Open 810 | Aliensitter Needed! | Mafia wins

[GrandpaMo]

Spoiler:

Optimal play is for baby to target Allen and Allen to aim for scrum.

We all pseudoclaim a psych inno D2 and maybe later day phases on the basis of how kills pan out. psych claims immediately if has guilty (although letting pseudoclaims happen is reasonable for extra analysis fodder). Mafia likely use the roleblocker to kill n1 as they are most valuable. They also likely don’t target with their roleblock N1, as it is greater utility as the game proceeds.

No more mech discussion, including clarification about scum action optimization or WHY I would share such action optimization is appropriate on D1.

So I have a spicy tinfoil theory. I think that professor Drapion is not actually a drapion at all and is a robot attempting to pretend to be a drapion for the purposes of making achieving a professorship more impressive. I know, I know, this is all very farfetch’d, but I do have evidence.

Firstly, drapion has been established to evolve at level 40, which as everyone knows is a very rare occurrence in a game of mafia. Usually you have to have several weirdos running conflicting gambits to even get close to level 10 play. I find it very unlikely that someone with no completed games has managed to pull of a high enough level maneuver to evolve.

He COULD be a naturally occurring drapion, as drapion have been encountered in many places. This is exceedingly unlikely on the basis that there have been 0 wild drapion sightings in Central Park. Indeed, there aren’t even any confirmed drapion sightings in the greater New York area. Occams suggests that such a large Pokémon would have been spotted at least once during its migration.

Furthermore, when I began quoting music from Pokémon soundtracks, drapion remained ignorant of the context and didn’t respond to his supposed people’s music. I find this very suspicious.

Thirdly, when preparing to battle Mena, drapion mentioned that his claw was ready. Claw: singular, not plural. As everyone knows, drapion as a species has two claws, four spiked limbs and a scorpion like tail. This lack of biological familiarity with his supposed species is highly suspicious.

Finally, it is common knowledge that very few Pokémon have learned to speak proper English. Among those who have, a predilection towards using their own species name (such as the famous Team Rocket Meowth) is still common. drapion has shown a distinct lack of these behaviors. Clearly, the preponderance of evidence shows: Drapion must be a robot.

Now Bingle, got any other early reads?

Mena slightly scummy, pooky low priority, your slot has tells but I need to wait for the psych evaluation result to determine if they’re scummy or towny. Dann strongest townread. I’d be voting lukewarm if I weren’t voting gypyx, but I think the gypyx wagon is more likely to be spicy atm.

You?

So through these analytical posts... I don't think mafia goes out in their way to actually give out on what town does. Mafia specifically in this setup where it is their job to figure out PRs does not give PRs help unless its direct manipulation to favor a specific result. However, seeing what Bingle has said, I doubt there is a world where Bingle actually does this as mafia. Looking back at their older games, they seem the same as their townplaystyle. Also their continued aggression and coherent reads are okay, there is some I disagree with however and I will explain later.

Now Bingle, got any other early reads?

Mena slightly scummy, pooky low priority, your slot has tells but I need to wait for the psych evaluation result to determine if they’re scummy or towny. Dann strongest townread. I’d be voting lukewarm if I weren’t voting gypyx, but I think the gypyx wagon is more likely to be spicy atm.

You?

I liked the way Mena went about my slot when they voted me. It doesn’t seem to be “faked” per say. So I would slightly TR Mena there.

I personally like the way VFP has handled the thread. Not much content but it felt genuine. More of a gut read then anything but I trust it at least for now.

T3’s entrance wasn’t entirely bad but it was definitely not a great entrance. I’ll probably watch this slot and it’s progression towards Pooky.

As for Pooky themselves, well. I’m not really sure where to put them. From the majority of what I seen, their agenda is just Sheeping Mena.

I think your first big post (the one with the Psyc Check thing) felt towny. I want to vote with you for now and see where it goes and see further progression towards your slot.

As for Gypyx, I don’t know.
His first post seemed like jealous of me taken his spotlight.
His other posts haven’t really done much.
I believe 3 were Filler and the other was a turn down towards your Psych Plan Bingle. (If I remember correctly.)

Going back and giving these actual insight of reads (since they are being pushed). I agree with the Mena townread, mafia is less likely to push and interact with people. They were the first people to give a read and I actually gave a comment on that early on. Your read on Gypx feels artificial meaning that you tried to spew any information to make Gypyx look mafia alligned. If you are mafia, you could just be bussing, or making Gypyx (someone who would town) look scum as possible. But that conclusion is very debatable and not coherent until EoD or whatever stage in the game we are.

Oh if it’s hectic it’s not so bad

I thought prof was a newbie (prof do you have any pronoun preference?)

Shadow Claw

I do, He/Pokemon

VOTE: Professor

Claims he is a pokemon, but he can talk. The first pokemon I think of that can talk, is in fact,

A CRIMINAL

Checkmate.

This is a really weird entrance. I think something that should be noticed. They come into the game with a read already done being made on Prof. They vote them and probably make some random meme excuse as mafia. I will explain later with another read on why Lukewarm is my scumread here.

VOTE: professor drapion

This might actually be scum lol

Looking at post 41, this is a very towny entrance from Mena and like I said why I townread Mena from early game. Mafia is more inclined to just stay back and let town push and interact members. However, they could be experienced enough to just do that as Mafia. But usually from the games I have played in, this is what I have been through and seen and it is usually right; early pushes (especially the first player) tend to be town. Also something to remark, is that if Drap is scum this is the only reference I see them scum in early game and that is in post 35. I replied to Mena hoping for an answer on this, but no answer sadly.

VOTE: gypx

guys gypyx and bingle are scum together

Honestly, this is a bad pairing for this reason. I doubt mafia busses day 1 in this setup. Bingle is hard pushing Gypyx and while everyone is pushing Drap, Bingle is staying on with a read that they think Gypyx is scum (look at post 99 where they they say a Gypx BW is more spicy implying wanting it more). This is a weird enterence too but at least its better than lukewarm's enterence. You are still null since you haven't done nothing that scummy right after.

Hmmm. Too many scum reads, not enough time. Monkey get your ass in here, I have need of you.

Lukewarm, do you have any non-pokemon related thoughts on any players yet?

Yeah. I am actually suspicious of Bingle making the suggestion for the psych to automatically out a guilty result. Because imo, that seems more likely to out the sitter then to out mafia.

I think that they know that too, because they were in the Open Setup review of the game that the mod linked to in the first post, and there they talked about the Psych having "a fake inno and a fake guilty on a questionable reliability investigative."

So from my PoV, Bingle came out with some anti-town advice, and then said for no one to question them

Let me give you a quick rundown on how Bingle do.

Bingle will argue the optimal strategy for town as he sees it, regardless of his alignment. Bingle is good at mechanics speak. Bingle is very good at mechanics speak. Bingle is widely regarded as among the best at mechanics on site. Bingle has said, specifically, that there are a bunch of things that are mechanically optimal, and that we should not discuss mechanics speak further for the rest of the day.

Either, Bingle is telling the truth that this is a protown maneuver or Bingle is crippling his ability to lean into mechanics speak, setting himself up to be questioned thoroughly on not D1 (historically the day when Bingle wants to be questioned in order to establish himself), and taking a harsh departure from what is a tried and true strategy Bingle has used as both town and scum for literally years to a pretty good result in a lobby that is at least half full of people who know Bingle pretty well.

Feel free to scumread me for it (I in fact enjoy scumreads, they are delicious) but we are done talking mech for D1.

The amazing "Feel free to scumread me for it" is the most towniest IF AND ONLY IF it used after a analytical post has been made. I have also seen this in games and I do it to and they are town. This is because of your mind saying "hey, I am writing this for you as town and I want you to read it as me for town. Why scumread me when in my perception, what I am doing is town." Basically some psychology of perception and how you perceive vs the other party perceives it. You get more townpings for this. No need for mafia to write that much on optimal gameplay.

I am actually a little confused how the psychologist role helps us in this set up.

If he can get a "can kill" result on the baby sitter, but gets a "not able to kill" result on the cowardly mafia + any mafia that has already committed a kill, then on day 1 wouldn't a "can kill" result be a 50/50 chance at being the babysitter or mafia. And then starting on Day 2, they will basically be getting "is babysitter" and "is not babysitter" results, right?

That makes me question this advice given by Bingle

Optimal play is for baby to target Allen and Allen to aim for scrum.

We all pseudoclaim a psych inno D2 and maybe later day phases on the basis of how kills pan out.

psych claims immediately if has guilty

I do have to comment on this though:

@Luke:

REGARDLESS OF HIS ALIGNMENT

; you should always treat Bingle's mech talk as gospel. It is accurate and indeed best play for Town. End of discussion.

Note: The above is not limited to this game. It does apply here but is a general rule of the thumb.

I actually hate this from Almost50. It almost seems like you are scumsiding to seem that you are agreeing with them as scum while Bingle is town. Maybe a pocket who knows...but what was the point of making it seem like we all should listen to you? Mafia and town will make up their own conclusions and now you are leaving Bingle with no reaction testing or any pressure of the person they were asking this to, for example, Lukewarm. I will explain later on why Lukewarm has been acting a certain way and the reaction actually to this post seems very very off.

Town:

Dannflor
T3
PookyTheMagicalBear
Almost50

Needs more content before being arbitrarily shuffled into a pile:

GrandpaMo
ManWithNoName
Pine

Scum:

Lukewarm
VFP
Menalque
ProfessorDrapion
Gypyx

Yes. All nine of those are genuine reads with genuine reasoning. I'm not going to bother explaining most of them at the moment, and they're loosely ordered based on how accurate my gut says they might be.

Okay. So the only real townread I agree with you here is T3.

I also think VFP and Mena are town.

VFP is playing way similary to the game I have played in and has so far not been focused on interactions with anyone else. I don't seem being mafia with someone. Mena, I already explained the towny posts. And T3 has just been also the same as VFP; playing similiary (and I know I am meta reading and sometimes it is a pain in the ass but their actual interactions same with VFP have been towny.) FWIW; the only time VFP is mafia is if they are mafia with T3 (and extra third mafia) which I doubt this is the case.

The more null reads is Pooky, Danna, Gypx, Darp.

Pooky is playing way different than what I have played with them before in Newbie 2059. And honestly it feels weird to me. Their constant non-argumentative status is bringing no information to town and thats why they are null... I need to hear more information on this. Danna I already have explained above.

And okay so Gypx and Darp; it seems everyone is pushing those two. Honestly I could them either or flipping scum and I actually think there could be scum in between. I already explained more on Darp and Gypx has played way more towny on Gypx but Darp could also be falling in the newbie trap. Third mafia could be in that pair assuming Pooky and Danna are town.

And scumreads consist of Lukewarm and Almost50.

And these reads; I have explained their scummy entrances and I will further exemplify Lukewarm's scumread on a later post that I have added but basically Bingle gives info against Lukewarm because Lukewarm pushed the narrative of why psych outting in which Almost50 made that post and I gave my reason on why they were scum above btw!! But after that post from Almost50, lukewarm instantly backs down. And it seems like mafia tried to push this narrative where they didn't want psych to out because they could set up a CC later hence why Almost50 tried to signal them to backdown; it would be more of wifom to say it in day chat.

I could be overreaching on this pairing but there is definitely scum between and both could be paired through my reasoning.

I am actually a little confused how the psychologist role helps us in this set up.

If he can get a "can kill" result on the baby sitter, but gets a "not able to kill" result on the cowardly mafia + any mafia that has already committed a kill, then on day 1 wouldn't a "can kill" result be a 50/50 chance at being the babysitter or mafia. And then starting on Day 2, they will basically be getting "is babysitter" and "is not babysitter" results, right?

That makes me question this advice given by Bingle

Optimal play is for baby to target Allen and Allen to aim for scrum.

We all pseudoclaim a psych inno D2 and maybe later day phases on the basis of how kills pan out.

psych claims immediately if has guilty

I do have to comment on this though:

@Luke:

REGARDLESS OF HIS ALIGNMENT

; you should always treat Bingle's mech talk as gospel. It is accurate and indeed best play for Town. End of discussion.

Note: The above is not limited to this game. It does apply here but is a general rule of the thumb.

I have never played a game with Bingle, so I guess I will take your work for it for now. His advice doesn't really come into play until day 2 anyways, so we can talk about it then.

This is the post that I was referencing on why Luke could be scum. Them backing down after pressure.

VOTE: Professor

I know that he was my RVS vote, but now I actually have a scumlean on him

Also look at this... "RVS vote but now I actually scumread them" Sounds like a blantant way to BW on this vote. Tell me why do you scumread Drap, is it because everyone is? I don't see any reason for you to be voting them right now.

what's the tl;dr version?

Under the post 138 quote of that ^

[ProfessorDrapion]

@Pooky
@A50
Can I have both of your Top 3 Scum and Town please.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Actually hold on I’ll see if I can ISO some of it.

[T3]

I do think Lukewarm had a good defense I'll have to think on it.

[GrandpaMo]

(A50 said he SR’s VPN not you, if that makes things more clear)

He put me as the solve. Probably just to see my reaction. My gamesolve is Lukewarm/A50/ >>> There is a world where A50 is paired with Pooky just because of openly defending. That means that would make Gypx and Darp both town which is a weird read honestly. I still need to get

why isn't Pooky in your main solve if a50 being scum relies on associatives with em'?

Because pooky was being scumread on individuality, then I saw that pooky quote which is surface level logic. I am now obligated to townread pooky just because they are starting to play the similar way I inteneded. I still want to hear from Pooky's reads.

pedit: yea i agree t3 thats why I am slowly just backing up and seeing other worlds where the people in my scumpool could be scum.

[GrandpaMo]

actual scum with other people**

[GrandpaMo]

i don't read posts

you were voting me? otherwise nope it wasn't, just not seeing the stuff that you mention

and well yes

you're saying there's better case material on you out there, so spill the beans my man / pokemon / robot pretending to be a pokemon, what are those posts?

pedit : not reading the pedits, that was a response to 314

bad rxn imo

[ProfessorDrapion]

So this is what I got:

Pooky Top 3 Town
1)Mena
2)A50
3)Bingle

Now I would like to have:
Pooky Top 3 Scum


As for A50,

Top 3 Scum:
VPN, Gypyx and GrandpaMo (His Solve at least from Post #162)

So the opposite.

I would like to request to have Pooky’s Top 3 SR’s and A50’s Top 3 TR’s.

[GrandpaMo]

Actually hold on I’ll see if I can ISO some of it.

You won't really find anything other Pooky just meming with Menq and Bingle and A50 being offended by me scumreading them and puts me in their solve with VPN and Gypx lol

[GrandpaMo]

can we get a prod on the afk here? that could also be a viable scumslot that we haven't seen yet

[GrandpaMo]

specifically pine and man?

[ProfessorDrapion]

I do think Lukewarm had a good defense I'll have to think on it.

Ok now here’s what I got for you.

Top 3 Town: Bingle, GrandpaMo, (?)
Top 3 Scum: Lukewarm, Pooky (Soul Read), (?)

[ProfessorDrapion]

specifically pine and man?

Hasn’t Mena posted recently?

[GrandpaMo]

specifically pine and man?

Hasn’t Mena posted recently?

man not mena

[GrandpaMo]

I do think Lukewarm had a good defense I'll have to think on it.

Ok now here’s what I got for you.

Top 3 Town: Bingle, GrandpaMo, (?)
Top 3 Scum: Lukewarm, Pooky (Soul Read), (?)

are those ur reads?

[ProfessorDrapion]

I do think Lukewarm had a good defense I'll have to think on it.

Ok now here’s what I got for you.

Top 3 Town: Bingle, GrandpaMo, (?)
Top 3 Scum: Lukewarm, Pooky (Soul Read), (?)

are those ur reads?

I said for “you” as in T3.
So no they aren’t mine.

[ProfessorDrapion]

specifically pine and man?

Hasn’t Mena posted recently?

man not mena

Oh damn.
Yeah just looked at player list didn’t even realize ManWithNoName was in this game.
Hasn’t even posted at all.

[GrandpaMo]

specifically pine and man?

Hasn’t Mena posted recently?

man not mena

Oh damn.
Yeah just looked at player list didn’t even realize ManWithNoName was in this game.
Hasn’t even posted at all.

yea same, I had to go to player list to check in and realized man didn't even post

[Almost50]

how can pooky be in any solve when pooky is town af

Let ME be the judge of that. (Obviously referring to Open 807)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what r u talking about a50

you did not catch me :3

I should've just pushed SS out like I pushed Arte out :<

[VFP]

I changed my mind on Drapion.
VOTE: ProfessorDrapion

[Almost50]

@Pooky
@A50
Can I have both of your Top 3 Scum and Town please.

I only have VFP as a

confident

SR. I am still debating Gypyx, you, Pine & MWNN (the one that hasn't posted and seems to have flaked the site) as possible candidates. I also have Menalque in a "Menalque category" if that helps (that almost never changes today).

The other 6 are not exactly TRs either, but I don't have them in my possible elimination pool for today.

If you find this unsatisfactory I'd like to refer you to 187 second paragraph

[Almost50]

and A50 being offended by me scumreading them

Mate; I thought we went over this and were done. I am not offended by your read on me, I was offended by the tone of your post directed at me.

[Almost50]

can we get a prod on the afk here? that could also be a viable scumslot that we haven't seen yet

MWNN I think has flaked. In fact I

know

he did (and that was well before this game ever started or even filled in)

[Almost50]

what r u talking about a50

you did not catch me :3

I should've just pushed SS out like I pushed Arte out :<

Didn't I? I specifically made a HILARIOUS case on you as

precisely

the Traitor on D1!!

And I did fake a guilty on you the day before S_S shot you too.

You're just jealous of my superior intuitive scum hunting skills.