagement with the current gamestate).

[clidd]

It's quite difficult to judge what's going on in Dk's head tbh, regardless of alignment, but scum!they would probably be more inclined to avoid instances of AtE to increase the chance of survival, or at least maintain a minimum level of engagement with the game to extend the advantage of miselims (something that would fit into the scum!Dk scenarios I mentioned earlier). The absence of these elements makes the approach if scum, coming to D3, inconsistent.