Newbie 2062: The Hubble Telescope - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-10

The Hubble was in the news yesterday: "Astronomers using the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope have imaged a Jupiter-sized, still-forming planet around the orange dwarf star PDS 70. This is the first time that an exoplanet has been directly imaged in the ultraviolet (UV)." More here.

Andante

(3): RationalMadman, T3, Rathe

orctin

(2): Clasko, JacksonVirgo

RationalMadman

(1): Andante

Not Voting

(3): orctin, Demainer, Ivyeo

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: May 8, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-05-07 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

orctin v/la until 5/2
-

[Demainer]

Jammer Andante. Andante should townread how hard I am ohshing and offering to vote me off tomorrow. As Scum I'd want to night kill her, even if Cop would catch me it's safer to force Cop not to investigate outside me and potentially have a win D2.

I am telling you this. If Andante flips Doc, you vote me Day 2.

I'm still convinced that you're town, and I strongly urge you to rethink this. Even disregarding my town lean on andante, just think whether rational scum would fake claim doctor. It's not likely at all, could be a possible play if we have a newbie/newbie scumteam, but andante was nowhere near the pressure needed to claim. Scum are laughing their asses off right now at this shitshow, and watching this on the sidelines and pretending like nothing's happening.

VOTE: orctin

[Demainer]

I need to amend the analysis a bit, since scum can narrow down setup possibilities to 3 instead of 9.

If scum have a roleblocker, then fake claiming friendly neighbor reduces the chance of cc to 2/3. 1/2 cc scenarios involve cop/doctor cc. Cop claim is not good because doctor is in play, so scum can't kill cop anyway. Doctor claim is good. The other scenario involves mason, which is not good. So, only one part of one scenario leads to a good result gambit-wise. Claiming doctor will lead to cc 3/3, meaning it's a suicide mission. 1/3 scenarios involve doctor cc, which is good. 1/3 leads to jailkeeper cc, which is meh. 1/3 leads to mason, which is not good. So, 1/3 scenarios make sense gambit-wise. Overall, friendly neighbor makes the most sense for a fake claim here, unless scumteam adamantly want to make it a gambit, which is not useful at all in either case.

If scum have a rolecop, then fake claiming tracker leads to 2/3 chance of cc. Both scenarios involve tracker cc, which is good for scum. Claiming doctor leads to cc 3/3, and 1/3 involve doctor cc. 2/3 leads to friendly neighbor. Not good, whether it's for hiding, or for a gambit.

If scum have goon-goon, then faking either friendly neighbor or tracker will lead to 2/3 chance of cc, 1/2 from cop, 1/2 from mason. So, not good, but also not too bad from a gambit standpoint. Claiming doctor is suicide, 3/3 chance of cc, 1/3 from cop, 1/3 from jailkeeper, 1/3 from mason. Not good at all.

So, claiming doctor only slightly makes sense if scum want to go for a risky gambit play, and have a roleblocker. If scum have rolecop or goon/goon, then faking doctor makes no sense at all, unless they have no idea what they're doing.

[Demainer]

If orctin is v/la, then

VOTE: clasko

[Demainer]

Andante as scum would absolutely have motive to fake their role as an important PR there, especially the defensive one.

This is insane. If a scum dies D1, scum almost always loses. Why would they risk this instead of using it as a last-resort when pushed to E-1.


Honest question

ok yes

[Demainer]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

[Demainer]

You can't be this stupid, seriously

y would a doctor ever claim

i agree, town doc should never claim in that situation, but scum fakeclaim is even less likely because there's better fakes out there.

[Demainer]

we definitely have at least 1 scum in clasko t3 orc ivy.

[Andante]

she is not at all actung how she would as Doctor in this scenario. She isn't even insisting you all vote me

Why would I demand everyone vote you? Rathe/T3 are acting like textbook scum in this situation

[Andante]

demain, what are your thoughts on Rathe and T3 still insisting we vote doc out?

[Demainer]

i don't think insisting on voting out the doc alone is ai, just like claiming doc doesn't make much sense in that situation whether it's real or fake. in fact, it would make more sense for scum to avoid elimming the doc for town cred.

it might be slightly scummier because rational was leading the way for the most part, so scum wouldn't have to openwolf alone. i can easily see t3 and rathe blaming rational tomorrow for misleading them, then forcing another miselim.

but i don't think both of them are scum. which is why we definitely have 1 scum in the quiet players.

[RationalMadman]

Sorry, when I said Cop, it could be Tracker too.

[RationalMadman]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

It is if she thinks she's being voted off anyway and doesn't care to towntell and risk her partner going down first.

[Demainer]

rathe is hard to read. still null on him. some of the points he made were a bit disingenuous, it's clear that they're wrong, but he still pushes them. but again, i don't see this as ai, since scum se wouldn't want to deliberately make themselves look bad either. suboptimal plays are nai.

t3 is the scummier of the two, he hasn't made any real attempt at pushing things, and comes off as a bit fake. i did like his push earlier, scum would probably have been much more cautious, and simply have sit on the sidelines instead of actively shitstirring. but his position on the doc claim, while he's offered one at least, does not give me town vibes.

if there was a scum in rathe/t3, i would lean towards t3.

[RationalMadman]

we definitely have at least 1 scum in clasko t3 orc ivy.

If it is, It's Clasko or Ivy.

[Demainer]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

It is if she thinks she's being voted off anyway and doesn't care to towntell and risk her partner going down first.

which she was not. she could be, but it's not likely at all.

[RationalMadman]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

It is if she thinks she's being voted off anyway and doesn't care to towntell and risk her partner going down first.

which she was not. she could be, but it's not likely at all.

She has not, even now, answered a damn question I or T3 has asked her about the game. It's all waaa waaaa I'm town I'm going to dieee oh mooo I vote Clasko Oh nooook I vote T3 oh noooo it's RM!!! Oh nooo Rathe hella sus pls halp me I am innocent Doc

[Demainer]

i can see two newbies getting scared and immediately fakeclaiming in a panic. possible? yes. likely? no.

which is why, if we have a cc available, please claim.

as explained above, a fake doctor claim must involve a cc in all 9 scenarios, so if there is one, the pr must claim.

[RationalMadman]

i can see two newbies getting scared and immediately fakeclaiming in a panic. possible? yes. likely? no.

which is why, if we have a cc available, please claim.

as explained above, a fake doctor claim must involve a cc in all 9 scenarios, so if there is one, the pr must claim.

By the way, if it's Masons or Neighbours with a PR it's actually PERFECT aa she outs both at once.

[RationalMadman]

I did never say ahe made the best series of plays here, best play is to towntell in the first place. I say her play is sacrificing herself to force her partner to have both or one PR that can be nightkilled revealed

[Demainer]

it outs the setup for scum, not the prs. they still need to hunt for pr

[Andante]

I think it's down right funny you won't consider for a second I'm real and outed cause I was so done with all your accusations of me being scum, no. I'm scum who is trying to fish prs which won't happen cause it's me + a cop/tracker out there.

[Andante]

VOTE: T3
I feel like this will flip scum

[T3]

Andante's entire reads have been based on who scumreads her and she has had zero input outside of that. Then when pressure is applied she defaults to AtE, and then a PR claim.

[RationalMadman]

it outs the setup for scum, not the prs. they still need to hunt for pr

You mentioned neighbor setups.